Richard Noggin

Totally agree. The most effective defenses stop the run (and of course get after the QB, but you can't necessarily get after the QB when the offense is getting after YOU).

Looking at the bolded in particular: over the last decade, Vegas has actually been MOST accurate (in the entire NFL) when predicting the Bills W/L record, according to https://nationalfootballpost.com/win-totals/. Now I know past results do not necessarily predict future outcomes, but we should not so casually dismiss the Vegas predictions. Unlike sports writers and fans, the casinos have quantifiable skin in the game. There are myriad scenarios (injuries, historically inconsistent defensive results from year-to-year, lack of progression from young players, etc.) wherein the Bills fall short of ten wins. Ten wins would mean that nearly every ? on the team becomes a + in 2019. It CAN happen. But it's not statistically likely. That being said, go Bills. Win the bleeping division.

I'll chime in on this one, too. Only way McBeane DOES NOT get another season at the helm is if the team implodes and fields an unwatchable product (see also: September & October 2018 (minus Minnesota) and November 2017). Those stretches of embarrassing ineptitude cannot continue. But short of that kind of failure, I don't see McBeane on the hot seat at all.

I have moonlighted as a high-end server (waiter) for a long time. In Orlando I often interacted with golf and baseball legends. In Dallas I dealt with NBA players all the time (as we were across the street from the hotel visiting teams used). In Buffalo for the past seven years I've had some consistent and incredible access to Bills and Sabres personnel up and down the orgs. A bit off-topic, but in Dallas in the leadup to George Strait's mega-concert to open Jerry World, I had a fifteen-top that included Jason Garrett, Jay Cutler, Kerry Collins, and someone else notable I'm forgetting. Garrett point-blank asked Collins what he thought of Vince Young (they played together on the Titans at the time). Collins gave an interesting but diplomatic answer: "he's an every-now-and-then guy. Every now and then, he'll do something that makes you go "whoa.""

Gosh, that's a reasonable take. How dare you?!

The adult thing to do. I approve. "You eat pieces of **** for breakfast?" It all makes sense now.

This is it right here. Balanced but hopeful.

You're avoiding, overlooking, or unaware of some metrics that show Hughes' 2018 performance in a much more favorable light: "Hughes’ pass-rushing performance was truly among the best in the game in 2018. On 397 pass-rushing snaps, he had the second-highest pass-rushing grade (90.4), the highest pass-rush win rate (23.9%) and the league’s highest pressure rate (19.7%). When there was no blitz or stunt executed by the Buffalo defense, Hughes posted a staggering 25.6% pass-rush win rate — by far the best among edge defenders — but on top of that, Hughes was still at the top when a stunt was indeed executed by Buffalo. His 90.1 pass-rush grade from such plays was the highest among edge defenders, with second-place Demarcus Lawrence far in the rearview mirror, at 85.6." https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-jerry-hughes-is-an-unsung-hero-on-the-buffalo-bills-defense-fully-deserving-of-a-two-year-extension

Your take on Hughes makes some sense. In a best-case scenario kind of way, but still has merit. Your use of "seen" is so wonderfully WNY that I just don't know what to say. I can hear your typed words. Carry on. Regional dialects are a healthy, natural part of linguistics.

I don't really disagree with you. Just pointing out that your OP maybe avoids the advantageous "unknown" of a new coaching staff and scheme that the Jets present to the Bills staff leading up to week one. I still value the Bills players having now a second off-season in the same playbook; don't oversimplify what I'm saying to make it some kind of binary opposition to you. Just don't also overlook competing narratives. There's room for complexity.

Interesting comment, considering that Brown is a slick-enough politician not to ever display actual personality traits in public. (Which is not a terribly complimentary take.) So how is he a "douche"? I don't ask in a partisan way at all. His policies don't define his behavior. And "douche" is such a particular term for people who behave a certain way...

I don't exactly disagree on general terms, except that this particular circumstance tilts the gameplan advantage to the Jets' favor. McD's week one gameplan guessing game is far more hypothetical than Gase's. His coaches have several years of concrete, Buffalo Bills film to base their gameplan on. And hell, Gase has faced McD's Bills first-hand four times over that span. So the current book on Buffalo (their team can evolve, of course) is well-established. The New York Jets, on the other hand, are MUCH more mysterious and difficult to tailor a gameplan to. New schemes and new personnel.

Love the honesty. Of course that's where most fans fall: in this highly subjective place of watching the games live (in-person or on TV either at a business or a private home) and forming (sometimes strong) assessments based upon imperfect, fleeting, and incomplete information (often gathered while we curse, converse, gesticulate, drink, pace about). I thought, in total disagreement, that Lawson made impactful plays, on meaningful downs, deflecting passes (especially as the season wore on). I'm sure stats can prove me right or wrong here. That being said (that fans like me have subjective and/or faulty opinions), I think the decade-plus drought would have been interrupted if Wilson had simply, post-Butler, implemented a crowd-sourced, Bills fan referendum approach to major football decisions. Poll the fans prior to the draft, free agency, and hiring head coaches and coordinators, and execute those majority decisions. It's not a good NFL success plan, but it would have avoided some draft blunders, fo sho.

Which makes it an even more puzzling pick, as I have personally witnessed Doug Whaley doing an unflattering imitation of Trent Richardson taking a handoff and trying to make a cut. He took like thirteen quick stomps forward/backward/sideways before moving forward. It was actually kind of funny. He did this in front of McCoy and a few other players and personnel, if I recall correctly.

I was having similar reactions, or at least questions, as I read the OP. Are new coaches historically UNsuccessful in early-season games, especially in the last three to five seasons? The OP seems to be assuming (or knowing) that coaching changes tend to result in early season losses, for the reasons provided in that post. HOWEVER, my initial thought, as I try to see it through an opposing gameplanner's perspective, is that new coaches and schemes with ZERO actual NFL game film with their current teams present a unique and probably frustrating challenge: akin to scouting college talent, the gameplanners must predict and project how previous schematic and situational traits and performance will translate and develop in new circumstances. That seems far more worrisome, ahead of time, than how well the opponent will execute said plans in-game. NFL coaches and players thrive on studying their opponents' specific tendencies. They hate the unknown.

Dunning-Kruger reference on TBD? Outstanding. But in the golden age of entitled, self-promoting, unreflective blowhard grifters...why isn't Ryan flourishing?

This quote speaks to me.

Totally agree. I'm guilty of it myself. But then again, since the 2012/Mario Williams off-season, I've enjoyed some limited but unique access to internal goings-on with players, coaches, executives, etc., which encourages a more nuanced and subjective perspective on the team; sometimes positively and sometimes negatively. In large part, though, these are often impressive people who inspire confidence in those around them (results notwithstanding). I'll ask again because I'm genuinely interested: IF you were once less skeptical as a Bills fan, when i n the last 25+ years did you finally reach your tipping point with the team?

Two objectively AND subjectively solid posts in a row. Multiple opportunities to defecate on the Bills roster/depth and you kept it classy and forward-leaning. Moreover, I completely agree with your points. I'll bet you're really a savvy and funny guy "in real life," despite your persona here (and on the BBMB before that). I'll bet most "realist"/ toxic Buffalo fans were once hopeful and energetic supporters. Which disastrous decision or on-field debacle was most damaging for you? (I ask sincerely.) I've been hurt, too.

'Zo definitely lined up in the middle for a portion of the game (play #4 in the link shows one instance of this). Watch the man do it. He's good at it.

I think I agree with your negotiation of my previous points. Reasonable back-and-forth. Feels good.

I don't hate this narrative for last season, but it IS a glossy, Allen-centric depiction of something far more circumstantial and nuanced than we see here. Again, I mostly agree. But why are so many fans drawn to such polarized interpretations? There's no monetary fan award for being proven right first about certain players, coaches, transactions, etc. I disagreed with the pick at first. Then the Bills had a meltdown at QB. Then Allen returned from the elbow injury (suffered in a Texans game most of us agree Allen would have steered to victory--which never gets brought up in the pre- vs post-injury critique, that maybe the rookie was progressing on-the-job even BEFORE his step-back) with some kind of spark, and/or leadership, and/or improved play, and I was sold. I'm excited to watch him play in 2019. But let's not ignore the full truth. He was REALLY bad at times last season. He panicked in ways an NFL QB never should, especially the tendency to turn his back to the pass rush rather than step up. Resulted in some laughable film. Let's be reasonable?

Agree to an extent. Allen was dealing with early, disruptive pressure on too many plays. But no "cynical man" completely white washes Allen's issues setting protections, reading defenses pre- and post-snap, and seeing the whole field quickly. The OP really sweeps too much under last year's turf. But for the record, I'm more optimistic than pessimistic about his chances to improve.

Your eye for detail is appreciated here. Any high-functioning 4-3 defense needs on-field fluency from its MLB. That means a clear succession plan at the position. Stanford seemed to my limited eye to grow into that role last season. However, I will go to my grave believing that #57 Lorenzo Alexander can, in a pinch, play MLB at a HIGH level in the NFL. The 2018 wildcard playoff loss to JAX is my primary evidence to support this claim. https://www.buffalobills.com/video/top-5-lorenzo-alexander-plays-afc-wild-card-20215128

I hadn't added it up (thank you), but I was immediately thinking that his projected offensive roster is a little bloated/indulgent at the skill positions. I'd guess fewer WR(s) in favor of another DL, DB (or even a hard maybe on LB). Fans will thus worry over some interesting, albeit unproven, offensive players out there in the wind after cuts. It's a good "problem" to have, I say. My 21st century roster-building mantra: QB plus those paid to quarrel over him (TM). That's who REALLY matters. It's not a new idea.