Shaw66

Outstanding. Really insightful. What McD wants from Allen is for him to keep getting better, week after week. If he's doing that, it could take him 3 or 4 years to become a good QB. McD will have that patience. Many fans won't.

I don't have a great recollection, but I think the reaction to Allen has been more vocally negative than to either of the other two. There were people who didn't like the Manuel pick, for sure, but Manuel was generally rated as the first or second best prospect in the draft, with Geno Smith. Then the Bills traded back in the draft before taking him. So the reaction of many people was, "good, you got the best QB in the draft and you got an extra pick out of the deal." JP, many people didn't like him, but he WAS the fifth rated QB in the draft and it was widely expected that he'd go in the bottom of the first or top of the second. I appreciated Donohoe's aggressiveness in going and getting him. People like this one less because in terms of draft capital, Allen was much more expensive. And, I think, people have bought all of the loud and repeated complaints about his accuracy and decision making. I don't remember the complaining about Manuel being that bad, but in part that was because the Bills didn't spend nearly as much in draft capital, and got change back. In other words, based on draft capital, the Bills risked more on him than on the others. I think that magnifies his potential shortcomings. I'm expecting Allen to be the best QB of the lot five years from now. I just have enormous confidence in McBeane. I think they really know what they're doing, and I think they know exactly what they're going to do with Allen.

This And this.

So you're saying Josh Allen will be the Michael Jordan of the NFL? Should I start on my Three-Peat Rockpile Review?

Thanks.

To your first point, I'd say it was just coincidence. Several teams were telling Allen they loved him; for some reason he just felt it would be Buffalo. Your second point is very interesting. Given Andy Reid's view of Mahomes, and how he's played in limited action, it certainly seems odd that they passed on Mahomes. There are explanations, like McD wanted the new GM to make the pick, not Whaley, but it also could be that McD saw Allen coming and wanted him. Plus, McD could see that Darnold and Rosen and Mayfield were coming, so in general it looked like a good year. Some teams DO fall in love with players early and continue to like them. If you're right, that's the kind of story that won't get told now; it'll get told after Allen wins a Super Bowl or two, and McDermott is reminiscing about the first time he saw Allen and how that day he made up his mind. Donahoe's similar story about Losman never gets told!

That's interesting. I think they have two models: The athletic freak they can get in round 1 and maybe round 2, and the smart, dedicated over-achiever they can get in the later rounds. That is, I think they value athleticism at the top of the draft and character every place else. Obviously, talent and character are issues throughout, but I think in later rounds the guy with character beats out similar guy with better measureables.

I don't know about Phillips - I don't study these guys. But from the little I've read, I think you're right. I'm finding myself having more and more confidence in McDermott and Beane. McDermott has a very highly defined sense of what he's doing. He knows what he can teach, and what he can't. He's kind of the opposite of Rex - Rex seemed to sit back and say "if you get me the right talent, I can win." Then he'd whine that he didn't have the right talent, the best players. Sean isn't looking necessarily for the best talent, although he loves it when he gets it. He's looking for guys who will work hard every day, commit to the team, and do what they're told. He's looking for over-achievers. He's looking for the Chris Hogans and Jim Leonards in the football universe. That, in turn, makes life easier for Beane. Beane knows he doesn't have to get the biggest, strongest, fastest, most athletic guy at each position. Instead, he can choose from any guys who have the minimum requirements for size, strength, speed and athleticism AND who have the right work ethic/team commitment. Rounds four through seven and the undrafted rookies is where Beane can find a lot of guys who will never be stars but will do what McDermott needs. I think Phillips is one of those guys. I think he has the brains and the heart to do what McD wants, and is physical limitations, the fact that he might be a bit of a tweener, won't be so important. And I think Beane will get more of those guys today. What I'm expecting is that the fans will be surprised in October and November how well holes have been plugged with rookies and guys who've spent the last two years on practice squads, getting called up for a game or two here or there. Then next year, some of the weaker guys who plugged holes will be replaced by first and second round picks and by some free agents. 2018 is pretty clearly year one of a two-year process. This year in idle moments McD will be wishing he had someone at this position and that position; next year he'll have his guys everywhere. That's what makes this year a test of McD's coaching ability. Talent-wise, he could have a 5-11 team. If he's a good coach (and if the QB position works out at least okay), he could be sniffing the playoffs. If he can do that, the 2019 Bills will be in position to make serious noise.

He could have, but someone had to offer it. The Bills are probably the only team that had the draft capital to make it happen, and I would be amazed if the Bills didn't at least talk to the Browns about it. Here's how it likely went: Bills call Giants and ask if they'd swap #2 for#12, #22 and next year's first (that was rumored to have happened). Giants say no. Giants say if you can get us #4, we can talk. Bills call Browns. Browns say we're not moving out of #4; we like it here. Bills say how about our two firsts for you #4. (Bills are thinking they can get the Giants to take #4 and next year's first.) Browns say no, we like being at #4; if you want us to move out of #4 you have to give us more, like maybe next year's first. That means the Bills have to give the Giants one or both of this year's seconds to move back two spots. At some point, it just got too expensive to the Bills. Remember, McDermott said that their plan this week was to find a way to get a QB and get Edmunds, which meant they'd probably have to trade up twice. Beane maintained his discipline; if he'd put together some kind of three-way deal with the Browns and Giants, he wouldn't have had enough capital left to trade up Edmunds. So he decided to wait, and if the opportunity arose, to trade up to 5, 6, 7 or 8 for the QB. That would leave him enough trade bait to Edmunds. It worked as he planned. Beane may have gotten his second choice QB - if he'd gotten to #2 he might have taken Darnold, but Edmunds was his consolation prize.

it's always nice to think they got the guy they wanted all along without having to trade up further. The thing is, Rosen might have felt the same thing. And Darnold. The teams are telling all these guys they love 'em, because they want the guys to be happy if they go to that team.

Right. This is simple. The GMs know how much they want a particular guy, and they also know how much they're willing to give up to get a guy. Gettleman didn't listen to offers because (1) he knew he really wanted Barkley and (2) no really obscene offer came in. The Bills were rumored to have offered their two firsts plus a first next year, and Gettleman said. No. What would have happened if the Bills had also offered their two seconds and two thirds. At some point, Gettleman was going to listen. But the other GMs know what they're willing to offer, and none wanted to move up as badly as Gettleman wanted to stay where he was.

1. I was on the Cousins bandwagon. These videos show you what kind of guy he is. Bills just didn't have the cash to play in that game. 2. Every time I see a video like this, I'm impressed by how complicated the game is. Fans complain that this QB doesn't go deep often enough or that QB doesn't throw over the middle enough. The truth is that practically all the fans simply don't understand what's going on out there. I don't either. 3. In these videos, Allen SOUNDS like he know what he's talking about. 4. I do think, as someone else said, that this is a guy who hasn't gotten nearly as much coaching as the other first-round guys. IF he's coachable, and IF he's willing to do the work, I think we will see a lot from him. It's hard not fall in love with the throws he can make. 5. Hapless - I suppose it's possible that a coach here and there found one of the tweets, but I think they do that kind of digging on guys generally only after the kid has gotten onto their short-list of players they're interested in. Allen more likely was ignored by college coaches because he didn't make it past the first few screens they have. Maybe Allen never made it to the right showcase clinics, so coaches didn't see him. Maybe he didn't come from the part of the country where coaches expect to find talent. These coaches gets thousands videos from players, and they don't have time to study them. Frankly, they don't even have time to look at them. A couple of my kids were good athletes in high school I saw the process. The D I coaches make up their minds very quickly about kids. They go to some clinics and to some tournaments, see some kids, hear from some coaching colleagues about kids, develop a list and move on. If you're not on the list, they don't spend much time on you. You can send them video, they often don't watch. They just have to decide what to spend their time on. I saw it hiring folks at my firm. We looked at the top 25% of the local school. There always were some people in the bottom 75% who were going to become excellent in their field, but mistakes were expensive to us. The probability that a kid in the top 25% would succeed was higher than the probability of the kid in the bottom 75%. It was a losing proposition for us to try to figure out who those people in the bottom 75% were. The kid might tell us he'd make it, but every kid is telling us that. So, just like coaches, we looked at a little data and quickly eliminated a lot of people. The Michael Jordan story is interesting. I think he got cut from the JV team as a freshman. When he was, I think, a junior, some UNC assistant coach went to a game Jordan was playing in, but the coach was there to scout another kid. He saw Jordan, and when he got home he told Dean Smith that Smith ought to see Jordan, because there was something about him suggesting he could be special. Several of Jordan's advisors told him he would get buried on the bench at UNC and he should set his sights lower. Finally, coaches don't take chances. You've got maybe 20 scholarships a year (95 total, five years per kid). So you look for the guys who project as likely successes. It's easy after the fact to say that it was stupid of these coaches to have missed on Allen, but really, it was understandable. The guys who project as successes succeed more often than the guys who don't project as success. You're betting your job if you go after guys who give you some feeling in your gut, because most of those guys let you down. So Dean Smith, for example, could afford to offer a scholarship to Jordan, because Smith was so secure at UNC that he wasn't betting his job. But if you're at Texas and you pass on a five star recruit because Josh Allen looks like he might grow into something, you won't be at Texas for very long, because most of those Josh Allens fail. Point is, there are a lot of reasons why colleges fail to identify talent, and it's usually because they don't, can't, take the time to study every kid in detail.

That's an interesting analysis. It's need based, but it makes some sense. Months ago, when the draft was off in the future, I had some unspecific notion that the Bills would get a couple of offensive linemen in the first three rounds. Like you, I was a little unhappy they didn't. But your post makes me realize the value wasn't there. If the only way to get good linemen is to forgo the chance to get a top QB and a top linebacker, you have to go QB, LB. It just seems so clear that they're trying to build the Carolina Panthers. That's not necessarily a good or bad thing, but the evidence is there. Big, strong QB. Strong running game. Incredibly athletic MLB. Tough front four. Smart, disciplined DBs. One thing about the oline - few olines can deal with the talent and the schemes they find on the defenses they face. Even if you can put together a superior line, you can't afford to keep it for very long - free agents are always leaving, because if you're paying a stud left tackle, you can afford to pay maybe one more stud on the line, but that's it. One way to approach this combination of problems is to design an offense around that problem. That's why the offenses have gone to the quick passing game. Also, coaches are necessarily required to work with less than the best talent, so they design blocking schemes, like zone blocking, that depend more on execution than on winning the physical battle. Just get the defense moving and get in their way. If you do that, you can live with less than the best talent - with guys you draft on day three, where you find dedicated players with less that premier size or talent. I'm hoping the Bills find today two or three of the guys they need up front. They won't be stars, but they can be serviceable.

You're just unhappy you missed out on the doughnuts.

I've been defending Tom Donahoe for years. He traded back up into the first round to take Losman. Obviously didn't work, but the GM's job is to go get talent. Whaley, Nix - they all showed courage. They took chances. That's what the job requires. The Bills have been plagued by a series of bad judgments. Let's hope that's changing.

Actually I'd guess he has a veto. For example, i can imagine that if Terry and Kim were really unhappy about the Tweet from five years ago, they might have vetoed Allen.

Thanks. I really wasn't responding to any bellyaching; I was just talking my thoughts about what happened last night.

I'm with you. Second only to Allen succeeding, I want Darnold to bust.

One thing they didn't do is panic. These two guys are the epitome of being prepared, being patient and sticking with their plan. If, as you suggest, Mayfield and Darnold were their first two choices, they were prepared for that. They knew how much they were willing to pay to get Allen. They had a deal in place with Tampa Bay (Beane said so), and when Allen got to 7, the Bills called and finalized the deal. It may turn out to be a mistake, but if so, it was a mistake in judgment, not panic.

Good point. There definitely are some people who don't like Rosen.

When the Bills were on the clock at 7, I wanted Rosen. Literally seconds before Goodell made the announcement, I thought "I don't want Rosen, I want Allen." For me, it's attitude, and Rosen demonstrated it again in his comments about making 9 teams pay. For Rosen, sooner or later it always seems to be about Rosen. I don't a guy like that. I want a guy who's always about winning. Look, Allen went at 7, Rosen at 10. Which guy had the right, over his entire football career, to feel slighted? The guy whose nickname in high school, for heaven's sake, was "chosen." The guy who went to the glamour football school? The guy who's been all over the media for the past three years? Of the guy who played 8-man football in high school, who was recruited by ZERO Division I schools, the guy who went to junior college and sent 1000 emails to coaches, begging for a shot? Allen has lived his football life PROVING people wrong. Rosen has lived his football life reading his press clippings.

Wow!!!! That's outstanding analysis. I just knew the Bills wanted big fast guys, but you explain how they will be utilized. I think McD desperately wants Edmunds to succeed in the middle. We wants a guy who can play the deep zone in the cover 2, and Brown just didn't have the speed to get back there. Edmunds does. And his height not only helps with the A gap rushes. It also means he's getting his hands on balls that were consistently six inches over Brown's reach last season.

Um, the Wonderlic isn't an intelligence test. It IS a processing speed test. Processing speed under time pressure. I thought I said that.

Well, who knows whether Allen will become that guy, but the Wonderlic is a measure of quick, accurate thinking, and Allen blew away the other QBs on the Wonderlic. His shortcomings in the decision making arena may relate more to his coaching that his abilities. He had a year of junior college, was injured his first year at Wyoming, then played two full seasons. No one is going to mistake the coaching at Wyoming for the coaching at USC, UCLA and Oklahoma. Those are big-time programs with big-time coaches. Craig Bohl has had success, but not at the major college level. He had Carson Wentz for Wentz's freshman and sophomore years and didn't make Wentz the starter. Wentz only started after Bohl left for Wyoming. If Bohl couldn't get Wentz near his ceiling in two years, why should we assume that he did it with Allen?

The Rockpile Review – by Shaw66 “Sling It and Bring It” One day as the Bills brain trust began planning for free agency and the 2018 NFL draft, there was a meeting. The meeting was called by Brandon Beane and attended by Sean McDermott, the coordinators, Terry Pegula and others. Everyone grabbed a pastry and coffee and, after the minutes of the last meeting had been read and approved, they got down to the business at hand. Beane said, “Okay, before we get into the specifics of individual players, let’s define in a broad sense what our player personnel objectives are for this year.” McDermott said, “Get me someone who can sling it and someone who can bring it. Get me a quarterback and a linebacker.” Pegula said, “What about all the other positions where we need help? We need offensive linemen; we need to rebuild the defensive line; we have to do something about the receivers; McCoy isn’t going to play forever.” Beane replied, “Terry, remember that Sean and I told you in my interview that we were going to rebuild this team, that big personnel changes were needed and that it was going to take at least two full seasons to replace many of the players we had with the players Sean needs. Those two seasons are 2018 and 2019 – we played 2017 more or less with the team Sean inherited, less the guys we unloaded. We used last season to get rid of some of the high-value guys Sean didn’t want around and to build a war chest to acquire new players. We tore things down, and now we start building again. “There’s not much we can do in free agency this season, because our dead cap situation is horrible, but the draft is another story. Getting rid of Watkins, Darby and Dareus made the cap situation worse in the short term, but it got us some valuable picks to add to the pick we got from KC in the draft trade last year. So the draft is where we start building. Next year, we’ll have cap room and draft picks and we’ll stock up on players.” “I get all that,” Pegula said, “but that doesn’t explain why we’re only looking for two guys.” McDermott joined in. “Terry, I can teach 20 players who are good, solid NFL athletes how to play their positions to make a winning team. We’ll collect those guys as we go along. But I need two special players. I need a quarterback and I need a linebacker.” Pegula ended the exchange by saying, “I brought you guys here to build a winner, and I said I’d give you complete authority to do it, so you’re calling the shots.” Okay, I wasn’t there, so I don’t know exactly who was there or what was said. I don’t know if there were Dunkin Donuts old fashioned doughnuts or Wegman’s croissants, but I’m betting that exchange between Beane and McDermott took place somewhere, sometime. And Terry Pegula is not a stupid man, so he didn’t need an explanation in 2018 about what the process is. Still, that conversation, or the essence of it, has been at the core of the Buffalo Bills’ strategy as they seek to become relevant in the NFL. How do I know? It was obvious by late last year, if not earlier. Taylor was not McDermott’s guy to run the offense, and Preston Brown simply didn’t have the speed to be McDermott’s guy to spearhead the defense. McDermott wanted and needed someone to sling it and someone to bring it. Beane went to work, and in one April evening in Dallas, he completed the first big steps in the process. It cost him essentially all of the surplus draft capital he and McDermott had acquired trading picks and players over the previous year. Now, with no second round picks this year and with no cap room, Beane will have to wait until 2019 to fill some of the holes. Beane’s not done acquiring guys; there will be some late-round picks and some undrafted free agents, but the guys with high-end NFL measureables will be gone before Beane gets another pick. McDermott and his coaches will do the best they can with the guys who come to camp. We will see how much magic they can do with limited resources, but it’s fair to assume that they will have some weaknesses in the lineup in 2018. The Josh Allen debate will rage on for months, maybe even years. Why didn’t Beane move up to #2 to steal Darnold from the Jets? (Too expensive to get the Giants to move off Barkley.) Why didn’t they take Josh Rosen, the more NFL-ready guy available at 7? (I don’t know, but I’m guessing three reasons: Size and durability, native intelligence – Allen crushed the Wonderlic, and continuing fears that Rosen is a “me-first” guy.) For now, Allen will be number 2 on the depth chart, until he shows, in July or September or November, that he should be the starter. If he isn’t the starter by 2019, the doubters will have been right. And Tremaine Edmunds, talent or not, still hasn’t played a down in the NFL. He’s an unfinished product. Beane could have stayed at #22 and held onto #65 and gotten two good football players, but Beane and McDermott saw what looks like their best shot at a difference maker on defense and took it. Beane and McDermott’s strategy was interesting. After all the debate about the strengths and weaknesses of the quarterbacks in the draft, and after all the analysis of the linebacking prospects, the Bills chose the best athlete at each position. In Allen and Edmunds they have the guys who were the biggest, strongest, best physically equipped players in the draft at their positions. In each case, they were the best by a good margin over the others. Why were the two best athletes available at #7 and #16 in the draft? Primarily because neither has demonstrated football instincts quite as good as some of the others at their positions. Neither was quite as “NFL-ready” as a Baker Mayfield or a Roquan Smith. Was Allen their #1 quarterback? Was Edmunds their #1 linebacker? GMs and coaches never answer that question, and we may never know. What we do know is that Beane and McDermott believe that these guys can be the offensive and defensive leaders they need to build a big-time winner. Essentially, Beane sent a message to McDermott: “I’m getting you the best talent available. It’s your job to get them to be stars in the NFL.” And McDermott is ready for the challenge, because McDermott has shown already that he’s prepared for any football challenge. GO BILLS!!! The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.