Shaw66

That's the concept I was thinking of but couldn't put my finger on. Shrink the windows. That's what he's going to do. He's going to make the 3rd and 7 completion for a first down tougher. It's not that he's going to get 14 interceptions and 20 breakups. He's just going to make it harder to throw into the middle medium zone. He's going to force the Qbinto lower probability throws, which should result in fewer third down conversions for opponents.

Oh, yeah. I was doing a simple comparison with Brown, and Keuchly was the other natural comparison. I don't think anyone has any business declaring that Edmunds is the next Keuchly. Edmunds COULD be that guy, but that's a truly high standard to get measured against. Keuchly is truly special. He's not the classic old-time MLB, who were more down hill run stoppers with speed. Keuchly is only a bit less of a run stopper, but he's also damn near a defensive back. With Keuchly on the field, that defense is sort of simultaneously in a 4-3 and 4-2-5. That's special, and it takes football smarts and hard work to be that guy. Edmunds has the physical tools to do what Keuchly does, but it'll be some time before we find out if he can play at the level. We might see flashes, maybe many flashes, but he'll need time to become a Keuchly.

I hadn't really focused on who populate the defense in 2018, and this thread is a really good summary. Good to great discussion. I read and I get excited. It isn't going to fall exactly like any of you say, because there will injuries and other surprises. A guy who isn't even on the team yet could be a significant addition. And there's a broader, organizational point: the Bills run a true team defense - it's about everyone doing his job., and a lot of these guys now have a year under their belts in this system. We could see the defensive backfield growing during the season as they learned how to flow with one another within the system. This year, those guys will be teaching the newcomers (there'll be two to three or four across the front seven, and a couple guys working into the backfield. This defense will be further along in September than it was last season, and the new guys learning will be upgrades physically over the guys they've replace. Pretty exciting.

That's my reaction. Milano is one of those guys (I'm guessing) who will show flashes but who will have weaknesses that get exploited, weaknesses they can't overcome. It's what I've been saying about Brown and Edmunds. Brown made the most of his talents, but he's hit a ceiling because of his lack of speed. Milano has weaknesses that will limit what he can do. The interesting thing about McDermott is that his approach WILL make stars of an occasional guy, despite the guy's limitations. Those guys play better than their talent projects, but they only can do in the environment the coach built. Like all the players who looked like stars playing for Belichick, and were only okay or worse elsewhere. If McDermott makes Milano into a stud outside linebacker tor the next ten years, it will mean the Bills have one of the great head coaches in the league.

Tweaked me good with the slide rule post. I liked it. (In my defense, I began the post by saying I wanted to quantify it because I was curious. It's not like I didn't already know he was faster than Brown.) I'd disagree with your assessment of Brown, but I haven't watched the All 22. Brown seemed to me to be just a step or two out of position, not my-little-brother out of position. Someone else started talking abut 35-yard passes. Most passes are shorther than that, and the 35 yard passes are typically to the sideline, and Edmunds won't be defending those. I think where we'll see the difference is throws over the middle - QBs will learn that nothing's open over the middle, because Edmunds is standing right in the middle of the target area.

This is something I've only thought about a little. Others have commented on it. There are a lot of solid players on the defense. Hughes and Lawson and Star and Kyle and Phillips. Edmunds and Zo. DBs and safeties. The defense was pretty good last season, when everyone was just learning. Now they're going to weave in the new comers, and the talent upgrade should make the defense really tough tough this season. Then Zo and Kyle will retire, but they'll be replaced. The defense in Buffalo will a force.

Only a bit better all around, but Keuchly's 20 time is faster, which means that Keuchly's better in the first ten steps. That's why I think it's a push. The point is that Edmunds has all the physical tools to be as effective as Keuchly. Keuchly was built for McD's defense, and Edmund's is too. That's why when you read the articles today where Beane talks in depth about the draft, Beane says they were overjoyed after the first night. They didn't think they had a chance to get BOTH a QB they wanted and Edmunds. It fell perfectly for the Bills.

McD won't tolerate mental laziness. Nor worries there.

Edmunds is slightly faster in the 40. a little slower in the 20, so I'd guess their ability to drop is about the same. Edmunds is two inches taller. So I'd say that physically it's a push.

I wanted to see specifically how much difference Edmunds' size and speed should make over Preston Brown, so I calculated it. If the QB delivers the ball in two seconds and throws a 35 yard pass, the ball arrives at its destination about 3 seconds after the snap. Based on their combine times for the 20 and 40, Edmunds will get 1.5 to 2 yards deep (on a deep drop) or wider (if he's going to the flat) than Brown. Plus, Edmunds is 4 inches taller and has slightly longer arms. My continuing memories of Brown in pass coverage was that his drops regularly weren't deep enough or wide enough. He read the plays correctly, but the ball always seemed to pass six to twelve inches over his outstretched arm. Assuming Edmunds can learn to make the reads as well as Brown did, those balls are going to be incomplete or intercepted. Bigger, better, faster athlete.

I think you're right about the Jets. They couldnt get one or two, they certainly could afford to let the Bills get three. I think they swallowed hard and leapt. Beane's patience got him Edmunds. Lovin it.

I'd guess that Beane had Brown and the News in together. Gave them a dual exclusive interview. Among other things McBeane are doing is working to repair relations with the News. They call reporters by first names in the press conferences. They say stuff like "that's a good question." These guys know what they're doing.

That's great stuff. Plenty of details. One thing that's changed under McBeane is that they aren't afraid to tell you stuff. They are confident about what they can and can't say, and they share information. That's great for the fans. One question. Beane says he knew very very little about the qbs on the day the Jets traded up. Beand saod, essentially, that he was in no position to make a move like that at that time. Well, the Jets traded a boat load to get to three, so they to know there were three qbs they would take. How could they be so sure about threw when Beane didn't know anything? Were the Jets just stupid and got lucky?

This is a good description of the likely scenario. I do think then OP is correct. This was unusual. If you bring in a Chip Kelly or an Ndy Reid, if he tells the owner the GM hasntongo, fine, I get. But this was a young, rookie head coach. What happened here, I would guess, was anyoung combination of pre-existing dissatisfaction with Whaley and Brandon and a very positive impression made by McD.

I think you're exactly correct. Exactly.

I dont think the Pegulas will have a quick trigger with these guys. They're good for at least two more years, probably three and maybe four or five.

Outstanding. Really insightful. What McD wants from Allen is for him to keep getting better, week after week. If he's doing that, it could take him 3 or 4 years to become a good QB. McD will have that patience. Many fans won't.

I don't have a great recollection, but I think the reaction to Allen has been more vocally negative than to either of the other two. There were people who didn't like the Manuel pick, for sure, but Manuel was generally rated as the first or second best prospect in the draft, with Geno Smith. Then the Bills traded back in the draft before taking him. So the reaction of many people was, "good, you got the best QB in the draft and you got an extra pick out of the deal." JP, many people didn't like him, but he WAS the fifth rated QB in the draft and it was widely expected that he'd go in the bottom of the first or top of the second. I appreciated Donohoe's aggressiveness in going and getting him. People like this one less because in terms of draft capital, Allen was much more expensive. And, I think, people have bought all of the loud and repeated complaints about his accuracy and decision making. I don't remember the complaining about Manuel being that bad, but in part that was because the Bills didn't spend nearly as much in draft capital, and got change back. In other words, based on draft capital, the Bills risked more on him than on the others. I think that magnifies his potential shortcomings. I'm expecting Allen to be the best QB of the lot five years from now. I just have enormous confidence in McBeane. I think they really know what they're doing, and I think they know exactly what they're going to do with Allen.

This And this.

So you're saying Josh Allen will be the Michael Jordan of the NFL? Should I start on my Three-Peat Rockpile Review?

Thanks.

To your first point, I'd say it was just coincidence. Several teams were telling Allen they loved him; for some reason he just felt it would be Buffalo. Your second point is very interesting. Given Andy Reid's view of Mahomes, and how he's played in limited action, it certainly seems odd that they passed on Mahomes. There are explanations, like McD wanted the new GM to make the pick, not Whaley, but it also could be that McD saw Allen coming and wanted him. Plus, McD could see that Darnold and Rosen and Mayfield were coming, so in general it looked like a good year. Some teams DO fall in love with players early and continue to like them. If you're right, that's the kind of story that won't get told now; it'll get told after Allen wins a Super Bowl or two, and McDermott is reminiscing about the first time he saw Allen and how that day he made up his mind. Donahoe's similar story about Losman never gets told!

That's interesting. I think they have two models: The athletic freak they can get in round 1 and maybe round 2, and the smart, dedicated over-achiever they can get in the later rounds. That is, I think they value athleticism at the top of the draft and character every place else. Obviously, talent and character are issues throughout, but I think in later rounds the guy with character beats out similar guy with better measureables.

I don't know about Phillips - I don't study these guys. But from the little I've read, I think you're right. I'm finding myself having more and more confidence in McDermott and Beane. McDermott has a very highly defined sense of what he's doing. He knows what he can teach, and what he can't. He's kind of the opposite of Rex - Rex seemed to sit back and say "if you get me the right talent, I can win." Then he'd whine that he didn't have the right talent, the best players. Sean isn't looking necessarily for the best talent, although he loves it when he gets it. He's looking for guys who will work hard every day, commit to the team, and do what they're told. He's looking for over-achievers. He's looking for the Chris Hogans and Jim Leonards in the football universe. That, in turn, makes life easier for Beane. Beane knows he doesn't have to get the biggest, strongest, fastest, most athletic guy at each position. Instead, he can choose from any guys who have the minimum requirements for size, strength, speed and athleticism AND who have the right work ethic/team commitment. Rounds four through seven and the undrafted rookies is where Beane can find a lot of guys who will never be stars but will do what McDermott needs. I think Phillips is one of those guys. I think he has the brains and the heart to do what McD wants, and is physical limitations, the fact that he might be a bit of a tweener, won't be so important. And I think Beane will get more of those guys today. What I'm expecting is that the fans will be surprised in October and November how well holes have been plugged with rookies and guys who've spent the last two years on practice squads, getting called up for a game or two here or there. Then next year, some of the weaker guys who plugged holes will be replaced by first and second round picks and by some free agents. 2018 is pretty clearly year one of a two-year process. This year in idle moments McD will be wishing he had someone at this position and that position; next year he'll have his guys everywhere. That's what makes this year a test of McD's coaching ability. Talent-wise, he could have a 5-11 team. If he's a good coach (and if the QB position works out at least okay), he could be sniffing the playoffs. If he can do that, the 2019 Bills will be in position to make serious noise.

He could have, but someone had to offer it. The Bills are probably the only team that had the draft capital to make it happen, and I would be amazed if the Bills didn't at least talk to the Browns about it. Here's how it likely went: Bills call Giants and ask if they'd swap #2 for#12, #22 and next year's first (that was rumored to have happened). Giants say no. Giants say if you can get us #4, we can talk. Bills call Browns. Browns say we're not moving out of #4; we like it here. Bills say how about our two firsts for you #4. (Bills are thinking they can get the Giants to take #4 and next year's first.) Browns say no, we like being at #4; if you want us to move out of #4 you have to give us more, like maybe next year's first. That means the Bills have to give the Giants one or both of this year's seconds to move back two spots. At some point, it just got too expensive to the Bills. Remember, McDermott said that their plan this week was to find a way to get a QB and get Edmunds, which meant they'd probably have to trade up twice. Beane maintained his discipline; if he'd put together some kind of three-way deal with the Browns and Giants, he wouldn't have had enough capital left to trade up Edmunds. So he decided to wait, and if the opportunity arose, to trade up to 5, 6, 7 or 8 for the QB. That would leave him enough trade bait to Edmunds. It worked as he planned. Beane may have gotten his second choice QB - if he'd gotten to #2 he might have taken Darnold, but Edmunds was his consolation prize.