MasterStrategist

Great analysis and thank you, @GunnerBill. I think this could setup a "trade back" situation, for teams at the end of round 1. Some QB needy team selecting in the top 10, may not spend that capital on this crop but willing to part with their 2nd and 3rd to move up if "their guy" is still available (and many teams have varying opinions, no true #1 qb prospect this season). Couple this with a fewer 1st round graded players, maybe 20ish, and this presents a good chance teams will be looking to move up to 18-22 range, or out of round 1.

I think that's fair, my original thought was $9-10m per AAV, given cap likely to keep increasing value. 1 problem I see is if we give this to Jordan, then Micah is immediately underpaid (compared to Poyer). To me, both are worth similar $s, and I haven't done the research to see total value each player has received while in Buffalo, but may factor into decisions. On the other hand, I am a big supporter of Hamlin and think he could be ready to step up as a starter by 2023. Jordan has 2-3 great seasons left though, so my preference would be to keep him and Hyde working together.

I stand corrected, I misunderstood what was originally reported and what Joe was trying to communicate. Makes sense, thanks for clarifying. (and I can tell you certainly understand cap 😀).

Not sure if you're trying to be snarky, or just don't understand cap rules. Converting salary to bonus is a typical move, to create additional cap room in current season. He had a $1.5 base salary (fully guaranteed in 2022), according to Joe they converted it all to bonus. So Bates will receive that money immediately, and Bills get to spread the $1.5m across his 4 yr deal (hence saving the approx $1.2m). Not sure what's difficult to understand.

Long post, not sure it's accurate either. Bates had a $1.5m base salary for 2022, that's what Beane just converted; hence saving the exact amount against the cap that Joe B reported. Again, base salary was converted, not a guaranteed bonus.

Agree complelety. We are at least going to sign a FA, just depends if its a mid level ($3-5M range) or top end (probably 2 left, in Gilmore or trade for Bradberry, unless something unforeseen). Gilmore likely asking for something that could cost $8-12m in cap and Bradberrys current contract is ridiculous ($21m cap hit, would require reworking/extension). If our front office/coaches, think... 1. two or more off these are true: Tre ready by early season, believe Dane can be a #2 corner, and/or a rookie can step in as a starter or contribute immediately. Then likely we look for a mid level type. OR 2. two or more off these are true: flipped scenario above. then we could go after a Gilmore or Bradberry. I'd think scenario 1 is more likely, ie: wait until after draft (draft a corner in the round 1-3 range), and then sign a mid level guy.

Jahan Dotson, WR Kenneth Walker, RB

I guess it comes down to whether you think Dotson can play both inside and outside, which I think he can and he proved at Penn St against some solid competition. I think his versatility will be valued by our offensive staff, guess we shall see. I just can't get on board drafting a guy (like Watson), who is highly likely relegated to play outside only, unless he's can't miss. I'm not thinking he is, he's the definition of boom/bust. Not when we have Davis still. Davis may not have proven himself, enough yet, but think we should avoid blocking him from seeing the field (ie: Sanders, last yr).

Interesting you say this, then say Dotson is more of a slot Wr type. Isn't that an added bonus? Watson ran very few routes from the slot, I don't think he's a fit there. Which would essentially give us 2 strictly outside guys (Watson and Davis). Forcing us to play Diggs in the slot, if we put Watson, Davis and Diggs in 3 wr sets. Not sure how that adds value, then burns a 1st round pick.

Does he have versatility to play slot and outside? To me he doesn't, which means we relegate Diggs to slot anytime we would have him, Diggs and Davis in 3 wr sets. Not a fan of this.

I'll give 2...Big Ten alum. Give me speed and let's see anyone stop this offense. 1st round: Dotson. Playmaker who can play in the slot, move outside, has a 17 ypc average. 2nd best deep ball WR coming out in this class. Let him continue to add strength and learn alongside Diggs. This will be a trio of Wrs (Diggs, Davis, Dotson),would be extremely difficult to defend. 2nd round: keep adding to the offensive playmakers, and get Kenneth Walker RB. He is a similar RB to Motor, but with a completely different top gear...great vision, he hopefully makes it to end of round 2. We lacked offensive team speed last season. Take some pressure off Josh and get some guys who can make the homerun plays.

Fair enough, I think he got alot stronger heading into senior season, so I see him having ability to really flourish in a system like ours (moving all around). Especially think he could become a future WR1, learning beside Diggs. Unfortunately I think the Packers will use the acquired pick from Raiders to draft him at #21.

Just my opinion, but Dotson is a smoother route runner/fluid and will be the better NFL prospect. Watson obviously didn't play in a pass heavy offense, and he played at a much lower level, so there's some "projection" of course. Not the type of player I want in Round 1, if other proven guys are there.

Give me Jahan Dotson 1000x before Watson, at least in Round 1. If we wait until Round 2, Watson would be a nice trade up candidate. Dotson is the 2nd best deep ball WR in this class, and if you watch him play, reminds of AB (w/o the drama).

Again confused, because it's not like we need to come up with "new money" to sign Poyer, actually extending him would likely create more cap room in 2022. I think Beanes comment was about signing any new FAs, at least as of now. They have decent wiggle room available, if they want to extend or convert a couple players salaries to bonus $s. Beane is very methodical/calculated with his approach, so I trust he will budget accordingly.

Agree with this. I also think they should try tying him and Hyde to same contract length. To me, it's the duo not individual safety, that makes this tandem so good. Their communication, instincts, ability to both play a FS/SS role, mix up coverages, etc is what is so special. I don't think we get that with 1 and not the other. So I'm trying to keep the duo together for 2 more years. Aside, i do like Hamlin and thought he'd go in the 4th last year, thought we got good value.

Agree with 1st part, but you lost me on the extension/needing 1 yr deals to expire. If we extend him, it would likely open more cap space this season...allowing us to potentially target a vet corner and/or draft class money. Unless I'm misreading your post, it makes sense to extend now if we plan to anyways.

Agree, except I'm a big fan of Dotson and think he might be there at 25. The potential issue is that alot of teams in that 15-24 range will be considering WRs, also will be interesting how the inflated/recent WR contracts may impact draft strategy (ie: extra year of control for Rd1). Corner in Round 2 is ideal, IMO, someone who can compete with Dane and potentially hold down a spot until Tre is ready. Then focus on OL, rounds 3-4, rest of draft can be finding value/role players. Wouldn't be a surprise to see us move around in the 3rd-5th range, I think that will be a sweet spot for value this year at certain positions.

We "need" 1 starter, until Tre is ready. This defense can play well with a Dane Jackson, while we still have 2 all-pro safeties lining up behind him. I think we draft a corner, likely early, but would be shocked if we drafted 2 then also signed a FA (assuming you mean, a veteran). We have barely any cap space, let alone roster spots: Tre, Dane, early draft pick, Taron, Neal and Cam Lewis is likely our corner back group.

IMO, the biggest offseason needs: 1. Get more physical in the trenches: DTs-check, Shaq helps run D, Von is great, and Saffold improves 1 G spot. I think we will take another G, in the 2nd-4th range to compete with Bates. 2. Dynamic pass rusher: obviously Von checks this box. I could see us drafting a speed rusher type mid to late, or possibly bringing back Mario or Jerry if price is right. 3. Speed at skill positions: brought back McKenzie, and added Crowder. Like many, think our 1st two picks will be focused on "boundary" players, specifically athletic WR and CB. 4. Backup Qbs: now set 5. Get cheaper/less costly depth: with Josh contract about to get expensive, and key decisions with other young talent, we needed to shed our high priced depth...check. I think we could look for LB, T and S in the middle rounds for depth and S/T. I'd be going into draft targeting speed/skill guys early, then focus on trenches and depth.

Wasn't his "free" international player designation over? Not sure there is much to uncover....he is a talented athlete but FO didn't see enough to let him be part of the 90 heading to camp. Pretty simple.

Bates contract is in between starter and high end backup $s. Boettger likely will not be ready until mid to late season. Mancz isn't guaranteed anything, he's been "meh". Cody Ford doesn't fit the mold of what our new line coach typically looks for, so he might be on his way out Not to mention, we have Tommy Doyle slotted as our only T backup as of now. Anytime you bring in a new oline coach, and a new O coordinator, anything is on the table and they will likely look to fill with players that fit their desired skillets. I agree with @GreggTX, we need OL, and could see us drafting 2 guys.

Plenty of vet/1yr rental types available in FA. Perhaps we are in conversations with a couple, and waiting to see what unfolds in the draft. We likely need 2 corners, assuming Tre begins on the PUP list. Dane, 1st or 2nd rounder, mid round pick or FA, and Neal is likely our path ahead on the outside. Along with Cam, Nick McLeod (who they seemed to like) and likely other UDFAs will likely fight for 1 spot.

Great FA, biggest positional need in order: 1. CB: likely need 2. Somehow find a FA, still options to swing a 1 yr deal, and an early-mid draft pick. Alot hinges on when they think that Tre will be healthy to play. 2. G/IOL: need another starter, or at least someone to compete with or potentially replace Bates if he is signed elsewhere. Round 1-3 ideally. 3. WR: would love another playmaker, but not sure we "need" someone round 1. Another outside guy is preferable. With a deep draft, this could be anywhere round 1-4 but I'd think round 2-3 is going to be best value. 4. RB: still think we could look to upgrade, or very least look for a complimentary type, ie: speed/scatback. 5. Depth: Tackle, IOL, LB/ST, CB and Dline. I'd expect our round 4-7 to fill in some depth and look for someone who might have slid. Overall, I think we are set up very nicely going into draft to focus on BPA, but #1 and 2 on list above should certainly be an early focus.

Watched Dane play a lot, living in Pittsburgh. He won't disappoint. I think Hamlin was a steal too, he will be ready to step up down the road too.