Beck Water

You know I agree with you on the Bills needing a boundry WR who can hold his own. But what makes that? Surely, Kincaid has the physical tools to be that type at 6'4" 246 lb with 32 5/8" arms? It's not unheard of - one of the things that makes TE like Kelce and previously, Gronkowski so dangerous was their ability to be physical back and actually push off in the guise of putting a hand out or hand fighting. It did show on his Draft Profile as a weakness - "Jarred off of his base by average contact" "Physical defenders are able to slow his routes." along with "Has enough speed to threaten vertically and across the field." Are the former, skills that can be learned, trained for, and coached up?

Oh, FFS. You said "I'm not sure what the point is". So I tried to explain. The false dichotomy between issuing an apology that isn't based on understanding the point, vs. "internalize and be eternally remorseful", is a bit much, don't you think? Ciao.

I'm looping back here because I watched it again, and this struck me, I want to know if it struck anyone else. Several times when asked about Diggs in an interview, Allen has said "I love him like a brother". Diggs has said the same about Josh, at least twice I think? Once on Up and Adams for sure. In this video, the videographer says "What's Up Brother?" Dawkins ("Seventeen for Life. I Mean That."): "Bro, what did you just say to me?" Shakir (Allen's hoped-for next fave target): "Don't Ever say that to me Again." Videographer to Dawkins: "Goodbye, Brother" (videographer screams as Dawkins turns back to go after him) Maybe they're riffing on Allen calling Diggs "Brother" and vice versa - "don't do ME like that!"

I mean, yes and no? In the plays we're talking about, Shakir is open BECAUSE the safety is glued to Diggs and Sherfield was open BECAUSE Diggs had 3 guys (I think) looking at him and the 2nd safety shaded to Shakir. Either Shakir steps up and becomes the guy they focus on and frees someone else, or we need a boundary guy the defense fears enough to blanket and leave Shakir open. The way I see it anyway. They don't have to be genius players, just guys who catch the football well enough and run routes well enough that DC's are "we better cover that guy or we're gonna look very stupid watching him WHUP WHUP WHUP into the EZ. Could they fear Hollins and Kincaid enough? One thing that struck me was how very physical the Chiefs DBs were being. They knocked the stuffing out of Cook a couple times and threw him yards off his route. Ditto Diggs, he was getting knocked around. Can Shakir handle that and provide enough of a threat? Can Kincaid?

I agree with your fear completely, as I think I've laid out elsewhere. I think McDermott's core defensive philosophy is to have a whole of "selfless guys" that work together and are far greater than the sum of the parts. I think that has shown itself very able to earn regular season wins and to be substitution-tolerant at many positions, but it has fallen short against the best teams playing at a frenzied level in the playoffs. In acquiring Von Miller and re-upping Tre White as well as in drafting Elam (to presumably upgrade from a "White plus a JAG" 2ndary), Beane and McDermott themselves acknowledged "we need a few stars". The problem is, they couldn't forsee both Miller and White derailed by injury (White repeatedly). So we need to set ourselves up to move on and reload, and part of that is shedding cap this season. [I think the jury is still out on Elam, but obviously for his first 2 years that didn't work out, either.] On offense, we need IMO 2 guys. Whether that's someone we draft or a late FA signing, or whether Shakir, Kincaid, and Cook take steps, can't tell you. I agree with you that we could still contend for a Super Bowl in 2024, but that will depend upon a few key points. One of them is getting a functional pass rush from somewhere, whether that's Miller returning to form, Rousseau and Epenesa stepping up, or a draft/FA acquisition. Another, I think, is whether Josh Allen successfully transitions from being the guy who directed 42% of his throws to Diggs and Davis (241 out of 579 including spikes and throw aways), to being the guy who takes the choice with the higher % of success just a bit more often. He alluded to that at the end of his presser and mentioned "conversation with other QB". It was noted that prior to 2020 when Josh took a big step to overhaul his throwing motion, he was said to have dug into several QB who had improved their throwing motion during their careers, and picked them clean about what he needed to do to improve in the course of a couple dinners. So I think that "conversation with other QB" is worth noting, and may be worth noting that Tom Brady is one of the QB Josh has spent some off season time with. While Brady has been public in loving Josh and wanting to see him win a SB, I'm certain he would not hold back if they spoke privately. If Josh has decided to dedicate himself to becoming a better "field general' and mental student of the game in the same way he dedicated himself to becoming a better rotational thrower of the football with proper hip-shoulder-arm sequencing, expect great things. Time Will Tell, but no longer having Diggs there clamoring for the HIM share of the targets may help.

Then let me spell it out to you once more. Above, you acknowledge that in fact, you were giving your opinions and thoughts and what you read into what Beane says, which you believe to be fair and logical. OK- but then, this is a discussion board, and others are entitled to disagree with your opinion about "modern NFL offenses", to think that in bringing up McCaffery and the 49ers you are bringing up a Unicorn, a Unicorn player on one of two modern NFL teams with a successful run-first approach that differs from the modern NFL offensive approach 29 other teams, and the one which asks the QB only to be a good decision maker and ball distributor (why Shanahan has found strong success with many different QB). Others can also disagree with your "fair and logical" reading into what Beane says. But then, to dismiss someone who tries to debate your personal thoughts and opinions with you, "you can argue with me all you want, but what I'm telling you is what I think the Bills are doing, and what in fact Beane TOLD us he's doing" "Argue with it all you like, but I'm just the messenger" and "However, once Beane says what he is thinking, i don't see much point in arguing" is logically fallacious, when much of your post is actually not derived from that Appeal to Authority. I don't want to whale a dead horse, but since you acknowledged that you were actually giving your personal opinion and thoughts about NFL offenses and observations about the Bills as well as what you read into what Beane said, yet still claim "I don't see what the point is", I thought I'd give it a go. You can be interested in discussing your opinion and thoughts and what you read into Beane's words, you can be disinterested in discussing your opinion and thoughts and what you read into Beane's words, but to cut off discussion by an appeal to Beane's Words as an Authority you now acknowledge you went well beyond, Eh. I'd be happy to accept your apology and I'm not gonna carry a bone or beat a dead horse, except if you're "not sure what the point is", it seems like "form without function".

Great find, thanks! JT O'Sullivan always worth watching. For those unfamiliar, O'Sullivan had a 12 year career as a journeyman QB with, I think, 10 or 12 teams. He was kind of the Nathan Peterman of his day, a guy who must have been "catnip for coaches" but couldn't get it done at the NFL level on the field, except he did start 8 games for SF 6 years into his journey (and threw more picks than TDs). Subscribe, you won't regret it. On the just-missed-the-catch to Sherfield on 3rd and 12 38:12 minutes into the video...O'Sullivan spends a long time painting the throw to Shakir in the middle as the better choice. I don't see it. Where's someone who knows their shite like @HoofHearted to put me straight? 2 deep safeties, one takes Diggs, one takes Shakir, and Sherfield is the correct read. Sherfield gets his hands on it. There is no reason that shouldn't have been a catch: a high degree of difficulty catch, but a catch. The next play he shows is the missed catch by Diggs. Yes, Diggs could and should have caught that if he's HIM. O'Sullivan points out, though, that Allen had a receiver (I think it's Shakir) "wide-ass open" in the middle of the field. Allen showed "his brother" some love, and it wasn't returned.

@Hokieman-ol7qh 4 hours ago " I can't get enough of the snarky commentary... "how bout your boy down here to the bottom throwing up the mailbox double covered"... lol "

That's actually interesting. These things usually seem to just recap the teams that were good the previous year. But it's omitting Houston, which was a division winning playoff team last year and looks to have been serious about making a run for it Cowboys, who had the same record as the 49ers and Lions I guess the feeling was the Bengals woulda been in it if Burrows weren't hurt so they get the "hall pass" from 2022? I won't be shocked but I will be

Did you mean "wary of"? I think that's exactly right. I believe Shakir is a very good player with a lot of promise, and should take another step this season and be used more than he was. I believe the same of Kincaid. But I still think to be a top passing team, we need a guy whose natural skillset aligns with playing outside, on the boundary. And I'm wary of Beane when he says things that align with what he said before the 2019 season, when he told us we'd kind of fill the #1 role by committee. It worked well enough for 10 wins, but we could easily have had several more if we'd had a player who was a natural match for the boundary role, instead of asking 5'11 John Brown to bring in 50/50 balls or get off press man and Robert Foster to be our deep threat.

Same.

I'm generally in agreement with you about the D. I see questionmarks at a couple positions, but I have faith in McDermott's ability to make it work. Anyone remember that we played the Miami game and locked them down with Rapp playing 100% of the snaps at safety? Didn't think so. I do think it's selling Samuel way short if that's who you're describing as a "gadget guy". He's been a receiver, and a generally rather consistent one. "Gadget Guy" McKenzie would still be on the team if he'd been racking up 60+ receptions/year and 600+ yds/year on the regular. If he and Josh can get on the same page, we should be able to have two guys who can play both the slot and outside, in Samuel and Shakir. And I wholly agree that we have big holes at WR, unless they believe Kincaid can provide a deep threat?

Ooh. I can't argue with the l2nd to last sentence, that I bolded. My personal belief is that what happens is McDermott and his D coaches skill at getting the most from whatever defensive roster they have, falls short when faced with the very best offensive players (and of course, missing 2 starters and a key rotational player with 2 more playing hurt, probably made KC and their fans grin like Cheshire cats) As far as losing Poyer and Hyde....it might be worth noting that Rapp actually started 4 games (1 for Poyer and 3 for Hyde), as well as enabling the rotation the Bills used to make up for Milano - on key passing downs 12-33% of the snaps, they would move Poyer into the box as a "LB lite" and have Rapp backfill at safety, to overcome Dodson's lesser abilities in coverage. And to my eyes, both Poyer and Hyde had fallen off quite a bit. I'm nervous about relying on Rapp at safety, but I also don't believe who we have on the roster now is necessarily who we'll go into the season with.

I share your concern about the defense, but I thought the defense was going to be a significant step worse last season, going into the season with great big ??? at MLB, without Von Miller, and relying on the highly intelligent, synergistic, but aging Dr Poyer and Mr Hyde at safety. And it wasn't. It was lights out to start the season, allowing us to be blissfully "Marked Safe from Hearing about How Many Points the Dolphins Scored" during Week 4. Then we lost 3 significant starting pieces by Week 4 and again, I was "oh *****, O better ratchet it up", but 4 weeks later we're trading for Rasul Douglas, we've signed Linval Joseph, and we've figured out how to platoon Tyrell Dodson with Jordan Poyer at LB to make up for the loss of Milano. So while right now I see question marks and gaps all over our D, I have a fair degree of confidence that as far as regular season goes, if you give McDermott a plate of intelligent NFL players with a leavening of talent, he'll figure out how to cobble together a functional NFL defense. I'll put it out there: I think we have 3 big questionmarks on offense. Questionmark 1 is, "will the OL be at least at the level it was last season?" That has 3 sub parts:"is Connor McGovern a capable C for the Bills"? "Is David Edwards the answer at LG?" and "Will Spencer Brown take a step as a pass blocking RT?" Questionmark 2 is, "who will the Bills start the season with, at WR?" Who will they get in the draft? Will they sign a FA after the draft? Beane's commentary about not seeing a glaring hole or needing a #1, is, I hope just pre-draft GM speak. Without Stefon Diggs, the Bills offense was good enough to get to the playoffs and run out of offensive gas. Questionmark 3 is, "What is Joe Brady's vision for the offense, and can he flex that vision to make the best use of the pieces we have?" That's the Biggest Question for me. it's clear from what Allen said, and how the team performed at the end of last season, he and his teammates are comfortable with Joe Brady. Brady doesn't have a lot of experience - 2 years as a Saints offensive assistant, a year as the Passing Game Coordinator and WR coach at LSU, 2 years as the OC of the Panthers (pretty bad offense, but maybe not his fault), then 1.5 years as the QB coach for the Bills and 0.5 years as OC. In his interview about 8:16 in, after praising the addition of Curtis Samuel, the development of Khalil, and Dalton and Dawson, Allen said "bringing in someone who pairs well with these guys...but really it depends on what we want to be as an offense, to see who's going to be the best fit, and right now I couldn't tell you that." Different ways to interpret that. I think it was Greg Cosell who commented on one of his OBD segments about Joe Brady wanting the offense to be a run-first offense. Based on what we saw at the end of last season, I can't fault that line of thought - the Bills had 331 rush attempts to 298 pass attempts after Brady took over, and had more rush than pass attempts in 5 of 9 games (2 more where it was even or within 2). I hope that's not the direction that Brady wants to take the Bills, because it seems like a waste of a QB who can make any throw to any part of the field, and whose strength has never been the short, precision passing game with YAC that run-first teams tend to rely on. It's also, unless we pull more RBs out of the air, a hell of a lot of wear and tear on that QB's body. During the first 10 games, Allen had 48 rush attempts or an average of 4.8/game; during the last 9 games with Brady, Allen had 83 rush attempts or 9.2/game. I'm hoping that Brady was leaning on the run to let Josh's throwing shoulder "get right", and to compensate for Diggs lack of contribution (whether he took himself out, was hindered by nagging injuries, or the Bills were deliberately leaving him out). Anyway, I'm more concerned about the offense at this point; although I don't make the mistake of thinking the players we have right now are going to be the ones we start the season with, I think Questions 3 and 1 will remain.

This is obviously a huge body of work. Props for that. I would like to respectfully suggest to McDermott and Beane that hitting on 1 out of 3 from the Florida Gators of recent years might indicate the need to fish from a different pond I know next to nothing about college ball, but I like the idea of a DT who made someone's "freaks list".

Here's the thing though, Shaw. And I intend this respectfully, because I do respect you as a poster. You made a whole long post. It's not just about what Beane says. It's about what, in your opinion, Beane means by what he says. I'll bold. I took the time and trouble to ask questions, give perspective from what I see, etc etc and you come back with this: Look, you just wrote a whole screed about YOUR OPINION. Not limited to what Beane said, but this whole screed about "the reality of 2024 NFL offense" and how a number 1 isn't necessary any more", on and on and on. YOUR OPINION, after telling me I "misperceive the reality of 2024 offense" But when I tried to have a discussion about that and bring up examples - you side-step discussion saying "you're just the messenger" and there's no point in arguing, you're just telling me what Beane told us he's doing - No, Man. That's not what you're doing. You went way beyond what Beane said, into inferring your beliefs about why he said it, how modern NFL offenses operate or want to operate, etc etc. You're giving your opinion about the reality of 2024 NFL offense and what it needs, using SF as an example, which is actually IMO an anomolous offense, one of 2. You're stating that Jefferson isn't multiple and isn't as valuable as guys who are multiple - on and on. You're entitled to your opinion. You're also entltled to decline to discuss your opinion with me, or with anyone. But be honest about what you're doing. Otherwise what you're saying is "I can assert whatever I want to assert about NFL offenses in 2024 and it's inarguable because BEANE SAYS." That's baloney. Sorry, that's what it is.

Charming people, I'm Sure

I don't agree with their assessment of Beane and the trade for Josh Allen: the bottom line is, no matter who is sitting in the GM chair, if the team doesn't have a top QB its overall outlook is poor. But otherwise, spot on. The assessment of the trade-up for Sammy Watkins is especially a propos No, not quite. I'm saying that you can make up a number of different scenarios where we don't trade for Diggs or extend him, and acquire quality receiver talent by other means, and that the chances we make the playoffs could theoretically be just as good. If we're playing "let's rewrite history and figure out who we could have acquired instead of Diggs, or by trading Diggs after 2021 instead of signing him to a big extension in Spring 2022, SURE, we can come up with a variety of solutions to replace his regular-season production. I'm saying if you take the team we had, and erase Diggs regular season contributions, we don't make the playoffs - even if Allen does a super-efficient job of distributing the ball to the rest of the guys on those teams as they were. You can't erase or disparage Diggs regular season production and without Diggs, I personally don't believe we had enough regular season WR/TE talent. We made it work at the end of 2023 by leaning on the run game, and I hope we don't intend to become a run-first team, that would be a waste of Josh Allen's talents. And Diggs did have some clutch playoff contributions - 2020, and the Miami game in 2022

Question: did you ever?

I hear you both that defense is a question mark. But then, last season with losing Edmunds and not having a clear cut MLB or Von Miller to start the season and with Tre White as a giant ? based on the end of 2022, I thought our defense was iffy and our offense would have to carry us (which, I thought it could) Turned out it was the other way around - our defense was solid until we lost Tre, DaQuan and Milano, with Floyd playing great in place of Miller and Tre back to his old form. Our offense was tenuous with splendid plays offset by miscues. I think the D will be O.K. provided Milano is back to form and we get SOMETHING from Von Miller besides interviews and podcasts. Both the guys we brought in at S (Rapp and Edwards) can play, so can Douglas and Benford. Injuries are a huge question right now, as we're thin behind the starters. I guess from that, my learning is I have more faith in McDermott and Beane to bring forward a defense that works no matter what and to add what they need if they don't, than I do in them to devote enough resources and have the right OC and players in place on offense.

I'll cop to it. I tend to omit Samuel when thinking about the WR room. Not sure why. Possibly because Beane's last 2 mid-tier FA WR acquisitions (Hardy and Crowder) didn't work out for us, for different reasons. Me Bad. Factually, though, I think you're significantly misrepresenting Samuel's availability/injury history. He's missed significant time in 1 of the last 5 seasons https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SamuCu00.htm 2019: 16 games 2020: 15 games 2021: injured most of season 2022: 17 games 2023: 16 games Where is this "weak and wobbly" "always hurt" coming from?

That would be grand Yeah, it's possible he had a problem that never healed correctly all through college, and the Bills had him get a procedure and then go through a long process to break down the scar tissue and really "get it right" - we rebuilt him so he is stronger, faster, better in effect. IDK

Right, yes. Where it matters is that if the Bills had a pick in each of the first 3 rounds, they could use 2 of the 3 on WR and still add to another position on the team. Some people think the Bills have no other needs than WR, others (like me) think they have needs at DE, DL, and CB or maybe Safety. It's possible Beane has some legerdemain on tap for creating a 3rd round pick, I don't know.

And you certainly have a relevant point, that if the Bills had done a number of different things, they could have had different players who perhaps could have helped Josh elevate his game and make the playoffs. After all, Jefferson was available with the #1 pick we traded! etc etc. I think that's inarguable, so you're right there. My point was that to just say "I don't care about Diggs regular season contributions when he squibbed in the playoffs" doesn't really account for this. Other things being equal, playoffs would not be as much concern without Diggs regular season contributions. I don't think that's arguable, either.

You might have a point with regard to 2023 when Shakir had taken a big step forward and we had Kincaid playing very well. But who was there to spread the ball to in 2022? Of course if you want to hypothesise different WR onto the roster, any situation can be created.