FireChans

I do know it. It's not a "personal grade," at all. It's completely numerical. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/position/_/year/2024/table/active/type/contract_average/sort/wr/dir/desc Oh GDI, the Bills are bottom 6. Back to the drawing board. Anyway, we are bottom 6 in AAV of WR's. I can re-do my analysis if you'd like, I doubt it changes much. I think Keon Coleman ***** it up by not signing his contract til the afternoon lol. AAV by year of contracts, per Spotrac.

That exercise took me sooooooo long. If @eball doesn’t respond, I’m gonna go back to just making snide comments.

Aw man, this USA Today writer is upset that the Bills bold stance of releasing a punter who was accused of heinous ***** now “rings hollow.” Anyway.

This off-season? No way lol that would be so insane

Fair enough! In the bottom 5 units of the last 4 years, the QBs (that played the most) are: Heinecke, Big Ben, Carr, Cam Newton, Drew Lock, Matt Ryan, Jameis Winston, Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins, Lamar Jackson, Matt Stafford, Matt Ryan again, Justin Fields, Mariota, Jordan Love, Gardner Minshew, Kyler Murray, Derek Carr again, Kirk Cousins again. again, 1 playoff win between the crew. The top 5 units of the last 4 years: Kyler Murray, Jared Goff, Joe Burrow, Drew Brees, Teddy Bridgewater, Dak Prescott, Aaron Rodgers, Justin Herbert, Tom Brady, Kyler Murray again, Tua, Derek Carr, Geno Smith, Jimmy G, Tua again, Geno again, Baker, and Sam Howell. Now, at first glance, I think group two looks a bit better as a QB grouping. But for sake of argument, take Allen and Rodgers out because both were playing at MVP levels and that’s gonna skew the numbers a bit. The list below is closer to “league average” QB. Baker - 1 playoff appearance and win with the Bucs in the top 5 group Miami - 2 playoff appearances in the top 5 group Brady - 1 playoff appearance in the top 5 group (2022) Geno - 1 playoff appearance in the top 5 group Goff - 1 playoff appearance in the top 5 group lets look at some of their contemporaries in the bottom 5 group: Heinecke - 1 playoff appearance in the bottom Big Ben - 1 playoff appearance in the bottom (2020) Carr - 1 playoff appearance in the bottom (21) Jackson - 1 playoff appearance in the bottom (2022) Love - 1 playoff appearance and win in the bottom. I would argue the groups are at least comparable now. I probably lean towards the bottom group being better at the time they played. But that’s the whole point. A great WR group had Baker and Geno and Goff achieving the same success as Lamar or Jordan Love, who imo, are much better. Now the corollary could be that if you have an athletic franchise QB, they can drag a bottom 5 group to the WC round. But I think we all agreed on that before lol.

Do we have another kicker in camp? His career could be ova here. Dan Carpenter had the same thing happen to him.

Then it’s equally relevant who is throwing them the ball with a top 5 unit, right? I’m not discussing talent. I’m discussing pure contract numbers by AAV.

Based on how much the WR’s are paid or based on their win totals?

Big expensive WR's don't guarantee you anything. Agree with that. What do bottom 5 WR rooms guarantee you? In 2023, the 5 teams with bottom 5 WR rooms by AAV went 36-49, collectively. One team made the postseason and won 1 game. In 2022, the bottom 5 teams went 29-56, collectively. One team made the postseason and lost in the WC round. in 2021, the bottom 5 teams went 37-48, collectively. One team made the postseason and lost in the WC round. In 2020, the bottom 5 teams went 39-41, collectively. Two teams made the postseason, and both lost in the WC round. So a bottom 5 WR group, based on the last 4 seasons, doesn't really seem to be a recipe for success. Right? 1 team in the last 4 seasons WON a SINGLE playoff game. That's the peak of this strategy. For comparison, I can do top 5 WR room numbers. Would guarantee they are much better lol. Also, FYI, the Bills are bottom 5 as it stands in 2024.

So MVS and Mack Hollins are better than Diggs and Hill and Chase and Higgins? Is this the conclusion to draw from these ridiculous posts?

So you wouldn't take any of those players listed because they didn't win a playoff game last year? Chase/Higgins have been to a Super Bowl. Hill has been to 2 and won 1. How many SB appearances does Shavers and Isabella have again?

I have a wonderful photo of Keon getting caught from behind by a sloth-human hybrid player in a prehistoric Highmark Stadium, but it is too big to upload.

Fwiw, I think Brady is better than Peyton, and Peyton is 3-2 vs him in the postseason.

Here’s my criteria: Bills lose in the playoffs to any team not named the Chiefs, unless it’s in the Super Bowl, I’m done with Beane/McD. Full stop. Theres an argument that we are just second best in the conference and can’t get by the dynasty of our time. I happen to agree with that argument. But if we lose to the Texans or the Bengals again or the Ravens, then we are at best the third or 4th best team in the conference and that means it’s time to go.

Fred was a pass pro demon. Best way to keep yourself on the field. Just ask JJ Watt in EJ’s last game.

I loled

I think it could work. We have seen it work. Kubiak and Wade succeeded in Denver where John Fox failed and Fox got them to a Super Bowl! And who knows what that team does going forward if Peyton’s career didn’t end. There are other examples too. Idk man, we are talking about beating our head against the wall for 5 straight seasons. I agree the Chiefs are a modern day dynasty and they have our number and the better QB. But like what is the timeline here? When do we give someone else a shot to do better? When Josh is 35?

Do you think that’s retroactive though? you have nothing to fear because imo it’s already been spun that way and justified with Pegula’s blessing. It’s already come to pass. We will see no changes after 2024 unless the Bills win like 4 games (which won’t happen unless Josh misses the season).

Buddy, I know what happened at the end of the game lol. It doesn’t change the facts that any QB with 3+ TO’s in ANY loss, regardless of “getting the lead at the end,” is largely at fault for the loss. Period.

Okay fair enough. Do you think there’s an argument for changing coaches or schemes to bridge that gap in the short-term between the respective QB’s? I would have an easier time agreeing with McD should be fired next off-season if Beano wasn’t clearly doing a mini down-year rebuild. The roster is not Super Bowl caliber as it stands imo. Our #1 WR is Curtis ***** Samuel lol

There is no highly paid QB that can have a 3+ TO game that does not shoulder a large amount of blame for a loss. It’s very easy to be consistent here. Some folks struggle, and I’m not sure why. On a neutral team, if a QB plays bad, turns it over a lot and a team loses, they are a big reason why they lost. This is obvious. If the Jags didn’t win against the Chargers in that playoff game, Trevor Lawrence would DESERVEDLY be blamed for turning it over 4 times, regardless of making it close at the end. The whole 60 minutes matter. Only when it comes to Josh Allen do folks twist themselves into knots about how it really wasn’t his fault. If Josh doesn’t turn it over before half with a horrific decision, the Broncos score 3 less points and can’t win the game on a field goal. The whole game changes. These things matter. We can admit when Mahomes has horrible games. He lost them the Broncos game. He lost the Raiders game on Christmas with turnovers. Josh cost us the Broncos game and the Jets game. It’s elementary stuff.

Okay, maybe Burrow and Mahomes are just better. What is your solution to bridging the gap with Josh Allen under contract for the Bills?

Patrick Mahomes had a bad game against them. Probably cost his team the game. So did Josh. It’s very funny that we can admit these things for other QB’s but not our golden boy. Josh is allowed to have bad games and still be one of the best QB’s in football.

I don't really understand this logic? How many coaches in the NFL do you think can win 1 playoff game per year with Josh Allen? I'm not on the fire McD train, but I do think there's a little "damning with faint praise" here. I think Mike Tomlin wins a playoff game with Josh. I think both Harbaugh's could too. I think Reid could. I think BB could. I think Sean Payton could. I think all of the Shanny disciples could: LaFleur, McVay, KOC, McDaniel etc etc. I think Dan Campbell could. I think Doug Pederson could. The point differential stat is nice. Maybe it wouldn't be as good. But I would trade a worse point differential stat for going further in the postseason, personally. And I would think winning an additional postseason game or two or three would be worth slipping in the point differential over 5 years stat.

There are 2 massive problems in Philly: #1 Sirianni is a terrible coach #2 Jalen Hurts may not be a franchise QB It would not surprise me if that 2022 SB appearance is the furthest they ever get with those two on-board. They have an EXTREMELY talents roster on paper and they completely fell apart last season. They will regret not firing Sirianni last year and bringing in a new voice for that locker room. If they are .500 or worse through the first half of the season, I think Nick is donezo. They sorta Chargered themselves. Everyone knew Staley was a dead man walking and it ended up wasting a year of a talented group.