WideNine

This. If he has that ceiling and is that 3-down TE that Daboll can use in a variety of personnel packages blocking and catching then it is decent value for that pick, and it is not "the end" if the Bills go in that direction. Probably a moot point because I don't think the Bills have spoken to Hockenson and I don't see them spending their 1st round pick on anyone they have not interviewed and gotten to know better. Still don't mind arguing the merits, but I think the smart money is on DT Oliver.

And keep your QB off of the IR list and help Shady revive his career by opening running lanes. More to being a great TE than JUST catching passes. If the only measurement is receiving yards the team already has Foster, Brown, the CFL guy, WR draft or UFAs... If the draft falls this way I am fine, if we have a shot at one of the blue chip defensive linemen I expect Beane will pull the right trigger. As long as we get a player that can step in and help this team.

I did see his footwork improve over the course of the year. It seemed he did get a lot of coaching about his mechanics and the need to reset his feet quickly to align his lead foot better with the intended spot he is going to throw to underneath, but early on this was an awkward deliberate process where the timing was off. As the season progressed it became a smoother more natural effort, he had better timing and foot placement after his drops to hit more shorter options with good touch. Makes sense that on deeper throws where he doesn't have to reset his feet laterally as much and can step into his throws the proper mechanics come more naturally to Allen along with better ball placement. He will get there as Daboll is probably going to assign him a quota of minimal short passes to complete each game:)

Not going to work too hard to convince you if your mind is made up and that is fine. You can go back and watch one of the very first games below with Josh throwing to see what kind of routes were called: On the very first play you will see the RB (Murphy I believe) provide an uncovered underneath option for Josh - this is pretty standard for most passing plays as there is usually an underneath option, or a dump off option. Yet he does not even consider it. He does hit a deeper option, but that is all he was looking at from the snap on. This is not unusual for strong-armed rookie QBs, it is not a matter of scheme it is a matter of maturing from the hero-ball of Juco and two years at Wyoming to the kind of offense an NFL team wants their QB to be able to run. It is a change in read progression that Josh needs to embrace and it is not usually pre-installed in a draft QB prospect regardless of where he is taken - the two things are not really related. Now taking shorter options may already be there because that is the kind of game a draft QB plays - Mayfield for instance is a shorter QB that many have compared to Breese when he was coming out because of his physical measurables and the way he would spread the ball around, extend plays, and hit the underneath options at Oklahoma. I personally thought his longer passes could be pretty ugly.... at least the ones I saw him throw in their bowl games. Several OBD sources have indicated that this is a learning thing for Allen, not a "we have to provide some underneath routes" kind of thing. Beane went as far as to say in response to a question that they feel it is easier to take a QB that loves to push the ball down the field and teach him to look for the shorter options that to take a QB who is "check-down Charlie" and try to teach him to fire the ball past the sticks when needed.

Actually Daboll normally floods the zones when running the spread with a deep route, a route that is a bit deeper than the sticks and then some underneath routes that force matchup issues. He and McDermott have been public about Josh not taking the high-percentage throws underneath that are there for the taking. NE took advantage of this tendency by ignoring the underneath routes by taking away all the deeper options he prefers and keeping him hemmed into the pocket. It took Allen out of his game and I think was a teaching moment for Allen. There are 3 or more reasons Allen throws deep: One is the Allen lacks the experience to evaluate his presnap reads to find the best matchup that is likely underneath that requires him to anticipate the open option and quickly throw to a spot. It is not a muscle that he has had to exercise in his past. It is not that he can't do this as some of the talking heads seem to think, just that it is not something he has had to do before to win. The second is that Allen prefers to push the ball past the sticks and it is easier to read a receiver coming open deep than anticipating and hitting quickly the open options underneath. The third is that with the pocket quickly collapsing around Allen (pressured on nearly 40% of his drops), he had to move around and plays broke down and when he rolled out he would look for those deeper receiving options aware that he was in trouble who would work to mirror him behind the coverage that had to account for Allen's ability to take off and run it himself. I agree that there were a lot of cheap shots aimed at Allen and that he needs guys with attitude in front of him. I did not even realize till after re-watching a play against the Dolphins that Alonzo tried to take out Allen's knees clearly after Allen had already ran in a TD. Alonzo hurles himself at his knees, but Allen took a few high steps and eluded the shot the same way he managed to shift to avoid the flying elbow to his head when he was sliding. Can't believe what a cheap-shot douche Alonzo turned into over the years.

My thoughts too. My daughter has some special needs that take some patience, but she is my joy and the 99% reason I get up and go to work each day. I can't wrap my brain around anyone harming a child.

That does not seem to match every other account out there. Link? From other accounts he avoided the trap question and had no complaints about how Houston used him, but did feel he would project and be a more natural 3-tech player in NFL. Blew away folks with his pro-day workout and tweeted "in my element" during the process.

Should have kept those thoughts inside...success is the best revenge, but if you mouth off and stink up the field....

Fair enough. I had zero faith the Bills would ever draft another good QB...was just done hoping after so many poor selections and missed prospects. Allen is a very pleasant surprise. The plan out of camp to start Peterman behind that patchwork line after his showing the prior year behind a much better line seemed doomed to failure. It was. The silver lining was Allen got serious reps in and OBD realized that you have to invest in your o-line.

I guess one could always hope that our pick at 9 sucks if that's your thing. If they go with someone not on my radar, my hope is they did their homework and we get the best value. I also hope NE does not land any top tier TEs, because apparently they do know how to use them.

Fant actually reminds me a bit of Ebron coming out. Has dominant to freakish physical talent, but did have concentration lapses and more drops than Hockenson. It was that, the routes, and the less effective blocking that had me rating him a bit lower than Hockenson. Like Ebron he will have dominating plays and then some head-scratchers. Bills fans will quickly sour on a guy who blows past everyone and proceeds to drop the ball, or if Josh gets decapitated and replays show Fant whiffing on a block. He is still really good and his ceiling is higher, but it may take a few seasons to see the consistency match the physical talent. Of course if NE picks him up he will dominate us all over the field right out of the gate

The circular logic is kind of funny Why not a TE in the first? Because no one takes TEs in the 1st, or of the 6 or so TEs taken in the 1st only a handful were great. So out of all those defensive line players taken each year in the 1st they all pan out? Statistically, I would have to lean towards more of those defensive players being rather pedestrian and not turning out to be Aaron Donald II. Some of the Bills best defenders were later round picks (although they have an eye for good DBs and have taken their share early). Too early to tell with Edmunds, but he could become a force too. I really would like a generational talent, but at 9 this year I think it going to be a crap shoot regardless of what direction they go offense or defense. I am not advocating taking a TE at 9, I just wouldn't find it alarming if they did. Oliver at 9 that's my pick, but I have some doubts. Why was he was neutralized against some sub-par offensive lines is he a generational talent, was he hampered by scheme or injury, lack of talent around him, does he have a higher ceiling or did he peak a year ago? I still want us to nab a TE, but the class is deep enough that we may be able to land a good one a bit later who will need more coaching up than the IA prospects, but it's a trade off I could understand. Successful offenses have solid to above average TEs, the position is even more prominent with college and NFL teams using more spread formations with the TE as a flex option. https://www.footballstudyhall.com/2018/12/7/18129492/2018-flex-te-liljordan-humphrey-oklahoma-grant-calcaterra-spread-iso-basketball-on-grass Regardless of what our TBD braintrust thinks about the value of the position, there are 2 to 3 TEs in this draft that will go in the 1st that teams are going to feel are BPA, whether the Bills take one or not. Perhaps that argument of whether or not TEs should be taken in the 1st is moot.

Do you see a sure-fire value at 9 elsewhere? I am not so sure, and I would like us to land a stud edge or tackle. I don't get caught up in where you take certain players if you really like what they can bring...other than punters:) I just don't see us landing any of the defensive blue chippers unless we trade up a few spots, or there is an unlikely run on marginal QBs. I like this defensive class, but feel there are 5-6 top prospects then a lot of maybe guys with high ceilings. You can toss in one or two dbs that could make the top 10 cut too, but not a strong need for this team. If the blue-chippers are gone by our pick then turning to offensive players who can step in and help the team is not that much of a reach. A trade up or down to better align BPA would be preferable. Seems folks are less concerned with taking Hock 4-5 picks later than at 9...seems more like a mental barrier than sound logic.

Not sure, but I think saying "everyone's sleeper pick" would qualify as an oxymoron. ...and yes, I am going through sports withdrawal.

I am a huge Hughes fan, but admit he can be a liability in run defense. His patented outside speed rush too often takes him past the QB level where he has a collection of spin, rip, and counters that do allow him to still get to the QB...maybe not a sack, but pressure and at times fumbles and poorly thrown passes. That same outside speed rush loses contain on the edge and allows teams to run under it...they just need a decent Center who can handle our DTs sans help and have their Guard chip, get to the second level, and neutralize any linebackers trying to fill. Teams that ran on us last year took advantage of Jerry taking himself out of the play on runs because of the way he aggressively plays pass. Not trying to be hyper-critical, as it stands in a pass-happy league it works out more than it hurts...even better when our Bills take a lead and teams abandon their running game.

It is an interesting argument...where to take a TE in the draft. I like this year's defensive class so I am torn a bit. Just got to trust Beans and Co. to make the right call. I think they will go with Oliver as their first pick unless they trade down. When I look at NE's TE draft history past 2 decades, their most successful TEs were all taken in the 1st and 2nd rounds, with the exception of Hernandez... 4th round, some could argue that character concerns drove his draft stock down. I look for NE to restock their TE cupboard this year and their timing is right with a deep class. Funny thing is I doubt that anyone will question where Belichick selects his TEs in the draft. They will just assume he is smarter than they are (correct) and that the pick will work out. I just hope the top talent goes before their picks come up.

Not completely true. Hockenson is the more polished route runner and dominating blocker. Both measured great on the shuttle/agility drills. Fant is faster and has an unbelievable range to high point the ball ....so agree with the red zone threat. Depends what a team is looking for...if you are just looking for a big receiver who creates mismatches and can out run DBs then Fant is your guy, if you are looking for a TE who can block or get open for passes then it is Hock.

He and Fant will likely be better than Kroft. Iowa does a solid job recruiting TE prospects and coaches up the most pro-ready TEs out there. Bucky Brooks referred to them as Tight End U in an article he wrote about "gold jacket" draft prospects. The coach there spent a few years on NEs staff coaching the TE position so you see guys like Kittle (another IA product) come in and break records in his second year. These guys won't have a long learning curve, especially not Hockenson. Fant neither if used primarily as a flex option receiver.

I struggle with the Irv Smith value setting. He was very productive in college, but his combine measurements actually only put him at 6' 2". Many WRs today are bigger. I don't see much in the way of a size mismatch for him at the NFL level, so blocking is probably meh, and out competing in space will be harder with how d coordinators will match him up against larger safeties and dbs, or smaller linebackers in the Milano mold. He's a gamer and I like his compete, but I think he will struggle finding his game at the pro level. We will see...

Good article that covers the 2 Iowa prospects pretty well, and why Hockenson shot up the boards when Fant is arguably more athletic. They are both really good, Hock is more complete as a 3-down TE who not only runs great routes and has dependable hands, he will open run lanes and keep your QB upright, Fant is a matchup nightmare for secondaries. https://www.blackheartgoldpants.com/2018/11/13/18089600/the-curious-case-of-noah-fant-iowa-football-bhgp

Mine will always be our Bills getting the conspiracy spotlight on the X-Files.

We have covered this a lot, but why not it is the off-season and the swordmen are missing the playoffs ....again. I don't get the Hock dissing. I can understand folks thinking he is a reach at 9, or he is not "your guy", but "bust" is a bit too much. He will be solid, and maybe even grow to be dominant at the position. Do I think he should go in the top 10, is what it is. He will go where a team wants to take him and that will be his draft position worth. Anyone that follows the Iowa program knows they can coach up the TE position better than many schools. That is why when the Bills are taking a look at the Ol' Miss prospect they are going to have to factor in more time to coach that kid up - if he has the aptitude. Knox has very good measurables, but when you watch the tape often looks lost, the blocking needs a lot of work, and was an under-utilized feature of their offense. Same for many of the other prospects in this deep class where they may have high ceilings, but you do not see that reflected in their college production. Fant to me is a flex option TE who has the athletism to create a lot of mismatches on the field, just don't expect any blocking from him. If he was willing to do that at Iowa he would not have lost reps to Hockenson. We have that (sort of) with Croom, I don't see them adding another, but who knows. Not sure how good the Bills staff is at developing TEs, Rob Boras has a good looking resume...need to see it produce on the field.

He was basically saying there are folks here that mostly seem to live to piss on everyone's Cheerios. Not sure if it needs to be said, as we hold these truths to be self evident and all that... I don't take it too seriously, I get a good laugh from how creatively this board can punish a careless post.... as long as those who dish it can take it too.

I know right? I was fear mongering too, but realistically Allen has 300 LB defensive tackles who can run sub-5 40's wanting to crush him each play, so wrapping him in bubble wrap doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Plus the kid thinks he can run through them, or leap over them. Must be a knee-jerk negative outlook reaction to years of seeing defeat snatched from the jaws of victory. Hard to be a Bills fan and not have "How could this go horribly wrong?" tattooed on your brain.

This.. I know it is a buzz kill, but too easy for me to imagine something going wrong. Protect the investment for now...