Shaw66

Bills were the worst offense featured this year, in both point AND yards. Of course we should be disappointed, but that doesn't mean the coaches and players are screw ups. They just weren't good enough. Every team that lost this weekend looks at their playoff game and is disappointed.

Um, as I explained elsewhere, going for it on 4th and 27 actually gave the Bills two shots at tying or winning the game, and it worked. On the second shot, tied the game. Um, despite all of the these egregious coaching errors you perceive, the Bills were in position to kick the winning field goal until a pretty horrible call by the officials. All of this with mediocre offensive line talent, mediocre receiver talent, and a young quarterback. Sure, MIlano didn't make a play. Hopkins got shut out in the first half. The nature of the game is that each player gets beat sometime. The reality, the bottom line, is that the Bills aren't as good as the Texans, or weren't on Saturday. That does not mean in any way that McDermott, his coaches or his players should be indicted or condemn. Collectively, they weren't good enough. Collectively, there are things they wish today they had done differently. The Patriots feel EXACTLY the same way today. So do the Saints and the Eagles. If the refs don't stick Ford with that penalty and Hauschka kicks the field goal, 90% of the whining we're hearing today, whining about McDermott and Daboll and Allan and Milano, wouldn't be here. We'd be celebrating Allen's incredible drive to tie the game, the incredible stop that preceded the drive, the wisdom of sticking with Hausch money, etc. etc. etc.

I can't. I think that coaches generally have the same objectives, objectives that we hear from McDermott. Team first, love your teammates. Work every day to get better. One day at a time, one play at a time. That stuff is the same. McDermott is clearly a devotee of the Japanese management processes - Sygma 6 and Kaizen, and probably some similar stuff I haven't hear of. Some other coaches are doing that too, but I don't know how many are doing it. Those processes seek continuous improvement - clearly part of McD's approach, and elimination of mistakes, also a McD value. Those processes have a proven track record. They worked pretty well for Toyota. How many NFL coaches are committed to those principles, I don't know. The question is which coaches, if any, can make the process translate into wins in the NFL. The reason I'm optimistic about McDermott is that he has fierce determination and will not quit. It's that attitude that drives the Japanese processes - a relentless pursuit of improvement. At the core of McDermott's process is getting players who are willing to commit to the process with the kind of determination that McDermott has brought to everything in his life for 30 years. That's why he and Beane have been clear that they look first for guys with the appropriate character traits. They picked Allen, for example, because he demonstrated that kind of commitment to competition, work and improvement.

I have enormous respect for what those coaches know. Although it's possible, I'm virtually certain that there is NO ONE posting on this board whose knowledge about football approaches in any meaningful way the knowledge of any professional football head coach or coordinator, including me. I think football insiders like them laugh at the notion that we understand the game in anything like the way understand it. It's fun to talk about, but we're just talking.

No. Did you have specific reasons three years ago that were going to happen to put the Chiefs, the Ravens or the Titans in your top five? Almost certainly not, and even if you picked them, you didn't pick them because you foresaw Mahomes and Jackson and Vrabel. NFL football is constantly changing, and what wins this season isn't necessarily what wins in three years. The difference between you and me is that you don't see it happening today, so you conclude that it won't happen in the future. I understand that the NFL is constantly changing, and that there are different ways to win. When I see a franchise making process, I don't write them off because they aren't yet a finished product yet.

Well, first, they've really completed only two full years of rebuild. Year one was mostly tear down, and Beane has had only two drafts. But your question is a good one. Next, I think you have to understand the process. This collection of players learned a lot of things this season about how to play together. The process requires that they carry those things forward into next season, and that they build on that knowledge. The process requires that knowledge builds and builds from season to season. The defensive will evolve, but the base defense will be the same. The offense will evolve, but the base offense will be the same. That's what the Patriots have done, and that's what makes them able to keep adjust their game - over two decades they've dealt with every kind of opponent, and they've grown year after year. So, a second part of the Bills' improvement is going to come from overall team growth. Players will improve. It's a really young roster, and players improve in this league. They are not finished products after their first or second season in the league. A guy like Cody Ford, for example, almost certainly will be better in his second season than his first. Then, you have the fact that the Bills have a lot of cap room and ten draft picks. They're going to have to begin to make some hard choices, because they'll need money for Allen and Edmunds and others, but still, they have cap money. I don't expect the Bills to attack free agency the say way in 2020 as in 2019. Last year they wanted to retool the offensive line, so they signed 9 or 10 offensive linemen and figured they'd find enough serviceable guys to improve the line. It worked. But this off-season will be different. I expect that the Bills will acquire a free agent starting offensive lineman, and I wouldn't be surprised if they also draft an offensive lineman who starts as a rookie. That is, I expect one or two new offensive line starters next season. There will be one new starting wide out. There will be a couple of new linebackers who get significant playing time. There'll be some change on the Dline. Why all these changes? Because the process demands competition. The process demands that guys come in and fight for their jobs. One final thing: Three years ago, you wouldn't have had the Titans, Ravens or Texans on your list of teams at the top of the AFC, the teams to beat. Three years from now, the chances are half or more of your five teams won't still be there. Things change. It's a process. It's not a star system. It's a team system. So I don't think position by position comparisons are meaningful, and I don't agree about coaches. I don't think there's any way to know how good McDermott will be - he's still learning. I don't think Harbaugh is better now, let alone ten years from now. You don't even mention O'Brien. Reid, I love, but I'm guessing he's retiring one of these days. In other words, I think the Bills have in place a process that can take them to the very top of the game. That doesn't mean they WILL do that, but there's nothing in the way.

No brainer. Metcalfe already has outperformed his draft projection. His hands are better than advertised, and his size is great. If he'd been in Buffalo this season, we would have been spared a hundred Duke Williams threads, because Metcalfe would have playing and Brown and Beasley would have been fine. Hindsight is 20-20. Plus, Ford may well turn out to be a very good lineman for a long time. If you get a good player in the draft, it doesn't matter so much that you might have done better with someone else.

I agree about all of this. And yes, the Process DOES apply to McD and his staff. McBeane have said so. McD is a believer in the process for everyone. Whether the Process is working on the coaches is a different question.

Me too. Where I agree with you is that what we've seen from him isn't nearly good enough. Where I disagree is that we're looking at another JP or EJ. He's already beyond them, and growing. How far he grows, we'll have to wait and see. Here's one other thought: I would feel even better about Allen's future if McDermott fired Daboll. Not because I think Daboll is doing a bad job; I really don't know enough about football to know whether Daboll is any good and likely to get better. But if McDermott fired him, that would tell me that part of Allen's problems this year were OC problems, not Allen. I don't expect that happen. If Daboll is gone, it would be because he took a HC job. I'd be surprised if that happened, but I've been surprised before. If he doesn't get a HC job, I think McD keeps him and works with him to get improvement out of him.

Of course you saw those things from Josh. You're gonna see those things from virtually every QB who is the 24th rated passer in the league. However, in my opinion, to say that 27 starts into his career Josh looks anything like JP or EJ is simply foolish. 27 starts into his career EJ Manuel's career was over - he never got that many starts, because he failed before then. 27 starts into his career, Losman's was effectively over. To compare Josh Allen with those guys is absurd. Today, Allen has major upside potential and the other two, at the same points in their careers, had demonstrated that they had NO upside.

One reason I'm so optimistic is that it's a team game. The cumulative effect of improvement across the offensive lineup and in the coach should be bigger than the actual improvement of any particular person. What I mean is that I expect Josh Allen to be significantly better next season, but the statistical improvement will be only partially attributable to his improvement from this season to next season. If the Bills do upgrade the oline, and I think that that will happen because they will bring in one or two new starters and because at least Ford will be better than this season, then Allen's rushing attack will be better, making play action more effective. His pass protection will be better. Allen would have been better, statistically, this season if he'd had those advantages. So next season he'll have the luxury of those improvements, plus however much he grows, plus however much Daboll's tinkering with offense improves things. They're all young and growing. McDermott too. So I expect Josh to be a lot better, but not simply because he has made strides.

No question about that.

I agree that if Allen doesn't improve next season over this season, there will be doubts. I was reacting to the notion that he isn't showing more that EJ or JP showed. That's ridiculous. He runs better, he passes better, he leads better. My objective for this season was to get within the top 20 in passer rating. He finished 24th, and say what you will about the receivers and the oline, Allen didn't do as well as I hoped. My objective for next year, going into this season, was top 10. That's going to require a big leap, but I don't mind if he doesn't get there. The objective for 2019 was a meaningful improvement over 2018, and we got that. If we see a meaningful improvement again in 2020, I'm good.

I argued for the Bills to sign Cousins. I was wrong. I'll take Josh all day.

Where do people come up with this crap? Went into a shell? What are you talking about? From the point the Bills went up 16-0 to the end of regulation, the Bills ran 25 plays from scrimmage. 19 passes and 6 runs, including Josh's scrambles as runs. What about that offensive play selection is "going into a shell"? The Bills went for it on 4th and 27 with less than two minutes to play. That's "going into a shell"? That's just nonsense.

Oh, my heavens. In JP's third year in Buffalo, he had a passer rating of 85 and never got close again. He went 7-9 in that season and had only 3 other wins in his career. In EJ's second season in Buffalo he had a passer rating of 80 and never got close again. After his second season in Buffalo, Josh Allen improved to 85 went 10-6 and went to the playoffs. Allen runs better than both, throws better than both and already has more career wins than both. Not sure what you're looking at. You're right about the o line. The throw to DiMarco was on Allen, not Daboll.

You're right. The article is great. Really funny, but it's clear that the author also appreciates Josh's talents. 37 is better than about 90% of all NFL QBs.

I'm much less critical of his game management than most, because I literally don't know how to make those decisions. Much of the criticism of McDermott's game management comes after losses, and that makes me suspect. If his game management is so bad, what's going on during those wins? Having said that, I think game management is a skill that coaches develop over time. All the time that guys are assistants or coordinators, they're not making game management decisions. The HC is telling them when they're going for it, when they're punting, etc. So McDermott has been managing games for exactly three seasons, while Reid and Belichick and Tomlin have been doing it for 20. There's no way anyone should expect McDermott to be as good at game management, yet, as seasoned coaches. McDermott has talked about this in general terms. He is not exempt from the process. His, game management decisions are studied and evaluated, and they develop knowledge and techniques to correct what they determine are game management mistakes. I'm sure analytics are involved, and that the Bills maintain a database about in-game decisions. I'm sure he's getting in-game advice about what the database says in various situations. So, I don't know how good or how bad his game management actually is, but I would expect that it will improve from year to year for several years.

I don't know the answer to this, but the more I think about it, the more ironic it seems that someone is asking this question. The refrain around here is that McDermott is too conservative, that he punts when he should go for it, blah blah. Now comes someone saying what was he doing, going for it? They're just decisions that a coach has to make all the time. Some decisions work out, some don't. If I had to guess, here's what he was thinking: Whether he punts or goes for it and doesn't make it, if the Eagles get one first down, the game is over. So his chances aren't very good either way. Going for it at least gives him two shots at it. Maybe he gets a miracle on 4th and 27. Maybe he gets a defensive penalty. If he doesn't make it, other than field position, he's no worse off than he was. If his defense doesn't hold, he's done. If it does hold, he has a shot.

I think this describes it very well. There were substantial changes from year 1 to year 2, substantial improvement from year 2 to year 3. They won't say it, but I think McBeane always figured that 2020 was the year the Bills would start seeing real success. A playoff win this year would have been good, but I don't think they're disappointed with where they are in their process. In other words, a playoff win would have been a little ahead of schedule - possible, worth working for, but where they find themselves today is essentially on schedule.

This is exactly right. It's tough to see on the replay, and it's possible that Ford had his right forearm on the defender. But it certainly was not the kind of play that the rule was designed to prevent. He didn't lower his shoulder, he didn't hit with his head, the defender saw him coming. If the forearm was involved, it was incidental. At that point in the game, that's a bad call. Officials let them play at the end of close games, and that's a game changing call on a play that didn't clearly violate the rule. No, that isn't an illegal blindside block. First, he was pushed by Poyer, he didn't make a block. But more importantly, he didn't hit Edmunds with his head, shoulder or forearm.

Another example of a fundamental misunderstanding of how the Bills are being built. This offense is NOT, primarily, built on the strengths of the players. Sure, the Bills run the QB because that's a strength, but the plan, obviously the plan, is that the Bills are acquiring players who fit the way they want to play. It started from the very beginning, with Hyde and Poyer, and it's continuing. And, the point that people lose sight of all the time, is that McDermott''s continuous improvement philosophy demands that everyone get better - that they learn and study and develop and get better. McDermott will evaluate Daboll and talk to him about the ways the two of them can get Daboll to improve. If McDermott concludes that Daboll's growth is maxed out, he'll move on. But if he believes that Daboll will get better, he'll keep him.

And there is a reason that good coaches teach their players the rules. The Texans' failure was a coaching failure, and the officials gave O'Brien a pass.

It WAS a perfect throw, and Duke got both hands on it. But on the closeup replays you could see the defender got a good swipe at the ball with his right hand (he missed), but then his left arm came around Duke's body and hit Duke's elbow just as he was about to secure it. That's when the ball came out. Was it enough contact to forcibly knock the ball out? I don't think so, but it was enough to disrupt the catch. Duke will tell you he should have caught it, but it was a well-defended play.

He is the franchise's quarterback and will be for ten years or more. The definition of a franchise QB is a QB the franchise will keep, and Allen is a keeper. There is no way, for example, that a Tannehill is going to come along and take the job from Allen like he did from Tennessee's supposed franchise QB. Is he a big winner? Not yet.