Shaw66

Two years after they drafted EJ they bet on Taylor. Most teams make only one bet at a time. Bills have made a lot of bad bets. Losman Edwards Fitz EJ Taylor

It depends on what you mean by mistake. Everyone agrees that EJ hasn't become a useful NFL starter, so by that measure he was a mistake. But the Bills needed a qb and they had to get the best one they could. They were going to take SOMEONE. Could Nix have traded down and still gotten the guy he wanted? I don't know, but if he could have, them that was a mistake. But the EJ draft is exactly what I'm talking about. You need a qb, you see a guy with potential but with problems. You take him. In five years either the guy is good or he's another one of those guys who make up the 50% Bust rate in the first round. In other words, teams overdraft qbs, because betting on one is better than not betting.

Cambo Thanks for the post. A lot of provocative thoughts, and I think there's more truth there than people recognize. Your qb analysis is as good as anyone else. I think your analysis of the draft will go or should go is spot on. The Giants are the key.

Well if you read the article or some of the posts here you'd see that NO ONE, including the people who wrote the art I cle, thinks there's an1-1 correlation. I missed all of that. Scapulars? I'll have to come here more often. As for Meanie's post, I do think the pros are several steps ahead of us when it comes to guessing. The problem in the qb department is that if your team needs a qb, you have to take chances on guys. On a Losman, an Edwards, a Manuel. You have take someone. The simple fact is that it appears that there are only ten or twelve guys on the planet who can really master the position and there are 32 teams looking for QB's. So they take guys hoping they're own evaluation turns to be wrong.

Read what they say about Darnold. Surprisingly, very few guys who have started only two years in college have made it in the NFL, and the ones that did make in the pros had much better production in college than Darnold. Cam Newtons stats in college blow away Darnold.

As some of you know, Football Outsiders takes a highly analytical, statistically driven approach to evaluating teams and individual players. Like any rating system, there are assumptions built into their analytical tools that affect their results. Thus, like any rating system, there's some bias built into the system. Still, they're objective is to be as objective as possible. I happened to look at Football Outsiders today, and it turns out they have a system for evaluating college quarterbacks. I have no idea how they do it, but I'm sure they explain it on their website. If it's like their other systems, you'll need a Masters degree in statistics to understand it. They have applied their system, called QBASE, to previous drafts. The highest rated guys on their system are Rivers, Palmer, McNabb, Russell Wilson, Peyton, Mariota, Leftwich, Rodgers and Roethlisberger. In other words, their system seems to work reasonably well. Certainly there are some names they missed, and Leftwich is an outlier, but it seems like if a guy rates high on their system there's a pretty good chance that he's going to make it in the NFL. Doesn't mean that some other guys who aren't highly rated won't make it; just means that you're looking good if you rate high. So they analyzed 2018, and one guy stands alone - everyone else is back in the pack somewhere, not close. Baker Mayfield rates number 4 on their ALL-TIME list, of college quarterbacks behind McNabb and ahead of Russell Wilson. Their article about this is here: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/qbase-2018 Sorry if this has been discussed in another thread - I didn't see it anywhere.

TJ Graham was the worst pick because the OBVIOUS pick at that slot was Russell Wilson. It was no brainer.

I like Mayfield. I think I like him better than the others. Only thing I don't like is his height. Reports are he's extremely accurate. I like that. He's a big time competitor and I like that. He can scramble but he's slow. I think the punk stuff is overblown. Big Ben was pretty outta control when he was young. I like that he's won a lot.

There will be problems with this rule, but after a year or so it will be fine. Remember the uproar when the defenseless receiver rule came on? DBS took a whole to adjust, but now you don't see guys getting rung up every week, and the defenses aren't getting gashed. Guys will change how they play and the refs will learn to use some judgment about when to make call. 2018 will be messy, but 2019 will be fine.

Happy birthday, Boss!

This is correct. People need to keep the bigger picture in mind. There are 32 teams. Each one has needs, views about the players in the draft, cap situations, etc. As someone said, the Bills didn't choose the Bengals out of 31 teams to trade Glenn to. The Bengals happened to be the right combination - they had a need, they had an attractive pick, they were willing to deal. Similarly, the Jets didn't trade with the Colts to try to close out the Bills opportunities. They looked at THEIR needs, THEIR assets and THEIR evaluation of the qbs in the draft and made a move. Also. I doubt the Colts broke a promise with the Bills. The GMs all explain the same activity - they're talking with each other about what it would take to put together a deal, when they want to do it, etc. If the Bills had an agreement with the Colts, it was that they both would agree to make that deal when both were ready to do it and if nothing better came along. I'm sure when the Jets put together their offer, the Colts went back to the Bills and said "things have changed. Can you do more?" The Bills evaluated their situation and declined to do more. Beane didn't get out maneuvered. He just didn't want to spend more for the Colts' pick. GMs are dealing with the hands they're dealt, and the hands change from day to day. As soon as a possible Colts deal disappeared, Beane began to reevaluate. He talked more, I'm sure, with the Browns and Giants to see what it would cost to get to 1 or 2, and he and his staff are evaluating whether any of the available rookies is worth what it will cost. If Beane decides he isn't paying that price to move up, he'll be considering what other teams will be looking for to move up from 12. If that all looks too pricey, he'll be looking at which QBs he thinks are worth it at 12 and 22. Maybe he actually WILL thing about trading out of 12 to get another first round pick for 2019. That would give him a year to evaluate McCarron. It might be a smart move, because just about every team that really needs a QB will have gotten one this year and won't be competitors to trade up in 2019. He's constantly looking, thinking, reevaluating. Everything. Every other GM is doing the same thing. And Beane is going to make mistakes. He may make a mistake trading up. He may make a mistake not trading up. I'm feeling good as a fan because I think he's smart, he works hard and he doesn't let his emotions get in the way of his judgment. Yes, he can and will make mistakes, but I don't think he'll make many.

This is all discussion about how to approach the process. I think Parcells had a discipline. He followed this rule to make a first cut of candidates. If you asked him, he would agree, I think, that applying this discipline means that he will miss on some guys who didn't make this cut - that is, some guys that don't make the cut are going to succeed. Parcells was okay with that, because the discipline was more about eliminating from consideration most of the guys who aren't going to make it. That is, his criteria were intended to minimize mistakes. I heard a story once, true story, about a guy who was responsible for hiring in his company. When he was asked how he selected candidates for a particular job, he said he made two piles of resumes - one with history majors who played intercollegiate team sports, the other with everyone else. Then he looked quickly through the everyone else pile to see if there was anyone there who might make it. But he actually did just about all of his hiring out of the history major pile. He did that because they had found over the years that those were the people who succeeded in that position. When they hired good looking candidates from the other pile, they failed more often than succeeded. Why history majors who played sports? Because in the company, they worked in teams, and their business required big picture analysis. History is a big picture discipline. I think Parcells was doing the same thing. What he had learned, or his gut told him, was that guys who didn't meet the criteria tended to fail in the NFL at a significantly higher rate than the guys who did meet them. So, for example, Darnold doesn't meet them. Does that mean he'll fail? No, but if he succeeds in the NFL, it will mean he's an outlier. Parcell's discipline says if you want to pick Darnold, you hae to realize you're betting on him being an outlier, which means the odds of his succeeding should be expected to be less than they would appear. It's all just a guide.

Yes, some guys come out early, but then again, their seasons are longer than they used to be. A lot of these guys are playing 13-14 games a year now. AND - if the guy stays in college, gets a degree and starts for three seasons, that says something about the guy. One reason Parcells had this three years starting rule, I'm sure, was that if don't have three seasons of film to watch on the guy, you really don't know enough about him to make a big investment. Plus, Rosen had three years starting and didn't get to 23 wins. He was injured a bit, but he have needed to go 6-0 or 6-1 in the games he missed to get to 23. So he wasn't on pace to get where Parcells wanted him to be. Darnold, on the other hand, was blowing away the stats requirements, but only started for two seasons. He's the kind of guy who looks so good, staying in school is more likely to hurt his draft stock, not help it.

I didn't intend this thread to be a general QB discussion but seeing people valuing one QB or another made me to look at the Parcells QB requirements. Three year starter, graduate, over 60% completions, 30 starts, 23 wins, 2-1 td to Int ratio. Mayfield and Rudolph.

That's my point. Of course, where anyone's floor is is impossible to determine. But what I'm saying is that if there are four, for example, above the floor, going after best isn't necessarily the smart move. It's all unknowable, of course, and Beane's going to do the best he can. If he trades up, some people will like it and some won't. In fact, many of those in favor of trading up will be disappointed, because Beane won't take THEIR guy. SOME of us know what is the right thing to do. WHO those people are will be known only several years from now.

If you're going to analyze it in terms of probabilities, of course, the probabilities are interesting. If there's a 50% chance that Darnold will be a true franchise, a 40% chance that Mayfield will and a 20% chance that Rudolph will, drafting Mayfield AND Rudolph is slightly more likely to get you a franchise guy, and you can do that burning less draft capital. The point is, even if we all agreed who the best QB prospect is, it isn't necessarily the case that the smart move is to trade up to draft him.

That's true. And that's where Meanie's Las Vegas analogy begins to make some sense. When do you go all in? And it's more complicated than that. Just because you know there's a 50% chance you're getting Manning doesn't mean you trade your entire draft for the next three seasons to get him. There's a limit to how much draft capital you ought to spend to take that chance. So, for example, it was a less difficult decision for the Jets to move to 3 than it was for the Bills. But the point is still the same - if you need a quarterback, and if you see more than one that look like good bets, it isn't necessarily the case that you should spend what itakes to bet on the one you think is better. I'm not saying it's easy to decide. Just saying it isn't even obvious what the objective is.

A couple of people say Darnold is THE franchise QB in the draft, head and shoulders above the others. Okay, let's suppose after all their analysis the Bills conclude Darnold is the next Peyton Manning and Rosen is the next Drew Brees. Manning went number 1, Drew Brees went 32nd. Do you trade all the way to top of the draft to get Darnold or play your cards to preserve draft capital and take Rosen? I think if those were the facts, you take Rosen, but I think it's an interesting question.

I was thinking about the challenge of deciding on who's the best QB in the draft when it occurred to me that isn't necessarily the objective. I mean, sure, you always want to take the best player available, and sure, the Bills will rank the QB prospects 1 to 20 or whatever. But what matters most when you take a QB is to get one who's going to be a really good NFL QB. If you could choose among Manning, Rivers and Roethlisberger, what history tells us is that one may have better career than the others, but if you got one you were in good shape. The same may be true this year. Everyone seems to have a favorite, be it Rosen, Darnold, Mayfield or Allen. Which one of those you get is less important than if you get one of the guys in that group (or outside that group, for that matter) who turns out to be successful. Why does this matter? Because it informs the Bills in deciding whether and how far to trade up. If they think five QBs in this class are likely to have significant success, then they probably can sit at 12 and get a good QB. If they think it's only four look likely, then they can sit at 12 but have to be prepared to deal quickly once a couple of guys fall off the board. If they think it's three, they'd better start lining up a trade partner in the top 5 or better. If they think it's two or only one, then maybe they have to move to plan B. The point is, there's no sense in trading up if you think there are five legitimate starters in the class. Yes, you can trade up and get a better starter, but but the cost is prohibitive. I'll be surprised if the Bills trade up before round 1 begins. I think they go into round 1 knowing the general outlines of deals they'd make with two or three teams, and then they wait to see how the first couple of picks go.

Be strong, Zay. Come back even better.

Funny, but London Fletcher had 96, 78 and 63 tackles playing 16 games a season when he was Dansby's age. If the Bills find a rookie MLB, who better to teach him?

I've been saying this for years. I'd love to be on the inside to see and hear what these guys are thinking about. In GM, about the Giants' GM Ernie Accorsi, they recount his scouting trip to Happy Valley. Watching the game, Accorsi commented about how well coached Posluzny was, noting that his first step, either right or left, forward or back, always was with the correct leg in the correct direction. I mean, really, who on this board watches that stuff? Tiny details, observed and collected. People don't believe it when Beane says he really hasn't begun his evaluation of the QBs in the draft, but I do. If they're collecting that kind of data about prospects, it's completely believable that (1) they haven't completed collecting and assimilating the data and (2) Beane hasn't had time yet to begin studying it. As the Bills continue to sign free agents over the past day or two, it's clear that his focus is still elsewhere. Listening to McBeane, it's clear they've learned a process with the Panthers (and the Eagles, in McD's case), and they follow the process. They have to consider pros and cons, compare apples and oranges, collect information from agents, other GMs, other coaches, wondering all the time how reliable that information is. Precision is necessary to get it right, and almost all aspects of the process are imprecise. The Kevin Costner film Draft Day is typical Hollywood fare, but it captures the uncertainty and the tension as Costner decides what to do about HIS quarterback situation. Since they'e arrived, I've been impressed. They're not going to get 'em all correct, but they sure seem to be on the right path. Watching the draft will be fun.

Got one of those. How about a pants sized qb? Right. And by the way, Beane said to Peter King that he told the owners that getting the payroll under control was a two-year project. So after this year, Williams almost certainly will retire, and the only holdover big contracts (McCoy and Clay) can both be terminated with minimal cap consequence. It's a total rebuild.

Can't you guys concentrate on football?

Eric Wood money! That's probably it. So it wasn't a slip that revealed that more is coming. Thanks.