Beck Water

Same.

I'm generally in agreement with you about the D. I see questionmarks at a couple positions, but I have faith in McDermott's ability to make it work. Anyone remember that we played the Miami game and locked them down with Rapp playing 100% of the snaps at safety? Didn't think so. I do think it's selling Samuel way short if that's who you're describing as a "gadget guy". He's been a receiver, and a generally rather consistent one. "Gadget Guy" McKenzie would still be on the team if he'd been racking up 60+ receptions/year and 600+ yds/year on the regular. If he and Josh can get on the same page, we should be able to have two guys who can play both the slot and outside, in Samuel and Shakir. And I wholly agree that we have big holes at WR, unless they believe Kincaid can provide a deep threat?

Ooh. I can't argue with the l2nd to last sentence, that I bolded. My personal belief is that what happens is McDermott and his D coaches skill at getting the most from whatever defensive roster they have, falls short when faced with the very best offensive players (and of course, missing 2 starters and a key rotational player with 2 more playing hurt, probably made KC and their fans grin like Cheshire cats) As far as losing Poyer and Hyde....it might be worth noting that Rapp actually started 4 games (1 for Poyer and 3 for Hyde), as well as enabling the rotation the Bills used to make up for Milano - on key passing downs 12-33% of the snaps, they would move Poyer into the box as a "LB lite" and have Rapp backfill at safety, to overcome Dodson's lesser abilities in coverage. And to my eyes, both Poyer and Hyde had fallen off quite a bit. I'm nervous about relying on Rapp at safety, but I also don't believe who we have on the roster now is necessarily who we'll go into the season with.

I share your concern about the defense, but I thought the defense was going to be a significant step worse last season, going into the season with great big ??? at MLB, without Von Miller, and relying on the highly intelligent, synergistic, but aging Dr Poyer and Mr Hyde at safety. And it wasn't. It was lights out to start the season, allowing us to be blissfully "Marked Safe from Hearing about How Many Points the Dolphins Scored" during Week 4. Then we lost 3 significant starting pieces by Week 4 and again, I was "oh *****, O better ratchet it up", but 4 weeks later we're trading for Rasul Douglas, we've signed Linval Joseph, and we've figured out how to platoon Tyrell Dodson with Jordan Poyer at LB to make up for the loss of Milano. So while right now I see question marks and gaps all over our D, I have a fair degree of confidence that as far as regular season goes, if you give McDermott a plate of intelligent NFL players with a leavening of talent, he'll figure out how to cobble together a functional NFL defense. I'll put it out there: I think we have 3 big questionmarks on offense. Questionmark 1 is, "will the OL be at least at the level it was last season?" That has 3 sub parts:"is Connor McGovern a capable C for the Bills"? "Is David Edwards the answer at LG?" and "Will Spencer Brown take a step as a pass blocking RT?" Questionmark 2 is, "who will the Bills start the season with, at WR?" Who will they get in the draft? Will they sign a FA after the draft? Beane's commentary about not seeing a glaring hole or needing a #1, is, I hope just pre-draft GM speak. Without Stefon Diggs, the Bills offense was good enough to get to the playoffs and run out of offensive gas. Questionmark 3 is, "What is Joe Brady's vision for the offense, and can he flex that vision to make the best use of the pieces we have?" That's the Biggest Question for me. it's clear from what Allen said, and how the team performed at the end of last season, he and his teammates are comfortable with Joe Brady. Brady doesn't have a lot of experience - 2 years as a Saints offensive assistant, a year as the Passing Game Coordinator and WR coach at LSU, 2 years as the OC of the Panthers (pretty bad offense, but maybe not his fault), then 1.5 years as the QB coach for the Bills and 0.5 years as OC. In his interview about 8:16 in, after praising the addition of Curtis Samuel, the development of Khalil, and Dalton and Dawson, Allen said "bringing in someone who pairs well with these guys...but really it depends on what we want to be as an offense, to see who's going to be the best fit, and right now I couldn't tell you that." Different ways to interpret that. I think it was Greg Cosell who commented on one of his OBD segments about Joe Brady wanting the offense to be a run-first offense. Based on what we saw at the end of last season, I can't fault that line of thought - the Bills had 331 rush attempts to 298 pass attempts after Brady took over, and had more rush than pass attempts in 5 of 9 games (2 more where it was even or within 2). I hope that's not the direction that Brady wants to take the Bills, because it seems like a waste of a QB who can make any throw to any part of the field, and whose strength has never been the short, precision passing game with YAC that run-first teams tend to rely on. It's also, unless we pull more RBs out of the air, a hell of a lot of wear and tear on that QB's body. During the first 10 games, Allen had 48 rush attempts or an average of 4.8/game; during the last 9 games with Brady, Allen had 83 rush attempts or 9.2/game. I'm hoping that Brady was leaning on the run to let Josh's throwing shoulder "get right", and to compensate for Diggs lack of contribution (whether he took himself out, was hindered by nagging injuries, or the Bills were deliberately leaving him out). Anyway, I'm more concerned about the offense at this point; although I don't make the mistake of thinking the players we have right now are going to be the ones we start the season with, I think Questions 3 and 1 will remain.

This is obviously a huge body of work. Props for that. I would like to respectfully suggest to McDermott and Beane that hitting on 1 out of 3 from the Florida Gators of recent years might indicate the need to fish from a different pond I know next to nothing about college ball, but I like the idea of a DT who made someone's "freaks list".

Here's the thing though, Shaw. And I intend this respectfully, because I do respect you as a poster. You made a whole long post. It's not just about what Beane says. It's about what, in your opinion, Beane means by what he says. I'll bold. I took the time and trouble to ask questions, give perspective from what I see, etc etc and you come back with this: Look, you just wrote a whole screed about YOUR OPINION. Not limited to what Beane said, but this whole screed about "the reality of 2024 NFL offense" and how a number 1 isn't necessary any more", on and on and on. YOUR OPINION, after telling me I "misperceive the reality of 2024 offense" But when I tried to have a discussion about that and bring up examples - you side-step discussion saying "you're just the messenger" and there's no point in arguing, you're just telling me what Beane told us he's doing - No, Man. That's not what you're doing. You went way beyond what Beane said, into inferring your beliefs about why he said it, how modern NFL offenses operate or want to operate, etc etc. You're giving your opinion about the reality of 2024 NFL offense and what it needs, using SF as an example, which is actually IMO an anomolous offense, one of 2. You're stating that Jefferson isn't multiple and isn't as valuable as guys who are multiple - on and on. You're entitled to your opinion. You're also entltled to decline to discuss your opinion with me, or with anyone. But be honest about what you're doing. Otherwise what you're saying is "I can assert whatever I want to assert about NFL offenses in 2024 and it's inarguable because BEANE SAYS." That's baloney. Sorry, that's what it is.

Charming people, I'm Sure

I don't agree with their assessment of Beane and the trade for Josh Allen: the bottom line is, no matter who is sitting in the GM chair, if the team doesn't have a top QB its overall outlook is poor. But otherwise, spot on. The assessment of the trade-up for Sammy Watkins is especially a propos No, not quite. I'm saying that you can make up a number of different scenarios where we don't trade for Diggs or extend him, and acquire quality receiver talent by other means, and that the chances we make the playoffs could theoretically be just as good. If we're playing "let's rewrite history and figure out who we could have acquired instead of Diggs, or by trading Diggs after 2021 instead of signing him to a big extension in Spring 2022, SURE, we can come up with a variety of solutions to replace his regular-season production. I'm saying if you take the team we had, and erase Diggs regular season contributions, we don't make the playoffs - even if Allen does a super-efficient job of distributing the ball to the rest of the guys on those teams as they were. You can't erase or disparage Diggs regular season production and without Diggs, I personally don't believe we had enough regular season WR/TE talent. We made it work at the end of 2023 by leaning on the run game, and I hope we don't intend to become a run-first team, that would be a waste of Josh Allen's talents. And Diggs did have some clutch playoff contributions - 2020, and the Miami game in 2022

Question: did you ever?

I hear you both that defense is a question mark. But then, last season with losing Edmunds and not having a clear cut MLB or Von Miller to start the season and with Tre White as a giant ? based on the end of 2022, I thought our defense was iffy and our offense would have to carry us (which, I thought it could) Turned out it was the other way around - our defense was solid until we lost Tre, DaQuan and Milano, with Floyd playing great in place of Miller and Tre back to his old form. Our offense was tenuous with splendid plays offset by miscues. I think the D will be O.K. provided Milano is back to form and we get SOMETHING from Von Miller besides interviews and podcasts. Both the guys we brought in at S (Rapp and Edwards) can play, so can Douglas and Benford. Injuries are a huge question right now, as we're thin behind the starters. I guess from that, my learning is I have more faith in McDermott and Beane to bring forward a defense that works no matter what and to add what they need if they don't, than I do in them to devote enough resources and have the right OC and players in place on offense.

I'll cop to it. I tend to omit Samuel when thinking about the WR room. Not sure why. Possibly because Beane's last 2 mid-tier FA WR acquisitions (Hardy and Crowder) didn't work out for us, for different reasons. Me Bad. Factually, though, I think you're significantly misrepresenting Samuel's availability/injury history. He's missed significant time in 1 of the last 5 seasons https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SamuCu00.htm 2019: 16 games 2020: 15 games 2021: injured most of season 2022: 17 games 2023: 16 games Where is this "weak and wobbly" "always hurt" coming from?

That would be grand Yeah, it's possible he had a problem that never healed correctly all through college, and the Bills had him get a procedure and then go through a long process to break down the scar tissue and really "get it right" - we rebuilt him so he is stronger, faster, better in effect. IDK

Right, yes. Where it matters is that if the Bills had a pick in each of the first 3 rounds, they could use 2 of the 3 on WR and still add to another position on the team. Some people think the Bills have no other needs than WR, others (like me) think they have needs at DE, DL, and CB or maybe Safety. It's possible Beane has some legerdemain on tap for creating a 3rd round pick, I don't know.

And you certainly have a relevant point, that if the Bills had done a number of different things, they could have had different players who perhaps could have helped Josh elevate his game and make the playoffs. After all, Jefferson was available with the #1 pick we traded! etc etc. I think that's inarguable, so you're right there. My point was that to just say "I don't care about Diggs regular season contributions when he squibbed in the playoffs" doesn't really account for this. Other things being equal, playoffs would not be as much concern without Diggs regular season contributions. I don't think that's arguable, either.

You might have a point with regard to 2023 when Shakir had taken a big step forward and we had Kincaid playing very well. But who was there to spread the ball to in 2022? Of course if you want to hypothesise different WR onto the roster, any situation can be created.

Editing to whittle down to the bones of my own concern....it's that "usual take a middle round WR Carolina tradition" Beane cut his GM teeth with, combined with his talk about "no gaping hole" in the WR group. Add that to the WR situation Beane happily brought Allen into in 2018 (which he later admitted was a mistake), and the improvements, but not enough improvements, he made in 2020.... It's not always unreasonable to predict the way a frog (or a GM) jumps, from looking at its past jumping pattern. I agree with you completely on the playmakers and post-season.

Well, that's fine, but if you believe Beane and had a whole long post advancing arguments as to why he might be right, isn't it then appropriate for others (like me) to debate your arguments, and not side-step behind "I'm just the messenger, argue with it all you like"? You're entitled to just be the messenger and not asked to defend what you present (because, messenger) You're entitled to believe Beane and present arguments you believe support what he says "either or not both"

Well, to be fair....if we didn't have those 3,800 regular season yards from Stef the last 3 seasons, would we be in a position to whinge about his lack of playoff contributions? You're right, I mis-remembered. Apologies, 2 year deal it is. But as to his durability, he missed the playoff game against the Cinncinnati playoff game in 2022 with a calf injury and missed 10 games in 2023 with a torn pec. He's 32, the fur on the lucky durability rabbit's foot starts wearing off.

So the Panthers do have a new Buffalo connection since they hired Dan Morgan as Assistant GM in 2021 and just promoted him to GM....I haven't looked at the value match for swapping #28 for #33 - looks like an 80 point difference which would be like maybe their high 4th round pick with a Buffalo 5th rounder given back as change? If there was some reason they wanted to trade back into the 1st round for that extra option year or to lock up a player they want.

I didn't get the tune at first now I can't Un Get It EDIT: Never say TBD is not educational, @Ralonzo. I was THIS many days old when I learned that shaving cream is flammable!

Oooh, James Lofton was pretty chill by the time the Bills acquired him at age 33. But in his younger days as a Star of Stars in Green Bay ...... he definitely had his Diva side. He was also in serious legal trouble, although acquitted: https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1987-05-23-sp-1829-story.html

So let me ask you this: Do you believe him? Because that's really what I'm trying to discuss. It seemed as though you believe him and were advancing arguments as to why you believe that to be true. If you're just the messenger, then of course, there's no point in arguing, but that seems like a segue to much of the post I responded to. It seemed like something you believed, and were offering arguments to back up your belief.

While we're talking visual arguments, this is from Sal Capaccio. -At this point, the Bills rank 5th fewest receiving yards on the roster -Prior to the Diggs trade, it would have been 7th most I'm not sure how much 'career receiving yards' means; Diggs accounts for a lot because he's been in the league since 2015, for example. I think most people would say the Bengals have one of the best receiving corps in the league, but of course Ja'Marr Chase has 3 seasons and Tee Higgins 4. So they're 11th fewest.

Larry Fitzgerald after that it kind of depends upon how you define "diva"

Well, I suspect Beane does disagree, though he won't do so publicly. I know I do. I would personally say we have needs at DT, DE, and S at minimum; some might add CB. Yes, I know we have two safeties on the team, but based on performance on the field I am not comfortable with Taylor Rapp and Mike Edwards starting at safety, and I think both our backups are career backups at this point. We need to draft a guy with upside we can develop. If that's not a need because we can pencil in names, then hey - we can pencil in names that have played many games at WR, too, so I guess that's not a need. Quality matters. Similar with DT and DE. Da'Quan is on a 1 yr deal and hasn't made it through the last 2 seasons. Draft a DT if there's a decent one anywhere near us. DE: Casey Toohill is a career journeyman at DE who has finally, after 7 years in the league, made it to where he started 8 games last year. Right now at DE we got Rousseau, Epenesa, the Ghost of Von Miller, and Toohill. *shudder* I'd say that 's a need. I got to say that's an impressive body of work, @GunnerBill. Just kudos for putting in that effort, year after year. As far as your comment I bolded above, I think Beane said something pretty similar in his presser - I can't find it on a fast run through, but it was something to the effect of the quality probably continues into the initial part of round 2 then tails off after that.