Beck Water

Tony Eason maybe?

I think I'm about to where I'll give up, but riddle me this: where did the Bills rank for # of defensive plays? TOP? Yes, it would certainly be concerning if Maye and the Pats shredded the Bills on 3rd downs and moved the ball with relative ease

It's been said enough that I think it probably was true. Kraft thought they had a roster that was better than 8-8 or they wouldn't have fired Carroll. 5-11 1st year, lost first 2 games, seat hot. Brady did exactly what he was asked to do in that Charlie Weis offense: make the right pre- and post-snap read and make the right decision on where to go with the ball.

It's a tough game for tough people. Players get hurt. Travis Henry's been hurt some seasons. Saquon Barkley got hurt. Not sure what's your point?

If KJ Hamler could separate against starting NFL defenses, he'd still be here. He had 6 years with 3 teams to show what he could do.

Sure, it doesn't tell the whole story. Especially I've pointed out many times that if a team differs a lot in their defensive rank by points against compared to yards against, it warrants a further look. In this case, it points out that the Bills were opportunistic about punching the ball out or intercepting it. But those are defensive skills too, can you acknowledge that? To be that good at punching out the ball or intercepting it, means it's a skill they practice and study for. It also points out that the Bills defensive philosophy, when they have a comfortable lead which they did in something like 6 or 7 games, sometimes isn't too worried about giving up yards. Your points about 3rd down D and 1st downs given up are valid, but so are points where the D ranked in QB knockdowns and pressure percentage (10th and 13th I believe), in hurries (7th); also, in Tackles for Loss (7th). I specifically look at the first 3, because that's one of the factors that drives interceptions. Overall the view I'm trying to convey is 1) turnovers don't happen in a vacuum, they represent team effort represented by some metrics 2) I don't think it tells the whole story to focus on two metrics and say "see, the defense was really a bottom feeder". "One Mo Lewis hit away from the unemployment line" - Bart Scott I actually think if McDaniels had stayed in NE instead of taking the HC gig in Las Vegas, there was a decent chance Mac Jones developed into a decent QB. I think he had flaws, but I also think McDaniel would have refined the offense towards what he did well.

Well, Bradford clearly wasn't his "type". But he was allowed to pick his QB in Denver (where as HC he was for sure running the offense) when he traded Cutler for Orton. He was allowed to pick his QB in Las Vegas, releasing Carr and signing Jimmy Garappolo to the Big Bucks. Offensive success did not follow.

https://www.buffalobills.com/video/khalil-shakir-whatever-it-takes-to-win-buffalo-bills Start of the interview. Shakir is notably unenthused when asked about how Stefon Diggs will be received and answers "no idea". He swallows and looks to the side as though seeking counsel from a Bills PR handler (??) then offers "he was here before, and I learned so much from him about the game, but as for the fans, no idea." Notably more enthused when talking about our offense and how the "everybody eats" mentality only works if "every single individual" is really bought in to that.

I admit the +2 job McDaniels did with Mac Jones. My opinion of him as OC is strongly influenced by his time in St Louis, where I had a ring-side seat to his destruction of Sam Bradford (who resurrected himself x3 with Shottenheimer and Shurmur, proving he could actually play QB) From what I hear, McDaniels also was hugely involved with the offensive design and playcalling in Las Vegas and the results were....not good.

Yes, points. Why should one "please" not tell you points per game given up? Points, after all, win games? Yes, the Bills had an opportunistic defense that forced a lot of turnovers. They led the league in % of opponent drives ending in an offensive TO. If you want to make some argument for the Bills being "bottom 12 defense", please proceed but make it more than "because that's what they looked like to my lil' 'ol Mark IV eyeballs" if you please. "Except for turnovers the defense was bottom 5" kind of sounds a bit like "except for THAT, Mrs Lincoln, how did you like the play?"

Including pass receptions, Jacobs averaging 22.5 touches per game. Jonathan Taylor, same. Bucky Irving, same. Saquon Barkley, 23. Christian McCaffrey, 25. You wanna do touches from scrimmage, gotta do them all. Still on par. Irving is 5'10, 195. I grant the other guys are stockier and more muscular.

Edit: OK, you guys rolling your eyes at me. So what do you want? Beane to trade a 2nd round pick for a QB so Benford can sit on the bench? So Tre White can sit on the bench? What exactly do you want?

Coaches need players. The Tenn offense was built around "pick your poison". Run over you with Derrick Henry; if you sell out to stop Henry, throw over the top to AJ Brown. Replacing AJ Brown with Bobby Trees absolutely lopped off one of their main branches (see what I did there?) and losing their starting QB 6 games in to 2023 sealed the deal. Vrabel absolutely got screwed on personnel by his GM and we have to mind that.

17th right now, looks like.

I mean, anyone can say anything. But you need to justify what you say, to have any meaningful discussion. So what's your justification? Example: At the point where McDermott stole Mac Jones lunch money on Dec 26, 2021 in Foxboro, he was 8-2 in the preceding 10 games, with one loss in OT vs the Cowboys. No one was calling him a bad QB. There was a lot of press of him as a ROY frontrunner and the next thing. Normally sensible podcasters like Brett Kollman were cutting videos titled "Mac Jones Terrifies Me". Before a season of Matt Patricia as OC ruined him and Frank Reich and Sean Mcdermott ruthlessly dissected his weaknesses, he was actually regarded as good, and promising. So exactly why is Maye going to torch this defense?

Phillips is, unfortunately, made of glass these days.

I didn't see it either. Longest run was 22 yds. Yardage split between 3 backs. They were running with some success from the starting drive, where they went right down the field for a TD. I think they got away from the run more than they should have, but that's where watching the game would be needed. NE broke a ST TD, got great field position off a missed FG and a 30 yd return. NE went into the half with a 28-6 lead.

I think this is a fair analysis. I see the offensive effort as more nuanced - I think there are defensive coverages we've perforated like swiss cheese, and defensive coverages we've struggled against. I think we've given our best effort at times. I also respect Vrabel as a coach, and I believe McDermott won't spare any effort to ensure the team is ready to play.

I think our MO has been being driven by what teams show us. If NE plays man and we can beat their coverage, we'll throw. We seem to be struggling against zone, whether by play design or receiver ability to read and react, unclear.

That would be why CAR ran for 129 yds (4.6 ypc) against them? They shut down the Raiders, Dolphins, and Steelers I'll give them that, but the Dolphins and Steelers haven't had much luck running on anyone. The Raiders hadn't had much luck until they played Da Bears and would have won handily if Geno Smith wasn't throwing it to the wrong uniform.

He's a 2nd year QB whose record was 3-9 last year. Historically, McDermott has taken hot young QB, shaken them upside down, and stolen their lunch money all while smiling and talking them up "show me a QB who's been playing better" before the game. Now. McD may not be able to do that this season, because the cast of players are different and there are indications of some confusion on our defense that needs to get ironed out fast. But the presumption of coaching superiority being granted to Vrabel and McDaniel is mind-boggling to me. We struggled with Tennessee under Vrabel because they had this wrecking ball named Derrick Henry. McDermott's record vs Tenn under Vrabel is 3-2, with one of the losses being a blowout (the Tuesday game after the Tennessee Covid kerfluffle) and one of them being a close loss arguably decided by some execution issues (although one could blame McDermott for going for a win rather than a FG and overtime I guess). I would expect a Vrabel coached team to be tough, disciplined, and have no quit in them. McDaniel knows him some offense and given a cast who can execute what he designs, he's good. I expect a tough game. But reading some posters in this thread, they seem to believe that Vrabel and McDaniel are due for Coaching Canonization in a blaze of golden light, while McDermott and Babich are something you clean off your shoe soles after walking down a messy sidewalk. That's not what the record says.

Maybe. Where did this notion that Josh McDaniels is an unrelenting offensive genius come from? As HC the offensive genius has a win record of 0.337 As OC of the St Louis Rams, 2-14 (1-9 with a QB that had gone 7-9 the previous year as a rookie). Bradford looked like he simply couldn't play. Next year under Schottenheimer, could play again. Huh. As OC of NE with a QB not named Brady, 17-19. He had Mac Jones looking good, I will grant that. Meanwhile Bobby Babich coached the #11 defense in the NFL last year. I'm not trying to say that the Bills are going to blow out the Pats. They have their problems this year. But to my eyes, the problems are more related to the Jimmies and the Joes than the Xs and the Os or the brain power advantage. For years, the Bills had the advantage of a safety duo that was mentally elite. They read and reacted impeccably. We don't have that now; we don't even have the mental level that we had last year with Hamlin and Rapp. Maybe Bishop and Rapp will level up, maybe they won't. I'm just trying to understand where this Bills fan perception of inexorable mental advantage is coming from.

Would you care to provide specifics as to "all the things we struggle with"? Would you care to provide specifics as to in what way "we are going to be severely outcoached"? Win % as HC McDermott 0.667 (includes a year with Tyrod Taylor as QB and two years where Josh Allen was developing/figuring it out) Vrabel 0.544 (Tannehill QB, Henry RB) So that "severely out coached does need a little bit of explanation or granularity as a blanket claim "Willing to do" not equal to "able to do"

For Toast Sake, you guys. Is this a Bills fan board, or a Pats fan board? And I'm not talking about the visiting Pats fans. The BBFS is strong here.

Everyone knows I'm a big numbers and stats guy. But here's the thing about the beginning of the season: how meaningful is it to talk about "season average points/yards" at a point in the year where the game with us is 1/4 of the stats for the season?