MasterStrategist

I'm not sure we go after Armstead, IMO Texans will land him. Because of $ and age/injury, I think Beane stays put. As a possibility, I'm wondering if Beane strategy is to go DL round 1 (which will initially trigger some anger by fans) and trade up in Round 2 for a WR. DL: Chop Robinson, Darius Robinson (who profiles similar to Armstead, inside/out versatilty) are two guys to watch WR: such a deep draft, Beane might not see much difference between WR5-6 (which is likely our Rd1 option, if we stay put) & WR8-12 (if we move up in Rd 2) I don't see us using all eleven picks, so Rd 2 is ripe for moving up. Or we stay put and see WR12ish at our pick. Sign a guy like Samuel or MVS, who could be a WR2b (complimentary weapon), add a Rd2 Wr. Diggs/Kincaid/FA/Rd 2 Wr/Shakir/Knox....would be a nice collective group. DL: Oliver, Jones, Groot, Von, AJE, 1 more FA DT, Rd1 DE, Late round DT

The Rapp signing is my only issue thus far, as I was hoping for a legit starter via FA. Perhaps they still have a plan there. Lewis is super cheap, provides best ROI for his familiarity with system and position versatility/ST play. Re: Morrow, all I can think is there could be concern with: 1. Injuries occurring again AND/OR 2. Dorian might not pick things up yet in Year 2. It's a fact that the injury bug hit us hard LY, especially at LB. But after seeing what happened against KC, I don't think they wanted a rookie in the LB4 spot (especially a late pick) and Dorian hasn't proved anything, except his athleticism. McDs Def philosophy revolves around strong LB play. Having a dependable LB3 is a good investment, given recent injury luck and what we have on roster.

Re: draft/round 1 and 2 If right guys are there, I think our most impactful strategy should be: RD1 WR and RD2 OC/OG. With Daquan back, I think we can find a 1 tech DT in Rd 4-6. Same for DE4 slot. I think Beane will grab 1 more DT and DE in FA, sets up depth-wise heading into draft.

Yeah and he was fighting thru injury it looked like

Diggs is WR1. Maybe not a top 5 WR anymore, but he's still a top 15-20 guy. By definition, that's WR1

I think both those guys are exactly the type of WR we look for in FA. Then two WRs in draft. Along with a late round RB. I think we find another vet in FA for RB2. Brady wants to run a more balanced offense, I think it's important to find a RB2 in FA

Not sure why ppl want to sign a WR2. Round 1 pick is likely pegged for that. We likely need a WR4, $5-6m type. Then draft a 2nd WR in middle rounds. With Diggs, Kincaid, Shakir, Knox, Cook. We need 1 very good option to add, and a couple supporting types.

Yes. I could see us going for a vet, on a y 1yr deal. Ogbah has been tossed around. Shaq Lawson is the absolute fall back plan. But we might see what happens in draft and pick from the remaining DEs in May/June.

Cross off DE3 need. Waiting for contract, guessing 2 years for $16m, up to $20m.

I like the Cam re-signing (prob in minority). He brings versatility, 1 player who can play slot/safety/above avg ST. Not a fan of the Rapp re-signing. He looked like a backup LY, just don't like putting decent cap $s into backups this early in FA. He's the type of guy we could replace with a June signing or Day 3 pick. Rest of the guys released/not re-signed, Beane made tough but good decisions IMO. Be good to get our DE3 in FA, and our starting 1-tech DT. A starting safety would be ideal, not sure if Rapp is their answer but he shouldn't be. And 1 WR, in the Noah Brown price range. Then hit WR and OL early, fill out depth at DL and S later in draft

Happy has posted many injury "inside" info, during the season...ie: Groot foot, Knox wrist, McGovern knee, etc He's also posted signings/interest in future players, ie: Murray, Joseph, Ford, etc LY

This has been Beanes biggest issue....he finds a bunch of B/B+ guys to accompany Josh and Stefon, latter is now a B-type guy. It's a solid/very good roster, but not enough star power. Von was supposed to be the elite guy, along with Tre coming back from injury, but things went sideways. We need to be "elite" on one side of the ball at least. Either stack up the defense, or more suitable for this draft, stack the WR room and OL. McDermott is a very good defensive mind and we can win a SB with an elite offense and tier 2 defense. Just need another playmaker, upgrade on Morse, and hopefully we see Kincaid/Shakir continue improving. Rd 1 WR and Rd 2 G/C, just might put us at elite offense...if they hit on the picks and a WR4 in FA.

Spotrac tells a different story, than you're referencing above. Salary: all agree that was reduced significantly Cap in 2024: all agree this reduced by approx $8m 2024 Roster bonus: Spotrac shows this as "non guaranteed" (but ability to convert to signing bonus). This is where the difference lies with what you stated above. 2024 Guaranteed $: not yet clear, but if the roster bonus isn't guaranteed, then we're talking somewhere close to 8.5m as gtd $. And your original $10m estimate was low, it was closer to $17m for 2024 Incentives: yes these could put Von in better $ situation, but I personally like the "pay for performance" incentives (which don't count against cap) Future cap years: I'm not seeing how our future cap is implicated at all. Unless his roster bonus was indeed "guaranteed"/amortized across remaining years of deal (which would add approx $2m to each future year)

This $$$ has to be earmarked for DL reinforcements. Von did Beane a solid, and team. That $8m can go a long way to get a couple solid players, or a Floyd type on 1 year deal

Agents typically pump out the high end ("up to")...I'd imagine it will be backup/3rd safety type money (dime)

Just depends on perspective, Thurman/Bruce/Reed are Bills legends. White/Po/Morse were all very good players, but none of these guys ever contributed near the success. I just don't too attached to players, unless stars.

We've saved close to $30M (less Edwards and Haack agreements, likely in the 3m-4m range). I think they've actually missed a recent cut. Numbers should be close $15m-16m. Tre savings will kick in after June 1st

Those were Hall of Famers, core to our success. White, Poyer, Harty, Morse, and yesterday's moves...don't compare at all. It's necessary moves, the writing was on the wall for all these guys. Making too much/negative ROI right now.

100% agree. Going to be some X types available in the 3rd-4th, that are very talented. Jerry Rices son and Jalen Coker (top small school WR) are two that I wouldn't mind seeing us draft. Coker obviously played against lesser talent, but he high-points with some of the top tier prospects (he tested elite in vertical at combine). Rice is more talented, has the lineage and also a high production receiver in 2023 but has some things to clean up. Both these guys will go in the 3rd-4th range, IMO. Right where we should be looking to double-down on WR. If things align and Beane/staff did their homework, we could come away with our future X and a speedy playmaker. Lots of "ifs", but could be a 3-year draft that would have garnered us: Cook, Kincaid, Shakir, future X, and immediate #2 upgrade.

I don't think a big X is necessary, just a creative offense that's going to move him around and be used at all 3 levels of thr pass game. His speed/acceleration best used with some formation/alignment and using him in motion (ie: Hill/Waddle). Icing on cake is he's also a top tier PR. Risk is his size, but If I were Beane I'd double down at WR (4th round) with a size guy.

This is said about every 'slight' WR, but there many exceptions. Ppl said the same about Zay and Addison last year. Devontae Smith few years ago. Some guys have skills that translate very well to the NFL, IMO Worthy is that guy

Anyone questioning Worthy should check out some highlights. Yes highlights, but the guy has elite level speed and acceleration/ability to create YAC. He would instantly draw a safety over the top on his side, wouldn't be taken away 1-1 like Gabe disappeared. He's the exact fit we need on offense, and boost us to elite level playmakers. Kincaid, Shakir, Knox in the middle of field and Diggs/Worthy outside is a very balanced group of skill players. Then Cook, a new RB2, and Josh running. Will be difficult to stop that offense.

I'd argue Franklin had a much better QB, IMO. Worthy is plenty elusive

I like Keon, think he's very similar to Pickens talent. But Worthy has been my top choice for a while, reminds me of DeSean/Zay Flowers. Keon lacks some of the route running crispness, but he's way more fluid than Gabe. Ideally, we see us selecting Worthy. If he's gone, I wouldn't mind trading back to top of 2nd round (1st few picks)...Keon "might" be there still OR plenty of other very solid options. We need to get 3 immediate impact players (starters/high level depth) at WR, DL, and S from this draft. Be nice to double down on WR (4th round, or if we tradeback possibly in 3rd), get younger in secondary and a RB2 late.

Completely agree, that you're stating facts about what we've done in recent past. But, I think last year was a perfect example of Diggs having to play through injury because we had absolutely nobody to step up. Davis down against Chiefs, and we were relying on Josh/ground attack to move the ball. This offense will be next level/potentially elite with a 1st round WR and a 4th WR via FA. That's counting on 1st rounder panning out, but recent history has shown the top prospects contribute immediately (and this is a VERY deep class). Kincaid/Cook/Shakir each taking a step forward. I expect FA to fill holes on DL and depending if we cut Poyer, then a S. We'd be smart to cut some guys, ie: Harty, Morse, Poyer, Tre and sign 1 starter at S, 1 WR (Wr4 type), and bring back Jones. Use remaining cap on depth at DL. Then WR 1st round, S or DE 2nd and 3rd, then depth at DT and RB later in draft. Beane can restructure and maneuver some 1 year deals to "push" some cap to next couple years.