Beck Water

Me, I'll go. I was thinking he looked lost in space and slow in the game he played subbing for Milano his rookie season, and I had no expectation that we would see the level of play from him we saw. Contrary points, Bernard had a scouting report that included this: He also was game active for all 16 games and played regular snaps on ST I did a bit of a deep dive because I wanted to know if there were hints of anything similar in any of the PS WR or last year's rookies. I personally didn't see it in the stuff I dug up, but maybe I wasn't looking at it right. I guess the most promising to me based on write-ups would be Bryan Thompson. It's certainly within the realm of possibility for both Kincaid and Shakir to elevate their games (not sure we'll see Shakir beating man coverage, esp. from the outside). But when we had a higher level of WR talent in '20 and '21, we had more than 2 guys. When we only had 2 guys (Brown and Beasley) in '19, it wasn't enough. Pretty much just Diggs and Davis in 2022, Ditto.

I guess that works if the 4 Robins have the collective moxie of 2 Batmans, but as I recall the TV series and movies that didn't seem to be the case. I come back to Emmanuel Acho's comments about teams having at least 3 "freakazoids" and asking who, besides Allen, are gonna be the Bills "freakazoids" on offense? Because we can win games without, and even a playoff game without, but when it comes to the best teams contending for championships, I think we need freaks.

This is an interesting point. I suppose one of the concerns I have is 2019, when Beane added Beasley and Brown and told us all we'd have #1 by committee. That worked well enough to get us to 10-6 and a first round playoff exit, but it really wasn't enough, and adding Dawson Knox as a 3rd round TE pick described as "outstanding combination of measurables and traits, but he's much more moldable clay than game-ready prospect at this point" didn't add enough that year. I don't fault Beane for drafting DL, but there were receivers available within reach for us in the 2nd round who have proven to be very very good players, AJ Brown and DK Metcalf still on the board for example. So here we are going into a draft described as amazingly deep with WR talent, and Beane's words could translate to "First round DT it is, I'll draft a WR who has great potential late in the 2nd round or maybe in the 4th, see, we added someone!" It's not that I think Beane speaks his whole truth (not right before the draft, definitely) or that a higher 1st round pick is automagically better than someone drafted near the bottom of the 1st or in the 2nd round - not necessarily true - but IMO Beane does have a pattern of prioritizing high draft resources (1st and 2nd round picks) on defense that was only broken last year with our 1st and 2nd round picks on O. I don't have any "skin" in the game of being "right" about how I interpret Beane, but I am concerned that in fact, he is saying what he means and meaning what he says. I feel the team that developed Beane as a GM, Carolina, had a pattern to under-prioritize protecting Cam Newton and providing him with weapons, and Beane is continuing that pattern. If you look at Carolina's drafts under Rivera (by Gurney and then Gettlemen) I find it eerily reminiscent of what Beane has done here. When Rivera took over and Newton was drafted, the talented but ancient Steven Smith was the #1 WR, 32 yrs old; Greg Olsen was also on the roster. They drafted WR in the 5th and 4th round the first 3 years of Newton's career, finally using a #1 pick on Fat Kelvin in his 4th year (sort of like trading for Diggs in Allen's 3rd season). That's pretty much it until 2017, Newton's 7th season, when they drafted Christian McCaffery and Curtis Samuel. But by then, Newton was pretty bashed up and on the downhill slide. Seriously, if you look at Carolina's drafts from 2011 to 2017, it's headshaking.

I don't think we have any clue as to what Beane will do, honestly. He left the strong impression that he's not enthused about giving up what he'd have to to move into the top 10, but he didn't rule it out, either. And he may not have to - in 2020, for example, when people were predicting IIRC that receivers would go high and 2 were projected to go in the top 10 by several boards, the 6 who were drafted in the 1st round were scattered from pick 12 to pick 25. The best 2 were arguably the 3rd and 5th drafted.

What do you know about DJ Chark? Of the FA still available, he and Hunter Renfrew interest me the most, but from what others have told me Renfrew is most productive as a slot (so I think he duplicates Samuel and Shakir). Chark: -had 1000+ yd season with Minshew and Foles throwing to him, 700 yds when it was Minshew and Glennon -fell off the map under Urban Meyer and Darrell Bevell -has had 2 ok-ish 30 catch, 500 yd seasons since with DET and CAR -last 2 seasons average 17 and 15 Y/R, but he doesn't seem to be a deep guy - it's 12 YBC and 4 YAC, so maybe more of an intermediate/short guy? I really haven't watched the guy play, interest just based on the fact that he had shown a couple good seasons and a couple OK seasons, and he's not an antique (27),

Understood on "not going to go back through", but if you have any clue about how far in it was, I'd appreciate it. I heard a lot of "don't need a true #1" "#1 by committee" prior to the 2019 season. Now admittedly, we upgraded our WR room with John Brown and Cole Beasley, though relative to Fat Kelvin, Bloody Zay Jones, Bob Foster, Andre Holmes, and Deonte Thompson, that was a pretty low bar to achieve. The bottom line, though, was that when it came to the playoffs where teams had had all season to watch film on us, it simply wasn't enough and Josh Allen was throwing passes at critical junctures to Duke Williams and Pat DiMarco. I don't want to go back there. Even if (as some suggest) Khalil Shakir takes a big step, Dalton Kincaid continues to develop, and Curtis Samuel has something akin to his previous career best year, I don't think it's enough, and I'm concerned Beane does or will "settle" for it.

Of course. That's why I was surprised that @Shaw66 felt he heard him say that he wanted a #1. I thought Beane's whole point in this presser was to act like "What? WR? Nah, we're good...hey, maybe we got a surprise buried in the depth of the roster, like Terrel Bernard last year...Of course we'd like to add one sometime, but No Rush! OK, thanks for your explanation.

The difference between Bernard and Shorter to me, is that Bernard was practicing with the team and was active for 16 games in 2022 - he mostly played ST, but did get one start and took snaps in 4 other games. Shorter, on IR, couldn't even practice with the team. I think Shakir has shown he's capable of playing in the NFL, but if Beane is counting on him to "elevate" and play a much much larger role - We Shall See, I guess.

Here, I'd like to redirect you to some of the work I and others have done looking at where in the draft the top guys fell. If you mean, we better draft a couple WR in this deep WR-talent draft AND EARLIER THAN THE 4th ROUND DAMMIT BEANE! I completely agree. If you mean it will be a failure if we come out of the draft without moving up in the 1st round to draft one of the guys being talked about as the top 3, Meh. Sometimes the guys touted as the top prospects come out the best, sometimes they don't.

I'm a bit puzzled why you're replying to me here. In general, my phrase for Beane is that I think he tells the truth, but not the whole truth and nothing but the truth. I've said that in other posts. I have no idea what "puppeteering Bills fans" means or why you think it's an important trait for a GM - I woulda thought building a good enough roster to sustain a high W-L record and get into the playoffs would be more his jam, but whatever.

Beane, in his sincere attempt to persuade us to believe he doesn't view the lack of a Diggs-size talent on the roster as a gaping hole that he intends to address in the draft, alluded to "young guys on the roster who can ascend, but they have to prove it too". He made an analogy to Terrell Bernard, who played very little his rookie season then "elevated" in a Big Way last season. "Tremaine Who?" Thought it might be a good time to profile just who is lurking in the depths of the roster. In order of seniority: 1) Andy Isabella, 2019 2nd round pick of the Cards (62 overall). Small fast guy - 5'8 3/4", 29 3/4" arms, 4.31 40-time. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andy_Isabella "Isabella entered the 2021 season sixth on the Cardinals wide receiver depth chart, and only had one catch the entire season and was inactive for half the season." The Cards brought him through training camp and onto the active roster, but waived him in early Oct 2022. Since then he's been on the Ravens and Bills practice squad Draft profile: https://www.nfl.com/prospects/andy-isabella/32004953-4156-2722-bf26-62181351a224 He was a successful RB and State-level winning track star in HS. "Isabella has the feet and fakes to uncover in a hallway closet, and the former high school sprint champion proved to Georgia that his ability to win deep should not be underestimated. Isabella could become a menace on option routes with the ability to add vertical routes from the slot, but he must improve his pass-catching consistency and smoothness into his breaks in order to transition all that speed to the NFL." He actually played 34% of the ST snaps for Buffalo last season, but it wasn't as a returner (1 KR to add to 8 previous KR). He had not previously played much ST. Chance of elevating as a receiver? I give this "low" - see I think @Kirby Jackson comments about the odds of success for short receivers with short arms. Never Say Never but.... On the other hand, if he's learned to live with a screw loose, perhaps he could continue to contribute on ST. 2) KJ Hamler, 2020 2nd round pick of the Broncos (46 overall). Another small fast guy - 5'8 5/8", 30 3/4" arms, didn't run at combine, said to have 4.27s 40-time https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K._J._Hamler https://www.nfl.com/prospects/k.j.-hamler/32004841-4d38-6186-eea5-110d32b9644c This guy's NFL career to date has been the living demonstration of the lyrics "if it weren't for bad luck, I'd have no luck at all". He had a hammy injury at the combine. He had 30 catches for 381 yds and 3 TD as a rookie, but finished the season on IR with a hammy. In his 2nd year, he had a great training camp and went on IR with a torn ACL Week 3. In his 3rd year, he played in 7 games but just as he might have been coming up to speed off the ACL, he suffered another hammy and was IR'd again In his 4th year, he tore his pec training on his own in the off-season then developed pericarditis in July 2023. Denver had enough and waived him with Non Football Injury. He spent 2023 on the Colts practice squad, but was not signed to a futures contract after the season. Chance of elevating as a receiver? Well, he showed flashes here and there of being able to play in the NFL, but repeated hammies and an ACL make this unlikely unless Beane has directed the equipment staff to cover his locker stall with 4-leaf clovers, hired him a personal leprechaun, and directed one of the training staff to follow him around providing hamstring massage. 3) Justin Shorter, Bills 2023 5th round pick (150 overall). Big guy - 6'4", 229 lb, 33 3/4" arms, 10" hands. 4.55 40-time. https://www.nfl.com/prospects/justin-shorter/32005348-4f65-1252-2fb4-216da3af656d Spent last season on IR. He was the top receiver prospect in the country in 2018, but somehow never delivered on that promise at the college level. Was benched for dropping passes at Penn State. Made good at Florida, but was limited his Sr year due to hammy injuries. Spent his rookie year with the Bills on IR due to (wait for it) hammy injury. His scouting profile, not that Zierlein is infallible, is not encouraging to me; I translate it as "looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane". It praises his physicality and toughness and ability to track the ball and high-point a catch, but also notes below-average foot quickness, slow and linear release that make it hard for him to beat press coverage, and loss of momentum in turns. Reading between the lines, I kind of get the sense of a guy who might have let his HS success go to his head a bit? Being on IR meant he could not practice with the team, except for a 3 week "designated for return" interval which saw him returned to IR. 4) Tyrell Shavers, 2023 UDFA from San Diego State after transferring from Alabama to Mississippi to SD State. Big guy - 6'4", 211 lb, 32 3/8" arms, said to run 4.55 40 https://www.profootballnetwork.com/san-diego-state-2023-nfl-draft-scouting-reports-include-jesse-matthews-alama-uluave-and-tyrell-shavers/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyrell_Shavers He's a bit of a dark horse to me. He apparently spent 3 seasons at Alabama buried on the depth chart, transferred to Mississippi State, saw some playing time and caught 9 passes for 104 yds, then transferred again. Had 38 passes for 643 yards, and three touchdowns with SD State and was a ST ace. Elevate? Of the preceding 3, I guess I see Shavers as the most likely - he hasn't been injury plagued. Because he was on PS not IR he could practice with the team all last season. The PFN draft report says "Shavers showed a lot of improvement in his game last season, yet he’s unpolished in most aspects of the receiver position. A lack of speed is a major concern" but also "Displays good route discipline, quickly gets out of breaks, and uses his frame to protect the ball. Works across the field to make himself an available target, possesses terrific eye/hand coordination, and comes away with the difficult catch. Tracks the pass in the air, gets vertical, and extends to make the reception away from his frame. Easily adjusts to the errant throw." Kind of sounds like a guy who potentially could be coached up, if he's willing to put in the work. Playing speed and burst can be improved by the right training. 5) last dark horse: Bryan Thompson, UDFA from Utah and AZ State. 6'1", 195 lb, 32 5/8" arms, 4.54s 40. https://www.profootballnetwork.com/arizona-state-2023-nfl-draft-scouting-reports/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Thompson_(American_football) Didn't do much in college, but the Bills brought him in and quietly kept him on the PS all last season. PFN had some good things to say about him pre-draft: " OK Fellow Bills Fans, that's all I got. Since Beane made a reference to sometimes the guys on the roster can elevate, but they have to prove it (and referenced Terrell Bernard) I thought this might be of interest. Anyone else got any tea to spill on these guys? Edit: listened to Beane's presser again to clarify that he said "young guys on the roster who can ascend" ie, he's not talking about Mack Hollins or Curtis Samuel

@Shaw66, where did he say something that was clear to you that he'd like to have a "true number 1 guy"? He started off the presser saying that in Stefon Diggs, you're talking about a guy who for 4 years filled a #1 role. He went on to say that "we have not filled a number 1 role. We have a group of guys with different skill sets, would we like to add to it at some point, yes, but I'm not sitting here thinking we have a glaring hole" He then went on to say sometimes you have young guys on your roster that you believe can ascend, but they have to prove it, too. A lack of #1 WR is a pretty glaring hole, IMO, if you believe you need one. But, I will admit that I have not made it through the entire interview, so I'd love to be pointed at ~where he said that, unless it was in a theoretical "yeah, we'd run to the podium for Ja'Maar Chase" kind of way? I agree that Beane very deliberately left it open that he wouldn't exclude anything, but I do believe Beane suggested that he wouldn't do it - all the stuff about not wanting to give up next year's #1 pick, not expecting to trade the #2 pick from the Diggs trade etc etc.

I don't remember last year's press conference as being so definite "probably not drafting a TE". But yeah, I agree with your overarching theme. I think Beane tells the truth (mostly), just not "the whole truth, and nothing but the truth".

There's some more detail from Murray quoted here, though he doesn't name the target areas https://lastwordonsports.com/nfl/2024/04/17/latavius-murray-free-agent-stem-cells/

Keep in mind that Beane can be very specific about what he says - and while I think he tells the truth, it's not necessarily the whole truth. He said "he hadn't called" any of the guys in the top-10. I'm sure that's the truth. It may not be the whole truth. It doesn't rule out discussions at the Sr Bowl, Combine, or NFL Annual Meeting. I would bet Beane knows very well what would be wanted for one of the top 10 draft choices to move all the way back to 28, from such discussions, and he knows it's a price he isn't inclined to pay. I think the more cogent point is that he mentioned stockpiling resources when he knew they were going to be trying to draft a QB - things like trading Cordy Glenn to move up from 21 to 12. The only thing Beane has done that could remotely be considered in that light, is trading Diggs, and it's not for much (2025 2nd)

Great summary, Thanks for this. I will say, I think Beane was trying a little too hard to persuade everyone that he thinks the WR room is just fine and we'll be casually looking to add another piece or two at some point in the future, not anxiously perusing the draft board for guys who have "WR" listed for position as our draft picks approach. But I agree with you that all signs point to "disinclined to make a big splash to move up to the top-10" I thought it was interesting that Beane mentioned "guys who are already on the roster" contributing at WR and made an analogy to Terrell Bernard who had to "prove it" that he could step up. Khalil, after the end of the season, I think has left no doubt he can play in the league although as a #1 or #2 is a good question. Does anyone think he might have been referring to Justin Shorter, last year's 5th round pick?

I like a man with a great sense of humor. Of course, we'd have to take on $106M or so in dead cap ($113 minus this year's salary), but what are a few $100 million or so between friends?

LOL. I would think Brandon Beane would look forward to a pre-draft media session with all the enthusiasm a gentleman brings to his annual prostate exam. He knew he was going to get barbequed about trading away Diggs, and really, what can he say? "We might trade up, or we might trade back, or we might stand pat. I cant tell you." "We don't expect to trade the pick we got for Diggs, but I can't tell you we won't" It's like the Tolkein quote "Go not to the Elves for council, for they will say both No and Yes". I expected to see Beane's ears elongate up and grow pointy as he spoke. He's also very careful about what he says. "I haven't called". That doesn't exclude discussions during the Combine or Sr Bowl or NFL Meetings, does it? I'd bet Beane knows very well what it would take to move up into the top 10 slots, despite not calling.

I apparently lost my Nick Wrong P*nis nose .jpg I just realized this This makes me sad

I understand! My point is that it shows Beane is willing to trade back if the circumstances are right. He said he had a great trade-back he really liked on tap if it hadn't worked out to get Dalton Kincaid. Clearly he has a track record of trading up in the 1st round - I spelled it all out here. TL;DR in the last 5 years, he's traded up 2x, stood pat 2x, and swapped for a player (Diggs) once.

I mean, some of the responses Bills fans have made in response to Stef on social media do remind me of a saying we used to have about our family: "You can dress them up, and you can take them out to dinner....but then you kind of want to leave them there." They weren't pretty, let's call it straight. I heard what Joe Buscaglia had to say about how intelligent and self-aware Stefon Diggs was, and I'm sure when it comes to general intelligence and so forth Buscaglia is right. But I just can't see Diggs as very self-aware or having high "emotional intelligence" overall - more as someone who has charisma and can create a feeling of connection with someone else *when he wants to*, but it's not bone-deep genuine for most people. An example of why I think that would be a tweet Diggs made at the end of the 2022 Blizzard, when it was known that there were over 40 deaths attributed to the blizzard. At that time, continued restricted travel and closed businesses meant many people weren't able to get out and get needed supplies for their children or get needed care for their elders; and hardships would continue due to lost wages from blizzard-induced closures. Diggs tweeted something about how he was having to cook for himself, "0 of 5 stars do not recommend". It was mildly humorous and probably intended to be entertaining, but in context it came across tone-deaf and self-absorbed. A handful of other small things like that.

I also thought it was interesting that when the media asked him about whether it amounted to playing with a "second team", he specifically mentioned that he's been with Micah and Po "since I've been here, right?" and that losing them was going to hurt as far as being able to come in and talk to them not just about football but about life. Further in, asked about transitioning from Mitch Morse at C josh said "I love Mitch with every ounce of my being, he's one of the greatest dudes in the entire world, I truly mean that, and I think if you talk with anyone else they'd say the same. A lot of wisdom that he had, I wish him nothing but the best in Jacksonville. I got to spend a little bit of time with him the last couple of weeks, gonna miss him for sure." Near the end, when asked about Micah's charity softball tournament he said the same thing about Hyde that he was "one of the premier humans on this planet; his heart is always in the right place" and "he's meant so much to me and my career here, just being someone I could lean on, someone I could talk to, someone I could vent to, I hope he would say the same about me and I cherish our friendship." 1) I thought it was interesting - Tre' White has been here longer than Josh as well, but he didn't mention him in the same way 2) Josh came across as well-prepared to be asked about Diggs, but the things he did say - about "my lasting memory of Stef will be the receiver who helped me become the QB that I am today, and I'll always thank him for that" - didn't come across with nearly the same genuineness or intensity as what he said about Morse or Hyde or Po. For the "Josh doesn't work in the offseason" crowd, at about 6:30 in Josh talks about how he's "gotten some PT work the last couple months, making sure I'm staying on top of that and making sure my body is in the best shape it can be"

I watched Josh's presser. He started out being asked about all the moves that had been made, and he talked about losing a lot of veteran leadership "Stef being one of them". I thought that set a good context of Stef being only one of the losses, not necessarily the most important or serious even. He said he texted Stef "thanking him for everything he did for me and always have a spot in my heart for him and love that guy like a brother and wish him nothing but the best". Later in the press conference, Wawrow I think it was talked about fun vignettes with Stef and then Stef yelling at him and asked what would be Allen's lasting memory of Stef here in Buffalo? Josh obviously had a well-thought-out well-crafted reply: "my lasting memory of Stef will be the receiver who helped me become the QB that I am today, and I'll always thank him for that". I thought that was a great "high road" to take, and I hope that puts a cork in it as far as the Buffalo media is concerned (fat chance, I guess) I also wondered if Stef has been asked about Josh and what he's had to say about it? (But not enough to hunt down his interviews since the trade and listen). Rightly or wrongly, I have the impression that Stef is a guy who sees the speck in his brother's eye far more clearly than the log in his own. I think the same could be said by Stef of Josh, that Josh made him the receiver he is today as much as he made Josh the QB that he is today - and I wondered if Stef would see it that way.

If you can spare the time from composing the above, did you happen to have an answer to this query? We note that you're moving far along beyond any claim to facts/stats to your personal surmise about what Josh wants or what Josh is choosing. News flash: you have no clue on these points. Neither do (most) of the rest of us, but most of the rest of us aren't projecting our opinions about it.

In 2022, Beane did trade back twice, from 57 to 60 and then 60 to 63, before drafting James Cook So it's not as though he's never traded back.