Richard Noggin

When I go down this path of lamenting all of the unfortunate, and often concentrated among a couple position groups, injuries the Bills have had to manage into the divisional and championship rounds of the playoffs in recent years, I mostly just angrier about 13 Seconds and the opportunity squandered that year. We had young Josh Allen HISTORICALLY ON FIRE in an era when offenses still had that pandemic upper-hand of referees mostly ignoring offensive holding. To see Allen and Co (Davis) win that game in legendary fashion, and then to watch McD and his coaches actively string together an improbable chain of historic blunders, resulting in an overtime loss.......really redefined the term "Billsy" for the world to see, and has always been unconscionable for me (and many others). Despite my immense appreciation for Sean McDermott's culture of process and success, I have for two offseasons wished for McD to get fired and replaced by Ben Johnson. That dream died this year. So as always, I will be rooting for McD and his team, in Orchard Park for half the games, screaming when we're on defense and shutting the eff up when we're on offense. Go Bills May this be the blessed year it all comes together.

Commit to the bit.

I'm uncharacteristically guilty of not knowing (beyond what you've shared) the objective stats/traits on Dolac and even Andreesen, and only knowing what I've heard/read from others. Weird especially because I have historically LOVED football for offseason "franchise mode" as much as for the actual games. The scouting/draft process, player development, and roster management were all we had to latch onto for hope for decades. Those early Bills drought years coincided with my early 20s and grad school, which just happened to include a handful of the very best iterations of Madden football.

Sounds good to me. Bills would obviously give him elevation guarantees and would probably use those up early and often while this other guy gets up to speed and Hancock gets healthy and more seasoned.

I think Ingram was retained to potentially start outside in White's absence early on. He has seen the field and acquitted himself well enough for a short term and/or rotational stint. Plus he offers position/scheme flex (dime/nickel safety looks) and probably would play STs? Who are candidates to be cut and reliably signed to PS? Lundt? Hamlin (doubt it)? Or maybe a sneaky "injury" somewhere simplifies the decision...

Van Demark hasn't exactly displayed the value we've previously ascribed him during this preseason, has he? The book on him has seemingly been that he can play replacement-level ball at LT, but is not so serviceable at RT. And then he pooped the bed all together against Chicago. And might have been disappointing in one of the other games as well? I don't love him as the swing tackle tbh. Hopefully Grable gets well sooner rather than later. Anderson is probably only an IOL now except for injury constituencies or 6OL alignments. Lundt I don't think looked super ready to dress on gamedays at all. Suddenly our vaunted (even by me, repeatedly) O-line depth doesn't look quite so deep. Maybe overreacting to Anderson and Van Demark looking less compelling in our limited glimpses this summer, and Grable getting banged up.

#1 is what I've suspected kept Dolac's representation away from signing with the Bills (assuming the Bills had any real interest in the player) -- total multi-year log jam at WLB with Milano and Williams #2 is what I don't fully agree with, in that a local tryout signing (in Andreesen) grew enough over one year in an NFL system/program to catch up to a far superior/higher ceiling (physically and for sure college production) priority UDFA prospect. It's not impossible at all in a league where early draft picks flame out and UDFAs comprise 1/3 of the player pool. But wouldn't Dolac be a better prospect than Andreesen? Or is he too much of a WLB guy (which harkens back to #1). He's not any smaller than Bernard was, right? I have this nagging fear about McBEANE's roster management approach: that each year they think of/select primary backups (at most positions) in terms of floor 100%. In terms of "trust" and "confidence" in this moment, rather than true, iron-sharpens-iron competition at all positions, like they sometimes claim. Wouldn't a Dolac represent more talent in the pipeline than an Andreesen? I'm afraid the Sabres have been demonstrably guilty of that tendency to not actively threaten the progression of their young pipeline talent with better players. Are they haunted by the ghost of Wyatt Teller? Is that last paragraph at all cogent?

Is Dolac not actually a much better prospect than Andreesen? (from the Bills perspective) I've been assuming it's more about Bernard in front of him being a young core guy signed long term. (from the player's/agent's perspective)

Probably need to get over my little developmental crush on Solomon. Exactly the kind of sleeper prospect I like to follow. Some traits and serious college production, but also some limitations. If only the Bills developed d-linemen the way they develop the 2nd and 3rd levels of defense.

He's right to call them out for being cheap relative to other franchises. Ownership there is brutal and completely undeserving of success in the league. Very similar to how things operated in Buffalo for a decade or two, unfortunately. He's wrong if he was complaining about how HE was being treated, specifically, being personally worth approximately $20 Million (US Dollars).

ZERO guys on IR or PUP to start the season? No way. Gotta use those tools to punt on a few decisions: SVPG and Hairston and White and who knows who else could easily NOT count towards the 53 at first. Opens up spots for Carter and/or Shavers and/or a cutdown day addition at S and/or CB, one can hope.

There would come a point in the season when every team's entire 53 is listed in some capacity, minus maybe a K or P or LS. But I suspect even those guys work through soft tissue stuff and definitely multiple contusions that would put many of us on short-term IR from our daily lives. We'd be like, "Remember that time my ribs turned blue and purple and black (then yellow and green) for like an entire winter? I couldn't sneeze, without throwing up from the pain, for months. My wife and I couldn't be intimate that fiscal quarter and now I'm sleeping in my car." Etc. Etc.

Regular season Ravens have put some whoopins on McD's Bills. Just sayin. I don't necessarily think that's what will happen, but I did say the smart money is on that (mostly because the spread/odds will make the returns favorable). You don't see any potential for the Bills to field an exploitable pass defense while also being a little flat offensively? McD's teams have had mixed results against Henry in the regular season, and Baltimore's defense has jumped all over us. I know the postseason matchups have gone differently. But getting pushed around or disrupted by an aggressive AFC Central squad is something we've seen a bit over the years, given how few teams generally have gotten the upper hand on McD's Bills. It's not preposterous.

$93 well spent

With respect to the bolded (Baltimore), I think that's a really interesting test for week one. Their aggressive, physical defense has generally given the Bills fits over the years. If there is one overarching criticism of Bills pass catchers during this era, it's their inability to beat press-man and to reel-in contested catches. Haven't disruptive, downhill defenses that dare the Bills to beat them had more success against Allen and Co.? Especially in the playoffs? I'm REALLY fascinated by the Baltimore week one litmus test. Smart money says Bills get rolled, in my opinion. All kinds of weaknesses exposed, again. All our worst fears and suspicions realized in the first game, in prime time, nationwide. Like you, I do actually see a potential future in which Coleman, Palmer, and Shakir and Kincaid are a formidable unit, but should we really expect them to win against Baltimore's defense? Also, will Brady and Co. give their players enough little schematic advantages to get that production flywheel spinning?

We look backwards at what HAS happened already, analyzing, ideally, the quantitative results and trends and patterns, and then we use all that (hopefully) to form (or often solely to justify) our qualitative/subjective assessments and comparisons and rankings and such. The thing many sports fans (and moreover, many people in general) get wrong, is that old legal and financial services TV commercial disclaimer: "Past performance does not guarantee future results." Thus, oftentimes, we erroneously qualify/judge/label some players as injury prone, while others are simply unlucky. As though the physics of football and all its millions of compounding variables are somehow controllable and/or evidence of something concretely knowable and pre-determined, some fixed quality or flaw in particular players that is more influential than the sheer magnitude of math involved.

I should turn myself in, huh?

I hadn't considered that Samuel has any trade value, but if the Bills are just looking to offload an oft-injured WR and his cap and open up space on the 53 for more versatile (in terms of STs and true boundary traits), available prospect in Shavers, maybe a mid-to-late round pick and a late round swap gets it done? Shavers has done nothing but flash in his limited opportunities over the years. He has progressed. He has boundary traits we lack outside Coleman and Palmer. Moore I'm completely MEH about. Seems like a guy who could produce from time to time with Josh Allen. So maybe as a 4 or 5 he makes it, but don't 4s and 5s generally need to offer some teams ability? I guess not always.

That deserves a "Nice."

Am I the last person in the expansive sphere of NFL fans to learn that Philly is $30 million UNDER the cap? Is their entire defense on rookie deals? Because that entire offense is STACKED with $igned $tuds. (Admittedly, I have not yet done the rigorous online research of seeing an itemized accounting of how such a sham is in fact possible. I'm still in shock.)

Bills defensive profile be like

This is what we hope will happen, for sure. One reason to have at least some hope is that the Bills under McDermott have been able to really develop a number of less-than-blue-chip defensive players, at the 2nd and 3rd levels, especially. Milano, Bernard, Johnson, Benford, Hyde, and Poyer are the best examples of this. Not a blue-chipper amongst them. But they all grew tremendously to become difference makers.

Love the bolded, as it defines McD's tenure to date. The problem with what many of us want the Bills to do more of, as you detail above, relies on a different mindset/philosophy of play-calling all together. It's a more high-risk, high-reward style of diverse/matchup/play-to-play poker play-calling where the DC is competing against the opposing OC (whoever calls plays) as much or more than he's running a "scheme" or "system" that only really works with high end talent who know "the system" with total fluency. I'm recalling what it looks like when Sean McDermott calls out-of-character, yet predictable, late game cover-zero blitzes that lost us two games in the same season (2023, right?). He's not always great at predicting what opponents want to do in general and what they will do play-to-play imho. Hopefully Babich shows growth in this particular skill. The bend part is more talent-based imho. The Bills cover guys, outside of Benford, and Johnson a little, don't fare well being more aggressive early in the route. Our LBs (minus Milano and to a lesser extent Bernard) and safeties do NOT always get to their spots or read the route concepts/progressions early enough to close those drafty windows. Which means there are reliable gimmes for the taking if they stick to a quick hitting/timing attack and continue to mix in the run with some success. That Carolina defense, on the contrary, didn't intentionally bend much, primarily because they were stacked with difference makers. Until that season when they repeatedly left their rookie corners on cover-3 islands to get fairly abused. The "scheme" didn't really adjust to the talent, or I guess the talent was not good enough to continually run that scheme.