Shaw66

I'm a huge believer in McDermott. He is 100% sold on his process, and his process is continuous improvement. Daboll is still with team because McDermott believes that Daboll will continue to improve in his job; if there were a seriously better candidate out there to do what McDermott wants, McDermott would hire him. Or if McDermott believed that Daboll had maxed out, couldn't get better at his job, McDermott would have replaced him. McDermott isn't doing this on the buddy system. So, because I trust McDermott, I'm not worried about Daboll. And from a different perspective, I don't think any of us is in a position to understand whether Daboll is getting the job done or not. I think criticizing individual play calls is a losing proposition. I get it when people criticize play calling for a half or a game, as in asking why the Bills abandoned the run against Houston, but even in a case like that we don't know what the thinking was behind that. Daboll may have been sticking to their plan, a plan McDermott agreed with, and it just didn't work. Maybe it didn't work because they should have been calling something different. Maybe it didn't work because Allen's reads were bad. Maybe it didn't work because Houston's defense was better than the Bills' offense. McDermott expects every aspect of his team to be better next season, Allen and Daboll among them. If he succeeds, we will see a more successful team, and we'll be talking about how Allen improved, Daboll improved, Morse improved, etc. The point really will be that the TEAM improved, and because everyone was playing on a better team, pretty much all of the players will look like they improved. It's much more of a team game than we like to think, and McDermott takes much more of a team approach than the media would suggest. Now that I understand that, I'm actually less interested in free agency and the draft. McBeane are looking for guys to fit into the team much more than they are looking for players. The same is true for coaches, and that's why I'm not surprised Daboll still has a job.

I had a similar reaction. There's nothing much to argue with in the article, and I like the fact that he isn't telling us Allen is much better or much worse than his passer rating and his QBR. I don't need all the detail - if he's ranking 25th or so in those stats, he's not getting the job done. I like Old Time's comment, and Logic's. I think Allen doesn't have flaws so much as he has things he's still learning. And he has the attitude that gives me a high level of confidence that he will continue to improve. I continue to believe that by year 5 he will be one of the top QBs in the league, because he has all the physical skills necessary and he has the brains and attitude to get there. It just takes time. 2019 was better than 2018, and 2020 will be better still. And while Allen is improving, so too will the offensive line improve and (I hope) the receivers. Allen could be approaching the point where his receivers are limiting his ability to succeed (up until now, you couldn't really blame his mediocre performance on the receivers, but as he gets better, the receivers need to get better too).

There was a lot of unhappiness among fans when Byrd left. I forget who his agent was, but he was one of the guys known as making big demands and being difficult. The Bills GM at the time, whoever it was, said he had no problem with the agent, in fact he liked him. The reason was that the agent did his homework, came up with his estimate of what the player's market value was and told the Bills what he wanted. What the GM liked about it was that he knew right from the get go what the player was looking for, and the GM also knew if that number was at least close to what the Bills were willing to pay. If the numbers were far apart, there wasn't much sense in talking. I got the clear sense that that's what happened with Phillips. Agent said Phillips wants top dollar, his estimate of top dollar is X, and Beane knows he won't pay close to X. Maybe Phillips will find out he isn't worth X and there'll be room to talk later, but for now both sides understand there isn't much reason to waste time pretending they're negotiating. Seems like a pretty practical way to do business.

Yolo and House - I see it a little differently, although I agree with Yolo that White and Allen are in a different category than Phillips. Yolo is correct in part that Phillips will cost more than he's worth to the Bills, but there's another point, too. McBeane want guys from the beginning of their pro careers, plain and simple. That's why they always say they build through the draft and they plug holes in free agency. McDermott's approach builds value in the team by players accumulating knowledge year over year. A free agent, a good one, almost always is at best coming off his rookie contract, which means that, depending on his position, he may have only two or three more years in his prime, and then he begins to deteriorate physically. McDermott wants to take two or three years to teach players the system and THEN have them hit their prime, so he can have three to five years of a guy at the top of the game with a thorough understanding of the system. The result is that McBeane aren't interested in investing big bucks in free agents. Morse was an exception because he plays a position when he could have six or eight good years left - offensive linemen don't decline physically as fast as most other players. I agree with Yolo - unless White has something go haywire in this career, the Bills will do what it takes to keep him, and unless Allen sriously plateaus right where he is now and shows no signs of improving, they'll pay what it takes to keep him, too. Each of them will have three or four years of quality experience in McD's system when they hit their second contract, so they are incredibly valuable to McDermott.

Uh, "hometown discount" doesn't refer just to where the person grew up, and it doesn't have anything to do with the player's parents. Bleacher Report defines "hometown discount" this way: "a hometown discount is when a player takes a bit of a pay cut to play in the city that they grew up in, has family in, or is where they started their career." Brady is from California, but he gave the Patriots a hometown discount.

It's funny to listen to the fans talk about an issue like this. Does anyone think it's even remotely possible that Beane somehow doesn't know about compensatory picks? Like, he's an NFL GM and somehow he has a blind spot and doesn't understand the concept. In fact, Beane addressed this issue in a press conference after the season ended. He said, in so many words, that he expects to be a comp pick beneficiary in 2021, which is the first year when the roster will be good enough to create in other teams enough interest in the Bills' free agents. I thought his comment was interesting because it sounded like he thought it was a softball question. His answer essentially said "of course I have the comp pick situation under control, next question."

Right. Which is why it will stay the way it is. I said a few weeks ago, and I still believe it will happen, that Allen will give a hometown discount when he gets extended. I think McBeane will be selling and Allen will buy the concept that if he takes $3-4-5 million less per year, the team will be better. I know it sounds stupid to give up that kind of money but really, what's the difference between $25 million guaranteed for six years and $29 million? Either way after taxes, he's got something like $50 million in the bank for his future, and the opportunity for one more contract. In that dollar range, being on a winner is much more important than an extra few million in the bank. I think Allen will buy that idea, just like Brady did.

I agree. The point is, there are a lot of problems that get created when you start trying to control how much money someone can make, in any environment. The NFL does what the NBA first did - agree with the players what percentage of the revenue, as they choose to define it, will go to the players. That's what the salary cap does. How the teams choose to divide it up among their players is there business. Capping salaries for a position, or capping the highest possible salary, is really a question for the players' union. Do they want to agree among themselves to reduce the highest comps to increase the lowest? I'm with you. If I'm on any other team, I WANT the Chiefs to pay Mahomes a ton of money, so they'll have less for other teams. On the other hand, capping Mahomes at $20 million max may not be a good thing for the Chiefs long-term, because if Mahomes can make $20 million and no more, wherever he plays, he'll insist on a series of one-year deals, so he can leave KC for someplace else as soon as he sees a coach or a roster that his likes better. I really think how much these guys get paid is just a lot of noise that distracts people from football. Millions of people get paid more than they're worth, and millions or tens of millions more get paid less than they're worth. That's the way of the world.

If they cap the salaries, it just means the owners get richer. The players are workers in an industry that just happens to generate huge amounts of money. The players, being the people who make the league successful, have demanded and gotten a share of the profits. When the profits go up, the players' share, in terms of dollars, goes up. How would you like it if someone told you that you were making enough and no longer could get a raise? Why should the players be any different? Now, maybe the players' association might want to revise the contract to limit in some way the difference between the lowest paid and the highest paid players, which would indirectly cap the QB salaries. It would be something like no player on a team can make less than 1/20 of the highest paid player. That would mean that if the QB is making $20 million, the lowest paid guy would make $1 million. I suppose they could do something like that. But if I'm the QB, I'm asking the players' association what they're doing, because they're supposed to be representing me, and they're taking money from me. I don't worry about that stuff. I just watch the games. Well, they ARE struggling. Let's start a GoFundMe page for the players.

The picture says it all!

Some good names in this thread. Another name that doesn't quite meet the criteria is Kyle Williams. I'd have to say that if the Bills had Fred Jackson in 2019, they might have won the division and they would have beaten Houston in the wildcard game. Fred and Kyle were about the two best locker room guys the Bills ever had.

Stank, I'd bet there are new faces, good players, competing at every position. White is safe, but no one else.

A lot of good stuff in this thread. My take is that Allen is still learning. He definitely improved in his second season, and I think we will see more improvement next season. His reads on pass protections clearly need improvement. I think he gets rattled late in games when defenses come at him with things he doesn't recognize, and that should improve, too. But I think that the narrative that he and the defense choked in Houston is unfair. They didn't make the plays they needed to win, but they didn't choke. They held Houston to a three and out and drove to tie the game, then held them to a three and out in overtime and then drove for an opportunity to win the game. That's not choking. That's not finishing.

Thanks. Interesting response. I don't know that I was saying all the players are as I described, and you understood that. I like your points, and it dovetails with something I've been saying about players for a long time, which is that many of them are smarter than some posters give them credit for. The smart ones are smart at football and often smart at other life skills, including picking a mate. Still, good looking women seem to be found disproportionately among jocks, money and power. Just the way it is.

I was sitting at Hartford Whalers game one time and noticed, couldn't help but notice, that I was surrounded by 10 or 12 stunning young women, mostly blonde, all dressed in flashy clothes. It dawned on me that I sitting with the players wives and girlfriends. That's when it first occurred to me how natural it is for big time male athletes to have hot women. Both, for somewhat different reasons, are unusually focused on their bodies. They focus much more on their bodies than ordinary human beings do. It makes sense that people who are particularly focused on their bodies would come together as couples. And if they're unusually focused on their bodies, they look in mirrors a lot, and they take pictures of themselves. There's nothing more interesting to them than their bodies. So for them, it's natural to post those pictures - they love to look at them, so why wouldn't their friends? And, of course, it works for their friends, too. Who are their friends? Athletes and hot women. Collectively, they're a group of people interested in bodies.

Thanks - that's interesting. Hap - great question.

This true about the Oline, and it's a commentary about how bade the 2018 oline was, because 2019 was a serious improvement over 2018. in 2019 there were four new starters and a new offensive line coach. Between the draft, free agency, a second year of this unit together, there certainly ought to be improvement again in 2020.

McDermott is all about getting his team to play as near perfect football as possible. He's on track. I do t think he expected the 2019 be there yet, and the lost opportunities in that game were the evidence.

I agree with this. Whether Ford will be the RT will depend on wherhw McBeane like his intelligence, work ethic and attitude. He clearly has the physical ability to play the position, and rookie linemen often struggle. Bills certainly will upgrade the oline. Who they get will determine whether Ford will move to guard.

I think it will happen. I don't know what to expect as for actual numbers, and we will never know, but I expect Allen will stay with the Bills and will take less than the best contract that he could have gotten. I think Allen values team, values the environment Buffalo and the fans offer, values the kind of approach to the game and life that McD teaches and lives. I think he values the owners, too. I'm convinced he'll stay in Buffalo. As for adjustments to the CBA, that's very interesting. It makes some sense to separate QB contracts out of the general salary cap, since those salaries so far out of line with all the other positions. But I kind of like the way it is - if you want to blow your wad on the QB, that's your privilege - you just have to figure out how to put together the rest of the team with the money you have left. In fact, I think that QB salaries for many of the best guys will be controlled for just the reasons that I think Allen's will - QBs will recognize they're all becoming incredibly rich, and it just doesn't make that much difference to be the highest paid. Take Goff, for example. A guy who extends his rookie deal early probably is leaving money on the table. It's hard to know, because he never reached the free agent market, but I have to think he took less than his agent told him was his max value in exchange for the security of a longer term deal and for the opportunity to continue with a coach and in a system that he thinks is good for him.

Actually, I think Beane has said things like this before, and McDermott has acknowledged it. What they describe is a healthy tug-of-war on issues, with an agreement that McDermott will work with the players Beane gives him and Beane will accept that McDermott will run the team, even to the extent of being able to release players that McD really doesn't want around. The joined-at-the-hip notion comes from their repeated statements that they work together, that they share the same fundamental objectives and understanding about what makes a team great. The working relationship they describe is one that requires honesty, mutual respect and a commitment to move forward together, always. (Like a successful marriage.) They're committed to that. Might it fail, come undone? Sure, it might. But McDermott for sure, and I think Beane too, is a guy who makes lifetime commitments. McD's commitments are to God, his family, personal honesty and excellence. I think in his head, and perhaps spoken, he has a career-long commitment to the Pegulas. The model that he and Beane are pursuing is a model for long-term excellence with honor. He won't sell out for money or for short-term success. He has almost a maniacal commitment to success the right way. As for Beane's comments generally, I think we can see again the emphasis on sustainability. He's not in a hurry to get to the top; his focus is building something that he can keep on the top. So he talks about managing the contracts in a way that he's always able to build, recognizing that as they get good they will begin to lose guys they would like to keep. He's not going to write big checks and make big splashes in free agency, because the guys he really wants are rookies who grow into keepers. Frankly, I think the most interesting thing he said is about franchise quarterbacks. I've always at least wondered if McBeane aren't actively trying to get in Allen's head about his next contract. Beane pretty clearly says here that he's going to pay a franchise quarterback (that's one message he's sending Allen - "you keep growing, we're keeping you at your price"), but he's also sending a subtle message to Allen ("if you're taking every last nickel, we won't be able to build the team around you as well as you and we would like. So think about whether the best price for you is really the highest price you can get."). It's almost as though he's explaining it to Allen. You can be sure that somehow the Bills' front office is saying to Allen "we're working on building a long-term winner like New England. One aspect of the Patriots' success was Brady's willingness to leave some money on the table because he knew he'd be plenty wealthy for life even at a reduced rate. That's what we're going to need from you. Keep it in mind over the next couple of years, as you see this team get better around you." We all know it intuitively, but think about QB compensation for a minute. Allen has a four-year guaranteed deal at $21 million. His option year is another $6 million or more. So that's $27 million in five years. If he gets good franchise QB money for the next ten years, that's $30 million a year, or $300 million. Plus his rookie contract, and even modest endorsements, he makes $350 over 15 years. Say he pays half of that in taxes, he has $175 million left. Say he spends $1 million a year living. He has $160 million left in the bank, or enough to have $5 million a year to live on for the rest of his life. If he takes, say, $20 milliion a year on his next contract, leaving $10 million for Beane to buy other players, he makes $250 million over 15 years, or $125 after tax. Spend a million a year and he has $110 million to live on for the rest of his life, or $3.5 million a year. And, of course, if McBeane are right in what they are doing, Allen will win multiple bowls, be on lots of Wheaties boxes and earn extra dough on the endorsement trail, but forget about that. And also, the numbers are better than that. Franchise QBs are going to do better than $30 million, and all the extra money, even from his rookie contract, is invested and growing at 5% or more. The point is that even if Allen gives the Bills a serious discount in order to build the team, Allen's going to be ridiculously wealthy. What Beane is saying to Allen is this: "How much is winning worth to you? What's important to you, winning or having a bigger bank account that you never, ever will spend?" Everything about what McBeane do is about team, and they're going to be telling Allen that his comp is about team, too. I think that's a message that will resonate with Allen. I think McD is building an emotional bond with Allen that will keep Allen in Buffalo for Allen's career, and that will cause Allen to take less than his market value. That will give the Bills an edge over teams with a great franchise QB who is getting paid as much as he can negotiate.

I'm no expert, but as I've said before, I don't think Allen has mechanical problems. I think he just has recognition problems. When he isn't rushed, he's generally fine. I expect to see continued improvement in his accuracy and consistency as his understanding of the game improves. I think Jackson has actual mechanical problems - he doesn't have a classic throwing motion, and I agree with those who think think that significant mechanical problems are hard to fix. So I think you and I just disagree a bit on this.

No doubt. But the arm is a serious advantage or put another way, Jackson has to be a nearly all-time great field general to over come his throwing limitations. I think it's interesting how the press continues to overlook DeShaun Watson. He runs nearly as well as Jackson, and he is one major-league thrower. He's the guy I think Allen will be chasing, not Jackson.

That's a good short answer. However, I believe that the difference in their current limitations makes it more likely that Allen will have the better career. Jackson won't run like that forever. Russell Wilson doesn't run as well as he used to. Injuries and defensive strategies will catch up with Jackson. They both will have to learn to be field generals. Let's assume they learn to be as good running offenses as Brady and Rodgers and Brees. If they do, Allen will have a very large edge over Jackson: his ability to throw any kind of pass, more or less any time. Jackson doesn't have the arm, and there's nothing he can do about that.

Could Wade be a gunner?