WideNine

Pretty good article. Could tell he put a lot of thought into it. I am hitting the wall on this draft, just want it to get rolling today and let the chips fall where they may.

Would not be shocked and would be OK with the pick. I have my own concerns, but Daboll would have the more complete book on this kid and if he has future HOF in him. Also, a lot of mocks have Dillard moving up boards after his private workouts so he could be in play too if they go LT.

Not worried about the kid's weight. The talent is certainly there (5-star recruit and blew away his pro-day) when he wants to turn it on, my hope is this staff can bring it out consistently while curbing the me-first diva attitude he is rumored to have along with the rumored "trash-talk" and attitude that had scouts questioning whether he would have any loyalty to any team. He is my pick at 9 on talent alone, but not sans any concerns that if those attitude and mouth rumors are true he and McDermott would definitely butt heads. Personally, I can overlook someone who thinks they are all that if they actually are "all that" when they strap on their gear and play.

We have had our share of offensive and defensive linemen taken in the 1st that have not panned out, RBs, QBs, and WRs too. What this organization historically has a penchant for finding is decent defensive backs and safeties with some semi-recent exceptions - McKelvin comes to mind ....that kid used to frustrate the heck out of me. Just to be clear, I don't think the Bills will take Hockenson. Would be solid proof that this season is all about surrounding Allen with talent, but I don't see it happening unless the blue chip talent at DT (Williams, Oliver, etc.) is gone or none of the premium edge guys like Bosa, Allen, maybe Sweat (heart medical - probably not) are available. I believe those positions have a higher rating and can either fill that penetrating DT need that the Bills have or someone who can get to the QB off the edge. I am not convinced they go LT in this draft unless there is someone that has really shot up the boards for good reason (Dillard seems to be getting a lot of attention) - not completely sold on the kid from Bama and I think that Dawkins could recover his previous form with new coaching and a fire under him after seeing all the FAs the Bills brought in. Interior guys - no one stands out to me, but good depth on guards and RTs. All I am saying is that it is a possibility and the sky is not falling if they do as I have always thought a good TE is something you can craft your game plans around and is a difference-maker on teams that have one whereas good receivers are pretty one-dimensional in what they bring. If they don't take Hock in the 1st, or he goes before we pick I wont be crushed as I think there are good TEs to be had later that have the foundation to be good in the passing game AND good blockers with time. I think this is a really interesting draft and the Bills at 9 are just on the edge of being able to go in about any direction. Beane has shown that he is willing to wheel and deal for someone he has high on his board, but that does not mean he will do that every year. I think this is a good FO, we will see how it all pans out soon enough.

Like those guys too. Bit more development time, but Oliver particularly could develop into a solid TE.

Somewhat flawed logic. RBs have also been moving to the later rounds as teams with good offensive lines have shown they can have success utilizing low-rent or later-drafted RBs. That is why it has been hard for many successful runningbacks to secure long-term high dollar contracts when their original agreements are up for negotiation. ************************************** Since I caused some confusion, I was not disagreeing about the NFL becoming a passing league, just the inference that more passing was the sole reason RBs are being drafted later.

Fair enough. He isn't Gronk, maybe Gronk lite. Gronk had better measurables and Gronkowski (another Pac 10 TE) won the Mackey award twice while playing through injuries at college. However, T. J. Hockenson is really good, does not have the injury history, and declared early so has room to grow so not sure where his ceiling will be. Just a safe bet, based on how pro-ready IA TEs have been considering their coach's roots with the Pats, and his body of work to date, that bust isn't in the cards. I don't feel the same about any of the other TE prospects where I think they project to more limited offensive roles and longer learning curves with some inherent risks.

Very aware of those games Hock was double and triple teamed and the Hawkeye receivers had a big day. He also was a blocking machine, which does not show up in the passing stats, but why the Mackey committee had high praise for the kid. Was referencing Maybin's stats which were QB sacks and pressures off the edge. Apple's and oranges.

Come now Shaw, you are a level-headed poster and I like reading your material but do you really feel that Hock is a boom or bust, high-risk pick? The worst I see is that he develops into a solid, but not standout offensive player at the position. When the Bills selected Maybin I christened him "Aaron Maybe" on this board because he only had 1 or 2 games against weak opponents where he padded his stats and I was blasted - it was all grab your pitchforks and torches. Then he sucked:) Been wrong before, but this kid's college game has been consistent to date, he's young and still has room to grow more, received the Mackey award (first time awarded to a Sophomore), and does not have "bust" written on him. Could get injured, but that is a risk we take with any prospect. I like the defensive blue-chippers too and would not mind if one fell to us, but Hock does not have to be risky for those picks to be graded higher in my book.

Agree, hard pass. Feather weight, goes down when someone sneezes on him, Lisfranc foot injury (could be signs of more to come), concentration lapses/drops, invisible in bigger games. A legit speedster with the ball in his hands, but not enough to gamble an early pick to acquire IMO.

A well thought out counterpoint. Also, the past is not always a clear predictor of the future. A good place to start, but should be a weighted consideration. We should also consider the game where player roles evolve with schemes that rise and fall in popularity, where CBA and free agency limit how players can be used or coached. All these things impact the importance of positions and the kind of investment and expectations fans should have regarding their team's approach to filling those roles. All this being said, my support of taking a solid TE early does not mean I will be upset if the Bills go defense first.

I was in your shoes last fall. Was digging into receivers the Bills should target and came away unimpressed. Just too little gap between the guys that had a late 1st round grade and the crowded field with 2nd round grades. I started focusing then on the TE class in particular Fant who was considered the top prospect. I was trying to understand why the Hawks coach Ferentz was sitting Fant and playing their red shirt sophomore Hockenson and came away understanding why Hock was a special 3 down TE that was hard to take off the field. That did not fully explain why Fant "the destroyer of secondaries" was warming the pine. Sure he has critical drops on occasion and the blocking was not as polished, but IMO the effort was there and he was almost impossible to cover. He was certainly in the coaches doghouse and I have no idea why. We have seen rumors from scouts that he is a "coach killer" not sure why. The difference maker to me was that Fant was the athletic flex TE more in the mold of Ebron and Hernandez, Hernandez had better hands. Hockenson was more that complete TE a coach could leave on the field and as a red shirt sophomore there was still room for the kid to grow into his frame and get stronger. I still think Fant has amazing athletic skills and could end up being better. His resume just has more unexplainable questions. That and the occasional drops. I admittedly had a low tolerance for dropped passes after last season. Skills alone they are both very good TE prospects in a year where the WR class lacks clear blue-chip talent hence I think the bump into the early 1st round.

Nice article and kind of touches on some of our personnel/scheme issues stopping the run last year. Have always felt that if a runner is getting past your line, you have already surrendered 4 yards because he is hitting your second level with a head of steam. Gap-penetrating defensive lineman seem to be a mismatched role to the way Star plays the position. Not saying he did not occupy blockers.

As much as I would like to see Edmunds at OLB given the opportunity to rush the QB off the edge, I came to the same conclusion. Mike is where they are grooming him with no plans to move him in the near future.

He may be factoring in our current depth at WR. I think Foster has proven he has talent and we have not seen his ceiling yet. Brown is a proven commodity and another speedster that can line up opposite Foster and give defenses fits if they try to go man or play cover 1. In the slot they picked up a vet who runs crisp routes with sure hands in Beasley where Zay is going to have to pick up his game to compete. They have a few more as camp guys who can compete for depth, but I have always thought that most of the receivers in this draft have a second round and later grade, and just a few with borderline 1st round talent. Makes sense to look at the guys that might be there from the 2nd round on down.

I don't think so. He did a fairly objective review of pick 9 BPA, and was clear there are guys that Beane would take before Hockenson should they fall. I had not considered the logic, but the butterfly kicked me in the head when he looked at positions where the Bills had a high number of visits and correlated that to a FO taking a depth approach to that position; If A is gone who do we have at B, at C, etc. Logical assumption. If Hock pans out, it is not a wasted pick IMO, I think most of the anti-Hock folks would feel better about him if the Bills could trade back and then pick him up, but I am not sure he last past the 12th pick. It would almost be worth it to see how many folks here would crap themselves if NE packaged a bunch of picks and moved up to grab him to replace the retired Gronk. My guess is NE stays put and goes after Josh Oliver a bit earlier than projected. He fits their mold without Belichick having to parlay draft capital. I still think there is some decent depth at the TE position, and would be fine if one of the defensive blue chip talents fell to us. I just would not expect another TE to contribute as quickly as I think Hockenson would.

Or Friggin Lonnie. I wish I could find a video clip of that time Lonnie caught the ball in Green Bay (I think) and was pointing at himself in the JumboTron, but must have lost track that GB had 11 players that included one Safety who decleated him during his premature victory romp to a TD. Classic Bills moment.

That and NE does a great job in pass pro, been protecting a fairly immobile Brady for a while and has a different rulebook applied in regards to holding. Why I think Rosen would be a good fit there too.

The thing I have seen from Rosen is he has a very technically sound throwing motion, but needs to step into it to be consistent - unlike the wrist-flick and 40 yard tosses you see from Allen from a variety of throwing platforms dictated by situations on the field. So his passes take time if he has to reset to buy some space. He also does not have the same pocket presence as Allen; Once Allen adjusted to the speed of the NFL game he took a lot less sacks. You can see Allen sensing the rush slipping arm tackles and still directing traffic down-field. Combine all that with the fact that Rosen does not have the scrambling ability of Allen and you have a disaster if you do not have a very solid o-line in front of him. It is too early to write off Rosen and I think in the right situation he could be successful, but teams look for QBs that can extend plays and find ways to overcome protection breakdowns. Allen and he were both thrown into pretty poor situations, Allen rose to the challenge because of the other attributes he brings to the position beyond being able to stand in a clean pocket and stepping into throwing perfect strikes.

Nice Gunner. To add to all the other requests you are fielding, what are your thoughts (rating) on Wisconsin's Dieter? Needs some work on his game, but was able to play all three positions on that Badger o-line.

Makes sense with the amount of contact and interest they have had with the kid. As much as I enjoy all the discussion around other prospects, I cannot see Beane drafting a player at 9 that they have not gone out of their way to get to know a lot better.

Yeah, the Bills and the Jets have to play NE twice...easy-peasy. We also get the Phins who are in full tank mode so maybe it balances out.

So no hope that Croom has a break out year in that role? Irv Smith is a gamer, wont try to take that away from him.

Both those guys had decent measurables at the combine, but Warring's blocking is sometimes referred to as atrocious and he had plenty of dropped passes. Sternberger also is someone who is a very poor blocker, but would work out well catching passes out of the TE flex option role. As far as YAC there were some comments that he goes down rather easily...still productive though. I am admittedly biased towards Oliver. The book on Oliver is a player who has a higher ceiling - getting better each year. He has great hands, good body control, good positioning on blocks but lacks some strength. The bio below is in line with most of what I have seen from other sources. https://thedraftnetwork.com/player/josh-oliver Seems to be on the radar for a lot of teams. He is considered a later round target for the Patriots, Steelers, Cowboys, Browns, Denver... mocked to a lot of teams. Some of his highlight stuff on the Patriots prospect site. Video of San Jose St games are not going to be confused with videos done for Alabama https://www.patriots.com/video/2019-draft-prospects-josh-oliver-te-san-jose

If they pass on Hock, Irv Smith is not the answer at 6' 2". My next target with the most upside IMO would be Josh Oliver from San Jose St. Big kid, great measurables from the combine, biggest hands of the class, and you don't hear things like "loses focus, or inconsistent" when it comes to his catching ability like you hear with some of the other prospects. Like most of the later round TE prospects there will be more coaching up needed around refining blocking and routes, but that is to be expected.