FireChans

Not to sound arrogant, but I don’t find those guys to have as trustworthy opinions as others do.

03/17/2024 → 6/1/2024 2024 Dead Cap: $49,596,000 2024 Cap Savings: $-21,742,000 Post 6/1 release: 2024 Dead Cap: $8,849,0002025 Dead Cap: $22,247,0002024 Cap Savings: $19,005,000 they make a special point to delineate the 2024 salary guaranteeing on 3/17 but still giving the 6/1 date after. So….

Spoilers: the dude who had to change schools because he couldn’t beat out JAKE FROMM may not be any good.

I wouldn’t call the bolded “terrible.” Terrible would be like Diggs turned out to be Zay Jones with less fighting for Jesus. You give them reasons to move on. In the form of compensation. In a trade.

Look at post 6/1.

My barometer for “was this a good decision” is not “did we win a Super Bowl.” Because if that’s you’re barometer, then Clyde Edwards Helaire was a great draft pick and the Josh Allen pick was not a success.

there is a difference in 2024 money saved. Not 2025

The only one being definitive is you lol. I haven’t seen a single person say that Diggs is definitely going to be moved this off-season. This is probably why you keep getting sucked into talking about it. Someone says, “it’s possible” and you fly off the handle a bit arguing about why it’s NOT POSSIBLE. In a fun “trade for Terry McLaurin” thread.

Was the Diggs trade not smart? The Jets and Dolphins crumbled because their QB’s ain’t it. The Rams won the Super Bowl with the top heaviest roster in NFL history.

McLaurin, if traded, is going to cost Washington $16.8M against their cap in dead money. I don’t think he is have a cap hit of $18.5M for the team trading for him. He could walk after 2025. Or demand out sooner, because he hates it there. Diggs got out of his first stop with more years on his deal. To be clear, if I was Washington, I wouldn’t trade him. But bad franchises gonna bad franchise. So, “they wouldn’t want to do that” doesn’t fly as an argument for me lol.

That’s what it’s saying, yeah. Now that I do the math in my head, it may be less. But it is workable, with savings. Old enough to not be in their five year plan, particularly with contract renegotiations around the corner. He also may plan on walking because he probably hates it there?

I find that spotrac is the most accurate website IRT cap intricacies and they say the numbers are absolutely clear that we can move off from Diggs this year and make financial sense doing so. His salary becoming completely guaranteed on 3/17 is actually noted on their website. Prior to 3/17, we lose 3M against the cap to cut him. After 3/17, we lose 21M to cut him. After 6/1, we save 19M in 2024 to cut him. Post 6/1 releases effectively spread the dead cap over two seasons, which is why it’s more affordable, however it means you are still taking on the same hit in the next year, i.e. the 2025 hit remains the same regardless if he is cut post 6/1 in 2024 or early in 2025. So anyone saying it makes sense to do it in 2025 but not post 6/1 2024 is 100% completely wrong, because the cap savings in 2025 are the same So, unfortunately, 3/17 ain’t gonna change anything lol.

Does that change his post 6/1 designation money?

We talk a lot about DHop, about Evans, about all these older dudes. Let’s talk about some younger WR’s who have to be sick wasting their careers away. Terry will be 29 years old in the upcoming season. He is entering the last year of his “big” contract before the potential out. And he is an “old guard” player with new and shiny head coach Dan Quinn taking the reins. If traded pre 6/1, he will have a cap hit of $7M to his new team, which is relatively cheap. With Stef on his way out potentially next year, this sets Josh up with an “in his prime” WR ready to take over as WR1. Stef could also be included in the package, but then we would be talking post 6/1 otherwise the financials get wonky. Is he intriguing? Is he an upgrade over $10M AAV for a Mooney or Curtis Samuel? His price tag may be as high as a first or a second and other stuff.

How does it cost us extra money to do it this year? My understanding is that, on the whole, it saves us more money to get it done this year.

Multifactorial. And some not his fault. Inconsistency and talent- fans HATE players that can play at a high level one week and disappear the next. Give me around 4 and 40 every week than a 2 TD 120 yard game one week and a goose egg the next. He’s also the same player he was in 2020. Gabe’s fault. mental mistakes - there’s enough of a lowlight reel of Josh throwing bad balls and picks because Gabe isn’t where he expects. This may not be all on Gabe, but it’s seemingly only him a majority of the time. So I’m going with Gabe’s fault. Expectations of a WR2 in a Josh Allen offense - Really, what folks want is a WR2 without the problems above, which is really like borderline WR1. Lots of folks have been clamoring for upgrades to the boundary WR position for 3 years. Beane and the FO have trotted him out as the presumptive starter to the chagrin of many, as Gabe has no elite traits and puts up counting numbers because of his target share (which mercifully trickled off this season). Not Gabe’s fault. Gabe Davis is another classic “good but not good enough” Buffalo Bill. Roster is filled with these guys.

I think that Beane has been guilty of flip-flopping team building philosophies trying to meet in the middle, sometimes even in the same draft. Our top picks, too often, have been where need meets BPA. Which is fine sometimes, but sometimes you pass on better talent to fill more pressing roster holes. Like Boogie Basham, whose ceiling was a JAG level player. In the later rounds, Beane has done extraordinarily well at just targeting guys that can play, which is why we have a solid hit rate on players who are NFL caliber, if not superstars. For me, the Kincaid pick wasn’t that safe. To draft ANOTHER TE when you just gave your developed 3rd round TE a big contract is actually risky. It’s targeting the best player left on your board and expecting the coaches to make it work (shout out Ken Dorsey on that regard). The Torrence pick to me was clear as their annual “BPA meets need” pick and it worked out so far so all’s well that ends well. But once Saffold predictably played awful in 2022, you knew IOL was coming high. In the NFL draft, you can be right for the wrong reasons and wrong for the right reasons, and the ultimate barometer is not said and done until about 3-4 years after. Even the Chiefs took CEH in the first, a colossal blunder. They won two Superbowls after so who cares? But the process was clearly wrong there imo. Beane’s FA philosophy early in his career was bargain bin shop a handful of guys, and whoever panned out was the starter, and he would cut or trade away the rest, particularly on OL. That gave him a lot of draft flexibility. Now we are dealing with a much tighter cap, and he can’t do that.

Hm, I don’t think so. I think the homeruns CAN come from anywhere, but I gotta figure your best chance is still in the first 60 picks. To me, Benford, Bernard (so far), Shakir are all good picks. It’s great to get NFL talent in the late rounds. None of them are homeruns. To me, a homerun is “would this player have been a great pick no matter what round you took them in.” Milano was a homerun. He’s a more impressive homerun bc he was a fifth rounder, but if he was a late second rounder, he’d still be a phenomenal pick. If you look at the difference between us and KC, or the Niners, they have way more homeruns, not just solid picks. It’s the one black mark against Beane. The best year of players this regime has brought in was unquestionably 2017. White, Milano, Dawkins, Poyer, Hyde have been 5 of our 7 best players for 7 years. It’s why the roster is old. It’s why the cap needs to be stretched now. Greg is just another guy we hoped could be one of our best players but isn’t.

Diggs was drafted in 2015 in the fifth round. Justin Jefferson was drafted 22nd overall. Pro-personnel and college scouting is such a different can of worms, I don’t think Diggs should be included there. Either way, as you say, too many doubles and triples instead of homeruns. And Greg is in that bucket.

I feel like I made a very strong case in the OP that Groot is clearly not a bust, but may not be the top tier edge rusher we need. Ultimately, being a good run defending DE is exactly what Shaq Lawson made his career on, and he walked in FA as well after his rookie deal. And the teams that paid (read: overpaid) regretted it because he wasn’t a difference-maker. Devin Singletary was also a “successful” draft pick, but there’s clearly something missing from our player acquisitions because these guys aren’t difference-makers. And all you do is fan-shame lmao.

You don’t have to be anything you don’t wanna be. If you are happy with “Groot” and his 5 sacks, that’s fine.

Meh. I'm sure Oliver got some favorable matchups and just failed to make an impact. Stars make plays.

He played more snaps this year than ever in his career IIRC.

Dawkins is our best OL man. You think that’s the most favorable matchup for Chris Jones? I mean, I could see you saying that if he toasted Spencer Brown. The bottom line is our highly paid player lost his rep to their highly paid player. Exactly what happened with Eddy all game. I don’t think Veach is a magician either, I think the Chiefs have gotten very lucky and drafted some great players. Just like the Seahawks did when they drafted Russel Wilson and Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman etc etc. Trey Smith would be a great guard anywhere. Humphrey would be a great C anywhere. I firmly believe there’s an HUGE element of luck to drafting personnel. Look at the Seahawks, I don’t think they have gotten as many great players in the last 10 years as they did from 2010-2012. The bottom line is Dawkins is paid lots of money to make plays. He didn’t. Ed is paid lots of money to make plays. He didn’t. Rousseau doesn’t make a lot of plays and is about to make lots of money, im not sure if he should. For whatever reason, the Chiefs find dudes who get the job done. And that’s why they have All-pros everywhere and dudes who are gonna get PAID, like Sneed.

Fair enough. Talking strictly in the regular season, it concerns me that Greg, a physically dominant specimen and first round talent in year 3, can’t separate himself from old vets like a Leonard Floyd or guys like AJE.