Shaw66

I don't think so. Since the Bills will be implementing a new offensive scheme, Peterman just isn't that far ahead of Allen in terms of his development. He has a bit of an edge, but not much. Allen's superior physical skills will pretty quickly put him ahead of Peterman. I think it's a two-man competition. McCarron's experience and demonstrated ability to win at any level against Allen's physical ability. I think Allen takes the starting job from McCarron later in 2018 or training camp 2019.

It's the magnitude of the change that has me feeling good, not the moves. I, for one, wanted the Bills to keep Dareus and have McDermott make into a real man. I cared less about Darby. But I mention them because the point isn't the individual moves. Like all coaches and GMs, McBeane are going to get some correct and miss on some others. I think they figured they just weren't prepared to invest the energy in Dareus, and I think they coveted the pick so much that they were willing to let Darby. They could afford to release him when they discovered White is the real deal. Teams can't afford to keep two star corners, so they knew already that they were going to lose Darby in free agency and keep White. I've gotten high on Allen. He has a winning attitude, which is why the Bills wanted him. I'm guessing you'll be really happy about the pick in less than 24 months.

The Rockpile Review – by Shaw66 Credit Where Credit Is Due Late May is a good time in the NFL off-season to take a minute and reflect on the importance of management. This year, 2018, particularly. Can we all just stand and put our hands together for Terry and Kim Pegula, for Brandon Beane and Sean McDermott? I mean, what these four have done over the past year and a half makes them candidates for owner of the year, GM of the year and coach of the year. Seriously. Before recalling how the Bills have gotten where they are, let’s state the obvious: the Bills haven’t won anything, and it’s quite possible they won’t win this time. Making the playoffs after all those previous regimes had failed was nice, but making the playoffs was only a short-term goal. The Bills probably aren’t close to winning a lot for at least a couple of years (although nothing McDermott does will surprise me) and, again, they might not get there at all under this leadership. I get that, and I have doubts aplenty. I’m not anointing anyone, not yet. But. Look back to the beginning of 2017. The Bills had just missed the playoffs, again. Their head coach quit before being fired. He was the second head coach in a row to quit. Think about that: one of the most coveted jobs on the planet, NFL head coach, and not one but two head coaches had quit in the previous three years. The Bills were holding one embarrassing press conference after another, caused in part by the ineptitude of management and in part by a mad-dog local press corps that nipped at the heels of any representative of the team who dared speak a word. They had a quarterback who, it seemed, the team needed but didn’t want, or wanted but didn’t need, depending on your point of view. Once again, they would be in an off-season contract renegotiation. One of the most commonly used words in columns about the Buffalo Bills was “dumpster fire.” Given recent history, whether you call “recent” one year or three years or five years or ten, there was little reason for optimism. That’s when the owners took charge. Everyone knows the Pegulas are successful people, as in really, really successful. Success like they’ve had doesn’t happen by accident. That kind of success is the result of a lot of hard work and some luck, to be sure, but most importantly, it is the result of making good decisions. The Pegulas never would have been in a position to buy the Sabres and the Bills if they hadn’t made a lot of good decisions. The Pegulas had made a remarkably bad decision hiring Rex Ryan. They were determined not to repeat that history. They changed the process, they changed the criteria and they probably changed the people who were key participants in the process. A lot changed in the first few months of 2017, a lot behind the scenes. It changed because the Pegulas demanded change and, no doubt, were instrumental in implementing it. Outwardly, the change was apparent the day Sean McDermott was hired as head coach. This man couldn’t have been more different from Rex Ryan: on his way up instead of on his way out, buttoned down and buttoned up instead of just sayin’ whatever, disciplined instead of, well, instead of behaving like a 13-year old. Who knew, who knows, whether McDermott was, is, destined to be a great head coach? What we knew, immediately, was that the man would die trying. That was refreshing. If there was any doubt that things had changed within the organization, it ended with the dismissal of Doug Whaley. The message was clear: whatever the Buffalo Bills were going to be, they weren’t going to be the old Bills. Then, Brandon Beane came aboard, and everything came into focus. It wasn’t just the head coach; this entire organization was going to be buttoned down and buttoned up. The Bills were going to be professional and business-like from top to bottom. The Pegulas were successful before and they completely intend to be successful again, doing it the way they know how. The off-field evidence of the new Bills at work is their relationship with the press, particularly the Buffalo News. By 2017, open warfare had broken out between the Bills and some members of the News sports staff. Rex Ryan was cowed by them, often introducing thoughts in his press conferences with phrase like “I know you guys won’t like this, but ….” Pieces in the News openly demeaned the abilities and intelligence of front office personnel. Writers asked leading questions, trying to catch people in contradictions, and when they did, they wrote about it repeatedly, claiming that the Bills front office was lying. For the News, it seemed like they were exposing their own little Watergate. The Bills began limiting access of writers to players and management for interviews. The Pegulas know it’s bad business to have a bad relationship with the local press. As first McDermott and then Beane came on board, there was a true honeymoon with the press. Only four months earlier, the press had second-guessed every move the Bills made – no, they didn’t second guess the moves, they trashed them mercilessly within hours of the decision becoming public. Now, McDermott and Beane were getting nothing but softballs in their press conferences, and several positive articles appeared about them. When Beane decided to give details of the run up to the draft, he gave the co-exclusive to Chris Brown within the organization and to a News writer. In his press conferences, McDermott calls News writers by the first name and often responds with comments like “that’s a good question, Vic.” Is this an accident? I don’t think so. I would wager a large sum that the Pegulas had a heart-to-heart with senior management at the News, a conversation about how it was important for the Bills, for Buffalo and for the News to return to a more level-headed relationship. In turn, the Bills would be sure the News got quality access. Unspoken, I’m sure, but lost on no one was the simple fact that the Buffalo News may be, I say MAY be, more powerful than the Buffalo Bills, but the News is definitely not more powerful than the NFL, whose presence was felt in every conversation. How ever they got there, the Bills and the News are in a better place. The Pegulas no doubt decreed that it would be so, and they worked to accomplish it. We’ve seen calm, deliberate, methodical progress rebuilding the team: Purposeful and incisive moves in free agency to rebuild the defense. The Taylor and Glenn trades, cleaning out quality players from the old regime that didn’t quite work and adding to draft capital. The bold moves in the draft to acquire the keystone players for the future offense and future defense. All this, and no hysteria. What’s the last piece of news that Bills fans in general would describe as a disaster? Not drafting Allen; although certainly some people believe it was a mistake, no one’s calling it a disaster. Not the Taylor trade, or the Glenn trade. The last disaster was the decision to start Peterman, and McDermott recovered miraculously from that. Other than Peterman, the last disaster was pre-McDermott. Things have changed, and Mr. and Mrs. Pegula deserve the credit, right along with their GM and Head Coach. GO BILLS!!! The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.

Murphy and Fitzy were great. Now I have to go find the video of other presenters. This gives you a look at the lives of these guys from the inside. What they're thinking and saying to each other. Fitz was painfully pointed about Whaley. It was only funny because it was so outrageous that if was startling that he would say it. And the costume changes were fabulous. Fitzy is one cool guy.

What does EP have to do with roster decisions? My understanding is that all NFL teams run more or less the same plays, regardless of nomenclature. They run the same routes. Receivers have same opportunity to get open or not. What does EP have to do with it? I've said this before: If EP were so obviously better, why doesn't every team use it? Until someone has explained it better, I don't see what the big deal is.

Great! Bring back Brandon so the bills can play in Syracuse!

No, the offense won't be designed to suit what Allen does best. It will be designed to defeat NFL defenses, and whether Allen makes it or not will depend on his ability to execute the offense as designed. The offensive will be designed to take advantage of deep throws when the defense is deployed in a way that make deep throws possible. Same as always.

Waiting for his further analysis. EP is just a naming system. It does afford the opportunity to run the offense faster, but that alone doesn't make an offense successful. What matters is scheming against the defense and execution. That's where Belichick's offense excels. I'm interested in how Daboll will do in those categories. This is the important point, not talent on the roster. Can he design an effective offense and can be adjust it week to week to take advantage of the defense he's facing?

I don't hink we're talking about separating the greats. We're talking about the busts. A guy with bad mechanics has a very high probability of busting.

I share your viewpoint to a point, but not all the way. I"m one of the first to decry all these online "experts" who are analyzing this and that. Very few of them were players, fewer still were coaches and none either played or coached in the NFL for a serious career. A lot of these arguments about accuracy, throwing guys open, throwing over the middle are being written by seriously under-informed people. I agree. However, some people are better at what they do than others. I, for one, find the Cover1 analysis generally pretty good. Not perfect, and I'm skeptical because it isn't a guy with 15 hears experence coaching offense in the NFL, but I find when I read what he says and look at the video he presents, his judgments about what's going on are pretty good. And I think you're wrong about footwork, or mechanics more generally, and accuracy. Yes, guys have different styles, arm angles, etc. However, there are some fundamental things about mechanics that you find with all successful quarterbacks, like how the upper body opens up on the throw. So you can start with that. And some QBs succeed despite themselves - no coach is going to teach his 10th grade QB to throw like Rivers does. That motion ust isn't very effective for throwing the ball; Rivers makes it work because of outstanding athletic ability, but you aren't going to teach your kid to do that. Favre, too. But if you watch Rodgers on the run, even though he throws from all different positions and arm angles, the fundamentals of throwing motion are always there, and always pure. Finally, if you don't want to talk about this stuff, fine, don't. But there is SOME merit to it and SOME people do want to talk about it. If the conversation has to stop because none of us is a true expert, because none of us really knows what we're talking about, well, then the entire forum has to be shut down. I mean, all I could post is "I like Allen." If I write "I like Allen because ...," then everything that follows should be deleted because I'm not an expert.

For an amateur operation, Cover1 is really nicely done. I'm never sure he's completely correct on this stuff, but his analysis is always sound. Here's my take: 1. You can't throw the ball with the velocity and, often, the accuracy that Allen does without having fundamentally good mechanics. All his measurables in the throwing area are excellen - release time, velocity, etc. The guy has fundamentally good mechanics. So the mechanical problems are not problems with his THROWING, which is what you find with plenty of guys who have mechanical problems. 2. Allen's problems shown in this article and videos are that his footwork in advance of his throw is sometimes flawed, which leaves him in the wrong position when it's time to throw. Then he delays the throw and misses the window or he hurries the throw and his mechanics then suffer, affecting his accuracy. I think the difference between those two points is critical. I agree with those who say changing mechanics in an athlete at this level is very difficult. You can try to remake the throwing motion, but when the pressure is on in game situations, most athletes revert to the muscle memory they've developed over several years. What they practice on Wednesday goes out the window on Sunday. That's why most QBs with mechanical issues in their throwing motion, guys in category 1, never overcome the problem. Allen's not in category 1. He has a great throwing motion. Allen's in category 2. Essentially, the problem Cover1 describes is that Allen hasn't learned the steps to the dance. Sometimes he's doing the cha-cha when he's supposed to be waltzing. That's a different problem, and an easier problem to correct than being in category 1. Any athlete can learn the dance steps. In fact, teams spend a lot of time teaching that. On most NFL passing plays, the ball is released quickly, and QBs are taught to take precise steps preliminary to the pass. THey're taught which foot takes the first step, how far, etc. Step, step, step, pass. It's all choreographed. Allen can learn that. Where Cover1's analysis is more relevant is when Allen is forced to move or scramble. That's not most plays, but it's enough to make a difference. Then, Allen's ability to set a good base with his feet, not spread too much, feet moving, etc., becomes more important. Those things can be taught, but like the throwing motion, the question is whether the teaching will hold when he's under pressure. For that, we'll just have to wait and see.

I like the glasses.

Nice job. Good length. Reasonable stuff to say. Great video. You might think a little more about what to say about the video, and replay some of the video as you explain your points. The plays were going by faster than you could say something meaningful. I like that your level-headed about this. I like that you have solid basic knowledge plus you've dug and found some information not everyone might now. I like how you show a lot of video from one game. It doesn't fell cherry-picked. I like your tone. You're good on camera, because, I suppose, you're a seasoned performer. Keep it up. It's worth watching. As for Allen, I always do this (get more excited from week to week about any big move the Bills make), but I'm really liking the Allen decision. Picking a QB is a crapshoot, but .... I watch your video and see one magnificent thrower. As good a thrower as you'll ever see - accuracy, touch, arm strength. He's the entire package. At least on the video you show, I also agree with about accuracy. There is no accuracy problem on display in those replays, and I'm guessing you're showing just about every throw he made. Plus, he's smart, he's a hard-worker and he's an intense competitor. I kept watching the video and wondering what the Browns, Jets and Broncos were thinking. I think everyone is going to talking about Josh Allen, if not this season or next season, certainly by 2020. Thanks for the work.

Good list with good reasons.

Man, Shady wishes he could do what OJ could day. That said, as I've said in this thread, Shady is underrated around the country. If he gains 2000 yards more in his career (barring injury, he should make it no problem), he's 16th on the all-time list, right there with Thurman. He's 27th on the yards per attempt list, right there with OJ. 15 more rushing touchdowns in his career (also quite likely), he's 18th all-time, right there with Marshawn. The guy is special. And, once again, not many teams have had running backs like Buffalo. OJ, Thurm, Lynch, Shady, Cribbs and Cookie. And Freddie. Wow.

Right. That plus his injury are why he wasn't drafted. But he looks like a hard worker, knows his assignments and executes. That's the kind of guy McDermott likes. They'll work on his technique.

Thanks for posting this. I wasn't in Buffalo in those days and never saw Hooks play. Some fantastic running in this video.

Watch the video. He looks pretty good. Gets pushed back into the QB too much - doesn't look strong enough to hold his ground. But watch how he's mastered his assignments. He's good at handing off a pass rusher to the guard and picking it up the outside rush. Also gets to the second level nicely in the run game. Kind of guy who will do his job.

I really don't recall what he did in pass protection. Probably not much. Making guys miss? OJ was one of the best all-time. Maybe top five. Good as OJ was, I might give Shady the edge. Shady is the only guy I've seen who approaches what Sanders could do. Pass receiving? Outstanding. Great hands. Incredible after the catch. Plenty of Bills fans say Thurman was a better receiver, but I don't think so. The Bills ran a different offense and threw more to Thurman, but Simpson's averages were better. Simpson had more yards per catch and more touchdowns per catch. OJ was a top 5 all-time running back. Shady is underrated, but I doubt anyone who saw them both play would take Shady over OJ.

No, it isn't arguable. I love McCoy, but Simpson was head and shoulders above him. As someone said, the Bills have had good running backs. Maybe the best collection running backs of any team in the league. Bears has Peyton and Sayers and Forte. Cowboys. Browns. Simpson, Thomas, McCoy, Gilchrist, Cribbs, Lynch. Name a team where Fred Jackson would be the SEVENTH best back in franchise history.

OJ was the best. Thurm is my favotite. Freddy is second.

You make a good point about someone's coaching history. He's unproven, for sure, but having a guy who's lived with Belichick for multiple seasons and then Saban, he's been prepped about as well as he could be. I think McDermott is all about teaching, letting people grow and giving them responsibility for what they do. I think that Daboll now has a great opportunity. McD will tell him what McD wants, but he's going to ask Daboll to figure out how to deliver it. That is, McD is asking Daboll to create an offense that will work with the talent they have and will work as the talent upgrades. If Daboll has learned from Billy Boy and Saban, he should be up to the task.

DP - Thanks for the great post. I, too, think people will be surprised by the quality of the offense. I think you way overstate the significance of the change to EP. If it were that obvious that EP is superior in all respects, EVERY team in the league would run it. I mean, if the only reason the Pats offense is good and diverse is because of EP, every team would be doing it. There's a lot more to it than that. And, from the the things I read when Daboll signed on, EP really is a nomenclature system. The articles all said pretty much all the teams run all the same plays; it's just that the play call is different. Having said that, I don't understand WHY all teams don't run it. It certainly is a good explanation as to why the Pats can get in and out of the huddle and snap it quickly. I like the idea that with just a few words, a whole route tree can be called and can be adjusted by formation. It just makes a lot of sense to me. Thanks for the recap of the system. I'm not sure your conclusion about passing to the backs is correct. As I understand EP, the backs can be just as active in the passing game - it just depends on the formation. If the second man from the outside is a back in a certain formation, then he runs a particular route. If he's the third man from the outside, he runs a different route. Again, EP doesn't so much dictate that the pass plays are different; it's that the play call is simpler (for the QB). It isn't simpler for the receiver, because he has know the entire route tree and figure out which route is his, based on the formation - essentially, in EP the QB can know where he's going find A receiver without necessarily knowing which receiver it's going to be. SOME receiver is in the flat, SOME receiver is running the post, SOME receiver will be sitting in the short middle. It's easy to see how it makes life simpler for the QB. My view is that what's going to make the offense better is (1) better NFL-style quarterbacking from McCarron (or Allen if he somehow wins the job). By that I mean, better decision making pre- and post-snap. The EP scheme may help McCarron (just as it probably would have helped Taylor). (2) Receivers better suited to the style of play. We don't know exactly who the receivers will be, except that we should expect Benjamin and Jones to be the primary receivers. The emphasis is going to be on precise route running and recognition of the defenses. I'm a big believer that people tend to way overvalue receivers. When you think about it, how many receivers can you name who consistently beat their defender and get wide open? Not very many; most of the time when a receiver is open, it's because he ran his route well and the pattern or scheme created the opportunity. The receiver just takes advantage of the opportunity. That's why the Pats can get a lot of mileage out of a Hogan, for example. (3) Solid but not dominant offensive line play. I think the style of play that McD wants for the Bills is, as you say, plug-and-play. It's a style where each player has a precise job to do on each play, and the job can be accomplished by any NFL-calibre player (in terms of athleticism and experience). So, for example, I get the sense that McD is perfectly comfortable that Dawkins can be the left tackle, that Mills can be the right tackle, that Groy can be one of the interior guys and Ducasse can be another. I know those aren't popular names across the line, but the fans' opinion isn't what matters. I think McD is confident that he can get effective play from those guys and that all he needs is one more. Maybe a rookie. Maybe a free agent they haven't signed yet. It isn't going to be a juggernaut offense, but I think it's going to surprise people. One final thought: Ivory is a pro's pro. He's going to be a significant contributor on this team.

My mental image of McCarron is one of a well-coached, dedicated all around athlete who achieves very well if he's in the right college environment. The right environment is where there's good talent on the team and good coaching, where the QB is expected to execute the plays but not be a playmaker. Frankly, that's what I think Dalton looks like. In that sense, he's good for McDermott, for whom ideal player is one who does his job as well as he can every play. I think Dalton will be solid starter for the Bills, until Allen takes over. When will Allen take over? When he can execute the offense nearly as well as McCarron can. Why will he take over? Because the quality of his arm and his physical talents generally will allow Allen to be a playmaker as well as a field general. So when Allen's field generalship approaches McCarron's, in 2018 or 2019, Allen's athletic superiority will be enough to get him on the field.