FireChans

Would love to see this stat adjusted without kickers and ranked by kicker ability. The Ravens paying Justin Tucker a ton does not mean they are signing the Siran Neal’s of the world to $3M AAV

Ha ha ha Trent Sherfield was a team leader? He was here for a cup of coffee. No cared about him. They weren’t wrong either, watching him flub Allen dimes in the playoffs. Are people really upset with our 4-2 Bills?

Neal was paid $3M AAV

Because I hate special teams players and signing B+ STers that are F- WR’s/LB’s/DB’s instead of C STers that are D WR’s/LB’s/DB’s is bad strategy

It all makes sense when you look at it through the prism of “there is no master plan” lol. 2 years ago, Beane made Diggs a top 5 WR in terms of money with 2 years left on his current deal. This was to keep him happy. It didn’t work, and he had to cut bait before the extension even kicked in. This pigeon-holed them into their ultimate need draft, where they needed a WR, a saftey and a DT and somehow picked all three (but traded back so they could get all 3.) There is no plan. There’s no secret new method to team-building they are undergoing. This was the most reactionary off-season in quite a while.

Every year, it seems like one of our career backup/ST guys end up playing in games where they really shouldn’t. 2023 was this phenomenon on overdrive in the playoffs, as we had Baylon Spector playing some LB, Siran Neal trying to cover Travis Kelce, Trent Sherfield alligator arms etc etc. So who is going to be the patsy in 2024? Hard mode: No Mack Hollins.

Just like Rousseau got more sacks this year than last year because he played more snaps. under city folks. This team hasn’t had a real pass rusher since Mario Williams.

Meh, the defense has not produced at a SB level in the regular season. I’m not knocking Allen. I’m saying that I think he carries the offense and the team in the regular season and the postseason. Cousins could not do either. Ergo, we would be a much worse team with Cousins. Theres no way to prove either of us right. Suffice it to say that I think it’s possible this coaching staff and roster in 2024 could squeak out a 9-7 run with Cousins potentially and a WC exit. That’s their ceiling. Their floor would be around 6 wins. In 2020, yeah maybe they win 11 games and get to the divisional round. And that’s with a pretty good QB in the NFL. If this team lost Allen for any amount of time in 2024, going just under .500 would be a success. I would expect them to be winless during that stretch. I think this roster actually sucks now. Luckily, we have Josh which means he’s gonna drag us to 10 wins, but this roster is not SB caliber or even close. I can list a bunch of teams I’d rather surround Allen with than the 2024 Bills. We have exactly one star in Matt Milano who plays arguably the least important defensive position lol. also, I do find it ironic that you spent so much time during the 2023 regular season blaming the defense for their mishaps resulting in a 6-6 start and a season on life support, but have now changed your tune that they were “SB caliber” lmao.

Josh Allen putting up 50+ TD’s to kick around the garbage teams in our division and the garbage QBs that float around the NFL and make up 2/3rds of your schedule is what ends up happening. the belt tightens in the playoffs, and suddenly your SB level play QB can’t make up that difference as easily. The Bills have the luxury of having the best QB on the field, by a lot, in almost every game they play in the regular season. That translates to a lot of regular season wins. With Cousins, that delta in talent becomes a lot smaller. compensating for the IOL play in 2022 is just something we take for granted. Josh, Mahomes and Lamar are probably the only QB’s in the league that could have had any success behind that horrific group. I think Josh raises our teams floor much much much more than you think he does.

Oh come on bro. We need Josh to put up 50+ TD’s by himself EVERY YEAR. He was the 4th highest rushing QB last year, 3rd in 2022 and 2021. We just watched him battering ram us from a .500 team to the 2 seed last season. Beane built a great team in 2020. we have been declining every year since. What you consider “in vogue,” I consider to be an accurate representation of our falling talent level. The 2020 team would’ve cleaned the clocks of the 21, 22, 23 and now, most importantly, the 24 team. I think Cousins takes the 2020 Bills to the playoffs. I think maybe the 21 team too. The 2022 team misses. The 2023 team misses. The 2024 team goes 3-14. With Josh, the 24 team will win 10 games. That’s a feather in the cap of the GM who picked a QB worth 7+ wins on his own. A black eye for a GM who puts a crappy talent level around that QB.

2017 FA (McD) was also the year we brought in two of our best defenders in Poyer and Hyde. Really, the talent-regression we have undergone over the last two years is in large part because that was 7 years ago and a lot of those difference makers got hurt or old.

Lynch and co obviously botched the Lance pickup, but they routinely have one of the most talented rosters in football. They went to two SB‘s with two QB’s who honestly have no business being SB QB’s IRT their talent levels. Their lack of success at finding a QB is a black eye for them, but their accomplishments despite not having a QB is a real feather in their cap at team-building. Like you said, they are propping up a dude who is not very good because they built a great roster around him. Fred Warner is a third round pick and a 3 time All-Pro. They paired him with Greenlaw who is a very good young player who may get an All-Pro nod soon in the fifth round. Ward is a very good corner. Hufunga is an All-Pro safety they got in the fifth round. They brought in Trent Williams for a song. Aiyuk in the late first and Deebo in the second, both All-Pros. The takeaway from the Niners is that they are proof positive that having arguably the most talented roster in the league (which is an accomplishment) still means you may not get over the hump with a far worse QB.

QB is the most important position, but we already have one….

Vegas has us ~6th in SB odds. Sounds about right to me.

What about 33?

That’s true. Did they also hit on elite talent?

I can’t be making a strawman when I have been making the same point for like 3 pages and you have been disagreeing with every single one lol. I physically CANNOT be more consistent with my argument. If you are now saying that the 2018 and 2019 off seasons were missed opportunities for draft capital (which is the point I have made for, again, like 3 pages) and that the Bengals did hit on some elite talent with their early picks, why are you still arguing with me? Lol

So, to the bolded, my point of contention is that: We had a down year, in 2018. We also traded back in 2017 to add an extra first round pick for the next year. In those two off seasons, we picked players at #7, #9, #16, #38. Picks we can all agree are not bottom of the first and bottom of the second rounds. They are the highest picks that the Bills have had since Josh became Josh. In those two off-seasons, we drafted 1 elite player with those picks. Which is not enough to win a Super Bowl, even though the elite player was a QB. If we had drafted a HoF TE in the third, it wouldn’t matter as much. But we didn’t. If we had drafted a few elite offensive linemen in the late rounds, it wouldn’t matter as much. But we didn’t. if we had drafted an elite pass rusher in the second, it wouldn’t matter as much. But we didn’t. The Ravens and Chiefs haven’t had many down years between the two of them. But they have found more stars than us. The Bengals have had more down years than us. But they have also found more stars than us. So, imo, not finding stars when we had relatively high picks is a blown opportunity. Finding stars in the mid rounds is very difficult and ultimately very predictable. Your top 10 pick needs to be a home run. It wasn’t. Your trade up to 16 has to be a player you think is worth a second contract with us. He wasn’t. If one or two of those picks had been better players, we may be discussing if the Bills can 3peat SB runs today. But they weren’t, so we aren’t. We are instead discussing why we have continuously been the 3rd or 4th best AFC team with a QB who has been the best or second best QB in the NFL. Beane isn’t perfect. The expectation to be perfect is not what I’m talking about. IIRC, Ed Oliver was the consensus 1B DT pre-draft. In a redraft, with the benefit of hindsight, he would obviously be lower than that. But you could make the argument that it wasn’t a miss, especially because he’s not a bad player, he’s just not a great player. But you cannot make the argument that we have not had chances to get elite players higher than pick 28 because of our oh-so terrible draft position because we are so damn good all the time. We have had chances, and we didn’t execute them, save one (the most important one).

Tee Higgins was hurt and his QB was hurt. Did you watch the games lol He will sign a bigger contract than both Eddie and Edmunds because …. wait for it…. he’s worth more. Kyle Hamilton was drafted by the Ravens in the first, he’s a star. Trent McDuffie was drafted by the Chiefs in the first, he’s a star. They also got Karlaftis who had 10.5 sacks last year in his second season. The logic of some of y’all confound me a little bit. Our GMing is great. Our QB is the best in the league. Our team is great. Our coaches are great. How come the Bengals have beaten the Chiefs in the playoffs and gotten to a Super Bowl before we have when we are superior in everything? How have the Ravens gotten to a more recent AFCCG than the Bills have if we are superior in everything? How are the Chiefs defending back to back SB titles if we are so great? Maybe, just maybe, some of these things aren’t so great.

So trading UP for Edmunds is a far bigger failure than just sitting and taking him at #22? Is that what you are trying to say? also spoiler alert, our 1st two rounds are also full of ok at best guys lol

Omg, this is getting absurd. you think that because we traded up to pick #16 on Edmunds, he doesn’t count as using the 16th pick in the draft on him? You think that because we traded up to pick #7 for Josh, it doesn’t count as the 7th pick?

I would kill to have a Mario Williams on the Bills today, he was an absolute force and probably one of the best big market FA acquisitions in Bills history

I didn’t say the Bengals haven’t drafted busts. I said that when we had high picks when we were bad and picking high we didn’t nail as many as they did. I know folks have memory-holed the Bills picking in the top 10 with this current staff and Josh Allen but it happened. We also had 2 first rounders in 2018 because of the previous trade down. we didn’t get enough impact players with those picks. Folks are out here acting like we’ve been picking at #28 for Beano’s whole tenure and it just ain’t true.

Yeah, he is. you seem to think there’s a vast gulf between picks 5 and 33 and 9, 16 and 38. From a draft value perspective, 5 is 2184 points and 33 is 1228 points. That’s a total of 3412 points. 9, 16 and 38 are 1887, 1595, 1157 for a total of 4639 points So really the Bills non-QB picks have been worth more than the Bengals. And they have drafted impact players with those picks, and we have not. Its kinda undeniable. https://overthecap.com/draft-trade-value-chart#google_vignette