Shaw66

It would be ironic indeed for the Bills to have traded out of 10 in 2017 so that Andy Reid could take Mahomes and then trade UP to 5 in 2018 to take a QB John Elway didn't want.

That's fine. I'm not trying to predict what the Giants are going to do. If the Giants aren't taking a QB at 2, then they are NOT trading out of 2, because there will a great player waiting for the Giants at #2. I think the only way the Giants trade out, at least to a place beyond 4, is if they don't want a QB AND at #1 the Browns take whomever the Giants DO want. That's the only scenario where the Giants won't want to stay at #2. I DO think the Giants are taking a QB at 2, because I think it's the right way to handle their QB situation. But that's just my take on it, and I'm completely comfortable with the fact that the Giants may be taking a different view of it. My whole point in posting was not to predict what the Giants want. My point was that I don't think the Bills can get to 2 because it's quite unlikely that the Giants are willing to leave 2, except maybe to swap with the Jets.

1. Eli hasn't done much of anything for two years and clearly seems to be declining. 2. Eli is 37 and his brother and Brady are the only QBs in the history of the game to have had any real success in the league after 37. 3. Eli has only two years left on his contract. 4. No way to know when they will have another opportunity this good to get a top QB. Sure seems like the Giants are set up perfectly to draft the next QB now, have him sit for a year and start in 2019.

I think something like this already has happened. That's what GMs are doing all day. So Beane's already talked to the Giants and found out how far down the Giants are willing to move (more about that in a second). So the Giants said "we might be interested if you could get us to 7." So then Beane calls whoever has 7 and talks to them about whether they'd be willing to move back to 12 on draft night, and what it might cost. So they maybe put together a tentative deal that they agree they'd be willing to finalize once the Giants are on the clock. Then everyone waits for Thursday night. If the guy the Giants want gets taken by the Browns, they talk to the Bills and say "if you can get 7, we'll do the deal." Bills call #7 and say "we'll do it if you'll do it." Done deal, Bills call the Giants (they're probably actually waiting on the other line), finalize, notify the league and take their QB. However, I think that only happens if (1) the Giants don't want a QB and (2) the guy they do want (Barkely, probably) gets taken by the Browns at 1. If the Giants want a QB, they're going to take their first choice at 2 or, if the Browns take him, they'll take their second choice. That was the point of my original post. If there are one or two guys the Giants want at the top of the draft, the Giants aren't trading out of 2 unless they're trading to 3 or possibly 4. So although, yes, it's possible that something could happen like you describe, I think it's very unlikely, because the Giants just aren't going to want to move that far back.

Yeah, Darnold is my third. Any one of those three, I'm okay if they make a big deal with the Broncs. But as someone said and I echoed, 3 or 4 could go in the first 4 or 5 picks.

5/6 is correct. 5 is the first spot where a deal could happen, and then only if the Broncos aren't in the QB market or don't like what's left. I like Mayfield first and Rosen second. There's some chance one falls to 5 and possibly even 6. That's why I think that if the Bills trade up, it'll be to 5, 6, 7, 8, and then only if the right guy is still on the board.

Hello? You're not listening. It isn't a question of whether the Bills have enough to offer to move up. It's a question whether the Giants will take ANYTHING to move out of the second pick. The Giants are playing Eli this year, apparently, and maybe next year. But pretty soon, they're going to need a QB, and they aren't likely to have another opportunity as good as they have this year. So the Giants are saying "screw the draft trade chart." The Giants don't want five picks starting at 12; they want one pick at 2. And if they don't a pick at 2, they want one at 3 or 4. The chances of putting together a deal with the Giants and the Browns to get the Giants to 4 are very, very slim. That's what I explained in my post. NickelCity is right. There probably are going to be a lot of broken hearts around 10 pm on Thursday. Mason Rudolph, here we come.

I agree with this too. I just can't see how the Giants can afford to pass on a QB. So three QBs go in the top 4, and as you say maybe 4 in 5. So if the Bills' favorite QB is available at 4, MAYBE they can put together a deal with the Browns to get ahead of the Broncos. All seems pretty remote to me.

That's a good point. I agree. I think the Bills have to worry that the Dolphins want a QB or someone else will trade up. Of course, there has to be a QB the Bills want.

Like lots of people here, I've been thinking about what might happen between now and Thursday night. We've seen some rumors about the Bills talking to the Giants and some rumors about there being no deal with the Giants. Well, as I think about, it seems clear that there'll be no deal with Giants because the Bills can't offer the Giants anything that works for the Giants. Either the Giants want one of the good QBs or they don't. If they want one of the good QBs, then the only trade they'll do is to move to 1, 3 or possibly 4. If they trade down below 4, the QB they want could be gone. If they want one of the stud non-QBs, they can't move to 5 because the Browns may take the best stud non-QB at 4. So it seems likely the only way the Bills could get to #2 would be if the Bills first traded to 4 and then traded up again. But getting to 4 will be expensive - probably at least the 12 and 22, and that would be only if the Browns didn't like any of the studs at the top of the draft. Then from 4 to 2 probably would cost next year's first. There's a rumor that the Bills actually offered those three firsts to the Giants and the Giants said no. The Giants said no, probably, because they know they don't want to pick below 3 or 4 at the worst, and getting those three firsts doesn't help them UNLESS THEY have a deal with the Browns for 4. So that means to me the only route there is for the Bills to get to #2 is essentially a three-team trade, where the Bills go to #2, the Giants go to #4 and get the Bills' first round pick next year, and the Browns get the Bills' #12 and #22. (Maybe a few late-round picks thrown in here and there to grease the skids.) That seems to me to be a very, very hard deal to make. Giants more or less won't do it if they want a QB, because it lets Buffalo and the Jets get in the QB line ahead of the Giants. Only can work if the Giants want one of the top-of-the-draft non-QB studs AND the Browns don't want any of them. And it's much easier for the Giants to tell the Jets they're looking to trade out of #2, and to protect themselves the Jets would need to trade up. So the Giants can easily pick up another nice pick by moving back to #3, at no cost to them so long as they don't want a QB. So the Bills are picking, at the very best, 4th. Even that seems like a stretch. The QB they want would have to be there (after the Browns, Giants and Jets have taken two or three of the QBs), and the Bills would have to be willing to give 12 and 22 to get there. Possible, not likely. Can the Bills get to 5? Only if the Broncos don't want the QB the Bills want. So it looks to me like Bills will be picking after at least 3 QBs have come off the board. If the Bills actually did offer the Giants three first round picks (12, 22 and 2019) for #2, I wonder this: Two months ago, that was 21, 22 and Cordy Glenn. Did the Bills offer THAT to the Colts for #3? THAT's the deal the Bills should have made, if it was possible. The problem always was that the Jets had a much more attractive first-round pick to offer.

That's excellent! Thanks for taking the time to put it together. Quite nice.

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Delegate

Foles has had two good seasons as a pro. That's more than catching lightning. I'm not a huge Foles fan, but if the Bills won't or can't pull the trigger on a deal to move up for the QB they want in the draft, then I've always thought the other option is to send a pick to the Eagles for Foles, or a player, and keep looking for a rookie in the next few years. In the meantime, see if Foles pans out.

It was a good move by the Jets. It cost them a lot to do it, and they had the #6. I'm sure the Bills were talking to the Colts, but the cost to the Bills would have been out of sight.

You should retire. Then you can watch this stuff all day and not feel guilty.

Rewarded! Keep looking and something happens. Foles gets a new deal. Still doesn't sound like a deal that would bar a trade, so the Foles option is still out there, I think.

Depends on whether the Bills' favorite QB is still on the board and if the Bills love him like the Colts loved luck. Personally, I think if the Bills move up, it will be to 4 through 10, not 2. Nope. Keep checking.

I think the Bills' next move is during the draft. That means as soon as the Browns' first pick goes up, the fun starts. Do the Giants stick, or do the Bills pick?

We know the Yankees are human and the Red Sox are from another planet. Didn't know THAT three months ago.

Unless they trade up and take a punter. THAT will surprise us. All other bases have been covered in previous threads.

I'll say. Nothing like two picks in the first round and a half dozen good quarterbacks to get people interested.

Goodness, gracious, all this draft talk has lured a lurker out from the weeds to join the fray. Welcome!

Oh, man, don't say it. Someone tell Beane not to draft The Black Panther.

The draft is like Christmas every year. Shiny new toy under the tree, all that. But this year, it's like there's a four-car garage under the tree and I'm hoping for a Jag, a Porsche, a Maserati and a Lexus for everyday driving with a big red bow on top.