Shaw66

I don't know rugby at all, but what you say is consistent with something I read about him last summer, which was that he was a pure outside threat but primarily because of his size he couldn't defend larger players well enough to be a top player. A little bit like being a small point guard who, unless you're John Stockton, becomes more of a liability than asset because you're getting posted up all the time. On defense in the NFL his size would be a liability, too, but unlike rugby, he doesn't have to go both ways here.

Exactly. I know your point is that you don't want two backs with the same style, but I've never but that theory. I don't care a lot about Singletary's size. He runs inside and he runs outside; that's all you need. Wade looked like he had first class speed and moves. I'll take first class speed and moves in my backup running back. That would have been better than what Gore and Yeldon gave the Bills. Not saying Wade could have played in 2019; just saying those characteristics would have been fine in a backup. Darren Sproles was an ideal backup for a lot of years. No substitute for speed. Small guys need to be tough, but Wade seems to check that box, too. So I'm waiting to see how much he gets on the field this summer. He had all year to learn, and the most learning happens in the first year, so who knows how close he might be? Yolo - thanks for the Wade interview. He seems to think he can compete.

Thanks. So let's see what the summer brings. Small running backs are in; maybe he's one.

Is that true? I thought the extra PS spot was a one-year deal. A two-year deal, as Ghost says it is, makes more sense for the host team, since it was a good bet that none of these guys was going to make a roster in the first season. Why take a guy into camp who has no shot, only to lose him after a season, when he finally might mature into something. Still, I thought that if the Bills don't put him on the 53 in 2020, if the Bills keep he's a regular practice squad player.

Okay, Dawg, here we go again, you and me against the world. Last year it was Duke (who I still have hopes for next season); now it's Wade. You took the words right out of my mouth. Why is it that the position that rookies can succeed in from day one is running back? Because it's fundamentally a position that requires speed and instinctual skills. Learn pass protection and learn to a half dozen receiving routes and you're good to go. He's clearly shown the raw physical talent. He's had an entire training camp, preseason and regular season to work in the system. He could have another training camp and presseason to polish what he knows. By September 1, 2020, he should have learned enough. The question is simply whether he's good enough. He'll have plenty of opportunity to show what he can do in preseason games. (Well, maybe less if the preseason schedule is shortened.) Just like with Duke, I'm waiting to see what the summer brings.

They and you are working with a incorrect definition of the term. Sophomore slumps suggests that there is something about the sophomore year that causes performance to decline from the freshman year. That is, if the sophomore slump was caused by being in the second year, all players would suffer a sophomore slump, or at least most. The data in the linked article demonstrates that in fact most QBs improve in their second season. That suggests there is no slump. The fact that the rookie QBs with the best rookie years tend to regress in the second year is a statistical reality. It's called regression to the mean. A few of the best QBs as rookies are just really good, and their second season is fine. But for most rookies, if they have a good first season, it's aberrational. As a statistical matter, their performance is expected to fall. In exactly the same way, if your rookie stats are below average, as a matter of statistics, your performance in your second year is expected to improve. Josh Allen didn't have a sophomore slump. In other words, it goes without saying that high performing rookies are likely to perform less well in their second seasons, just like low performing rookies are likely to perform better. It doesn't have anything to do with it being the second season.

This is sort of what I said in an earlier post. People who are looking for fun city to live in have their eye on the wrong ball, and McBeane aren't interested in those guys. One other thing. When free agents talk to Kelly and some of the others, what they hear is that this is a city where you can be a hero for life. You become part of the fabric of the city. Now, Brees did that in NO, but that was a special circumstance. In Buffalo, like in Green Bay, you're never forgotten.

This, sort of. A guy who has the mental makeup, the competitiveness, the dedication, the willingness to improve year after year, is not going to be deterred because of how he views Buffalo. He's going to Buffalo to be part of what McBeane are doing. A guy whose decision is going to be controlled by how the city compares to others or the taxes or the money is not the kind of guy McBeane are looking for, and I'm okay with that. They want guys who WANT to be there.

Agreed. What he needs is to be on the growth curve (I think he is) to being like Brady in this regard. Brady always seems to have all of the important considerations in mind as he making decisions on the field. He knows down and distance, time remaining, play call, defensive tendencies, everything in his head as he's looking over the field, pre-snap and post-snap. He knows a punt is a good thing, and he knows a turnover is a really bad thing. He's willing to accept a non-productive down rather than risk something bad happening in an effort to make something good happen. He understands that not every play works, that the defense makes plays, too. By staying focused, he has all of those parameters running in his head as he's deciding to not throw here, not there, okay, throw to that guy. And he's comfortable doing all of that so that the noise in his head doesn't affect his throwing motion - when he throws, he leaves all of that stuff behind and he's locked into making the throw correctly. His focus leaves the decision making realm and flips instantly to making precisely the throw that's necessary. We saw games where Allen did this consistently. The Cowboys game was one - the Cowboys are, I think, pretty simple defensively, and Allen seemed well prepared and comfortable looking over the defense. That allowed him to maintain his focus throughout the game, and stay effective throughout the game. But as you say, in the Baltimore game he seemed to get flustered, the things he knew or expected to be able to do weren't there, and the quality of his play suffered. Focus comes along with learning more and experiencing more. To say focused, you have to stay calm. It's easier to stay calm if you understand what you're looking at. It's easier to stay calm in the face of a blitz or a free rusher if you understand what's happening and you understand what the options are. The best option may be to throw the ball away, get hit, get off the ground and go back to the huddle. If you stay calm in the face of that, you're calm and able to focus on the next play. But if you get flustered by the pass rush, then you may be hurried in the huddle, uncomfortable at the line for the next play, and then you start piling problems on problems. We saw some of that this season, and that's something Allen has to grow out of.

You've focused on focus, just as I did. I think you've said it well. As for Daboll, there's no reason to believe that he won't improve, as well. If he has an identifiable weakness, such as, as you say, situational awareness (which also is focus, said in a different way), that's something that can be improved on. Not saying he WILL improve - only time will tell that. But I think it's a mistake to think that he won't get better, just as it's a mistake to think Allen won't get better.

I think your entire analysis is generally correct (I'd quibble here and there), but it was your last sentence that reminded me of what we're looking at. For all the reasons you give - Allen surviving and improving significantly through two years, Beane's ability to add talent, etc., the Bills should take another step forward in 2020. And it's a step forward from a playoff-caliber team that easily could have won 12 games in 2019. It's a new era, one we haven't seen in 30 years.

I generally balk when I hear people talk about his consistency. I think all that is a description of the fact that sometimes he does things right and looks great, and other times he does them wrong. He doesn't do things right consistently. If that's what you mean, I agree. I tend to think of it as he loses focus. When he's focused on what he's supposed to do, he's deadly. When he loses focus, he just reacts to whatever is happening on the field, and he executes more poorly. He makes an inaccurate throw because he isn't focused on doing it the way he knows he can. He takes a sack because he isn't focused on the bigger picture and the unimportance of any one play. I don't think his poor play is a function of bad habits that need to be broken. He's mechanically a good thrower, he's a good field general, he's a good runner. He just needs to learn to stick to what his job is at any given moment. He needs better focus on what is important in the moment, and that will make him more consistent.

I agree with this, too, and the post you quoted. As for Wyoming, although Allen may have had pretty good coaches, there's another aspect of that experience that held him back, and that is the overall quality of the talent around him and the opposition. A team like Wyoming pretty much never gets coached up like Ohio State, because (1) the coaches tend to coach to the level of the overall talent on the team, and (2) the opponents are generally not so sophisticated that the offense has to be really polished. So day after day, a QB in a program like that is being held to a lower standard than players in more sophisticated programs. The result is that a guy like Allen has seen less coming out of college than a Mayfield or a Darnold. Put another way, the increase in expectations at the pro level over college was greater for Allen than for some others, because there's no denying he was playing a lower college level than some guys. In my mind, Allen has closed the gap already (he outperformed Darnold and Mayfield this season). Now we're going to begin to see the difference that comes from being bigger, stronger, faster, smarter with a bigger arm than those other guys.

I generally agree with all of this. I think you're right in part about the fumbles. I do think it's definitely not straight line - fumbles with experienced QBs generally happen when they are completely surprised,and that happens at any time in your career, but they still happen. But I think it happens less to veterans, because they aren't surprised as often. So that's one aspect of how experience and how learning helps them. The other thing they learn are the techniques you were talking about, so they're less likely fumble when they are surprised. Still, as you say, there's some randonness to it, and even the best are not going to be fumble-free. I was more interested in your abilty to focus on little, technical aspects of playing that need to be mastered. As I said, Allen has dozens of those he's working on, and if he's good as I think he is, he'll just continue to knock them off. This is only tangentially related, but there's something I've been thinking about for a while, and I'll drop it in here. I've said all along that physically, Allen is most like Elway. Not actually a real running back, but big enough, strong enough and fast enough to be a running threat. Spectacular arm. So I looked the other day at Elway's passing stats. In particular, I looked at where he ranked in passer rating. So get this: starting with his rookie year, Elway was 27th in the league in passer rating, then 17th, 17th, 13th, 11th, 18th, 17th, 14th, 19th, 20th, 3rd, 4th, 14th, 4th, 7th, 5th. I might have missed one along the way, but the picture is very clear. Now, you can argue about the quality of the coaching and the quality of his teammates, but I think these numbers make it pretty clear that Elway was learning how to play quarterback, and it didn't really all come together for eight or ten years. ' I think Allen is more dedicated and less stubborn than Elway (talk about hero ball!), so I don't think it's going to take Allen ten years. Allen is like Elway in that both were unpolished coming out of college. Elway was spending as much time on baseball as football, and Bill Walsh wasn't the head coach at Stanford then, so Elway at Stanford (although more talented) was like Fitzpatrick at Harvard - best athlete they'd ever seen at QB for a school of really smart people. After watching Allen this season, and seeing him make progress steadily but not knock it out of the park, I think the Elway comparison continues to make sense. When he really learns the game, just like when Elway really learned the game, he's going to be tough to beat. Great arm, big guy, intense competitor, smart guy.

Hap - I think you're actually focused here on a bigger issue that helps us see in detail what it means for a QB to learn, grow and mature. You're right about these three things, and if you could get inside the Bills, you would find that there are twenty or thirty or fifty more details like this that are on a formal or informal list of details where Allen needs improvement. Each young QB has a list (well, except maybe Mahomes, who seems mature beyond his years, but let's see what the next few years bring). The list includes little mechanical items, it includes things about about pre-snap defensive alignments, it includes things like deciding when to throw the sideline pass and when the corner is sitting on it, it includes mechanics on deep balls, and mechanics when he's rolling right or left. The list is also about awareness and being in the moment. So when you look at a Rodgers or a Brees, you can see the full package. They've learned not to fumble, in part because they've been taught and learned good mechanics in holding onto the ball, but they've also developed more complete and nearly instantaneous awareness of what's going on around them, so they know when the fumble-moments are coming or have arrived. When a young QB has learned and internalized most of these little lessons, like the ones you're talking about, and he's developed awareness, then he starts getting good, because he can look for and see smaller opportunities, and he can decide in an instant the risk-reward of that opportunity and whether to pull the trigger. And when you see that it's that kind of ongoing learning and practice, the kind of dedication that allows you to get better at smaller and smaller details, more obscure points, little tricks, you can see why McDermott puts so much emphasis on players who are competitive, who want to work, and who are interested in learning. McDermott doesn't want a QB who stops learning. He wants Allen to get better every day, every game, every season. That's why Belichick and Brady are such a good match - Brady always wants to get better, and Belichick always has something more to teach him. And that's why I have so much confidence that Allen's going to be a star. Allen is going to continue to improve, year after year, improve in the mental game and in the physical game. His physical skills, especially his speed and running ability, may decline, but his throwing won't - it'll improve for another five years, and his knowledge of the game will continue to improve because he's smart and a dedicated learner. We had a little discussion earlier about whether we were disappointed in Allen's progress in 2019 - I was and you weren't, and I'm not sure about how you feel about the future, but I'm about as sure as I could be. Allen is going to be a stud QB for many years. And I think that if McBeane were candid, they'd tell you they know already they're extending Allen and paying him whatever they have to pay him. The only way that doesn't happen would be if somehow Allen we really blew up in 2020 and had a really serious regression, throwing more INTs than TDs, something like that. But I think he's already past that - I think he's just a good young QB on the road to greatness. How much greatness is yet to be determined, but he's a keeper.

The thing that is so encouraging about the Bills is they could have 12 games in 2019. They tanked the Pats and Jets games to end the season, with plain vanilla game plans and, against the Jets, most of the skill position starters on the sidelines. They could have beaten the Pats the first time, and they could have beaten the Ravens. The Bills actually aren't very far from being a really successful team. What's interesting about the Bills, and something that some of us may always find disappointing, is the Bills are becoming one of the least-flashy good teams in the league. They play aggressive defense, but it's fundamentally bend-don't-break. They want a balanced attack, and they'll win running the ball if they can. I've always said they want to be built like the Patriots are built, but they want to look like the 49ers. We can talk about Josh bombing away and 300-yard passing games and all of that, but that isn't what McD are building. If they stumble on a Tyreek Hill or a Julio Jones, they're going to hurt people with the guy, but they are not going to build the offense around him. Other than quarterback and maybe middle linebacker, they don't need a superstar. They want 22 guys doing their jobs, all of them making plays, and a few of them (and it really doesn't make much difference which position) being real studs. They want a few Bosas and Joneses, but they don't really care which positions they play. And they won't pay really big dollars for very many of those guys.

Sorry - typing on my phone together with no proofreading. I expected he'd be a top 20 passer and he wasn't. I think the sophomore slump is a myth. It may have been real 50 years ago, but I don't think you see guys regress from their first season very often. In any event, Josh didn't have a slump. He was clearly better in his second season than his first. He improved, for sure, just not as much as I had hoped.

Yes, he took serious strides. I'm not disappointed, but I expected more. I expected he would be a top-20 passer.

It's really nice to hear this stuff about Allen. Whether it turns out to be accurate is an open question. I was a bigger believer in Allen a year ago than I am now. He struggled more in 2019 than I thought he would. We'll see what 2020 brings. Yeah, that's what I said. They will stick to their discipline. Their plan is to draft stars, not sign them as free agents. If Beane writes a big check, it's going to be for someone on the oline or the defensive front seven.

Well, that's not the approach the McBeane take, I don't think, but I agree with your vision. I mean, if his head is screwed on straight, I'd write a great big check to Amari Cooper. Plug him in with the two the Bills have - by doing that you're #1 becomes a #2 and your #2 becomes a #3, and watch Josh go to town. I mean, there will be an open receiver on every play.

So I gather you're a nihilistic contrarian. I don't know exactly what that is, but I know I like it! Thanks for the nice discussion. I get that you're dubious. I am too. We keep talking about the Ravens, and after reading several of you folks here discussing it, I'm as troubled as you that Daboll didn't have better answers. And abandoning the running game against the Texans really bothered me. SoI'm on board with everyone else in the sense that Daboll hasn't been good enough. But, as you say, Beane and McD seem to think that we haven't seen the best of Daboll yet. I think they'd tell you it's a combination of talent, experience and Daboll's growth. The talent needs to be better, the young players who have played for the past year or two have to keep growing and get deeper into Daboll's system, and Daboll needs to be better at scheming and play calling. The way McDermott's process works is that it doesn't simply say to everyone "get better." The process exams everyone's performance and identifies particular aspects of how they did the job that need to change. The process identifies not only what needs to change; it also generates specific ideas about how to change. I think McDermott expects Daboll to be materially better next year. Sorry I responded to a point you didn't make. You did say, however, that those QBs were ruined, and my point was that I don't believe that QBs are ruined. I believe that if you have what it takes to be a franchise QB, you make it. David Carr maybe is the one example of a potential franchise QB being ruined. But JP, EJ and Trent were not ruined by their offensive coordinators. There was and is no environment in the modern NFL where they would have been a franchise guy. That tells me that I'm not as troubled as you if Daboll has been giving Josh more than he can handle. Josh has shown no signs of being ruined, so far as I can see. He's just getting better, he's learning. I do think, as I've said, that there is a good chance that the Bills have sacrificed short-term success for long-term growth with their dedication to the process. Asking Allen to handle the entire offense, rather that dialing it back, and particularly rather being more focused on the run, may be one example of that. As I've said several times, I'm happy to be patient with the process because so far it has accomplished what McBeane told us it would. That tells me McDermott knows what he's doing, even if we're sitting out here scratching our heads wondering what's going on.

Good teams don't fire their OCs, so good teams don't hire new OCs. McDermott and Daboll had no history together whatsoever when the Bills hired him. What buddy, nepotism are you talking about? Why can't you accept the simple fact that McDermott sees what Daboll is doing and thinks that Daboll is the right guy for the job?

I agree. Being a fan often brings with it an odd mentality. You (not you, Hap, but the generic fan) want so desperately for your team to be good that you take it as a personal affront when it isn't good immediately, no matter where you've come from or what the strategy is that's being applied to get good. What you see is McVeigh winning instantly in LA and you ask why the Bills can't do that? At least that's what you ask in 2018, and in 2019 when the Rams go 9-7 and don't make the playoffs you stop talking about them and start in with the Titans. It's hard for some to recognize that there are different personalities, different styles, different approaches and different arrays of inherited personnel that cause every situation to be different from your situation. For me, I'm okay if what I'm seeing from the team is consistent with what the coach is telling me about his approach to getting good. In this case, we are seeing pretty much exactly what McBeane told us we'd get, and it's improving from year to year, as they said, so that makes me willing to be patient. My recollection of Jauron was that, without exactly throwing his current players under the bus, he seemed to be saying every year that he needed better players. Well, he was in the job for three and half or four years, and you'd think that along the way he would have stumbled across some better players. So in his case, what we were seeing on the field was consistent with what he was telling us - despite the opportunity to improve talent for several years, the play on the field didn't get better. Rex the same thing. In both cases, I was pretty unhappy by the time they left. I'm not unhappy today.

Wow, you've really gotten yourself going about this stuff. I think you're confusing two or three different points, and I'm not sure what your actual point is. First, I've never bought the notion that QBs are "ruined" by being thrown into the fire too early. It's absurd, in my mind, to say that Trent Edwards, JP Losman and EJ Manuel were "ruined" because they didn't get more time on the bench. There wasn't anything anyone was going to do to make any one of those guys franchise QBs. Troy Aikman wasn't ruined, Peyton Manning wasn't ruined, John Elway wasn't ruined by starting early. So I don't agree with anything you say about that. Second, the fact that Peterman and Anderson didn't succeed in the Daboll's complicated system doesn't prove that running the system is wrong - it proves that it takes time to learn to run the system. It simply may be the case that any young QB is going to struggle in his system for a while, and any old mediocre QB is going to struggle in it. Now, there's a real discussion to be had about whether it would be better to layer on the levels of complexity as your QB masters one level after another. It doesn't seem that Daboll has done that, and at least based comments I remember, McDermott doesn't believe that's the right approach. He has said often that he has a scheme and he gives his players that scheme to run and he expects them to grow into it. You can argue that that's the wrong approach, and I'm sure there are coaches who go about it differently, and I certainly can't prove that you're wrong, but I also don't believe it's possible to prove you're right, either. In any case, I don't think McDermott is going to ruin Josh Allen doing it this way. And because I don't think you can ruin Josh Allen by playing him, I think it's irrelevant whether Allen was more NFL ready than Darnold or Rosen or Mayfield. So what? That isn't a reason to sit him. And, by the way, if those guys were more NFL ready (and, by the way, based on his college experience, Lamar Jackson definitely was NOT NFL ready), throwing Allen into the fire seems to have worked, because after two NFL seasons Allen is the best of the top four prospects. I think the big, fundamental, philosophical difference one can have with what it seems McDermott is doing with the offense is that he seems to be sacrificing, perhaps unnecessarily, short-term success for long-term success. I think what critics like you really are saying is that McDermott, Daboll and Beane could have done more to make the offense more effective. Some of that, and the real point of this discussion, is that Daboll should have but wasn't able to accomplish more. His critics are saying he's been an OC for a long time, and if he wasn't able to do any better in 2019 with what he had, that's pretty good evidence he just isn't good enough. That is, he's no different than the corner back who just isn't fast enough or the quarterback whose arm just isn't strong enough. That's a judgment that McDermott and Beane have to make, and it seems they've made it for this year. It seems that they believe that Daboll can learn to do all that he should be doing, and that it's a good investment to work with him another year. On that final point, I have to admit that you and others have raised a lot of good points suggesting Daboll just isn't up to the challenge. A lot of it sounds right to me. I also have a lot of respect for McDermott, his judgment, and his willingness to make hard decisions, and what McDermott is saying to us is that Daboll is a guy he can build with. That's enough for me to decide just to be patient and go with it for another year.

There's a lot to be said for this perspective. When all else fails, what can we go back to that we know will work? I thought that was the short passing game early in the season, but it dried up.