DCOrange

I like Allen personally, but regarding the idea that you need to add 6-10% to Allen's completion percentage due to how few screens, etc. he threw, if you take Allen's splits and normalize it based on the target distribution that Josh Rosen had (who threw it short more often than anyone else), it only bumps Allen's completion percentage up to 58.3%. Normalizing everyone's numbers based on Rosen's pass distribution, you get (this is based on their career numbers rather than just this past year): Baker: 70.5% Darnold: 65.9% Rosen: 60.9% Lamar: 58.7% Allen: 58.3% Unrelated, I looked at the splits between passers when kept clean versus when pressured and then normalized their 2017 numbers as if they were pressured as little as Rudolph was (who was protected better than any of the other top 6 QBs) and doing so gave me these numbers: Baker: 71.1% Rudolph: 65.1% Darnold: 64.2% Rosen: 63.5% Lamar: 60.8% Allen: 60.6%

Depends on the cost, but I prefer Allen over Rosen personally.

Allen isn't the runner that Cam is but he can still be a good read option guy. Beyond that, he has roughly the same physical build, same ability to shake off tackles, similar arm strength (though Allen's is better), similar issues with footwork, and similar ability to make throws with velocity without stepping into the pass.

12. Lamar Jackson 22. DJ Moore 53. Uchena Nwosu 56. Josh Sweat 65. Nathan Shepard 96. MJ Stewart

It's a little low, but I think the usual number is around 20 give or take.

My point is that the idea that Allen busts = front office overhaul isn't the case with just Allen. It's likely the case with whatever QB the front office ties itself to. The idea that the Pegulas would fire Beane if Allen busts but not if Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield, Lamar, Rudolph, etc. bust makes no sense.

Josh Allen never played against Colorado and his completion percentage was never 53%.

This is probably the case no matter which QB they take

I’d be okay with Rudolph at 96.

I'm relatively low on Rosen (have him as my #5 QB), but I don't really buy the lack of winning argument personally. The guy led one of the best offenses in the country despite having WRs that dropped a lot of passes. I agree on basically all the other stuff though.

It's possible that Buffalo lied, but I think the assumption is that Buffalo told Tampa that they'd make a trade if Baker is on the board at 7.

Presumably he got excited and tweeted it out and then his source said he was only telling him under the condition that he keep it to himself or something.

I'm guessing that's what happened here. He got excited and tweeted it out immediately and then his source was like "...but don't tell anyone" and then Allbright deleted it

The ones that make me hesitate: Saquon simply because the odds are pretty bad; if god forbid the Giants trade down he could easily slide past 4 and even if he doesn't, those aren't good odds. I concur with the first responder about the Ridley one. Gun to my head, I'd guess he's the 1st WR taken, but I could easily see DJ or Sutton going ahead of him. I'd rather take the odds and bet on one of those guys.

Allbright doesn't work for either of them and already said he will absolutely be tipping picks as he receives them.

Anyone else notice how misleading the headline is? Mayock doesn't actually say that at all; he simply says that if HE were in charge of the Cardinals, Allen would be the guy that they take.

Could definitely see the Bucs targeting Vita Vea and the Bears Tremaine Edmunds. I think Tampa waits to see if Nelson, Barkley, or Chubb slides to them before they'd pull the trigger on a trade though. Indy is really interesting; could definitely see them wanting to accumulate draft picks but I have a gut feeling they take Denzel Ward at 6.

Top guys available in my mock at 12: Lamar Jackson Minkah Fitzpatrick Tremaine Edmunds Vita Vea

I think Tampa would accept before Beane even completed his sentence if that was being offered. I'd guess it costs a first and a second to move up to 7 as long as Nelson, Barkley, and Chubb are all off the board.

I find this at least semi-believable because OP would really have to think this out pretty well to make up this scenario haha. I guess the assumption here is that Buffalo discussed a deal with Tampa (which has been pretty widely speculated already) that was contingent on Baker being available.

McShay had Gabbert ahead of Cam as well; I didn't really remember that many people preferring Gabbert but I guess it was actually a thing.

And Lauletta at 66

I think Darnold and Allen are the top two on the Bills board; not sure of the order.

I'd be happy to have any of the top 5 (Darnold, Allen, Rosen, Mayfield, Jackson). I just wish that we wouldn't trade away a lot of picks in order to get a specific one when we can probably get one of them at 12 or at the worst by moving up to the 8-10 range.

Made some tweaks to the page this morning: Added a page under the 2018 Prospects menu that includes all of the charts that I've posted here/at Buffalo Rumblings in the past Added a page under the 2018 Prospects menu that lays out my number grading system, my grades for the 2018 prospects, and my grades for them relative to the 2017 prospects Some formatting tweaks to the player-specific pages, making my rankings more obvious Added player comps for the lower-tier prospects that I've scouted (Falk, Litton, and Woodside; the film on Luis Perez is so limited that I don't feel comfortable making comparisons for him).