Beck Water

I don't know what is meant by "alpha" - that's usually a term used to reflect dominance, and a rookie really better have a more modest approach and, no matter how good he is, recognize the NFL equivalent of "that's nice sonny, but this here's the fleet" I personally hope the Bills draft someone who will be ready to step in play a majority of the snaps as the X receiver, if that's what you mean, because that's clearly where the gap in the Bills WR game is right now. I think I've queried you before regarding whether you're referring to Curtis Samuel as "a gadget guy that is good with the ball in his hands". If so, I continue to think you're seriously mispresenting a receiver who, except for the season he was on IR, has been playing >60% of the snaps and contributing >60 receptions and >600 yds 4 of his last 5 seasons (the 5th season being, IR). I agree he's not a boundary receiver, but he's way more than "a gadget guy", gadget guys don't take that many snaps or produce that much. WR, no. Receiver, yes. I don't know if you've noticed, but "#1 receiver" seems to be a bit like the term "franchise QB" we used to bruit around all the time when we didn't have one. It means different things to different people and folks argue about it without clarifying what it means to them or the chap they're talking with.

Gentle reminder that the 6th WR off the board is not necessarily the 6th best WR in the draft

Not according to nfl.com draft profiles https://www.nfl.com/prospects/xavier-worthy/3200574f-5274-1496-c9ca-5c4709faa05b Same point though

2) Great, just what we need, another smurf-y Z receiver that lacks the strength and the release to beat press man coverage at the X or Y position, to go with our stable of receivers who are best used playing off the LOS plus Mack "Savage" Hollins. Bills should 100% take their draft advice from Ty Dunne

Friendly reminder that we all wanted Beane to do his "due diligence" on trading in both directions.

Thought this was interesting - a scorecard for who has been the most and least accurate with the rumors https://walterfootball.com/draft2023rumorsresults.php Spoiler: that Charlie Campbell guy is pretty good

Another assessment of Beane's trade-up habits, this one from TBN by Ryan O'Halloran https://buffalonews.com/sports/professional/nfl/bills/buffalo-bills-brandon-beane-nfl-draft/article_db2bf4ac-fe54-11ee-b5ab-47c3d31b4ca2.html The most interesting thing to me is that he rates Elam as a "push" resulting from a trade up. Anyway, it's an assessment based soley on the result (whether or not we got a great or a good player) and not on the opportunity cost (whether a great or good player might have been available at our original pick, and with the pick we used in the trade) Take it FWIW.

It depends a lot upon the context in which I meet them. If I'm just encountering them in passing, I wouldn't try to have a conversation. They have their schedule, I have mine. On the other hand, if we're near each other in the course of things for an extended time, I'll chat. Several years back we had a reserved camping spot next to a man who looked like he'd transplanted his entire Bills tailgating setup to a small state park on the Western shores of Lake Ontario - big Bills-themed canopy floored with Bills rugs, I forget what all else he had except a wife and several young kids who wanted to pet our Very Cheerful and Fluffy Dog. So of course after petting formalities were completed, we struck up a convo about the Bills and I asked if he ever hung out on Bills fan boards and mentioned TBD (he didn't). I've had a couple convos at airport gates and in line to buy fish From A Guy in the Virgin Islands, I don't recall if I mentioned TBD though. She's not a Keeper. Unless she makes REALLY GOOD wings that is.

I thought about starting a new thread, but it's appropriate here. Joe B starts his annual series on the draft https://theathletic.com/5430707/2024/04/22/buffalo-bills-2024-nfl-draft-files/ Some key points He compares and contrasts what Beane said in this presser vs 2022, when we traded up to draft Kaiir Elam: Joe points out the analogy to 2022, when top CB Tre White was injured and likely unavailable for the next season, #2 CB had left in FA, and we had a capable backup CB in Dane Jackson who had stepped up when asked (he makes the analogy to Diggs traded, #2 WR Davis left in FA, and Shakir as that capable 3rd WR: The result in 2022 was that the Bills not only drafted a CB, but they traded up to draft a CB. Joe B goes on to lay out Beane's track record as far as trading up: I will say that with the exception of Josh Allen where Beane steadily built draft capital prior to the draft and even worked a trade to move up 9 spots using a player, Beane's trade-ups are usually "use a 4th round pick to move up a few spots", not "Big Splash Trade Ups". Joe justifiably concludes that despite what he says, Beane is most likely to trade up based on past behavior. Joe does point out that the Bills are in a bit of a different spot this off-season. In the past several off seasons, most of the starting roster spots have pretty much been "locked down" prior to the draft, but this year, only 33 of 53 players returned. So IMO, there may be more chances for a 4th round pick to make the roster and contribute, making that pick more valuable to Beane and Beane less likely to trade it. Anyway, thought it was an interesting read, especially the analogy to 2022 and what Beane said before the draft about CB (praised the players we still had, pointed out his philosophy of build from the lines out) vs. his draft day actions (trading up for a CB) Edit: one of the things I like about Joe B even when I disagree with him, is that he's methodical and backs up his takes. In this case, he includes draft trade value info and assesses which teams would be plausible trade targets. I think the Athletic has some kind of cheap trial deal, or can be packaged with a Times subscription if one rolls that way.

I checked "coach" but I want to be the offensive/defensive assistant or QC assistant who self-scouts the team for trends, and scouts the upcoming opponents Not saying I'd be good enough, but all day with all the data would be my jam.

The problem with this "if Brady could just design plays that get him off the line unmolested" thing, is that we already have 3 guys on the roster who are great, if Brady could just design plays that get him off the line unmolested.

Shakir has high athleticism and a "standard"-ish height and weight for a WR. Skills like wicked breaks and jukes can be polished, and apparently Shakir spends his off season with Moulds polishing him. The main questionmark for him is that in the modern passing day since these measurables became publicly available, there's never been a boundary receiver with 29" arms. It's not "eyelashes" or "toes", it's a matter of the vocabulary of physical moves available to the guy when there's a DL with 31" arms grabbing him at the LOS or handfighting down the field.

Jesu, when you put it like that.....we need some receivers who can actually catch.

In the lab https://www.buffalobills.com/photos/in-the-lab-phase-one-of-2024-buffalo-bills-offseason-workouts#47cddda7-f3bf-49b7-b1fb-dbde801bb0aa Photo #22 Cam Lewis with no wrap and NO BRACE - whatever someone feels about Cam as a fan, ya feel good to see that Von Miller is participating

TIL the abbreviation emlos LOL Yeah, I was kind of conflating two different skills in my post A bit tired from gardening - @#$! Japanese anemones, those Greedy Guts. And I swear they put roots down like they're trying to go back to Japan, through the earth. One question is, can a guy learn not to be held up or jarred off his routes by physical play. We hope Kincaid can train for and work on that. We know he was a top basketball player in HS (National Champion AAU squad), which ought to help with that mindset. The other is, can a guy release off the LOS against press man playing outside. One of the skills Kincaid was said to have, and I see no lies, was "sweet feet" and the ability to burst into routes. That's one thing, the ability to do those things lined up outside, is something else. I do agree the Bills need someone who can do that (I think Mack Hollis can) and play WR with a higher degree of skill than, say, Sherfield who had his hands on that ball, dammit! (don't know that Mack Hollis can). Fundamentally, it seems as though on the Bills right now, all the receivers play best from the slot.

You know I agree with you on the Bills needing a boundry WR who can hold his own. But what makes that? Surely, Kincaid has the physical tools to be that type at 6'4" 246 lb with 32 5/8" arms? It's not unheard of - one of the things that makes TE like Kelce and previously, Gronkowski so dangerous was their ability to be physical back and actually push off in the guise of putting a hand out or hand fighting. It did show on his Draft Profile as a weakness - "Jarred off of his base by average contact" "Physical defenders are able to slow his routes." along with "Has enough speed to threaten vertically and across the field." Are the former, skills that can be learned, trained for, and coached up?

Oh, FFS. You said "I'm not sure what the point is". So I tried to explain. The false dichotomy between issuing an apology that isn't based on understanding the point, vs. "internalize and be eternally remorseful", is a bit much, don't you think? Ciao.

I'm looping back here because I watched it again, and this struck me, I want to know if it struck anyone else. Several times when asked about Diggs in an interview, Allen has said "I love him like a brother". Diggs has said the same about Josh, at least twice I think? Once on Up and Adams for sure. In this video, the videographer says "What's Up Brother?" Dawkins ("Seventeen for Life. I Mean That."): "Bro, what did you just say to me?" Shakir (Allen's hoped-for next fave target): "Don't Ever say that to me Again." Videographer to Dawkins: "Goodbye, Brother" (videographer screams as Dawkins turns back to go after him) Maybe they're riffing on Allen calling Diggs "Brother" and vice versa - "don't do ME like that!"

I mean, yes and no? In the plays we're talking about, Shakir is open BECAUSE the safety is glued to Diggs and Sherfield was open BECAUSE Diggs had 3 guys (I think) looking at him and the 2nd safety shaded to Shakir. Either Shakir steps up and becomes the guy they focus on and frees someone else, or we need a boundary guy the defense fears enough to blanket and leave Shakir open. The way I see it anyway. They don't have to be genius players, just guys who catch the football well enough and run routes well enough that DC's are "we better cover that guy or we're gonna look very stupid watching him WHUP WHUP WHUP into the EZ. Could they fear Hollins and Kincaid enough? One thing that struck me was how very physical the Chiefs DBs were being. They knocked the stuffing out of Cook a couple times and threw him yards off his route. Ditto Diggs, he was getting knocked around. Can Shakir handle that and provide enough of a threat? Can Kincaid?

I agree with your fear completely, as I think I've laid out elsewhere. I think McDermott's core defensive philosophy is to have a whole of "selfless guys" that work together and are far greater than the sum of the parts. I think that has shown itself very able to earn regular season wins and to be substitution-tolerant at many positions, but it has fallen short against the best teams playing at a frenzied level in the playoffs. In acquiring Von Miller and re-upping Tre White as well as in drafting Elam (to presumably upgrade from a "White plus a JAG" 2ndary), Beane and McDermott themselves acknowledged "we need a few stars". The problem is, they couldn't forsee both Miller and White derailed by injury (White repeatedly). So we need to set ourselves up to move on and reload, and part of that is shedding cap this season. [I think the jury is still out on Elam, but obviously for his first 2 years that didn't work out, either.] On offense, we need IMO 2 guys. Whether that's someone we draft or a late FA signing, or whether Shakir, Kincaid, and Cook take steps, can't tell you. I agree with you that we could still contend for a Super Bowl in 2024, but that will depend upon a few key points. One of them is getting a functional pass rush from somewhere, whether that's Miller returning to form, Rousseau and Epenesa stepping up, or a draft/FA acquisition. Another, I think, is whether Josh Allen successfully transitions from being the guy who directed 42% of his throws to Diggs and Davis (241 out of 579 including spikes and throw aways), to being the guy who takes the choice with the higher % of success just a bit more often. He alluded to that at the end of his presser and mentioned "conversation with other QB". It was noted that prior to 2020 when Josh took a big step to overhaul his throwing motion, he was said to have dug into several QB who had improved their throwing motion during their careers, and picked them clean about what he needed to do to improve in the course of a couple dinners. So I think that "conversation with other QB" is worth noting, and may be worth noting that Tom Brady is one of the QB Josh has spent some off season time with. While Brady has been public in loving Josh and wanting to see him win a SB, I'm certain he would not hold back if they spoke privately. If Josh has decided to dedicate himself to becoming a better "field general' and mental student of the game in the same way he dedicated himself to becoming a better rotational thrower of the football with proper hip-shoulder-arm sequencing, expect great things. Time Will Tell, but no longer having Diggs there clamoring for the HIM share of the targets may help.

Then let me spell it out to you once more. Above, you acknowledge that in fact, you were giving your opinions and thoughts and what you read into what Beane says, which you believe to be fair and logical. OK- but then, this is a discussion board, and others are entitled to disagree with your opinion about "modern NFL offenses", to think that in bringing up McCaffery and the 49ers you are bringing up a Unicorn, a Unicorn player on one of two modern NFL teams with a successful run-first approach that differs from the modern NFL offensive approach 29 other teams, and the one which asks the QB only to be a good decision maker and ball distributor (why Shanahan has found strong success with many different QB). Others can also disagree with your "fair and logical" reading into what Beane says. But then, to dismiss someone who tries to debate your personal thoughts and opinions with you, "you can argue with me all you want, but what I'm telling you is what I think the Bills are doing, and what in fact Beane TOLD us he's doing" "Argue with it all you like, but I'm just the messenger" and "However, once Beane says what he is thinking, i don't see much point in arguing" is logically fallacious, when much of your post is actually not derived from that Appeal to Authority. I don't want to whale a dead horse, but since you acknowledged that you were actually giving your personal opinion and thoughts about NFL offenses and observations about the Bills as well as what you read into what Beane said, yet still claim "I don't see what the point is", I thought I'd give it a go. You can be interested in discussing your opinion and thoughts and what you read into Beane's words, you can be disinterested in discussing your opinion and thoughts and what you read into Beane's words, but to cut off discussion by an appeal to Beane's Words as an Authority you now acknowledge you went well beyond, Eh. I'd be happy to accept your apology and I'm not gonna carry a bone or beat a dead horse, except if you're "not sure what the point is", it seems like "form without function".

Great find, thanks! JT O'Sullivan always worth watching. For those unfamiliar, O'Sullivan had a 12 year career as a journeyman QB with, I think, 10 or 12 teams. He was kind of the Nathan Peterman of his day, a guy who must have been "catnip for coaches" but couldn't get it done at the NFL level on the field, except he did start 8 games for SF 6 years into his journey (and threw more picks than TDs). Subscribe, you won't regret it. On the just-missed-the-catch to Sherfield on 3rd and 12 38:12 minutes into the video...O'Sullivan spends a long time painting the throw to Shakir in the middle as the better choice. I don't see it. Where's someone who knows their shite like @HoofHearted to put me straight? 2 deep safeties, one takes Diggs, one takes Shakir, and Sherfield is the correct read. Sherfield gets his hands on it. There is no reason that shouldn't have been a catch: a high degree of difficulty catch, but a catch. The next play he shows is the missed catch by Diggs. Yes, Diggs could and should have caught that if he's HIM. O'Sullivan points out, though, that Allen had a receiver (I think it's Shakir) "wide-ass open" in the middle of the field. Allen showed "his brother" some love, and it wasn't returned.

@Hokieman-ol7qh 4 hours ago " I can't get enough of the snarky commentary... "how bout your boy down here to the bottom throwing up the mailbox double covered"... lol "

That's actually interesting. These things usually seem to just recap the teams that were good the previous year. But it's omitting Houston, which was a division winning playoff team last year and looks to have been serious about making a run for it Cowboys, who had the same record as the 49ers and Lions I guess the feeling was the Bengals woulda been in it if Burrows weren't hurt so they get the "hall pass" from 2022? I won't be shocked but I will be

Did you mean "wary of"? I think that's exactly right. I believe Shakir is a very good player with a lot of promise, and should take another step this season and be used more than he was. I believe the same of Kincaid. But I still think to be a top passing team, we need a guy whose natural skillset aligns with playing outside, on the boundary. And I'm wary of Beane when he says things that align with what he said before the 2019 season, when he told us we'd kind of fill the #1 role by committee. It worked well enough for 10 wins, but we could easily have had several more if we'd had a player who was a natural match for the boundary role, instead of asking 5'11 John Brown to bring in 50/50 balls or get off press man and Robert Foster to be our deep threat.