Shaw66

You haven't convinced me. What your film study shows is that a guy with a good arm throws accurately even when he's late more than a guy with a bad arm does. That is, his arm strength lets him compensate for some slow decision making. We all know that. That doesn't mean that when he decides late and throws inaccurately that he has a MECHANICAL problem. He probably has a PREPARATION problem. He just hasn't gotten himself into a good position to throw, and sometimes his arm strength doesn't save him. That's why I think that to the extent he has accuracy/precision problems they can be cured by getting him to recognize what's happening and then to make decisions. If he can't do that, then all he's ever going to be is someone like Taylor only a little better. The key to great QB play is in his head. I don't know how you know that, but I agree that would be a problem. If it's true, in some cases athletes with that problem have done therapy and improved. If it's true, I agree that's a mechanical problem and one that would be difficult to overcome. I suspect, but don't know, that in scouting players they test for that. Do you know?

I don't think you and I disagree. What I said, and what I think you restated, is that an NFL qb has to be accurate and it's nice, but not essential if he's precise.

If he did that in college, I don't think he'll do it in the pros. It's very easy to learn to get ready to throw if your body already knows what the ready position is. His body knows. His body doesn't naturally get into bad throwing position - that is, natural throwing motion is fine. Getting into position is a habit you can change; your body thinking a different position is what's necessary is a habit that is much harder to change. It's like a batter who has a great swing but holds his hands too low in his stance. You can change where he holds his hands - that's a preparation problem. A batter whose hips don't open is probably always going to have a problem, because that's a mechanical problem. That's well said. A long time ago I heard about a QB who greatly improved his accuracy - that's what I would have called it, but it was actually his precision, when a coach told him to stop targeting the receiver and start targeting the spot on his chest between the numbers. By focusing his attention on the spot, he began to be much more precise.

Well, that's very interesting. I never knew that distinction. But it really isn't relevant here, except to the extent that the distinction bothers you personally. So we aren't talking about whether a QB is accurate, because we don't want him just to be around the target. And we aren't talking about whether a QB is precise, because we don't want all his throws clustering in the same spot if it's the wrong spot. It's irrelevant except for the language police who are offended. If we go back through this thread and add "and precise" ever time we see "accurate" and we add "and precision" every time we see "accuracy," the meaning of what each poster has said won't change. I DO like the distinction, though. Brady is precise on a lot of his throws, and that's part of what makes him special. There aren't many quarterbacks who put the ball in exactly the right place as often as he does. I think accuracy is what QBs need to succeed in the NFL. I think precision is one of the things that can make them great.

I agree and disagree strongly. That's why I said I don't know if Allen has accuracy issues. I agree very much that physical, mechanical accuracy issues are rarely corrected at the next level. It is very, very difficult to turn around 10 years or more of bad muscle memory. Some guys do it, but not many. I remember reading once about Favre. He had terrible footwork. The Packers worked constantly with him about his footwork, and he became a Hall of Famer because he got his footwork under control. Then there were some coaching changes, and they stopped preaching footwork to him. He went back to his old habits and had a couple of bad seasons, until they realized they had to go back to preaching about his footwork constantly. I think Allen is different. I can't say I've studied the guy carefully, but I think he has excellent mechanics in his basic throwing motion. That's why he generates such power. And we've seen him throw plenty of pinpoint passes. I think to the extent he has accuracy issues, it's probably because his decision making is undeveloped. Here's what I mean: I'd guess that about 75% of throws that an NFL QB makes are to a primary or secondary receiver - look at the defense, see what they're giving you, find the receiver, throw it. I think Allen can throw those 75% all day long, accurate as anyone, so long as he's making the decisions fast enough. If he knows immediately following the snap he's throwing a 12-yard out pattern, he's going to throw it accurately. That is, I think if he knows he's making that throw, his feet, his hips, his shoulders, his hands will naturally get into the right positions to make the throw, because he's a good thrower. The problem is that if he isn't a good decision maker and he decides too late, he has to hurry the throw and then he may be in trouble. Same as any other quarterback. And the other 25% may be a problem, too. But the other 25% are problems for most quarterbacks. Rodgers is about the best I've seen throwing from awkward positions and maintaining his accuracy. He gets upper body rotation when his lower body is way out of position. Allen can make those throws, too, but I don't think he's learned how. Learning how to do that IS possible; that's just a question of getting the game to slow down and practicing. Steph Curry makes some of the most awkward looking layups I've ever seen - he makes because he practices them. I think the Bills are going to teach Allen what he's looking at, and once he's learned it, he'll be just fine on the 75%. What he does on the other 25% will separate him the others, just as it does with all other QBs.

Plenty of people think I should be committed. Most people are incredulous when I tell them I'm a season ticket holder and drive six and a half hours one way for games.

I was there too.

I don't know if Allen has accuracy issues. I think it's unusual for a guy with accuracy issues coming out of college to fix it.

I don't think anyone knows anything yet. No matter how well Allen might be doing in OTAs, there's no reason to move him up to the second of first string yet. Moving him up quickly will raise expectations and put pressure on him. The guy has never been in an NFL camp, he's learning a new system with all new coaches, and he's been at it for less than three weeks. McD is keeping a low profile with him. If he's better than either of the other two, training camp is plenty of time to move him up. I'm sure the Bills haven't made any kind of decisions about when this guy is going to see the field. We'll know how he's doing when we see which squad he practices with in training camp and how many, if any, first team reps he gets in training camp and pre-season games. In other words, we will begin to know some things in a couple of months.

I like that.

Also, for those of you who think Taylor was terrible in the Jets game in New York, I think you're wrong. First, he threw for 280 yards, 2 TDs and no INTs, with a passer rating of 108. Then you'll say it was in garbage time. However, if you go through the play-by-play and tally the stats as you go, you will see that he performed more or less the same throughout the last three quarters. In general, in the beginning of the game, his pass attempts were on third and long after the Jets had stuffed running plays on first and second down. He had the Bills driving for the score to lead at halftime when Matthews fumbled. When the Bills actually let him pass on first down in the third quarter, he stated another drive and then O'Leary fumbled. You can fault Taylor for his fumble, but that's about it. He had a little over 100 yards on his last two TD drives, but that was when many of his passing attempts occurred, too. I didn't give up on him until last year. I think it takes most QBs three years or more on the field to develop the skills they need, so 2016 bothered me but didn't cause me to give up. 2017 did.

Gunner, I've been a big Taylor supporter for years, but I think you're just flat out wrong with this. What you said is classic cherry picking of the data. The only meaningful way to look at players' careers is by looking at season stats. For his three seasons as a starter in Buffalo, Taylor got progressively worse. The other way you could prove that Taylor's performance for three years has been "reasonably on the level" would be to "take those 3 or 4 games" when Taylor was at his best in 2015. What would have? An absolute, dead-on, mediocre journey man. On balance, Taylor did not perform well enough. He had two seasons as a starter, a chance to grow. Then he had a year with a new head coach to prove he could be the guy to lead a winner, and he didn't prove anything.

This is correct. It's a great question. Just the other day, someone asked me about the Bills in a situation where it was appropriate to give an answer of only a couple sentences, and I realized there was no answer other than we have to wait and see. The truth, of course, is that none of us knows whether the Bills are improving or not. We all come on here and talk about the changes, and most of us look at those changes with optimism. But do any of us actually know that the Bills are now on a path toward regular playoff appearances and a Lombardi? No. Do some of us think the Bills still are mired in mediocrity or worse? Yes. So I decided to say only that the Bills are making a lot of changes and look like they're on the right track. After all, if I tell them the Bills are on their way to being great and they then go 5-11 this year, I'll look like an idiot. Can I say with any confidence that they WON'T go 5-11? Actually, no. Now, if someone wants 10 minutes from me about I am confident, I can give it to them. But I'm sure to be clear that after all the changes and all the optimism, I don't really know if it will work. On the other hand, many people don't understand that the Bills haven't been the Browns. Between the Super Bowl losses and the playoff drought and the Pats' dominance, people think the Bills have been really, really bad. People ask me if the Bills ever will stop being horrible. I take a little to explain that the Bills haven't been horrible for several years. They've been a .500 team, more or less, for a while now. However, they view even that explanation as an overstatement from a devoted fan. So, Hapless is correct, there's not much reason to tell them anything. Bills fans get to watch the process, and if the Bills get good, we will understand how it happened. THEN when others ask about where the new Bills came from, we can tell them. Right now, no one's interested. you go, girl.

What does your husband think about that?

The reason not to keep Tyrod was that they could sign a free agent journeyman QB and trade Tyrod for a pick. They filled the short-term QB position and got a pick, too. Plus Gunner' s point. Plus, the odds of MCCarron becoming a keeper were better than Taylor. Taylor had three years to prove he was the guy and didn't. McCarron hasn't failed yet.

I've been saying this for years. You have to learn to take risks. If you don't you probably won't deliver when the time comes. You're right about Taylor. He didn't seem to learn. One symptom of that was his unwillingness to throw before his receiver came open. Maybe he will learn, but I don't think it's his nature.

The year Kuechly arrived, Carolina's defense moved up ten to 15 spots in points defense and yards defense. Yes, a lot of things have to happen, but the Bills have a rookie middle linebacker with a ton of talent, a great pair of corners in Davis and White, a veteran and talented defensive line. Yes, a lot of things have to come together, but setting a goal of top 5 isn't unreasonable. It could happen.

That's interesting. I have the same feelings about both. They are good guys, they work had at what they do, they are as good as half the starters in the league, and, for different reasons, they aren't good enough. Put Fitz's head on Taylor's body, and you probably have a a guy who plays like Drew Brees.

I was going to respond for you, but figured eventually you would do it yourself. You're right. Nobody throws for 375 every week, but a guy who has demonstrated that he CAN do it is as valuable or more valuable than an Adrian Peterson or LaDanian Tomlinson in his prime. Defenses have to prepare for the big thrower, and that preparation opens things up for the offense.

Houston. Already did Green Bay.

Like Hapless, I was about in the same place. I was a little shocked when Taylor was traded, not because he was the future but because I'm too risk averse to be a gm. I wouldn't have traded Tyrod until I knew I had my 2018 starter. It couldn't be a rookie, because I wouldn't put myself in the position of having to start my rookie. Maybe Beane knew he never could do worse than McCarron in the qb musical chairs that were about to begin, and, like Hapless, I'd figure that AJ would be what TT was the last couple of a years - a mediocre starter. So my shock at TT going lasted only until AJ signed. Then I thought talent-wise the Bills were in the same place they'd been with TT - looking for a long-term solution. Will I be completely surprised if Tyrod turns into a successful qb somewhere? No. He has NFL level physical talent. He's a better thrower than people give him credit for. It's possible that in a different environment, a different offense, he will blossom. But the odds on that happening got low enough for the Bills to decide to move on. Whatever the environment, a qb with four years on the bench and then three years starting should show progress, and Taylor didn't. J

I like the passer rating. The best QBs have thw best passer rating, and the mediocre qbs, like Taylor, are 10 to 15 points lower. The stat correlates well.

You're correct. As Zebra said, Taylor regressed over three seasons as a starter. Yes he had a coaching change in there, but still, his first season as a starter should not have been the best, by far, of the three. By season three he should have been making plays that made a difference to the team, and we weren't seeing them. Four seasons on the bench plus three starting should have added up to more.

This is what players always say coming into the second season under the same system. The second season is when you should expect the defense to make big strides, making plays instead of just stops. Players become comfortable with each other and have confidence that the other guy will do his job. Often I. Tebuukds, and it's true with the Bills, is that there's a lot of new personnel to work into the mix in the second season. Third season is when the entire defense typically is mature. But the Bills may mature faster, because not many of the new guys are rookies. Star, Vontae and Murphy shouldn't need most of the season to get up to speed. Much too early to know anything, ut this defense could be very good I. 2018. In my dream world, the defense is top 5 and Josh Allen is a top 10 passer. Thanks for the post.