Shaw66

I'd guess that Beane had Brown and the News in together. Gave them a dual exclusive interview. Among other things McBeane are doing is working to repair relations with the News. They call reporters by first names in the press conferences. They say stuff like "that's a good question." These guys know what they're doing.

That's great stuff. Plenty of details. One thing that's changed under McBeane is that they aren't afraid to tell you stuff. They are confident about what they can and can't say, and they share information. That's great for the fans. One question. Beane says he knew very very little about the qbs on the day the Jets traded up. Beand saod, essentially, that he was in no position to make a move like that at that time. Well, the Jets traded a boat load to get to three, so they to know there were three qbs they would take. How could they be so sure about threw when Beane didn't know anything? Were the Jets just stupid and got lucky?

This is a good description of the likely scenario. I do think then OP is correct. This was unusual. If you bring in a Chip Kelly or an Ndy Reid, if he tells the owner the GM hasntongo, fine, I get. But this was a young, rookie head coach. What happened here, I would guess, was anyoung combination of pre-existing dissatisfaction with Whaley and Brandon and a very positive impression made by McD.

I think you're exactly correct. Exactly.

I dont think the Pegulas will have a quick trigger with these guys. They're good for at least two more years, probably three and maybe four or five.

Outstanding. Really insightful. What McD wants from Allen is for him to keep getting better, week after week. If he's doing that, it could take him 3 or 4 years to become a good QB. McD will have that patience. Many fans won't.

I don't have a great recollection, but I think the reaction to Allen has been more vocally negative than to either of the other two. There were people who didn't like the Manuel pick, for sure, but Manuel was generally rated as the first or second best prospect in the draft, with Geno Smith. Then the Bills traded back in the draft before taking him. So the reaction of many people was, "good, you got the best QB in the draft and you got an extra pick out of the deal." JP, many people didn't like him, but he WAS the fifth rated QB in the draft and it was widely expected that he'd go in the bottom of the first or top of the second. I appreciated Donohoe's aggressiveness in going and getting him. People like this one less because in terms of draft capital, Allen was much more expensive. And, I think, people have bought all of the loud and repeated complaints about his accuracy and decision making. I don't remember the complaining about Manuel being that bad, but in part that was because the Bills didn't spend nearly as much in draft capital, and got change back. In other words, based on draft capital, the Bills risked more on him than on the others. I think that magnifies his potential shortcomings. I'm expecting Allen to be the best QB of the lot five years from now. I just have enormous confidence in McBeane. I think they really know what they're doing, and I think they know exactly what they're going to do with Allen.

This And this.

So you're saying Josh Allen will be the Michael Jordan of the NFL? Should I start on my Three-Peat Rockpile Review?

Thanks.

To your first point, I'd say it was just coincidence. Several teams were telling Allen they loved him; for some reason he just felt it would be Buffalo. Your second point is very interesting. Given Andy Reid's view of Mahomes, and how he's played in limited action, it certainly seems odd that they passed on Mahomes. There are explanations, like McD wanted the new GM to make the pick, not Whaley, but it also could be that McD saw Allen coming and wanted him. Plus, McD could see that Darnold and Rosen and Mayfield were coming, so in general it looked like a good year. Some teams DO fall in love with players early and continue to like them. If you're right, that's the kind of story that won't get told now; it'll get told after Allen wins a Super Bowl or two, and McDermott is reminiscing about the first time he saw Allen and how that day he made up his mind. Donahoe's similar story about Losman never gets told!

That's interesting. I think they have two models: The athletic freak they can get in round 1 and maybe round 2, and the smart, dedicated over-achiever they can get in the later rounds. That is, I think they value athleticism at the top of the draft and character every place else. Obviously, talent and character are issues throughout, but I think in later rounds the guy with character beats out similar guy with better measureables.

I don't know about Phillips - I don't study these guys. But from the little I've read, I think you're right. I'm finding myself having more and more confidence in McDermott and Beane. McDermott has a very highly defined sense of what he's doing. He knows what he can teach, and what he can't. He's kind of the opposite of Rex - Rex seemed to sit back and say "if you get me the right talent, I can win." Then he'd whine that he didn't have the right talent, the best players. Sean isn't looking necessarily for the best talent, although he loves it when he gets it. He's looking for guys who will work hard every day, commit to the team, and do what they're told. He's looking for over-achievers. He's looking for the Chris Hogans and Jim Leonards in the football universe. That, in turn, makes life easier for Beane. Beane knows he doesn't have to get the biggest, strongest, fastest, most athletic guy at each position. Instead, he can choose from any guys who have the minimum requirements for size, strength, speed and athleticism AND who have the right work ethic/team commitment. Rounds four through seven and the undrafted rookies is where Beane can find a lot of guys who will never be stars but will do what McDermott needs. I think Phillips is one of those guys. I think he has the brains and the heart to do what McD wants, and is physical limitations, the fact that he might be a bit of a tweener, won't be so important. And I think Beane will get more of those guys today. What I'm expecting is that the fans will be surprised in October and November how well holes have been plugged with rookies and guys who've spent the last two years on practice squads, getting called up for a game or two here or there. Then next year, some of the weaker guys who plugged holes will be replaced by first and second round picks and by some free agents. 2018 is pretty clearly year one of a two-year process. This year in idle moments McD will be wishing he had someone at this position and that position; next year he'll have his guys everywhere. That's what makes this year a test of McD's coaching ability. Talent-wise, he could have a 5-11 team. If he's a good coach (and if the QB position works out at least okay), he could be sniffing the playoffs. If he can do that, the 2019 Bills will be in position to make serious noise.

He could have, but someone had to offer it. The Bills are probably the only team that had the draft capital to make it happen, and I would be amazed if the Bills didn't at least talk to the Browns about it. Here's how it likely went: Bills call Giants and ask if they'd swap #2 for#12, #22 and next year's first (that was rumored to have happened). Giants say no. Giants say if you can get us #4, we can talk. Bills call Browns. Browns say we're not moving out of #4; we like it here. Bills say how about our two firsts for you #4. (Bills are thinking they can get the Giants to take #4 and next year's first.) Browns say no, we like being at #4; if you want us to move out of #4 you have to give us more, like maybe next year's first. That means the Bills have to give the Giants one or both of this year's seconds to move back two spots. At some point, it just got too expensive to the Bills. Remember, McDermott said that their plan this week was to find a way to get a QB and get Edmunds, which meant they'd probably have to trade up twice. Beane maintained his discipline; if he'd put together some kind of three-way deal with the Browns and Giants, he wouldn't have had enough capital left to trade up Edmunds. So he decided to wait, and if the opportunity arose, to trade up to 5, 6, 7 or 8 for the QB. That would leave him enough trade bait to Edmunds. It worked as he planned. Beane may have gotten his second choice QB - if he'd gotten to #2 he might have taken Darnold, but Edmunds was his consolation prize.

it's always nice to think they got the guy they wanted all along without having to trade up further. The thing is, Rosen might have felt the same thing. And Darnold. The teams are telling all these guys they love 'em, because they want the guys to be happy if they go to that team.

Right. This is simple. The GMs know how much they want a particular guy, and they also know how much they're willing to give up to get a guy. Gettleman didn't listen to offers because (1) he knew he really wanted Barkley and (2) no really obscene offer came in. The Bills were rumored to have offered their two firsts plus a first next year, and Gettleman said. No. What would have happened if the Bills had also offered their two seconds and two thirds. At some point, Gettleman was going to listen. But the other GMs know what they're willing to offer, and none wanted to move up as badly as Gettleman wanted to stay where he was.

1. I was on the Cousins bandwagon. These videos show you what kind of guy he is. Bills just didn't have the cash to play in that game. 2. Every time I see a video like this, I'm impressed by how complicated the game is. Fans complain that this QB doesn't go deep often enough or that QB doesn't throw over the middle enough. The truth is that practically all the fans simply don't understand what's going on out there. I don't either. 3. In these videos, Allen SOUNDS like he know what he's talking about. 4. I do think, as someone else said, that this is a guy who hasn't gotten nearly as much coaching as the other first-round guys. IF he's coachable, and IF he's willing to do the work, I think we will see a lot from him. It's hard not fall in love with the throws he can make. 5. Hapless - I suppose it's possible that a coach here and there found one of the tweets, but I think they do that kind of digging on guys generally only after the kid has gotten onto their short-list of players they're interested in. Allen more likely was ignored by college coaches because he didn't make it past the first few screens they have. Maybe Allen never made it to the right showcase clinics, so coaches didn't see him. Maybe he didn't come from the part of the country where coaches expect to find talent. These coaches gets thousands videos from players, and they don't have time to study them. Frankly, they don't even have time to look at them. A couple of my kids were good athletes in high school I saw the process. The D I coaches make up their minds very quickly about kids. They go to some clinics and to some tournaments, see some kids, hear from some coaching colleagues about kids, develop a list and move on. If you're not on the list, they don't spend much time on you. You can send them video, they often don't watch. They just have to decide what to spend their time on. I saw it hiring folks at my firm. We looked at the top 25% of the local school. There always were some people in the bottom 75% who were going to become excellent in their field, but mistakes were expensive to us. The probability that a kid in the top 25% would succeed was higher than the probability of the kid in the bottom 75%. It was a losing proposition for us to try to figure out who those people in the bottom 75% were. The kid might tell us he'd make it, but every kid is telling us that. So, just like coaches, we looked at a little data and quickly eliminated a lot of people. The Michael Jordan story is interesting. I think he got cut from the JV team as a freshman. When he was, I think, a junior, some UNC assistant coach went to a game Jordan was playing in, but the coach was there to scout another kid. He saw Jordan, and when he got home he told Dean Smith that Smith ought to see Jordan, because there was something about him suggesting he could be special. Several of Jordan's advisors told him he would get buried on the bench at UNC and he should set his sights lower. Finally, coaches don't take chances. You've got maybe 20 scholarships a year (95 total, five years per kid). So you look for the guys who project as likely successes. It's easy after the fact to say that it was stupid of these coaches to have missed on Allen, but really, it was understandable. The guys who project as successes succeed more often than the guys who don't project as success. You're betting your job if you go after guys who give you some feeling in your gut, because most of those guys let you down. So Dean Smith, for example, could afford to offer a scholarship to Jordan, because Smith was so secure at UNC that he wasn't betting his job. But if you're at Texas and you pass on a five star recruit because Josh Allen looks like he might grow into something, you won't be at Texas for very long, because most of those Josh Allens fail. Point is, there are a lot of reasons why colleges fail to identify talent, and it's usually because they don't, can't, take the time to study every kid in detail.

That's an interesting analysis. It's need based, but it makes some sense. Months ago, when the draft was off in the future, I had some unspecific notion that the Bills would get a couple of offensive linemen in the first three rounds. Like you, I was a little unhappy they didn't. But your post makes me realize the value wasn't there. If the only way to get good linemen is to forgo the chance to get a top QB and a top linebacker, you have to go QB, LB. It just seems so clear that they're trying to build the Carolina Panthers. That's not necessarily a good or bad thing, but the evidence is there. Big, strong QB. Strong running game. Incredibly athletic MLB. Tough front four. Smart, disciplined DBs. One thing about the oline - few olines can deal with the talent and the schemes they find on the defenses they face. Even if you can put together a superior line, you can't afford to keep it for very long - free agents are always leaving, because if you're paying a stud left tackle, you can afford to pay maybe one more stud on the line, but that's it. One way to approach this combination of problems is to design an offense around that problem. That's why the offenses have gone to the quick passing game. Also, coaches are necessarily required to work with less than the best talent, so they design blocking schemes, like zone blocking, that depend more on execution than on winning the physical battle. Just get the defense moving and get in their way. If you do that, you can live with less than the best talent - with guys you draft on day three, where you find dedicated players with less that premier size or talent. I'm hoping the Bills find today two or three of the guys they need up front. They won't be stars, but they can be serviceable.

You're just unhappy you missed out on the doughnuts.

I've been defending Tom Donahoe for years. He traded back up into the first round to take Losman. Obviously didn't work, but the GM's job is to go get talent. Whaley, Nix - they all showed courage. They took chances. That's what the job requires. The Bills have been plagued by a series of bad judgments. Let's hope that's changing.

Actually I'd guess he has a veto. For example, i can imagine that if Terry and Kim were really unhappy about the Tweet from five years ago, they might have vetoed Allen.

Thanks. I really wasn't responding to any bellyaching; I was just talking my thoughts about what happened last night.

I'm with you. Second only to Allen succeeding, I want Darnold to bust.

One thing they didn't do is panic. These two guys are the epitome of being prepared, being patient and sticking with their plan. If, as you suggest, Mayfield and Darnold were their first two choices, they were prepared for that. They knew how much they were willing to pay to get Allen. They had a deal in place with Tampa Bay (Beane said so), and when Allen got to 7, the Bills called and finalized the deal. It may turn out to be a mistake, but if so, it was a mistake in judgment, not panic.

Good point. There definitely are some people who don't like Rosen.