y2zipper

I think that we've already seen the high-end of what next year's Patriots could look like: the 2019 Steelers. If TL:DR, I expect the Patriots to get abysmal QB play from Hoyer and Stidham and I expect their high turnover rate on defense to regress. For all the talk of the Patriots' weapons, lack thereof, etc..., the totality of their offensive production last year was average to below average. They were 15th in total yards, 21st in yards per play, and 26th in rushing yards per attempt. The only part of their offense that was above average was Tom Brady, who produced a lot of yards. (NOTE: this was mostly on volume. Brady was 4th in the league in attempts and produced a below-average passer rating) The interception rate for Brady was also very low, as always (top ten at not throwing picks). I don't particularly see Stidham or Hoyer matching Brady's production while maintaining that low of an interception rate, and the Patriots simply don't have the rushing attack to make up the deficit in production. For example, if Hoyer/Stidham have an NFL average interception rate, that's double Brady's. For reference, last year's Pittsburgh team was 29th in yards per rushing attempt and only managed to beat Jameis Winston and Baker Mayfield in interception rate (3rd lowest). Pittsburgh and New England managed to win by having an exceptionally high and unsustainable turnover rates. The average team got turnovers 12% of the time. Pittsburgh got 19% and New England got 17% for turnover rates, and I expect both of these teams to regress some because turnover rates always change and high turnover reliant defenses are historically not sustainable. It adds up to the Patriots being a .500 team if they sustain a huge turnover rate and a 5-6 win team if they can't, unless Stidham is way better than people think.

I strongly agree here. I don't know how they let Prescott get away.

Aaron Rodgers at 36 isn't Aaron Rodgers at 26. He has a propensity to get hurt more and while he still has a lot of ability, running the complete spread system and letting him sling the rock around doesn't work for 36 year-old Rodgers like it did when Rodgers was 26. It's perfectly normal for Rodgers not to be able to see this. Green Bay saw this and hired LaFleur to help Rodgers by improving the defense and improving the rushing attack, which are exactly the right ways to extend the career of a good QB who is aging. It helped them to the tune of 7 more wins and a conference title appearance with virtually no change in Rodgers' performance as a passer. Their offensive line and defense are good, and I'd expect Green Bay to continue to be one of the best teams in the conference as long as Rodgers doesn't decline. Yes, they could use a receiver, but reports of their demise are exaggerated here. Green Bay took Love because that's where they felt the value proposition was with their pick. The top 6 Wide Receivers were off the board, the run on Offensive linemen and defensive backs was already done, and this wasn't a great class for Tight Ends or Defensive Linemen. Green Bay also has the organizational stability to take a long-term view on the draft sometimes, which is why they've been able to contend consistently for such a long time. Given the choice between reaching for a 2nd round receiver and taking a shot at a first round QB prospect, I get why they'd take Love in that spot. All that said, I really don't understand Green Bay taking a RB in the second round.

ESPN's pass block win rate metric for teams is a very good metric for pass protection that uses proximity of players and isolates pass blocking. They consider it a win when the pass blocking holds for 2.5 seconds or more.

Wins -- Over 9.5 (I think 10) Allen Total TDs (Over 30) Diggs -- over 1,000 Yards (Brown did this last year.) Singletary -- Over 1,000 yards from scrimmage -- (800 Rushing and 200 receiving with a little more volume) Oliver Sacks -- Under 6.5 (But 6 is a good number) Offense will be a little worse than 14.5 in points scored (Like 15 or 16, though.) Defense -- I'd bet Buffalo is top 3 in PA. I'll take over on divisional wins because there's 5 there.

I'm probably going to be lower than most of the posts that I see here on Tennessee simply because I think Tannehill's short sample was so far outside his career numbers that they'll crash this season. Tier 1 (team I expect to get the bye): Kansas City Tier 2 (teams I expect to make the postseason): Baltimore, Buffalo, Houston, Indianapolis Tier 3 (Teams I expect to compete for the last 2 spots): Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Tennessee, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Tier 4 (Teams that won't make the postseason) Miami, New England, Denver, Cincinnati, Jacksonville, New York Jets (there are different levels of team here).

Roberts is a KR/PR and is worth a roster spot for that role alone. Ideally he won't play WR at any point but I'd keep 5 or 6 guys on the roster in front of him. I'd expect it to be... Diggs Brown Beasley And then you'll see Foster, McKenzie, the 2 guys they drafted competing for spots. I don't expect Easley or McCloud to make the roster.

I think the Bills offensive line is pretty good, even without elite talent from an individual standpoint. Offensive line is about unit play and depth more than about individual talent and continuity helps here. My favorite thing about the way they build it is that they constant bring in as many guys with starting experience as they can. Dawkins Spain Morse Feliciano Ford Nsekhe Williams puts the team 7 deep at players who can start and Buffalo also has Long and Bates too.

I expect to see a lot of 3WR 1TE sets, and in that sense Buffalo is probably set now with a good prospect in Knox, Kroft, Sweeney and Croom.

I want Dobbins if he falls.

These variables don't exist with Diggs specifically because he's young and under team control long-term. Plus, the top WRs will be gone by 22.

I think this is the right pick for Miami also.

I'll say this: the pick itself was defensible given that Buffalo needed to fill the position in 2013 and they managed to trade down and get the best QB in the class. The issue was that EJ is probably the worst QB I've ever seen outside of Peterman once he got on the field and Buffalo probably stuck with him too long and even traded up for Watkins the next season. Sometimes you don't need to see much out of a player to realize you made a mistake.

The strategy I would use this year is trading out of this seasons draft entirely if I could.

Watson can be No they can franchise after the 5th year option. The new CBA benefit is that the 5th year option pays the same as the franchise tag and year 6 is the franchise tag plus 20%. So Watson realistically becomes a free agent in 4 seasons unless he signs a long-term extension before then. Plus, if Houston's progression continues without Hopkins there people will get over it. A lot happens in 4 years.

The comp pick they get when he walks in Free Agency is a 3rd so the asking price is at least that plus a contract.

I think that's where they took inspiration.

Hahaha

Yeah the attendance in LA doesn't look good here. They also lowered the ticket prices in LA yesterday.

I like the transparency of the review but eventually that will be a commercial break instead. Jones looks like the best athlete on the field in this game so far and McGloin doesn't look very good to me here.

I definitely think the communication rules for the coaches wear the headset never turns off is a great way to help the quarterback play. But the broadcasting here is definitely very good and this was a good watch today. I'll time in tomorrow also.

I don't see more investment in defensive line with the bills defense than I do in any other unit really. but I also think that a lot of us are victims of watching the bills defense a little bit too closely and we don't understand how good it actually is because we're looking for the 2018 bears the 2017 jaguars or the 2019 Steelers.

Passing efficiency is still the number one indicator of how good teams are. what you see in the title games is that other factors come into play because the teams that can't pass efficiently are sitting on the couch. the NFL is still a passing league in the sense that you have to get the ball down the field efficiently using the passing game if you want a chance to be pretty good. it doesn't mean that you have to throw the ball 57 times a game. The season every team in the top 7 and passing efficiency made the postseason and the only two teams outside of the top 12 that made it in we're Philadelphia who was 13th and buffalo.

I think player to coach ratio is a faulty way to look at it. Coaches aren't direct player management in the sense that teams just take somebody who's a player and make them a coach like how other professions work sometimes. Also, about two-thirds of the coaches haven't played in NFL down (18 as of last January) and the coaching ranks tend to be more for people who don't make it as players. https://www.google.com/amp/s/theundefeated.com/features/which-top-minority-coaching-candidates-would-be-good-fits-for-nfl-job-openings/amp/ There's a little relevant reading on minority candidates according to the undefeated. For those looking for names, George Edwards Jim Caldwell Leslie Frazier Eric Bieniemy Ron Rivera Looking at the hiring patterns this year and teams not waiting for playoff eliminations, Beiniemy, Edwards and a few of the mentions from SF in the article aren't going to get looks from anyone except Cleveland because their teams are still playing. The minority guys I'd consider as an armchair GM are probably Rivera, Marvin Lewis and Caldwell. Rivera got a job and Marvin Lewis got consideration from Dallas, a team that decide to go with an experienced coach. I also think the head coach candidate market in general wasn't very good this offseason which is why you saw teams like Jacksonville and Detroit basically decide to keep their guys for another year.

Allen is definitely better as a prospect than EJ or Losman were, but I agree that in a year we are definitely going to know what we have at the position and that it's sufficient time to bring in competition if we don't see league average passing efficiency or better. We play in an era where players that make bad decisions or have a gunslinger mentality don't succeed because passing efficiency is king. To make it clear, Josh should be the starter next year and I will think he will get there, but NFL development has a shelf life because that's how rookie scale contracts work. I think the key to developing Allen as a passer is to find something he can do consistently as a passer and do it a lot. I don't know what that is yet. Just looking statistically, Josh has 9 games below the eating average and 8 games above it in 17 starts this year and the offense varies wildly like his play does.