Beck Water

Thought this was interesting - a scorecard for who has been the most and least accurate with the rumors https://walterfootball.com/draft2023rumorsresults.php Spoiler: that Charlie Campbell guy is pretty good

Another assessment of Beane's trade-up habits, this one from TBN by Ryan O'Halloran https://buffalonews.com/sports/professional/nfl/bills/buffalo-bills-brandon-beane-nfl-draft/article_db2bf4ac-fe54-11ee-b5ab-47c3d31b4ca2.html The most interesting thing to me is that he rates Elam as a "push" resulting from a trade up. Anyway, it's an assessment based soley on the result (whether or not we got a great or a good player) and not on the opportunity cost (whether a great or good player might have been available at our original pick, and with the pick we used in the trade) Take it FWIW.

It depends a lot upon the context in which I meet them. If I'm just encountering them in passing, I wouldn't try to have a conversation. They have their schedule, I have mine. On the other hand, if we're near each other in the course of things for an extended time, I'll chat. Several years back we had a reserved camping spot next to a man who looked like he'd transplanted his entire Bills tailgating setup to a small state park on the Western shores of Lake Ontario - big Bills-themed canopy floored with Bills rugs, I forget what all else he had except a wife and several young kids who wanted to pet our Very Cheerful and Fluffy Dog. So of course after petting formalities were completed, we struck up a convo about the Bills and I asked if he ever hung out on Bills fan boards and mentioned TBD (he didn't). I've had a couple convos at airport gates and in line to buy fish From A Guy in the Virgin Islands, I don't recall if I mentioned TBD though. She's not a Keeper. Unless she makes REALLY GOOD wings that is.

I thought about starting a new thread, but it's appropriate here. Joe B starts his annual series on the draft https://theathletic.com/5430707/2024/04/22/buffalo-bills-2024-nfl-draft-files/ Some key points He compares and contrasts what Beane said in this presser vs 2022, when we traded up to draft Kaiir Elam: Joe points out the analogy to 2022, when top CB Tre White was injured and likely unavailable for the next season, #2 CB had left in FA, and we had a capable backup CB in Dane Jackson who had stepped up when asked (he makes the analogy to Diggs traded, #2 WR Davis left in FA, and Shakir as that capable 3rd WR: The result in 2022 was that the Bills not only drafted a CB, but they traded up to draft a CB. Joe B goes on to lay out Beane's track record as far as trading up: I will say that with the exception of Josh Allen where Beane steadily built draft capital prior to the draft and even worked a trade to move up 9 spots using a player, Beane's trade-ups are usually "use a 4th round pick to move up a few spots", not "Big Splash Trade Ups". Joe justifiably concludes that despite what he says, Beane is most likely to trade up based on past behavior. Joe does point out that the Bills are in a bit of a different spot this off-season. In the past several off seasons, most of the starting roster spots have pretty much been "locked down" prior to the draft, but this year, only 33 of 53 players returned. So IMO, there may be more chances for a 4th round pick to make the roster and contribute, making that pick more valuable to Beane and Beane less likely to trade it. Anyway, thought it was an interesting read, especially the analogy to 2022 and what Beane said before the draft about CB (praised the players we still had, pointed out his philosophy of build from the lines out) vs. his draft day actions (trading up for a CB) Edit: one of the things I like about Joe B even when I disagree with him, is that he's methodical and backs up his takes. In this case, he includes draft trade value info and assesses which teams would be plausible trade targets. I think the Athletic has some kind of cheap trial deal, or can be packaged with a Times subscription if one rolls that way.

I checked "coach" but I want to be the offensive/defensive assistant or QC assistant who self-scouts the team for trends, and scouts the upcoming opponents Not saying I'd be good enough, but all day with all the data would be my jam.

The problem with this "if Brady could just design plays that get him off the line unmolested" thing, is that we already have 3 guys on the roster who are great, if Brady could just design plays that get him off the line unmolested.

Shakir has high athleticism and a "standard"-ish height and weight for a WR. Skills like wicked breaks and jukes can be polished, and apparently Shakir spends his off season with Moulds polishing him. The main questionmark for him is that in the modern passing day since these measurables became publicly available, there's never been a boundary receiver with 29" arms. It's not "eyelashes" or "toes", it's a matter of the vocabulary of physical moves available to the guy when there's a DL with 31" arms grabbing him at the LOS or handfighting down the field.

Jesu, when you put it like that.....we need some receivers who can actually catch.

In the lab https://www.buffalobills.com/photos/in-the-lab-phase-one-of-2024-buffalo-bills-offseason-workouts#47cddda7-f3bf-49b7-b1fb-dbde801bb0aa Photo #22 Cam Lewis with no wrap and NO BRACE - whatever someone feels about Cam as a fan, ya feel good to see that Von Miller is participating

TIL the abbreviation emlos LOL Yeah, I was kind of conflating two different skills in my post A bit tired from gardening - @#$! Japanese anemones, those Greedy Guts. And I swear they put roots down like they're trying to go back to Japan, through the earth. One question is, can a guy learn not to be held up or jarred off his routes by physical play. We hope Kincaid can train for and work on that. We know he was a top basketball player in HS (National Champion AAU squad), which ought to help with that mindset. The other is, can a guy release off the LOS against press man playing outside. One of the skills Kincaid was said to have, and I see no lies, was "sweet feet" and the ability to burst into routes. That's one thing, the ability to do those things lined up outside, is something else. I do agree the Bills need someone who can do that (I think Mack Hollis can) and play WR with a higher degree of skill than, say, Sherfield who had his hands on that ball, dammit! (don't know that Mack Hollis can). Fundamentally, it seems as though on the Bills right now, all the receivers play best from the slot.

You know I agree with you on the Bills needing a boundry WR who can hold his own. But what makes that? Surely, Kincaid has the physical tools to be that type at 6'4" 246 lb with 32 5/8" arms? It's not unheard of - one of the things that makes TE like Kelce and previously, Gronkowski so dangerous was their ability to be physical back and actually push off in the guise of putting a hand out or hand fighting. It did show on his Draft Profile as a weakness - "Jarred off of his base by average contact" "Physical defenders are able to slow his routes." along with "Has enough speed to threaten vertically and across the field." Are the former, skills that can be learned, trained for, and coached up?

Oh, FFS. You said "I'm not sure what the point is". So I tried to explain. The false dichotomy between issuing an apology that isn't based on understanding the point, vs. "internalize and be eternally remorseful", is a bit much, don't you think? Ciao.

I'm looping back here because I watched it again, and this struck me, I want to know if it struck anyone else. Several times when asked about Diggs in an interview, Allen has said "I love him like a brother". Diggs has said the same about Josh, at least twice I think? Once on Up and Adams for sure. In this video, the videographer says "What's Up Brother?" Dawkins ("Seventeen for Life. I Mean That."): "Bro, what did you just say to me?" Shakir (Allen's hoped-for next fave target): "Don't Ever say that to me Again." Videographer to Dawkins: "Goodbye, Brother" (videographer screams as Dawkins turns back to go after him) Maybe they're riffing on Allen calling Diggs "Brother" and vice versa - "don't do ME like that!"

I mean, yes and no? In the plays we're talking about, Shakir is open BECAUSE the safety is glued to Diggs and Sherfield was open BECAUSE Diggs had 3 guys (I think) looking at him and the 2nd safety shaded to Shakir. Either Shakir steps up and becomes the guy they focus on and frees someone else, or we need a boundary guy the defense fears enough to blanket and leave Shakir open. The way I see it anyway. They don't have to be genius players, just guys who catch the football well enough and run routes well enough that DC's are "we better cover that guy or we're gonna look very stupid watching him WHUP WHUP WHUP into the EZ. Could they fear Hollins and Kincaid enough? One thing that struck me was how very physical the Chiefs DBs were being. They knocked the stuffing out of Cook a couple times and threw him yards off his route. Ditto Diggs, he was getting knocked around. Can Shakir handle that and provide enough of a threat? Can Kincaid?

I agree with your fear completely, as I think I've laid out elsewhere. I think McDermott's core defensive philosophy is to have a whole of "selfless guys" that work together and are far greater than the sum of the parts. I think that has shown itself very able to earn regular season wins and to be substitution-tolerant at many positions, but it has fallen short against the best teams playing at a frenzied level in the playoffs. In acquiring Von Miller and re-upping Tre White as well as in drafting Elam (to presumably upgrade from a "White plus a JAG" 2ndary), Beane and McDermott themselves acknowledged "we need a few stars". The problem is, they couldn't forsee both Miller and White derailed by injury (White repeatedly). So we need to set ourselves up to move on and reload, and part of that is shedding cap this season. [I think the jury is still out on Elam, but obviously for his first 2 years that didn't work out, either.] On offense, we need IMO 2 guys. Whether that's someone we draft or a late FA signing, or whether Shakir, Kincaid, and Cook take steps, can't tell you. I agree with you that we could still contend for a Super Bowl in 2024, but that will depend upon a few key points. One of them is getting a functional pass rush from somewhere, whether that's Miller returning to form, Rousseau and Epenesa stepping up, or a draft/FA acquisition. Another, I think, is whether Josh Allen successfully transitions from being the guy who directed 42% of his throws to Diggs and Davis (241 out of 579 including spikes and throw aways), to being the guy who takes the choice with the higher % of success just a bit more often. He alluded to that at the end of his presser and mentioned "conversation with other QB". It was noted that prior to 2020 when Josh took a big step to overhaul his throwing motion, he was said to have dug into several QB who had improved their throwing motion during their careers, and picked them clean about what he needed to do to improve in the course of a couple dinners. So I think that "conversation with other QB" is worth noting, and may be worth noting that Tom Brady is one of the QB Josh has spent some off season time with. While Brady has been public in loving Josh and wanting to see him win a SB, I'm certain he would not hold back if they spoke privately. If Josh has decided to dedicate himself to becoming a better "field general' and mental student of the game in the same way he dedicated himself to becoming a better rotational thrower of the football with proper hip-shoulder-arm sequencing, expect great things. Time Will Tell, but no longer having Diggs there clamoring for the HIM share of the targets may help.

Then let me spell it out to you once more. Above, you acknowledge that in fact, you were giving your opinions and thoughts and what you read into what Beane says, which you believe to be fair and logical. OK- but then, this is a discussion board, and others are entitled to disagree with your opinion about "modern NFL offenses", to think that in bringing up McCaffery and the 49ers you are bringing up a Unicorn, a Unicorn player on one of two modern NFL teams with a successful run-first approach that differs from the modern NFL offensive approach 29 other teams, and the one which asks the QB only to be a good decision maker and ball distributor (why Shanahan has found strong success with many different QB). Others can also disagree with your "fair and logical" reading into what Beane says. But then, to dismiss someone who tries to debate your personal thoughts and opinions with you, "you can argue with me all you want, but what I'm telling you is what I think the Bills are doing, and what in fact Beane TOLD us he's doing" "Argue with it all you like, but I'm just the messenger" and "However, once Beane says what he is thinking, i don't see much point in arguing" is logically fallacious, when much of your post is actually not derived from that Appeal to Authority. I don't want to whale a dead horse, but since you acknowledged that you were actually giving your personal opinion and thoughts about NFL offenses and observations about the Bills as well as what you read into what Beane said, yet still claim "I don't see what the point is", I thought I'd give it a go. You can be interested in discussing your opinion and thoughts and what you read into Beane's words, you can be disinterested in discussing your opinion and thoughts and what you read into Beane's words, but to cut off discussion by an appeal to Beane's Words as an Authority you now acknowledge you went well beyond, Eh. I'd be happy to accept your apology and I'm not gonna carry a bone or beat a dead horse, except if you're "not sure what the point is", it seems like "form without function".

Great find, thanks! JT O'Sullivan always worth watching. For those unfamiliar, O'Sullivan had a 12 year career as a journeyman QB with, I think, 10 or 12 teams. He was kind of the Nathan Peterman of his day, a guy who must have been "catnip for coaches" but couldn't get it done at the NFL level on the field, except he did start 8 games for SF 6 years into his journey (and threw more picks than TDs). Subscribe, you won't regret it. On the just-missed-the-catch to Sherfield on 3rd and 12 38:12 minutes into the video...O'Sullivan spends a long time painting the throw to Shakir in the middle as the better choice. I don't see it. Where's someone who knows their shite like @HoofHearted to put me straight? 2 deep safeties, one takes Diggs, one takes Shakir, and Sherfield is the correct read. Sherfield gets his hands on it. There is no reason that shouldn't have been a catch: a high degree of difficulty catch, but a catch. The next play he shows is the missed catch by Diggs. Yes, Diggs could and should have caught that if he's HIM. O'Sullivan points out, though, that Allen had a receiver (I think it's Shakir) "wide-ass open" in the middle of the field. Allen showed "his brother" some love, and it wasn't returned.

@Hokieman-ol7qh 4 hours ago " I can't get enough of the snarky commentary... "how bout your boy down here to the bottom throwing up the mailbox double covered"... lol "

That's actually interesting. These things usually seem to just recap the teams that were good the previous year. But it's omitting Houston, which was a division winning playoff team last year and looks to have been serious about making a run for it Cowboys, who had the same record as the 49ers and Lions I guess the feeling was the Bengals woulda been in it if Burrows weren't hurt so they get the "hall pass" from 2022? I won't be shocked but I will be

Did you mean "wary of"? I think that's exactly right. I believe Shakir is a very good player with a lot of promise, and should take another step this season and be used more than he was. I believe the same of Kincaid. But I still think to be a top passing team, we need a guy whose natural skillset aligns with playing outside, on the boundary. And I'm wary of Beane when he says things that align with what he said before the 2019 season, when he told us we'd kind of fill the #1 role by committee. It worked well enough for 10 wins, but we could easily have had several more if we'd had a player who was a natural match for the boundary role, instead of asking 5'11 John Brown to bring in 50/50 balls or get off press man and Robert Foster to be our deep threat.

Same.

I'm generally in agreement with you about the D. I see questionmarks at a couple positions, but I have faith in McDermott's ability to make it work. Anyone remember that we played the Miami game and locked them down with Rapp playing 100% of the snaps at safety? Didn't think so. I do think it's selling Samuel way short if that's who you're describing as a "gadget guy". He's been a receiver, and a generally rather consistent one. "Gadget Guy" McKenzie would still be on the team if he'd been racking up 60+ receptions/year and 600+ yds/year on the regular. If he and Josh can get on the same page, we should be able to have two guys who can play both the slot and outside, in Samuel and Shakir. And I wholly agree that we have big holes at WR, unless they believe Kincaid can provide a deep threat?

Ooh. I can't argue with the l2nd to last sentence, that I bolded. My personal belief is that what happens is McDermott and his D coaches skill at getting the most from whatever defensive roster they have, falls short when faced with the very best offensive players (and of course, missing 2 starters and a key rotational player with 2 more playing hurt, probably made KC and their fans grin like Cheshire cats) As far as losing Poyer and Hyde....it might be worth noting that Rapp actually started 4 games (1 for Poyer and 3 for Hyde), as well as enabling the rotation the Bills used to make up for Milano - on key passing downs 12-33% of the snaps, they would move Poyer into the box as a "LB lite" and have Rapp backfill at safety, to overcome Dodson's lesser abilities in coverage. And to my eyes, both Poyer and Hyde had fallen off quite a bit. I'm nervous about relying on Rapp at safety, but I also don't believe who we have on the roster now is necessarily who we'll go into the season with.

I share your concern about the defense, but I thought the defense was going to be a significant step worse last season, going into the season with great big ??? at MLB, without Von Miller, and relying on the highly intelligent, synergistic, but aging Dr Poyer and Mr Hyde at safety. And it wasn't. It was lights out to start the season, allowing us to be blissfully "Marked Safe from Hearing about How Many Points the Dolphins Scored" during Week 4. Then we lost 3 significant starting pieces by Week 4 and again, I was "oh *****, O better ratchet it up", but 4 weeks later we're trading for Rasul Douglas, we've signed Linval Joseph, and we've figured out how to platoon Tyrell Dodson with Jordan Poyer at LB to make up for the loss of Milano. So while right now I see question marks and gaps all over our D, I have a fair degree of confidence that as far as regular season goes, if you give McDermott a plate of intelligent NFL players with a leavening of talent, he'll figure out how to cobble together a functional NFL defense. I'll put it out there: I think we have 3 big questionmarks on offense. Questionmark 1 is, "will the OL be at least at the level it was last season?" That has 3 sub parts:"is Connor McGovern a capable C for the Bills"? "Is David Edwards the answer at LG?" and "Will Spencer Brown take a step as a pass blocking RT?" Questionmark 2 is, "who will the Bills start the season with, at WR?" Who will they get in the draft? Will they sign a FA after the draft? Beane's commentary about not seeing a glaring hole or needing a #1, is, I hope just pre-draft GM speak. Without Stefon Diggs, the Bills offense was good enough to get to the playoffs and run out of offensive gas. Questionmark 3 is, "What is Joe Brady's vision for the offense, and can he flex that vision to make the best use of the pieces we have?" That's the Biggest Question for me. it's clear from what Allen said, and how the team performed at the end of last season, he and his teammates are comfortable with Joe Brady. Brady doesn't have a lot of experience - 2 years as a Saints offensive assistant, a year as the Passing Game Coordinator and WR coach at LSU, 2 years as the OC of the Panthers (pretty bad offense, but maybe not his fault), then 1.5 years as the QB coach for the Bills and 0.5 years as OC. In his interview about 8:16 in, after praising the addition of Curtis Samuel, the development of Khalil, and Dalton and Dawson, Allen said "bringing in someone who pairs well with these guys...but really it depends on what we want to be as an offense, to see who's going to be the best fit, and right now I couldn't tell you that." Different ways to interpret that. I think it was Greg Cosell who commented on one of his OBD segments about Joe Brady wanting the offense to be a run-first offense. Based on what we saw at the end of last season, I can't fault that line of thought - the Bills had 331 rush attempts to 298 pass attempts after Brady took over, and had more rush than pass attempts in 5 of 9 games (2 more where it was even or within 2). I hope that's not the direction that Brady wants to take the Bills, because it seems like a waste of a QB who can make any throw to any part of the field, and whose strength has never been the short, precision passing game with YAC that run-first teams tend to rely on. It's also, unless we pull more RBs out of the air, a hell of a lot of wear and tear on that QB's body. During the first 10 games, Allen had 48 rush attempts or an average of 4.8/game; during the last 9 games with Brady, Allen had 83 rush attempts or 9.2/game. I'm hoping that Brady was leaning on the run to let Josh's throwing shoulder "get right", and to compensate for Diggs lack of contribution (whether he took himself out, was hindered by nagging injuries, or the Bills were deliberately leaving him out). Anyway, I'm more concerned about the offense at this point; although I don't make the mistake of thinking the players we have right now are going to be the ones we start the season with, I think Questions 3 and 1 will remain.

This is obviously a huge body of work. Props for that. I would like to respectfully suggest to McDermott and Beane that hitting on 1 out of 3 from the Florida Gators of recent years might indicate the need to fish from a different pond I know next to nothing about college ball, but I like the idea of a DT who made someone's "freaks list".