Shaw66

Inigo - Thanks for the post. It states clearly and concisely the importance of continuity. It was stated another way by McDermott a couple of months ago when he said he'd be happy if he just had everyone back, with no changes. What he meant was his team would be better in 2020 just by bringing everyone back. There's one other point in the continuity concept. The Bills AREN'T going to have everyone back - there will be some changes, and those changes will upgrade the talent. The Bills won't start the same five offensive linemen - one or two of last year's starters are going to lose their jobs to better players. Levi Wallace already has to worry about Josh Norman, and we haven't gotten to free agency and the draft yet. Some wideouts are in trouble. The only possible declines in talent across the starting 22 are the replacements for Shaq, Alexander and Philips. One of the most interesting things I heard McD talking about a couple of years ago was when he explained that when you get to this point, where you have continuity and a stable roster, the newcomers get up to speed very quickly. The veterans around them pull the newcomers up the learning curve, so that even though it took the vets three years to get to where they are now, the newcomers don't need that much time. The point is that newcomers don't break the continuity. A couple of years ago, a lot of people joked about and doubted the process. The rest of the NFL isn't laughing now.

Here you.

Illegal forward pass in the end zone. Safety. Player's intention is irrelevant. Player's lack of knowledge of the rules is irrelevant. Guy running free downfield, in celebration drops the ball and raises his arms before crossing the goal line. It's a fumble, intention doesn't matter. Before the rule change, guy doesn't touch the kickoff and it's rolling freely in the end zone. Kicking team recovers. Touchdown, intention doesn't matter. Quarterback under pressure throws deep up the left sideline. About the time the QB releases the ball, the receiver, having misread the defense breaks off the route and crosses the field. Intentional grounding, intention doesn't matter. Yes, even "intentional" grounding, intention doesn't matter.

Solid, steady, sustainable growth. Not much to complain about. Sure, some people will complain about this move or that move. But the name of the game is winning and being a position to win more, and that describes what McBeane have done.

True, but he has a name, and that name played some outstanding football in the system the Bills run on defense, so it isn't nuts. He may very well prove to be more than a warm body. All we can do is wait and see. Mostly, I'm amused that people get so upset about these signings. It's the kind of guys Beane signs all the time. People should be used to it by now. People went nuts when he signed Gore. Gore was Singletary's mentor. He was worth it for that reason alone.

You may be right. All I was doing was responding to a whining poster who said there is no logic behind the signing. There's plenty of logic behind the signing. And there's no risk. If what you say turns out to be correct, the Bills will cut him and will have lost nothing. If he turns out to be someone who can contribute, then the Bills got a cornerback. Those are the two likeliest outcomes, so that suggests it's a good signing. No downside, possible upside. How about Kevin Johnson, to name one right of the top, at the same position.

Good luck with that approach. Guys near their career best regularly get deals that aren't team friendly. But I get your point. Before I began listening to Beane talk about his philosophy, I didn't see much point in signing guys on the back end of their careers, like Norman. But Beane has a very clear philosophy. Free agency is primarily for filling gaps. Beane signed about ten free agent offensive linemen last year, and except for Morse, they all were journeymen at best. Day after day, it was another ho hum guy. And a bunch of them got cut. With only a few exceptions, like Morse, he isn't going after guys coming off their rookie contracts and moving into their career best form. That's not who he signs. By and large, Beane wants to get his best players out of the draft. So, as I said, I get it, and I generally agreed with you. But Beane's the GM of the team I root for, and he's doing it a different way. So I roll with it. Chances are there will be ten corners in camp, and Norman may not make it. If he makes it, it will have proved to be a good signing. If he doesn't, well that's the way McBeane want it to work.

No, you just ignore the logical arguments. You say the last three or four years of data show he was really bad. I posted data that showed he had the same number of interceptions in his first four years as in his last four, and he had about the same number of passes defended. That's a logical argument suggesting he has not been "really really bad on the field." But you ignore it and get all defensive. Plus, you and others ignore that this isn't a guy the Bills have signed to be a shut-down corner who plays the other teams' #1 guys. This is a guy they've signed at least for depth and to have a shot at getting some substantial playing time. This is a guy who has shown that he can play well in the defensive backfield scheme that McDermott teaches. Those are logical arguments that make the signing look like it makes sense. You don't like Norman. That's fine. We're all entitled to our opinions. That doesn't justify your getting all high and mighty and suggesting that there is no conceivable logic to the move. There's plenty of logic. You're either incapable of understanding it or unwilling to recognize it.

I really appreciate it when people put PFF in the title of the thread. That means I can ignore. Football Outsiders has the Bills more efficient than Jacksonville. You guys have a good time here; I'm not interested in Jacksonville.

I thought I'd look at a few stats. First, in Norman's last season in Carolina, the Panthers were #1 in the league in defensive passer rating. The first season he was gone, they were 21st. In his 4 seasons in Carolina he had 36 passes defended. In his four seasons in Washington, he had 43 Passes defended (he played a half season more in Washington). He had 7 interceptions in Washington and 7 interceptions in Carolina. How much speed he's lost and how much agility he's lost is measurable, and no doubt the Bills have measured it. So although we don't have it, McBeane have it. And the most important metrics, the soft metrics that McBeane value - teamwork, leadership, competitiveness, work ethic, McBeane already know. I look at all that and think that the negative reaction about Norman really amount to two things: (1) he got a big contract and then couldn't play up to the level of the contract. That may cause some people to think that he is a bad player. (2) he shot his mouth off a lot and couldn't live up to it. This is exactly the kind of free agent signing we keep getting from Beane. He's plugging holes, not looking for star. He wants guys who can play and do their job. Every hole he plugs leaves him free to go BPA in the draft, which is his objective. Assuming they re-sign Johnson, there's a good chance they now have CB covered for 2020.

I think people are missing the point about Norman. Here's what's important: McDermott had him for four years in Carolina, and McDermott knows, for an absolute certainty, that Norman processes McDermott's defense at a high level. That is, what's going on in Norman's brain is what McDermott wants in a corner back. So the only questions are whether at this point in his career he still has the heart and sufficient physical skills to execute what he's thinking. (For most other free agent CBs, McBeane don't know if the guy can process, mentally, what McD wants.) As for the heart and the physical ability. They have watched film of Norman over the past couple of years, and they can tell from the film whether his problems were that he has lost a step. They've probably talked to him a few times in the past couple of months, and they probably think from those talks that he has the heart. So from all aspects that they can evaluate off the field, they must be pretty highly confident that he can contribute at the level McD needs. If they discover at camp that he doesn't have it, they cut him. But my guess is that they're viewing this as a relatively low-risk signing that makes their defensive backfield better than it was in 2019. I agree with BillsfanAZ

This. McD knows exactly what he can get from Norman, so signing him means the Bills are adding an important piece.

I think what Beane and McDermott do, which is different from what most of us do, is they look at the roster as fluid, multi-year proposition. We tend to look at it as a static, 2020 thing. So for example, we look the roster as current people, how they fit, and current holes. We see Oliver, Star and Harrison Phillips and we think "the Bills need a 3-technique guy." We think "the Bills have Star, they don't need another 1-tech starter." I don't think McBeane think about it that way. They are looking at getting the best players they can get and thinking about how they might fit over the next 3-4 years. So, without knowing at all what McBeane are actually thinking, and how they might value Reader, on the assumption that Reader is the kind of talent they'd like to have on the team, how he fits on the 2020 roster isn't a huge consideration. Beane isn't going to say no to Reader simply because the Bills would have too much invested in the 1-tech position in 2020. The Bills have the cap room, and question Beane is asking himself is "how does my roster look for the next 3-5 years if I sign Reader." The answer to that question probably is "I like it." Reader's fairly young and apparently a talent. Yes, "but," people say. But they already have Star, but what do they do with Harry, because he isn't a 3-tech, but it's too much money, but, but, but. I can't answer those questions, but my guess is that those questions are less troubling to McBeane than to you and me. They have a good idea of how Harry is recovering, and they have a good idea of how well he might play the the 3-tech. They understand the cap and how they want to manage it much better than we do. They clearly seem to have a good handle on what they think Star's future is and when he's going to have outlived his usefulness. So I don't think the things people are talking about here are going to stop Beane from going after Reader if they think he's the 31 1-tech guy, either this season or over the next couple of seasons as Star approaches the end of his contract, and probably his career. One other thing, which I think some people touched on: The NFL is always changing, and the coaches' jobs are too change with it. People say it's a copy cat league, but the good coaches aren't just copying what works, they're creating new things that work. We've clearly seen a resurgence of the run game in the NFL - running the ball isn't enough to win, but the pass-happy that seemed to be evolving in the NFL has created opportunities for coaches to take advantage of the run game. McBeane's response to the passing game (like a lot of coaches) has been to get more speed and quickness in the back seven. Edmunds and Milano are the primary examples, and as well as the defensive backfield depth they're always looking for. The problem with that approach is that you give up some ability to stop the run. When you don't have three old-school linebackers on the field, you're at risk of getting gashed by the run games that teams are developing. So McDermott knows he has to respond. He has to stop the pass and still not be vulnerable to the run. He needs pass rush to help him stop the pass, but d linemen who can pressure the passer also typically have give up something in the run game. The need for gap control in the run game tends to limit the pass rushing abilities of your edge rushers and your 3-tech guy. Look at Jerry Hughes - good all-round player, probably more valuable to the Bills today than he was when they acquired him. He's had to dial back his pass rush to maintain gap control. Gone are the days where he's finding any way to beat the tackle and get to the quarterback, but also gone are the days when we'd see him crashing inside while the ball carrier was sprinting untouched around the offensive left tackle. Enter the 1-tech guy. Seems to me that now that the run game has re-emerged, the 1-tech may be one of the most important positions on the field. The key to playing the defense McDermott and Frazier want may be knowing that on every play your 1-tech is going to demand a double team, and on any play when he doesn't get double teamed, the offensive isn't running up the middle. I think that's why last year we heard McBeane defending Star from time to time. The fans didn't like Star because the fans rarely saw him do anything, but that doesn't mean he wasn't doing his job and wasn't important. If I'm right about that, Reader may be more valuable to the Bills than we think. That is, if the McBeane are going to be worried about managing the lack of depth in the interior of the d-line, they may prefer to manage lack of depth at the 3-tech than the 1-tech. They can coach around the 3-tech problem more easily, cover more easily the gaps in the defense created by having Oliver and Harry be the 3-tech than cover the gaps created by having two decent but not great 1-techs in Star and Harry. Remember, McDermott very much wants his team to be strong from the inside out, and I think Bean is completely on board with that. Poyer, Hyde, Edmunds, Star, Oliver, Morse, Allen, Singletary, Gore. Their focus clearly has been up the middle. Reader wouldn't surprise, even at a price that some might think is eye-popping.

Who thinks it's a Super Bowl roster?

This is a really good point. McD is intensely analytical, and he has very well defined ideas about that he needs and where. It wouldn't surprise to learn that McD is saying to Beane exactly what you said. McD wants flexibility, and I would think he would really like to have a collection of interior D lineman who can do different things. I can see Beane spending to do it.

Right about Milano, but you got the point. And if Vosean Joseph recovers, he will be like an extra late-round pick. Absolutely about 2nd and third round. But as I was discussing with Hapless, Beane has to weigh that against the possibility of getting a great talent at a position of need, like wideout. If the wideout he wants is at 15, Beane is thinking about going up and ditching your strategy. It's question like this that Beane puts himself to in his draft preparation. He says he tries to imagine all kinds of circumstances where a guy he like he could get by moving up. And he contemplates other scenarios where no one he really likes is at 22, and he tries to think through what he'd do. I thought it was cool that in NONE of the scenarios he'd run where he did deals and got Allen did he then imagine that Edmunds would be available.

I agree with Albany. The draft isn't a crapshoot. It isn't a science, that's for sure, but a crapshoot implies that all you can do is throw darts while blindfolded. It's the same as buy stocks in the stock market. That' not a science, either, but it isn't a crapshoot. In both cases, no one gets it right all the time, but some people clearly have better yields than others. Everyone misses some opportunities, and everyone picks a bust here or there, but the best have a higher percentage of guys who work out and a lower percentage of busts. In the first round and second round, it isn't so important that you get the guy left on the board who turns out to be the very best pro. That's nice if you do it, but what's more important is to get a good pro. If you get a good pro, you've helped your team. So, in the first couple of rounds the objective really is to avoid the bust. You really hurt your team by missing in those rounds. I think good GMs are good at identifying which players are going to make it - they have a high yield in those rounds. Beane's drafted Allen, Edmunds, Oliver and Ford, so he looks pretty good in that category. In later rounds, the task is to identify players who, despite their flaws, have a good shot at making it. Finding the Milanos. I don't know how you do that, but some organizations are better at it than others. The McDermott's system helps out Beane in that category, because McDermott puts a very high premium on competitiveness, brains and being a team player. Those are characteristics that a GM can identify - he can know whether a guy is team player, and he can know how hard a guy works. If a player has those characteristics, he has a good shot at making a McDermott team. No one's perfect - it's a difficult process, an imperfect science, but Beane seems to be a position to be a relatively high-yield guy.

I think you and I agree in general terms - the top talent is generally at the top of the draft. That's when you average all the talent year over year. But as you point out, in any given year, what positions you find in that top level vary. I don't study the draft much at all, so I have no reason to doubt that you are correct about your assessment of wide receiver talent. Assuming that's true, then we're talking about the one situation where Beane says he will trade up - when the guy on the top of his board is standing out - that is, when Beane would take him if he had that pick and might even have taken him earlier, AND when the guy plays a position of need, then he'll consider trading up. So I agree, this could be a trade-up situation for Beane. Remember, however, that Beane also has said he uses free agency to plug holes, and his objective is to go into the draft with no positions of need, so he can just take BPA every round. So, something we already knew, Beane will be looking at free agent receivers first. If he gets one, then the trade up for a receiver goes away. And the thing that frustrates me sometimes is that if he plugs a hole with a journeyman, he won't trade up even if the guy he could get by trading up looks to be better than the free agent he signed. Once the hole is plugged, even with a good but lesser player, Beane isn't so interested in going up. The other thing that is obviously true and sometimes frustrating watching Beane is that he's patient. He and McD really buy into the notion that this is a long-term building project, and Beane seems willing to stick by his principles and keep collecting talent, the thinking being that the opportunities for an elite player will come along over time and he doesn't have to reach for them. So trading down and building talent on the roster this year is, I think, an attractive alternative for him instead of a reach for an elite talent. It has to be the right opportunity. You've described the kind of situation that is the right opportunity - a draft where a couple of top ten talents at the right position might fall to the second ten. In Beane's view, that's not a reach - that's just taking advantage of an opportunity that happened to present itself. That's exactly how he talks about the deal for Edmunds - special talent, position of need, falling to a range where Beane could afford give up draft capital to get him. It will be interesting to see. Free agency first.

Maybe 6'9".

The only place you find with any certainty elite players who can contribute right away is at the top of the first round. By the bottom of the first round you're getting guys who should be starter sooner rather later but whose value is going to be realized in their second and third years. Look at Ed Oliver. Top 10 pick and he didn't contribute right away - he played, but not in any way that made a great difference. Although the Bills actually do need more depth, what they really need is better starters at multiple positions. And they need several, not just one or two. Trading down creates an opportunity to get one more guy who has a good shot being a serious contributor over the next several seasons.

They have done it by drafting "character." They take good athletes, good football players, who want to work really hard every day and who believe in team. When your team is lousy, that works. But as you fill up your roster with those guys, at some point you need something more, you need special players. Beane's good at finding good players in the mid-rounds, but now he has to start finding better players somewhere.

I don't anything at all about the players, but I like the concept. And I think you're right about what Beane has said about where the value seems to be in the draft. There's no question the talent is better in the first round than the second - that's just a statistical reality. The difference in the talent is what matters. The special talent is generally in the top four or five, maybe up to the top 10, but after that, you aren't talking about guys who are likely All-Pro and HOF talents. You're just talking about guys who project to be very good NFL players. Those probably very good NFL players run through the bottom half of the first and through the second, and some fall to the third. So trading back from late in the first has exactly the potential you say - it increase by one the number of guys who have a good shot to make the team. If you can pick five in the top three rounds, chances are good that four make the team. Add two or three free agents, throw in a late round draftee or a free agent rookie who surprises, and you have seven to as many as ten new players on the roster. That's a big talent upgrade on a team that's pretty good already. My only argument against the trade down is this: the Bills will lose two or three important starters (Alexander, Shaq and Philips) and also really could use a starting receiver. The first round pick, even though it's relatively late in the round, offers at least a decent shot and getting a quality guy to fill one of those slots. It's tough to give that up. Maybe the better point is that this is at least the year that a trade down makes more sense than a trade up.

Well, I think Ford actually is sort of untouchable. Not untouchable in the sense that he was just so awesome last season that there's no way the Bills should consider trading him. Almost anyone can be traded. He's untouchable in that the Bills invested a lot of time studying the guy and were so convinced about him that they traded up for him. He had his struggles in 2019, but offensive linemen coming out of college are notoriously underprepared for the NFL and almost all of them need time to learn how to play the oline in the NFL. So unless the Bills saw something that made them think they made a three-base error drafting him, they are not going to trade him after his rookie season. Their entire philosophy is premised on identifying talent and character and then growing guys into the players they want. They won't quit on their own guys quickly. As is often the case, I'm not saying that that is the smartest philosophy. I'm saying it's McBeane's philosophy. I think it's best to unload young talent a year too late instead of a year too early. Talent is hard to come by. A guy like Ford obviously has superior physical tools, tools that aren't easy to find. You hold on to guys like that and give them every chance to learn and develop, because the next guy you get probably won't have those tools. The Colts gave up on Jerry Hughes, a first round pick, after three years, and THAT was too early. Unless Ford is a cancer in the locker room, he shouldn't be traded. UNLESS something happens like the Eagles calling and asking if you're interested in LeSean McCoy. When you get that call, pretty much your whole roster is under consideration. So, for example, if the Panthers actually are trying to deal McCaffrey and the guy they really want is Ford, well, then he's touchable.

I would rank the four pairs differently. I've been waiting and hoping for MIihaels to retire for years. Nantz, Tirico and Buck are seriously good play by play men. All four commentators are good. Tirico left ESPN because he understood Michaels was going to retire and he'd get the Sunday night gig. Somehow Michaels didn't retire.

Well, I don't know anything at all about Dillard except what's posted here. If there's any truth to the rumor - Dillard and Jeffries on the block as a package - it's a very unusual situation. And it's a situation that the Bills are in position to take advantage of. I'm not a Jeffries fan, but he probably could play a role in the receiving corps. A first-round left tackle talent is always on the shopping list. There would have to be some questions answered first, because you don't see first round picks getting traded like this. Bills have the cap room to eat Jeffries contract and still get some benefit from him. Still, I'd say it's pretty unlikely.