pennstate10

My point still stands. Any time someone comes up with a new metric, ie “Win probability added per dropback”, you should ask yourself, how is this calculated? And more importantly, has this been shown to be predictive on an independent data set? Until I see evidence that this measurement is truly predictive, I’ll consider it useless.

Lies damn lies and statistics. Any “clutch” metric that places Mahomes in the bottom 20%tile is severely flawed. This should be obvious. Just because someone makes a chart and puts it on Twitter doesn’t mean it’s useful.

49ers definitely made the wrong call. Bills Eagles not. So clear. Rules in regular season are different, and Bills had the win in hand if Davis turned the right way.

I wonder if the length of that throw affected Diggs timing and eye hand coordination. im sure Diggs has lot of practice timing and catching 40-50 yd throws. But how much experience does anyone have at catching 65 yd throws?

Wait a second here. This is a family friendly board. None of your porn antics here.

Ahh, not so sure Butler is a good coach. He was DB coach at PSU, hired partly on the recommendation of Bill OBriens strength coach. Then promoted to DC because OB was too lazy to do a search. Failed miserably as a DC and would throw players under the bus. Then went to Texans with OB but fired as his unit performed poorly. Then hired by his high school buddy McDermott. Seems to me the guys floats by on his buddies coattails. And before someone chimes in that he did a great job coaching up Tre, Hyde, and Poyer—they were all on team for at least one season before Butler started. The only DB to develop under Butler was Taron Johnson.

Oh jeez, not this ish again…

To be clear, there is absolutely zero chance that Josh is traded or released this offseason. Zero. Zip. Nada. is it possible that Diggs gets released or traded? Maybe. Or at least that’s what the internet says. So these aren’t equal situations.

Ahh, I’m not sure that touches the Lamonica trade.

Why does Brady look 2-4 inches taller than Josh in this clip?

Actually Chiefs receivers dropped quite a few throughout the season. The reversed that trend in the divisional game and had zero drops against the Bills.

I like your top 10, but I’m pretty sure Penix ends up pushing one of those guys out. There’s always at least one QB who surprises and gets picked top 10. I like the Bills picks, provided Bullick runs a 4.5 or better. I’m not sure he’s got adequate straight line speed.

Agree that Jones is the most important guy on this list. But I think he has 2 good years left at most.

I haven’t read this thread but I will predict some dweeb will be saying, “well, the analytics say if you go for a first down on both of those plays you increase your win% to 53.472%. That’s the crux of the entire analytics problem. Going for it on 4th dandy 5 at your 30 yd line when you have Mahomes and Kielce playing against some scrubs is a world different than Goff and whoever against the 49ers defense. But the analytics doesn’t know how to properly weigh situations when there are infinite relevant variables.

Sorry you’re wrong. The amount of cap dollars Bills have rolled over in the past few years is minimal. I doubt any competitive team has rolled over more than 10% of the cap during their successful years. The teams that roll over 10% of the cap are the losing teams that don’t have good players to pay. If you’re trying to argue that Beane SHOULD have been rolling cap dollars over every year since 2018, I’d say rolling cap dollars into the future when you’re in Allen’s peak window is not a wise move. Every team pushes cap money into the future. That’s the entire concept of amortizing bonuses. I’m pretty sure that no bonuses paid in 2018 are factored into Bills 2024 cap.

The flaw in this line of reasoning is the assumption that most NFL head coaches are drawn from the NFL player pool. They’re not. Bellichek, Lombardi, and Walsh are probably the 3 best NFL HC of the modern era. They collectively played zero downs in the NFL. What is true is that almost all NFL HC played high school football. Or lower level college football. That is the real pool that’s being drawn from.

Im pretty sure that is exactly what will happen.

Good post. The only move ups that I think make sense are putting 6-7 round picks together to get another 5. Rounds 1-5 are where the moneys at, so try to get as many of these as you can. And yes, I know Benford was a 6th round pick. But what other 6-7 round picks have the Bills made that were quality starters for the Bills in the last 5 years?

Disagree completely with your first sentence. It’s simply wrong. There was no player contract signed in 2018 that is in force today. It’s not up for debate. The statement is clearly wrong.

? What am I missing here. It seems that the guidance specifically states that playcalling is NOT a requirement.

I’m not sure that what you say about nickable is correct. I doubt there is anything in the nfl rules about a permissible lateral move being dependent on playcalling. I think it would be impossible to enforce, especially since playcalling is often fluid.

This is the most useful post in the thread. it’s not a clear cut right/wrong decision. For instance, the fake punt was the wrong decision for many reasons. Here, you had a clearer throw to Diggs without 600 lbs of beer in your way. But that wouldn’t have been a td. But it could have led to bleeding the clock. But Diggs had the dropsies. there were a ton of variables going into the decision, and many unknowns. I can’t say Josh made the wrong decision. On balance though, I would have liked the higher percentage throw on that play

No. That’s exactly the problem. McD hears that he’s too conservative, so he decides to shut up his critics and be aggressive at the wrong time. Yes, it was an aggressive call. You know what else? It was a stupid decision. Penn States coach (James Franklin) does the exact same thing. Calling a fake FG from the 2 yd line. Is that aggressive? Yup, no one expects it. Why? Because it’s stupid.

I actually consider Kelly to be a Super Bowl winning QB. he did exactly what Brady did to win his first Super Bowl. Guided his team to a game winning FG in the last minute of the game. Not his fault that the kicker failed.

Lost in this entire discussion is the fact that the throw to Diggs would have been substantially easier than the throw to Shakir. The throw to Diggs, if Allen had taken it, would have occurred about 0.5 sec befor the throw to Shakir. When there wasn’t 600 lbs of beef in your face. A much easier throw. Josh gambled that he could hold the ball another 0,5 seconds to allow Shakir to uncover and then throw. It was a reasonable gamble given that the reward (TD) for the throw to Shakir was much higher. The safe play was the throw to Diggs. Given all the variables, including Diggs dropsies, shaky FG kicker, ability of KC to drive down field, it’s really impossible to say which was the right choice.