Trust The Process

Unlike Granato, Lindy will toughen this young team up.

I'm guessing La'el Collins will play the role David Edwards played last season

I didn’t presume. I did my homework on Samuels with analytics, scouting reports, and how he was used in Washington and with Joe Brady in Carolina. I expect to see mostly the same in Buffalo with slightly better stats. Samuel’s career yards per reception is not impressive, and isn’t a big play threat despite running the 40 yard dash in 4.31 seconds which means he doesn’t play fast.

Who helps Allen and our offense most? Sign Derrick Henry for the money we spent on Samuel, and draft a X WR within the first 2 rounds? OR… Sign Samuel and draft a X WR? Sign Samuel and draft a RB?

My complaint with Beane is bad asset management and for not being skilled at reading the draft board in a WR rich draft. I can replace Davis with a rookie in the first 2 rounds of the draft for a lot less money than what we paid Samuel who only plays 58% of the snaps. The rookie I draft can be Diggs future replacement with a snap count similar to Diggs. Beane just need to do his job and hit on the receiver he drafts. It’s a calculated risk. I can replace Sherfield with a day 3 rookie WR who’s a lot cheaper with much more upside than Hollins.

Huge safety free agency class and we get nothing. Deep WR draft and we sign Hollins and Samuel. We trade Bates but we release Morse And we sign Morrow and depth guys instead of addressing starters. Once again, Beane is doing the opposite of which makes sense. He did the same thing the year we traded for Diggs. The depth at WR was strong in that draft and what Beane chose to do is trade for Diggs instead of drafting Jefferson. We shouldn’t have had to waste additional draft picks and a ton of valuable cap space on Diggs.

The WR depth in this draft is strong. Why spend $8M per year on a JAG like Samuel who’s lucky to get 100 targets when you can draft a WR for a lot less money to do the same? Once again, Quintessential bad asset management by Beane. Also, Samuel lines up 53% of the time in the slot which will take snaps away from mostly Shakir followed by Kincaid which is a huge mistake. When Samuel lines up as a X Receiver he’ll compete for snaps with the player we draft. In 2023, Samuel’s snap share was 56.7% which is what I envision he’ll get here in Buffalo. In my opinion that’s not a good return on investment when I could draft a WR for a lot cheaper in a strong receiver draft. Hollins shouldn’t have been signed for up to $3M per year either when we could’ve drafted a WR on Day 3 to do the same or more for a lot less money.

My post is not about who’s likely to re-sign with us, but is about what I’d like for us to pay. “So nobody then? We gonna put a hotdog vendor at DT”? that’s what Free Agency and the Draft is for.

We have a grand total of 23 players we need to replace on our roster. 14 DEFENSIVE, 7 OFFENSIVE, and 2 SPECIAL TEAMS. Beane has a lot of work to do, especially on the defensive side of the ball. BILLS DEFENSE: 14 (3 DE's, 5 DT, 1 LB, 3 CB's, and 2 SAFETYS) DE AJ Epenesa DE Shaq Lawson DE Leonard Floyd DT Tim Settle DT Jordan Phillips DT DaQuan Jones DT Linval Joseph DT Poona Ford LB Tyrel Dodson CB Tre White CB Dane Jackson CB Cam Lewis (also plays Safety) SS Micah Hyde FS Jordan Poyer OFFENSE: 7 (3 WR's, 2 RB's, 1 C, and 1 G) WR Gabriel Davis WR Trent Sherfield WR Deonte Harty RB Ty Johnson RB Latavius Murray C Mitch Morse G/C Ryan Bates SPECIAL TEAMS (2) ILB Tyler Matakevich CB Siran Neal (also plays CB)

The biggest complaint that I have with Beane is he historically mismanages cap space. The bottom of the roster, especially the Special Teams, gets paid too much. He also hands out too many mid-tier player contracts. For example, instead of paying big free agent dollars on one elite or Pro Bowl level DT, he'll sign 2 good DT's for around the same money the great one received. Since Beane got hired, for the most part, has failed miserably at signing Free Agents along the DL and at spending premium draft picks along the DL within the first 3 rounds of the draft which is where you find blue chip prospects and foundational pieces of your team, and where the margin of error must be at its lowest because precious cap dollars are invested in those picks. Every mistake is multiplied. Another thing that I noticed is Beane is an impatient person. Want proof? He traded up 4 times in the past 6 drafts, and signs an above average amount of players before the beginning of Free Agency. He needs to relax and let things play out and let things/opportunities come to him. He needs to improve at reading the draft board in the first 3 rounds and at reading the Free Agent pool. Want proof? 2020 was the year we traded for Diggs, and that was the year the NFL Draft was LOADED with WR's. And, despite it being a strong receiver draft, what did Beane choose to do? He chose to trade our first-round pick (No. 22 overall), a 2020 fifth-round pick, a 2020 sixth-round pick, and a 2021 fourth-round pick for Diggs and a 7th round pick. Pick number 22 overall ended up being Justin Jefferson. Beane panicked, he didn't trust himself enough to hit on a receiver in the draft instead.

Hard NO to Settle who's just another guy I can replace with someone else cheaper. Hard NO to Phillips, gimp, can't trust his availability. Hard NO to Lawson who's just another guy. I'd rather draft his replacement on Day 3 of the Draft. I'd bring back Floyd but only for less than market value which isn't going to happen anyways. Jones for no more than $3M per year for 1-2 years Epenesa for no more than $5M per year

The Safety Free Agent market is loaded. What's the rush, Beane? Since the Safety market is loaded and most are better than Rapp is, McBeane could've taken a calculated risk and banked on him being available when the market goes dry and sign him for between vet minimum $915K and no more than the $1.77M he made last season. The reason why McBeane re-signed Rapp is because they have trust issues which is why they sign a lot of players they're familiar with. Trubisky and Haack is back for the very same reason. The Steelers released Trubisky 23 days ago, nobody wanted him. Why sign him now when you could've taken a calculated risk and waited to see what offers he gets from other teams before you offer him a contract? Last season Trubisky played like a 3rd string QB for God sakes and a veteran minimum QB!!! Based on that, in my opinion, is what Trubisky's market value should be.

Harty should be the next cap casualty

I want us to draft a receiver who's a threat to score on any given play which is why I'm intrigued with Worthy.

These are my 5 favorite WR's. I'd be thrilled to draft any one of them.

@spotrac has the #Bills at $287.9 million in Top 51 player contracts, putting them at an estimated $32.5 million over the new salary cap limit of $255.4. Some work for Brandon Beane to do - as we’ve been discussing - but not as bleak a picture as a few weeks ago.

*VALUE FREE AGENTS ACCORDING TO MOSTLY SPOTRAC AND PFF ANNUAL AVERAGE SALARY DEFENSE SS Jeremy Chinn: $3M SS Jordan Fuller: 6M SS Julian Blackmon: 6M FS Alohi Gilman: $4-$5M FS Darnell Savage: $4.5M FS Jordan Fuller: $6M DE Yetur Gross-Matos: I couldn't find a projected Average Annual Salary for Gross-Matos but should be affordable DE Clelin Ferrell: $3M DE Carl Lawson: $3M DE Marcus Davenport: 3.5M DE: Yannick Ngakoue: $4M DE A.J. Epenesa: $5.6M DE Tyquan Lewis: $6M DE D.J. Wonnum: $6.5M DE Jadeveon Clowney: $7.2M-$9M DE Denico Autry: $7.25M DE Andrew Van Ginkel: $7.5M DE Leonard Floyd: $8.1M DE Josh Uche: $8.3M DE Dorance Armstrong: $8.5M LDT Sebastian Joseph-Day: $3.5M LDT Raekwon Davis: $4M LDT Javon Kinlaw: $5.4M LDT Teair Tart: 4M RDT: Maurice Hurst: $1.5M OFFENSE RWR Jalen Reagor: $1M RWR Van Jefferson: $2.3M RWR Donovan Peoples-Jones: $2.7M RWR Devin Duvernay: $3M RWR: D.J. Chark: $4M (as low as 4M (A to Z Sports) and as high as $10.9M (Spotrac) RWR Kendrick Bourne: $5M RWR Josh Reynolds: $5.5M-$7M RB Ty Johnson: $1.1M RB Rashad Penny: $1.5M RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire: $1.6M RB J.K. Dobbins: $2M RB Ezekiel Elliott: $2.7M (I listed Zeke just because McBeane loves to sign veteran RB's) RB D'Onta Foreman: $3M RB A.J. Dillon: $3.5M RB Antonio Gibson: $3.6M

Poyer and Hamlin are under contract, and Rapp and Hyde are both unrestricted free agents, which means we have 2 Safety roster spots to fill which doesn't include Cam Lewis who's also a free agent and an emergency Safety. Beane made it clear we're not going to break the bank in free agency, at best we'll sign one for up to mid-level money with an Annual Average Salary in the $5-8M range which is currently outside of the top 19 highest paid Safety's in the league. Below is a list of some of the UFA Safety's that I like that projects an Average Annual Salary of up to $8M. SS Jeremy Chinn: $3M (built like a linebacker and runs like a cornerback, Chinn is a freak, do-everything safety/linebacker/nickel back similar to Rapp) SS Julian Blackmon: $6M (another do-everything Rover Safety/LB/NB in the mold of Chinn and Rapp. Indy DC Gus Bradley runs a Cover 3 Defense, same as McD) FS Jordan Fuller: $6M (is a ball-hawking FS. 2023 stats include 68 PFF, 3 FF, 3 INT's, 5 Pass Breakups to go along with the lowest passer rating against of his career. Fuller was one of the better graded tackling and run defense safeties by PFF’s metrics) FS Geno Stone: $8M (2nd in the NFL with 7 INT's while playing nearly 1,000 snaps. 84.9 PFF coverage grade. A deep FA safety crop might reduce his market. FS Alohi Gilman: I couldn't find an Average Annual Salary for Gilman but I'm assuming he won't cost much. Gilman is my super sleeper of the free agent Safety group. Versatile player who can play both deep and in the box. 86.1 PFF. 73 Total Tackles 3 FF, 2 INT's, and 10 Pass Breakups. Gilman was PFF’s 7th highest-graded safety and 5th best in coverage.

Aside from the multiple hall of famers, the trait that the 4 straight Super Bowl teams had that this team doesn’t have is swag

If you wanna head coach to rebuild the culture and make the playoffs? McD is your man. Want to win a Super Bowl? McD is not your man. I predict McD gets fired after the 2025 season. Pegs will serve us a new batch of Kool-Aid by hiring a new head coach when the new stadium is ready to go in 2026. Book it.

Most of the Bills cap dollars and premium draft picks have been spent on defense yet McD's defense is allowing an average of 27.6 PPG in 6 playoff losses. YIKES!!

Not sure, however, when you have a great QB like Allen, McD must have a better a winning percentage than 52% in one score games.

This is how I assess blame as to why the Bills haven't been more successful ever since McBeane took over. McD: 55% Beane: 30% Players: 15% McD's RECORD IN 1 SCORE GAMES 2017: 6-3 2018: 3-3 2019: 4-6 2020: 6-1 2021: 0-6 2022: 7-3 2023: 6-7 McD's record in 1 score games including the playoffs is 32-29 equals a winning percentage of 52.4%. This stat proves when its crunch time McD is average, which is unacceptable, and has been detrimental in the playoffs. McD's RECORD ON CHALLENGES 2017: 1-3 2018: 0-6 2019: 2-3 2020: 2-3 2021: 1-2 2022: 1-3 2023: 3-3 McD has a combined record of just 10-23 on challenges since becoming Head Coach of the Bills. That's a success rate of only 30.3% which is amongst the worst in the NFL when it comes to tossing the flag. Incredibly, McD has never had a season in which he has won more challenges than he has lost. McD's PLAYOFF VICTORIES 2020: Phillip Rivers and Lamar Jackson (Wildcard Round and Divisional Round) 2021: Mac Jones (Wildcard Round) 2022: Skylar Thompson (Wildcard Round) 2023: Mason Rudolph (Wildcard Round) Notice a pattern here? Aside from a 39 year old Rivers, McD's playoff victories came verses QB's who suck. McD's PLAYOFF LOSSES 2017: Blake Bortles (Wildcard Round) 2019: Deshaun Watson (Wildcard Round) 2020: Pat Mahomes (AFC Championship Game) 2021: Pat Mahomes (Divisional Round) 2022: Joe Burrow (Divisional Round) 2023: Pat Mahomes (Divisional Round) The pattern here is, aside from losing to Blake Bortles, McD hasn't beaten any great QB's in the Playoffs. Watson was a great QB at the time McD faced him. POINTS ALLOWED IN PLAYOFF LOSSES 2017: 1O vs Jacksonville 2019: 22 vs Houston 2020: 38 vs Kansas City 2021: 42 vs Kansas City 2022: 27 vs Cincinnati 2023: 27 vs Kansas City The pattern here is McD's defense is allowing a whopping average of 27.6 PPG in 6 playoff losses. McD is a defensive coach yet his defenses has gotten shredded in 4 of 6 playoff losses, 4 years in a row to be exact. Wrap your brain around that. NOTABLE PLAYOFF STATLINE IN 3 GAMES VS KANSAS CITY CHIEFS McD's defense only forced the Kansas City Chiefs to Punt a grand total of 4 times in 3 playoff games, and allowed an average of 35.7 PPG. Good grief. How in the world is McD still the head coach of this team? It boggles the mind. Beane shares the 2nd most blame, mostly for doing a bad job with Free Agency. Didn't spend cap dollars wisely, especially on the defensive line. Bad contracts. As far as the draft goes, Beane has done a great job from rounds 4-7 but at an average job in rounds 1-3 which is where you find your blue chip players/difference makers, and where precious cap dollars are spent. The Players shares the least most blame, mostly for not making enough plays to win in crunch time in one score games during the regular season, and more so in the playoffs. The bottom line is stats don't lie, it tells a story.

The Bills currently have 21 Unrestricted Free Agents and are set to start the offseason approximately $51 million over the cap which means Brandon Beane has his work cut out for him just to free up enough cap space to fill out his roster, sign his draft class, and have enough cap space leftover for the regular season. Here's what I would do this offseason if I were Brandon Beane. Below is a list of 21 Unrestricted Free Agents. I would re-sign 5 of the 21 FA's. *UNRESTRICTED FREE AGENTS 1. WR Gabe Davis 2. WR Trent Sherfield 3. RB Latavius Murray 4. RB Ty Johnson: re-signed $1.5M 5. RB Damien Harris 6. QB Kyle Allen 7. OL David Edwards: re-signed $2M 8. FS Micah Hyde 9. S Taylor Rapp 10. DE Shaq Lawson 11. DE A.J. Epenesa: re-signed $5.5M 12. DE Leonard Floyd 13. DT DaQuan Jones 14. DT Tim Settle 15. DT Jordan Phillips 16. DT Poona Ford 17. DT Linval Joseph 18. LB Tyrel Dodson: re-signed $3M 19. CB Dane Jackson: re-signed $3M 20. CB Cam Lewis 21. ST Tyler Matakevich *RELEASED RB Nyheim Hines: Cap Hit in 2024 is $5.5M with a Dead Cap of 500K is a cap savings of $5M. WR Deonte Harty: Cap Hit in 2024 is $5.57M with a Dead Cap of $1.37M is a cap savings of $4.2M. C Mitch Morse: The problem here is that at 32 (in April), Morse is set to make $11.2 million in the final year of his deal. Cutting him saves $8.4M, and the team is due to draft or sign a younger center anyway. Morse is a difficult Bills cut candidate to jettison this offseason, but it only gets harder from here. For the time being Ryan Bates will be my starting Center while the young Center develops. SS Jordan Poyer: When Poyer hit free agency last season, he expected a big market, but it never came and he returned on a two-year deal worth $10 million. Age and injuries appeared to wear on Poyer this season and it was clear doesn’t possess the same range anymore. Cutting Poyer saves $5.7M in cap space. LB Von Miller: There's lyrics in Kenny Rodgers song ''The Gambler'' that says ''You've got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em, know when to walk away, and know when to run''. It's high time to cut our losses and move on. Von is washed up, and his valuable roster spot can be put to better use with someone younger and heathier. The thinking here would be to get out of his contract before the remaining $6.43M of 2024 salary becomes fully guaranteed. Without a Post June 1st Designation, Buffalo would take on a $32.5M dead cap hit (including $10.71M cash), which would represent an $8.6M cap loss for 2024. I'd designate Von as a Post June 1st Designation which would mean $17.08M of 2024 dead cap ($10.71M cash), & another $15.4M of 2025 dead cap. This would free up $6.8M of cap space for the Bills next year, but not until June 2nd. I'm willing to bite the bullet. Addition by subtraction. *CONTRACT RESTRUCTURE QB Josh Allen LG Connor McGovern IOL Ryan Bates LB Matt Milano *DON'T RESTRUCTURE WR Stephon Diggs TE Dawson Knox *CONTRACT EXTENSIONS OT Dion Dawkins: UFA after 2024. Offer a 2 year contract extension through 2026. CB Rasul Douglas: UFA after 2024. Offer a 2 year contract extension through 2026. CB Taron Johnson: UFA after 2024. Offer a 2 year contract extension through 2026. *PAY CUT RESTRUCTURE WITH INCENTIVES FOR SNAPS/GAMES PLAYED CB Tre White: White is coming back from a torn Achilles without a timetable for return, his 2nd long-term injury in 3 seasons. 2024 Cap Hit is $16.4M with a $10.4M Dead Cap. Releasing White saves $6M in cap space. I'd ask White to accept a $6M Pay Cut with the opportunity to earn that back by hitting incentives, but if White disagrees, I'll designate him as a post-June 1 release which saves $10.2M in cap space. *TEAM NEEDS 3 WR's to replace Davis, Sherfield, and Harty 1 RB to replace Latavius Murray 3 DE's to replace Miller, Floyd, and Lawson 5 DT to replace Jones, Phillips, Settle, Ford, and Joseph (DL gets revamped) 1 FS to replace Hyde 1 SS to replace Poyer 1 HYBRID SAFETY to replace Rapp (Safety group gets revamped) 1-2 CB's to replace Lewis and possibly White *FREE AGENT ADDITIONS FS Geno Stone: $8.5M AAV, replaces Hyde SS Jeremy Chinn: $3M AAV, replaces Poyer DE Jadeveon Clowney: $7M AAV, replaces Floyd LDT Sebastian Joseph-Day: $3.5M, replaces Jones RDT Maurice Hurst Jr: $1.5M replaces Settle WR Kendrick Bourne: $5M AAV or WR Darnell Mooney on the cheap (Spotrac projected Mooney AAV at $10.4M. He should be half that much) RB J.K. Dobbins: $2M AAV *NFL DRAFT: 10 total draft picks. 1,2, comp pick 3, 4, two 5th's, three 6th's and a 7th. 2 WR'S: My draft plan is to add 2 explosive WR''s. The traits this receiving core lacks is speed, size, explosiveness, yards after the catch, and separators. The offense also finished last in the league completing deep middle passes. These are huge needs which must be addressed. The first would be an Outside X-Receiver with size, speed, and big play ability who stretches the field. With the 28 overall pick I'm hoping LSU WR Brian Thomas Jr or Oregon WR Troy Franklin is available. If not, trade out of the 1st round with a team selecting early in the 2nd round and draft Xavier Legette instead. The second WR will be selected on Day 3. Some of the notable WR's who's projected to be Day 3 picks that I like is Virgina WR Malik Washington, UCF WR Javon Baker, Illinois WR Isaiah Williams, and Idaho WR Hayden Hatten. Round 1: WR Brian Thomas Jr or WR Troy Franklin. If both aren't available trade out of 1st rd with team early in the 2nd and draft South Carolina WR Xavier Legette. Any one of these 3 WR's replaces Davis. Round 2: LDT T'Vondre Sweat, replaces LDT Jones Round 3: DE Round 4: C Round 5: SS Round 5: CB Round 6: RDT Round 6: WR Round 6: DE Round 7: OT