DCOrange

For whatever it’s worth, one of the Browns radio guys says he knows for a fact that the coaching staff doesn’t want Darnold. He says it’s down to Allen and Mayfield in their mind.

In this scenario, the person I'm responding to is saying that Rosen and Mayfield are a tier below Darnold and Allen. It absolutely is relevant. It's ridiculous to think that this year is so radically different from the past that trades that generally prove to cost 3-4 times more than the reward is suddenly a worthy investment now, especially considering the volume of options available this season. If anything, the argument should be that with as many options as this year's QB class has, trading up should be expected to carry even less value because the volume will likely push worthy draft picks down lower.

I'd be okay with a small trade up, but I'd prefer to stay at 12 rather than trading up for the #2 pick for example.

I imagine that NFL scouts don't view him as nearly the work-in-progress that fans do.

Assuming this is referring to me, my point is that Rosen, Mayfield, Lamar, etc. are all basically the same tier as Darnold/Allen while costing far, far less to acquire. History shows that trading up for the #1 or 2 QB almost never actually nets you the #1 or 2 QB and studies have shown that trading up based on the Jimmy Johnson chart that basically all teams follow is an incredibly poor decision. By trading up what it would require to get one of the top 4 picks you're trading picks that are worth far, far more than the actual value you're likely to get out of the pick. Perhaps the Bills will do so and luckily nail their pick, but history would suggest it's a very poor idea despite the occasional outlier. See the chart below for example that compares the value assigned to each pick by the Jimmy Johnson chart to the actual returned value of those picks.

People are scared of taking a guy in the top 10 that is generally viewed as a work in progress.

You really don't think we can count on at least 2 of the first 6 picks being non-QBs?

Of course, but there's countless reports at this point that a guy like Rosen is likely to slide, perhaps as far as out of the top 10 entirely. Certainly the Bills can get one of the top 5 QBs in the 7-12 range and there's a good chance they'll have multiple options depending on where in that range they settle in.

It makes perfect sense. Again, I'm not saying that Buffalo should wait until 2019 to trade up. I'm saying that due to how many good prospects there are this year, in my opinion, you can get a QB in the 7-12 range of the draft that's just as good a prospect as the one you're getting at #2 or #4. Basically all of the media scouts agree with that take; I'm not even remotely alone in that line of thinking. Regarding the hypothetical that it's impossible to trade up in a year where there are only a couple good QB prospects, that was disproven no longer than two years ago and the Luck draft proved it as well. But again, I'm not advocating that Buffalo should kick the can down the road and try to trade up another year. I'm saying that Buffalo can spend 2 picks to get a guy like Mayfield, Rosen, or Lamar in that 7-12 range versus spending 4 or 5 picks to get Darnold/Allen in the top 4. I don't think the latter group is worth 2-4 times more than the former group.

Yeah, obviously I would hope that if they trade up into the top 4, it's because they disagree with the way draft pundits have graded the QBs this year and that they believe _____ is easily a better option than the #4 or 5 QB. Edit: As I said in my original comment, I don't personally believe a trade up that high is wise this year so obviously that's based on how I personally feel about the QBs. I'd much rather invest one or two picks in Lamar or Mayfield or Rosen than investing 4 or 5 of them in Darnold. I'm not saying that they should pass on QB this year and trade up in a future year instead. I'm saying that IMO, Lamar/Mayfield/Rosen are on par, if not better than Darnold, so why would I want to spend two or three times as much capital on Darnold?

In a year where there's only 1 or 2 good QBs, I think it makes sense. In a year where, for example, I think the gap between QB#1 and QB#5 is non-existent, it doesn't.

I simply don't think trading up to the top 4 this year is wise.

New Dolphins jerseys are really nice. The Jags are just beyond lame, but the helmet change is such a dramatic upgrade that it makes the overall jersey an upgrade.

I hope so, but I don't have much faith that the Bills want him in all honesty. I'd love to find out that all of the attention they've given other QBs was just a smokescreen, but it seems unlikely.

It's possible that they simply think they can evaluate OLine on tape rather than bringing them in and putting them in front of the whiteboard.

I think Mayfield, Darnold, and Allen are the Jets top 3 in some order. I’d guess Baker is #3 on that list but we shall see.

He's more than a safety but I concur that it's a really weird pick. At best he's a rich man's version of Micah Hyde.

The two intriguing things about Falk is: 1. He's willing to step into a hit to make a good throw rather than fading away from his target 2. He tries to let plays develop downfield but is aware of where his check down is if need be Having said that there's a lot of red flags: 1. Injury history 2. Arm strength concerns 3. Even though he knows where his checkdown is, he holds the ball too long; he'll throw the checkdown but he'll release it so late that he ends up taking hits anyways 4. Not as accurate as you'd like from a guy with questionable arm strength Ultimately he's probably a guy that has a long career as a backup QB because he's an intelligent dude, but he's a longshot as a starter IMO.

I like him, but I’d rather take one of the big 5 in the 7-12 range of the draft.

Yes.

For the record, I believe Charlie Campbell from WalterFootball was actually the most accurate of the main draft pundits last year, but due to how much Walter annoys people, the two of them aren't included in studies like this.

I'd be beyond shocked if he retires before the season. I just don't see him screwing Kraft over like that after likely pushing for them to trade Jimmy.

Clearly an analyst on Twitter does not have the same resources as NFL employees. Watching film and breaking down a prospects strengths and weaknesses is what I was referring to. Obviously a Twitter thread isn’t as in-depth as a professional scouting report. This guy scouted Rosen and then provided clips of the weaknesses that he found.

Lol. He’s saying the plays included are some examples of the concerns that he has from watching him overall...literally the same thing all scouts do. Obviously everyone has a bad play every once in awhile. He’s saying these are legitimate weaknesses in his game. You can disagree with his conclusions if you’d like but there’s nothing wrong with using a twitter thread to illustrate the strengths and weaknesses of a prospect.

Feels like it’s Hate On Rosen Day for some reason. This Twitter thread popped up on my timeline today: