MasterStrategist

Great points, I 100% agree we don't "reach" at 28 if the value isn't there OR at 60. But to be clear, I think the value will meet the need at both picks. I have Darius in Tier 2, but I value your opinion. I think there's more potential with Chop, than Darius, as well. I see a slight chance Lutu slides to the early-mid 20s. Beane might wanna trade up if that happens. Otherwise, I'm in agreement let the board come to you. I still think we will find a DE and WR, at 28 and 60, or even if we move back, that will be very good players/value will be there. Regarding DT/S, much easier to hide a Safety weakness. Behind Ed and Jones, I like Austin Johnson (if we sign him) but still think we need a pure 3-tech behind Ed that can add some interior push. I agree on S, we have 2 high end backups and 1 jack of all trades backup (Cam), I was hoping we went a different direction in FA, but confident McD knows what he wants. I think the Edwards/Rapp combo is just a slight notch below Hyde/Poyer, Hyde lost a massive step and every hit was a huge risk for his neck. Poyer lost a step, still better than both Rapp/Edwards though but not by a lot. I think we can get by, especially if we improve at DL/pass rush

Biggest need is pass rush, the Rd1 WR fans won't like that though. I'd breakdown into "starter needed", "should look to improve", "depth needed": Starters (2): WR-X, DE Improve (4): LG/C, DT3, FS, RB2 Depth (5): T, IOL, DT, LB, CB. Highest need is OL depth IMO, then secondary and then DT4 Coincidentally, that's 11 players=11 picks. I'd be shocked if our first 2 picks aren't DE/WR, in either order. After that, BPA in the improvement category, I'd think DT3 has slightly higher impact than the others (and RB2 could be a FA post draft) This might be the first year that Beane trades back (ie: get a 2nd and 3rd). We might be best off on this path, if we find a trading partner. Theoretically, could then go: Rd2: WR-X (tier 2 of guys, which is like a 1st in any other year), DE (tier 2, which would be all we need if Von rebounds) Rd 3: either Dt or S- I'd prefer a DT, given it's importance in rotation That would fill out our top needs quite nicely, and balance out the DL/pass rush and WR. Just hope Edwards/Rapp overachieve, or we hit on a S in Rd4+

Inside info on what? These aren't PeeWee coaches. They analyze and understand schematics to the extreme level, they don't need "inside info". KC has a better/faster defense than we've had. Snead, Jones, McDuffie, faster safeties, etc. We have talented guys too, but our lack of a true game wrecker up front is the main difference, then KC had two top DBs too.

This is the definition of a backup/ST player. As of now, we have 2 backups (Lewis, Edwards), a fringe starter/better used in subpackages (Rapp), and a likely to be cut player (Hamlin). I was hoping we'd sign a solid starter in FA, possible we still do, but looks like we might be spending an early pick.

Agree, I'm not advocating a "reach" at DE. I however think that the Robinsons, Chop and Darius will be excellent picks. Bring something different in skill sets, but both can "win" matchups and create havoc. Nobody knows which prospects will prosper, so I won't waste time arguing merits of one versus another. But I'll continue to say that we need DE/pass rush help badly. Just a bit more than WR, IMO, after the Samuel pickup. Player evaluation needs to meet the draft slot, but we're a better/more rounded team, if the scouting/evaluation has a DE=a WR at 28....you take the DE and come back with a WR in round 2 (potentially moving up, which I'm mentioned in numerous other posts)

I'll play devils advocate. Disagree with your point about McDermott coaching tendencies/philosophy, and bad defense vs Chiefs in playoffs. We had WAY too many injuries to compete on defense, on every level-especially missing our top 2 LBs against a team with a dominant TE and Coach's use of LBs being paramount. Each postseason, except for 2020, we've entered with too many injuries to key players: 1. 2021: Tre 2. 2022: Von, Tre still hobbled, Micah, Daquan 3. 2023: Milano, Bernard, Daquan coming off a torn pec, Rasul playing at 75% Problem is injuries and not having a dominant player on defense. Easier to overcome injuries, if we have a dominant guy healthy. Instead, we have several very good guys and when 1-2 miss, then we're SOL. Our offense plays lights our because of Josh. Eventually we need to find an equivalent defensive output to rely on. And to me, that's what Beane has been chasing (Von signing, DL investments), and he should keep going that route until he hits. With such a deep WR class, there will be very good WRs sitting there in round 2. Usually is anyhow in each class, it's about proper scouting/etc but it's easier to hit when more talent is there. At DL, such a weak class overall, but there are 1-2 guys who could be there in Round 1 that could be a huge help. Diggs, Samuel, a 2nd round WR with deep ball skills, Shakir, Kincaid, Knox would already be an upgrade on LY and likely our best group since 2020. I just don't think we need a RD1 WR, not after investing in Kincaid LY and Samuel, to go with current group. Our DE room is going to look bare after 2024 season, with Von likely gone and AJE isn't any more than a DE3- need more juice up front.

There will be "close to equal" talent in RD2 at WR, if we move up to 50. WR6-8 at 28, vs WR 10-14 in RD2 isn't much drop-off. At DE, both Robinsons are tier 2 talents to me (potential). Different skill sets, Chop brings the elite athleticism, while the other is more physical and can bounce inside too. Either is worthy of 28

Miller is a wild card, he either gets close to prior form OR he is washed up. I think he'll rebound, but he's not going to be what he was in 2022 pre injury. He's a rotational piece to me. Von is also gone after this year, and AJE isn't a DE2 (he could be, but isn't yet). Groot isn't locked up longterm either. I say DE is something that could impact the team the most. DT, I'm fine with Jones and Ed. Find a viable backup in FA (either at 1 tech or 3 tech), draft the other later rounds.

Agree with both sides of discussion, Samuel is versatile piece. But another reason we don't "need" a RD1 WR. With Diggs, Samuel, Shakir, Kincaid and Knox, that's already a solid group. A WR in RD2, of the deepest draft at WR in history, is all we need.

Exactly. DE and WR are both equal needs but I think DE could have biggest impact on success of team. We don't have a top tier DL player. We have 1 tier two player (Ed), a tier 3 guy (Groot), tier 3-4 in AJE and Von. We need another DL player in the tier 2 category, or ideally potential to be an all-pro. We won't have success late in playoffs with what we have now, just not good enough. We arent in position to get an elite player at DL on draft, but both Robinsons have different skill sets, and bring potential to be tier 2 guys relatively quickly.

Exactly baseline WR2/complimentary piece to the WR room. I mentioned earlier today in the Armstead thread, that Beane is likely targeting Samuel/MVS, then going DL in RD1. Wr in RD2 (trade up to high 40s/#50, to get ahead of Steelers). Will see if draft plays out like that. But hoping we can get our starting FS before draft, and a backup DT.

Agreed. Those day 3 picks will be valuable for moving up in Rd 2 though. Say to jump ahead of Steelers, move from Pick 60 to Pick 50. Both Steelers and Bills have very similar positional needs: WR, Safety, Center

Exactly. We get better value investing those FA $s/remaining cap on a WR (such as Samuel/MVS) and a starting caliber FS. Solid logic why a versatile DL would help. I mentioned a couple RD1 DL prospects above, who could help immediately. Team likes bumping Groot inside on passing downs as well, so that's an existing option. Just think a low-tier WR2 and starting FS are wiser investments, with remaining cap $s. Go get that DL prospect early, and WR in RD2 (in one of the deepest classes ever)

Sorry, should have said I don't think Beane will get into a bidding war. I think he has a value on Erik and doesn't "go after him too aggressively", IMO/no source. Personally, I'd rather invest an early pick on DL...knowing Von is likely gone after this year, and AJE is only on a 2-yr deal/isn't a DE2. WR is so deep we can find a starter in RD2

I'm not sure we go after Armstead, IMO Texans will land him. Because of $ and age/injury, I think Beane stays put. As a possibility, I'm wondering if Beane strategy is to go DL round 1 (which will initially trigger some anger by fans) and trade up in Round 2 for a WR. DL: Chop Robinson, Darius Robinson (who profiles similar to Armstead, inside/out versatilty) are two guys to watch WR: such a deep draft, Beane might not see much difference between WR5-6 (which is likely our Rd1 option, if we stay put) & WR8-12 (if we move up in Rd 2) I don't see us using all eleven picks, so Rd 2 is ripe for moving up. Or we stay put and see WR12ish at our pick. Sign a guy like Samuel or MVS, who could be a WR2b (complimentary weapon), add a Rd2 Wr. Diggs/Kincaid/FA/Rd 2 Wr/Shakir/Knox....would be a nice collective group. DL: Oliver, Jones, Groot, Von, AJE, 1 more FA DT, Rd1 DE, Late round DT

The Rapp signing is my only issue thus far, as I was hoping for a legit starter via FA. Perhaps they still have a plan there. Lewis is super cheap, provides best ROI for his familiarity with system and position versatility/ST play. Re: Morrow, all I can think is there could be concern with: 1. Injuries occurring again AND/OR 2. Dorian might not pick things up yet in Year 2. It's a fact that the injury bug hit us hard LY, especially at LB. But after seeing what happened against KC, I don't think they wanted a rookie in the LB4 spot (especially a late pick) and Dorian hasn't proved anything, except his athleticism. McDs Def philosophy revolves around strong LB play. Having a dependable LB3 is a good investment, given recent injury luck and what we have on roster.

Re: draft/round 1 and 2 If right guys are there, I think our most impactful strategy should be: RD1 WR and RD2 OC/OG. With Daquan back, I think we can find a 1 tech DT in Rd 4-6. Same for DE4 slot. I think Beane will grab 1 more DT and DE in FA, sets up depth-wise heading into draft.

Yeah and he was fighting thru injury it looked like

Diggs is WR1. Maybe not a top 5 WR anymore, but he's still a top 15-20 guy. By definition, that's WR1

I think both those guys are exactly the type of WR we look for in FA. Then two WRs in draft. Along with a late round RB. I think we find another vet in FA for RB2. Brady wants to run a more balanced offense, I think it's important to find a RB2 in FA

Not sure why ppl want to sign a WR2. Round 1 pick is likely pegged for that. We likely need a WR4, $5-6m type. Then draft a 2nd WR in middle rounds. With Diggs, Kincaid, Shakir, Knox, Cook. We need 1 very good option to add, and a couple supporting types.

Yes. I could see us going for a vet, on a y 1yr deal. Ogbah has been tossed around. Shaq Lawson is the absolute fall back plan. But we might see what happens in draft and pick from the remaining DEs in May/June.

Cross off DE3 need. Waiting for contract, guessing 2 years for $16m, up to $20m.

I like the Cam re-signing (prob in minority). He brings versatility, 1 player who can play slot/safety/above avg ST. Not a fan of the Rapp re-signing. He looked like a backup LY, just don't like putting decent cap $s into backups this early in FA. He's the type of guy we could replace with a June signing or Day 3 pick. Rest of the guys released/not re-signed, Beane made tough but good decisions IMO. Be good to get our DE3 in FA, and our starting 1-tech DT. A starting safety would be ideal, not sure if Rapp is their answer but he shouldn't be. And 1 WR, in the Noah Brown price range. Then hit WR and OL early, fill out depth at DL and S later in draft

Happy has posted many injury "inside" info, during the season...ie: Groot foot, Knox wrist, McGovern knee, etc He's also posted signings/interest in future players, ie: Murray, Joseph, Ford, etc LY