MasterStrategist

Possibly. My preference would be to move up into 35-40 range, from pick 60 in Rd 2, and get another highly graded WR (in addition to Rd 1)

Another possibility is stay put at 28, and move up with Car in Rd 2 (pick 39) At 28: Leggete, Mitchell, Worthy At 39: possibly one of the above slides here, plus potential of Ladd, Pearsall, Keon, and Franklin Buf receives: pick 39, pick 101 (1st pick of 4th round) Car receives: pick 60, pick 122 (4th round), and Min 2nd rounder (2025) Trade value chart would be very similar, if both wish to make a deal. Car has pick 33 too, they might be willing to move back in Rd 2 for an additional 2nd next season (proj to be fairly high)

Usually a future pick (1 yr out) is projected as a mid rounder and value divided by 2. But in Min situation, I think it's safe to say they'll be selecting between 33-40. Likely valued in the 500s and divided by 2. So subtract around 220-250 points from Hou tally (976-220=756). It was a fair trade, with upside to Hou.

I think it's very possible for the following, re: trade ups in Rd 1 and Rd2: Rd1: move up to Min pick, if Thomas still there. give up our 1st, our 4th, and 2 5ths this year, for their 1st and a 7th this yr Rd2: move up to Was 2nd pick in Rd2, I think 40. Trade our 2nd this year and our 2nd in 2025 Draft Brian Thomas and Keon Coleman. That would be a very nice young WR core

Not 1st round to me at least. But I'd very much be on board with trading up in the 2nd to get him. He's going to be very good in the NFL. His size/hands/quick breaks in and out of routes. Downfield, not the speedster that many other WRs possess in this draft, but he outstanding balance and ability to win the 50/50 balls. If this guy ran in the 4.40s, he'd be up in the tier 1 range. Right now to me, he's borderline/bottom of tier 2, based on his long speed being the only downfall

Beane hyped Davis and Shakir, coming into LY. Josh hyped Gabe as well, and the desire of getting him more short/intermediate targets for YAC. Not saying Shakir won't step up, but I go by what I've seen and Shakir has good traits but some key limitations. I sincerely hope that Beane sees we need 2 boundary guys. Counting on Samuel or Shakir for significant boundary snaps is foolish, for many reasons...partly due to eachs limitations but puts a TON of pressure on what we presume will be a RD1 boundary guy. Then we have Mack Hollins, who soupdnt see more than 20 targets all year, if that. Shakir should be getting 80% of his snaps from the slot. Samuel can be more versatile, but again is best used in the slot/short, quick passes or screens/bubble routes. This is the year to go back to back picks at WR. Get a 3 tech DT, S, CB, and possibly RB with rest of picks. We will have more cap to sign guys after June 1, get that 1 yr rental at DE and a Rb2 if necessary. A WR room of say: Rd 1, Samuel, Rd2, Shakir, and Hollins looks nice. We will have plenty of talented WRs to pick from at picks 28 and 60, who would be drafted higher in any other years draft. I think Brady saw our limitations at WR, besides Diggs, and decided to be more balanced with a run game. At the urging of McD as well. But if we can add some more explosive receivers (Rd1 and 2), I think we could see more of a 2020 offensive group of weapons. Back to Shakir, I think he was 3rd or 4th concern by the opponents LY. Diggs getting doubled, safety shading over Gabe, then Kincaid. Hope I'm wrong, just don't see Shakir being good enough to jump any higher than a 3rd or 4th option (complementary piece)

McD and Beane are on the same level to me, tier 2. They are very good/would get hired instantly by another team. They just haven't proven to be able to: 1. Coach: Make necessary adjustments/get us over the hump in playoffs 2. Beane: outside of the Allen pick and Diggs trade, he hasn't drafted any "superstars". Looking at other top-tier teams, who have multiple superstars, he has put together very good teams/depth. Coach needs to improve, but so does Beane. He needs to find a superstar in one of these drafts, ideally this year's. I've also had an issue with Beane DL acquisitions, agree with his philosophy, but he has striked out alot (draft and FA). Ignored WRs early in draft, and didn't prioritize OL until LY. Beane and Coach aren't the problem, but we need to get better talent and execute when It matters. They need to be better I'd we want a SB

Honestly, I see your point here and they are solid points. However, I think using KC as a reference point is a bit off topic. First off, KC has the best TE of all time. One of the best playcallers/scheming of all time with Reid. And they have a top 5 OL, and faster/better defense than ours. More premier players than we have on defense for certain, Jones alone is a game wrecker and a better secondary than ours LY. They've been able to get away with lack of a star WR, for reasons described above, and a more rounded team than ours. I don't think we will match them in any of the above remarks that I've made, and we don't have to, but we need something special (pass rush, WR weapons, etc) that will propel us in postseason. I'd rather we load up on WR talent, because Shakir isn't a "special" talent by any means. He is limited in his routes and until LY, struggled with drops in college too. I still like him, but I'd hate we make the same mistakes over and over (ie: projecting a minimal stretch of games into full season potential). This is the year to add premier talent in the draft at WR, I hope Beane agrees.

Of course these guys can line up at all positions. The key point is what impact they have from that position on field. Right now, we have nobody that is a downfield threat. It'd be nice to have 1 legit and another reliable option. I'm fine with spreading targets and agree that's what Brady seems to want to have happen. But I truly hope Brady doesn't turn this offense into a dink/dunk team. JMO, but I don't think Josh is accurate OR consistent enough to be a Brady/Brees type. Too many turnovers/inconsistency. We need some more of Dabolls downfield passing scheme integrated, to be more balanced. We need more "homeruns" in this offense, or at least be more explosive. Redzone conversion rate has been inconsistent at best, past 2 years. We lack identity as of now...I hope Beane can find 2 legit threats in this loaded WR class.

I hope you're right, but I have doubts. Shakir hasn't shown me that he can consistently beat man coverage or find the openings in zone over 2 years. Yes, he's young and still could be ascending, but I think he's not far from his ceiling. I look at the acquisition of Samuel and think he's the ideal slot/Swiss army receiver, that we tried to force with Harty/McKenzie previously. Just not sure if Shakir will even see more targets than LY. Kincaid has MUCH higher ceiling than Shakir, and by adding Samuel we will have a solid underneath-intermediate targets. I think we're missing 2 legit outside WRs, 1 who is well rounded and the 2nd who can at least be a threat deep. I just don't see Shakir being successful outside the slot, and there seems to be a plethora of options there now. We will see how this draft shakes out but I still think Khalil is a solid complementary weapon (like a #4 guy). I'm hoping Beane doesn't bank on Shakir/Samuel outside, rather that he focuses on drafting two early WRs. It's the year to use draft capital (that fits the value) on WR. A position that continues to increase in cap/$ value in FA, and deepest of many recent drafts. We draft a combo of: Rd 1- Mitchell, Legette, Worthy, Thomas (with a tradeup), Rd 2- Coleman, Tez Walker, someone who surprisingly slides. That would set us up for manageable cap at WR for next 4-5 seasons, focus next years FA/draft on DL again and secondary

I hear ya, and good points. I'm just afraid a late round WR, won't feel the need at boundary/downfield guy. If we draft a WR in the 1st (presumably who can do it all), we still have a hole at the other WR spot. I don't trust Samuel or Shakir outside, whatsoever. Samuel for some snaps but he's better utilized in the slot/shorter quick routes and YAC. If our plan is to bring in a MVS or Thomas, post June 1st, then fine go WR late. But I'd rather go WR in 1 and 2, where I'm almost certain the value will meet our picks. Go for a S, 3 tech DT, CB, and a RB round 4+. Then post June 1st, focus on DE and RB2 (if we don't draft someone). My biggest concerns are WR and DE. We have nobody is taking the top off defenses right now, and hope Beane is focused on acquiring speed/explosiveness early. At DE, not sure a RD2 guy is going to move the needle. I'd rather we go 1yr rental, like we did with Floyd. Ultimately, I trust Beane but he HAS to hit on immediate starter/impact guys in Rd 1 and 2 this year.

agree. We need 2 quality boundary WRs, as I see it. Samuel will be moved around, but he does best in the slot. Shakir is 1b in the slot. I see Beane doing 1 of 3 things: 1. Double dip early at WR: value will be there in Rd1 and R2 2. Draft an early WR, then sign a MVS/Michael Thomas stop-gap post June 1st when we get the Tre cap money 3. Draft an early WR, and make a trade post June 1st (depending on who is shopping who, ie: Aiyuk, maybe) I like Option 1, but not sure Beane will put that many young WRs in our room. This makes the draft all that more interesting to me this year. We have a chance to setup our WR core for the next 4-5 seasons, if Beane chooses to do so.

Morse wasn't worth his contract at this point of his career. And since you brought up injuries, Morse is always 1 concussion away from being done/career ending. He also seems to battle through elbow injuries each year, and is not getting any younger. Bates was versatile. But it's very possible that Alec Anderson is our Swiss army guy at IOL. Loser of Edwards/Collins battle also gives depth. And we signed Clapp, who has solid starting experience. Starting OL will be just as good, if not improved. Remembering Torrence as a rookie and Brown showed his potential with a full offseason regimen (not coming off surgery/injury). OL is least of concerns with the current roster.

How exactly did we "nuke" the OL? Morse was slightly above average some games, but mostly average. McGovern, Dawkins, Torrence and Brown return. Edwards as well. Yes Connor likely moves to C. But that could be a very good thing. Morse didn't hold up against 3-4 style, or anytime DT was in a 0 or 1i technique. Edwards and Collins battle it out for LG. Combined OL is just as good, if not better. With Torrence likely improving and Brown as well. We haven't even had the draft and you're prognisticating a bad WR room. Let's see what happens in draft to start. 1st round WR and double dipping sometime later, and all of a sudden we might have a more diverse group since 2020

And you can't just look at stats to prove a point. Diggs has been our main "target hog", since arriving. Yes, Beasley for a couple seasons to take target share. But we've never had a consistent run game, until this season. Diggs had WAY more targets, of course his stats will look better. Reed had a much stronger supporting cast, an MVP/HOF RB in Thurman who also ate alot of targets/attempts (rightfully so). Not to mention that Reed was one of the best YAC receivers of his era. Diggs is obviously great, in his own era/time with us too.

Agree. My "dream draft" is we land a combination of: Mitchell/Legette/Worthy/Coleman Mitchell, Legette, Worthy are all possible/likely to come off the board from 21-40 IMO. I think Coleman gets into the 40s, possible 50s due to his forty time. But Coleman crushed the other "splits"/gauntlet drill, and created separation while at MSU (his time at FSU, in a simplified offense, didn't benefit him). Get me some speed, and add a physical freak in Coleman who I think could be a steal in Rd2 (likely requiring a trade up). Tez Walker is my fallback plan at 60. This is the year to double dip at WR early. We NEED downfield threats, more than 1. Kincaid/Samuel/Shakir are solid underneath and intermediate options (Knox/Cook short too). Samuel I think gets moved around alot/Swiss army knife. But downfield, we have nobody I'd count on right now. And that was clearly missing in our arsenal LY. Go get a 1 yr DE rental after draft. Use rest of this years draft on best available at DT (3 tech), S, CB, and OL.

No to all 3. I know you like these hypothetical trades/acquisitions, but doesn't make sense with any of them. Milano is the heart and soul of the defense, he's the most vital IMO to its success. Douglas is basically on a cheap cap hit this season, and he's likely gone in FA next year. Makes no sense to trade and eat a cap hit now, unless we're truly tanking in 2024. Knox, we'd be accelerating a very high dead cap hit (not like Diggs where the difference is 3-4m, much much higher with Dawson). So no to all 3

Agree, but as Beane said in presser: "that's the best we could get" Honestly, I don't see us moving up this year. Deep class, we have holes/depth concerns at too many spots where we need young/cost controlled contracts. I don't necessarily think we are throwing in the towel for 2024, but Beane is resetting the cap issue and likely won't go all in on anything right now. 2025, that's another story. We will have alot of cap room, even after working on re-signing our own young talent. With an extra 2nd round pick, that's likely to be a very good pick. I see us competing this year, getting some young guys more experience. 2025 is our best opportunity. Get a couple young WRs, a DT or DE, and a S to groom out of this draft (in no particular order)

Unless they see one of the top WRs as "can't miss all-pro", then I'm hesitant to give away picks. WR class is so deep this year, we have some other key holes (DE, DT, S) that we can get better at as well, at least with depth. I also don't like moving 2025 picks. Beane is taking "his cap medicine" in 2024, why go "all in" again for 2024? Again, if it's a can't miss prospect then maybe. But we are setup capwise and draft picks in 2025 to be very aggressive both in FA and draft. I'd rather stay patient and see who is there at 28, likely a solid WR prospect still.

100% spot on. Beane has been saying the word "reset", in terms of cap space many times this offseason. Take our medicine in 2024. If we can hit on a WR, or even 2, this draft...then we can have a very successful 2024 and setup 2025 as a chance to be really aggressive.

Agree, nice write up! At least this will be a very interesting draft. I don't think Beane will reach at 28 either, before Diggs trade I was thinking 60/40 DL in Rd 1. Now it's 100% WR, and there will be 1st round graded guys there, at least a couple. Have a chance to add more speed/size to the group. I like the idea of spreading the targets more as well. Green Bay has shown a nice model to succeed, without a true #1. Find 3 solid #2 types, and solid depth. IMO, we have: #1-nobody #2: Kincaid (potential), Samuel (2b), Shakir (2b potential) #3: Knox Depth: Hollins I think if we can find 1 more reliable WR, and 1 solid depth (with speed or size, to round out WR room). Round 1 and Round 4 or 5. Only so many targets to go around, now we can actually spread the ball like Bradys offense is designed to do. It also will allow Josh to play more freely, without constant nagging from Diggs to get him the ball.

Thanks for sharing the inside info. Diggs' ego was definitely being coddled/forced fed passes, during LY. Not saying we're better now at WR, but after the draft..perhaps we're at least even/younger/faster. This is the Greenbay model. Get 2-3 young, solid options that can all win on any down. At least Josh won't have the headache of listening to Diggs rants, on/off the field anymore

Reminds me of Greenbay. Dealt Adams and rebuilt WR room over a couple drafts. This is definitely the year to go 1/2 at WR

Exactly, even though it's flag football, he'd be sitting out if hurt. His game declined, and wasn't as integral to the offense. Shakir/Kincaid stepped up. Adding Samuels and young WRs in draft might make us better next season

Depends if Diggs was injured down the stretch, or if his game truly dropped off. He's on wrong side of 30 and once the decline starts, it usually goes fast. I think Stef will have 2 solid seasons, it's fair comp IMO (also considering his contract)