Shaw66

That's outstanding, Hap. It demonstrates a few things. One is that his overall effectiveness went up nicely. Second that his deep ball effectiveness went up too. The note about preferred location and throwaways in 2018 is interesting. It means in 2019 he was generally throwing the ball way less than his rookie year. That means he was finding guys to throw to. It's a picture of a guy who's improving all over the field. Maybe not caught, but attempted. I think you're correct about that. They're going to be telling Allen, if it's a 50-50 ball to Diggs, we'll take that bet. 50-50 to anyone else, go someplace else, even a throw away.

Is there a link to that study? I didn't find it on the Outsiders. As to the comment about Ford having a better body for guard than tackle, I know nothing about those body mechanics, etc. However, I think it's clear that McBeane's approach is guys who can play multiple positions. That is, athleticism is the key, not body type. In the last few years I'd begun to notice that all of Belichick's offensive linemen were built more or less the same. Solid, tough, athletic, quick (for their size). So Ford's future is more likely to be told but which position he shows he can play best at.

This is the fundamental question, and even this question depends on what we mean by poor deep ball thrower. I think everyone should be able to agree that Allen has not been a productive deep ball thrower. He hasn't been very efficient throwing the deep ball. His completion percentage, his yardage, his ability to hit open deep receivers, collectively have not been good enough. What is or are the causes of his poor production? First, I think that in terms of simply throwing a football, I'd guess that Allen is in the top 10 in the league. That is, if you run something like a pro day, where a QB is standing in an empty stadium on his home field and receivers are running routes against air, I'm guessing Allen will complete that throw like the best in the league. Just throwing, no pressure, no nothing. So I don't think the problem is throwing the deep ball. The problem has to be about other factors, most of which have to do with other aspects of Allen's game. It is true that having receivers who get open and having a line that gives appropriate protection has something to do Allen's effectiveness. However, even those things are things that Allen needs to learn to adjust to. Brady didn't always have good protection and didn't always have good receivers, so he adapted. But even more important than dealing with the receivers and line is seeing the game. If he sees the game, he knows where even mediocre receivers will be open. If he sees the game, he knows when he needs to bail from the pocket early enough to still make the good throw. So if he sees the game as well as he should, he knows his receiver is going to be open and he knows his job is just to get to a place to throw it. Sometimes that means a quick move in the pocket, sometimes it means making an off-balance throw, sometimes it means scramble. In any case, it means he's getting to a place where his superior pure throwing ability gives him great effectiveness. Josh's long-term career objective is to learn to process and make decisions like Brady. Imagine if Brady had been able to throw like Josh. He would have been unbelievable. What do you think Fitzpatrick thinks when he looks at Josh. Fitz thinks, "oh, man, what I could have done with that physical talent!" That's Josh's objective - to understand the game like Brady and Fitzpatrick do. And like Brees does. Right now, Josh is a long way from there, a long, long way. If he's ever going to be a great one, he has to get better every year for several more years. At the end of the day, it's all about how Josh learns and can bring to the field.

This post makes good points. I agree with those who say his stats throwing deep are bad, but it's obvious he can make all the throws. His stats are bad for multiple reasons. One is that he threw deep out of desperation more often than we'd like, like that horrible duck he threw to DiMarco last season. He'd get rushed, scramble, fail to find a better option (which may or may not have been there) and then he'd unload the ball deep. Not necessarily a bad decision, but certainly bad for the stats. Another is that doesn't always get enough air under the ball. He has to learn that. Another is that he needs guys open more often. Diggs should help that. This will be the first season that Allen will be on the field with two legitimate deep threats. So as you say, he has to continue to improve. He needs some better line play, but I think primarily he needs to to be better at pre-snap and post-snap recognition. When Allen understands what he's looking at, when the play is working the way it's supposed to, he throws the ball well, both short and deep. When he doesn't understand completely, he tends to hesitate, to fail to identify the opportunities, and that makes him throw late. When he's late, he's in a hurry, and when he's in a hurry his accuracy declines. He needs to see and understand. If he does that, he'll be fine. If he doesn't, he'll never be much better than we saw last season.

I can. If he agreed he was a backup, he has years of experience in the league to share with Josh. Plus, Josh gets hurt and you have a starter-quality backup for some games.

This is the point I've been making. Three positions got better, and collectively, as a unit, they're a serious threat. OP has an interesting take. I think his assessments are pretty much on the money, may even be a bit cautious on a couple. And there's still the likelihood that someone named in the 22 loses his job to a surprise diamond in the rough.

I think you overestimate what you can get in the draft. It's only the guys at the top of the draft that you can count on to start. You get down to to the bottom of the first and into the second, what you get is guys like Ford - guys with the physical tools but without the experience. There are articles every year about the fact that offensive linemen are the least NFL ready players coming out of the draft. Many of them, and Ford is an example, played in college systems that didn't ask them to do many of things they have to do in the pros. That's why you see so many guys who begin to have success in their third or even fourth season after college. They have a lot to learn, and it isn't easy. So sure, you might find a starting offensive lineman late in the first round or in the second, but it's just as likely that you'll miss, in the sense that the guy won't help you much as a rookie. In the 2020 training camp, a guy like Ford has a huge advantage over that rookie. He has learned a year's worth of stuff that the rookie doesn't know. The smart bet is that Ford will be better in 2020 than any rookie who might fall to the Bills. Maybe not better over the long run, but better in 2020. That mentality is at the core of how McDermott operates. He demands that his players improve from year to year, and he understands that if he does his job, his players WILL improve. That approach means he has to have patience with his young players and not have an itchy trigger finger. So it isn't surprising at all that they're betting on Ford in 2020.

Yes, I would keep them. Swinging and missing on a QB happens to everyone, sooner or later, so if they missed on Allen, I don't think it should be fatal. Twice is a different story. Plus, if Allen misses, it won't be by much. He's pretty good right now, when you roll in his running threat. He's a top 20 quarterback. He's as productive as a guy like Fitzpatrick. That is, he's an average to slightly below average starter. He isn't Ryan Leaf or JP Losman or EJ Manuel. So if Allen never grows beyond where he is right now, I'm not coming down hard on McBeane. But if Allen isn't any better in his third season than he was in his second, McBeane had better be looking hard for an alternative. You have to remember, though, that QB development takes time. Tannehill is a good example. He had his moments in Miami, but generally he just bumbled along as a marginal starter. We didn't always see the growth. Then 2019 happens, and everyone has to reconsider him. If he puts up another season like 2019, this time as the full-time starter, he will have shown once again that it takes time to grow into a real player in that position.

This is absolutely correct. It is problem for young qbs to do it, all around the league, and Allen has to get better at it. He has to master it to be great. And its a bit on Daboll, too, because defenses have gotten better at disguise and taking the hot read away. But mostly it's Allen.

Whoa! Talk about some weapons.

I think they feel they can live with what they have, but they almost certainly will bring in competition. Someone is going to get pushed. I can't imagine anything else. Maybe a 2nd or 3rd round pick, maybe a free agent.

Do it again and you will get the same result. That's what you get at that level. Ford may or may not grow into a good pro, but you're probably not getting a rookie starter who is much better. Possible, but it's a bad bet. You're right. The line was mediocre. They're counting on Ford improving and they are counting on the line growing together as a unit.

Clearly what McBeane think. No free agent help yet, and the #1 pick gone. They're betting on continuity and improvement.

They did that last year.

I thought you explained that nicely early on. And I think if you limit it to a wideout trio, there's a clear advantage over KC. However, you gotta admit that if you're talking about just three guys who lead your passing attack, KC's group with Kelce is right up there.

That's a fair argument. But I'd say that Brown has his best seasons playing as the #2, odd as it sounds. When he's the number 1, his performance against the top corners and defenses generally seemed to slip. And Diggs played on a team where he had to share the #1 role and that didn't want to be a passing team. Having said that, I have to say I haven't seen Godwin much, but Evans is really special - not flashy, but really, really good. Any trio with him is a good trio.

Yeah. Beane said a couple of months ago that 2021 might be the year the Bills start earning comp picks. Seems like no way this year.

I agree about this. Frankly, I think you also have to take into consideration the coaches. Mahomes has a coach who's a master offensive planner and the Bills have Daboll. And I'm not saying that put down Daboll. All I'm saying is that from a coaching standpoint the Chiefs offense is also on all cylinders. Maybe Watkins-Beasley is a push. Watkins is more talented, Beasley more consistently makes plays for you.

I agree. I mean, anything could happen, but I've said a few places now that the Bills have a top 10 number 1 receiver, a top 10 number 2 receiver and a top 10 slot receiver. Who else can say that? And that's why it comes back to Allen. The right quarterback should thrive with a trio like that. And it comes back to Daboll. And back to the o line. This team has this elite trio, and it has Singletary, who still has some upside, and everyone else has to do his job to take advantage of it.

I think this is an excellent way to look at. Take any trio and put them on the Chiefs with Mahomes. I think it's tough to find a trio of wideouts Mahomes would want over these three. They could be that good. We could argue all day about it, because there are some other good trios, but for me the fact that each of the Bills has succeeded in the league at a consistently high level, and each is still playing at a high level. That's tough to beat. These three are guys who each have recently been top in their category (primary, secondary and slot), real threats, and they still play at that level. Who else has that at all three positions?

Look at his stats and look at his visibility on the field. He was a different player the second half of the season. Murphy is definitely NOT Kelsay 2.0. Same work ethic, to be sure, but Kelsay never was an explosive playmaker. Murphy has done that.

I think you just believe what you choose to believe, instead of actually evaluating what happened. In his final 8 games (he missed one, so it was the Bills' last 9 games), Murphy had 5 sacks, 26 total tackles, 6 tackles for loss. In his last 8 games, Shaq had 4.5 sacks, 21 total tackles and 9 tackles for loss. In his last 8 games, Phillips had 4.5 sacks, 18 tackles and 6 tackles for loss. Murphy clearly was not "well below" those two, and keeping Murphy on the team for 2020 costs LESS than it would have cost to keep either Shaq or Phillips. But please don't let the facts get in the way of your conclusions. It's obvious that Murphy sucks and only is on the team because McD likes him.

Two things about this. First, once the guy is on your team, what you're paying him is not very relevant. The question is solely about whether he's helping your team and doing what you want him to do. Every team every year has guys who are getting more than what they'd be worth if they immediately became free agents, and other guys who are getting paid less than they should. It's just in the nature of how compensation works in the league. The only question is whether he's doing his job. I'm guessing that the OP and people who are backing Murphy have it right. If he weren't doing his job, the Bills probably would have cut him to realize the savings. The fact that they didn't cut him suggests McD likes what they're getting from him. My recollection is that Murphy in an interview sometime late last season, when his play had picked up and he was making a difference, Murphy said that he finally was recovered from his surgery. Essentially he said that he still wasn't right when the 2019 season began. That would help explain why his play improved, and it also would be part of the reason that the Bills are keeping him. Plus, as we know, McDermott loves the guy's intensity. McD wants guys like that on the team, to model their behavior for other players. Murphy's a mad dog committed to doing his job, and McD wants 60 of those.

Oh, absolutely. I'm not saying they are absolutely right. It may not work out, it's true. What I'm saying is they wouldn't have made the move unless they believed it would make the Bills competitive at the highest level. As I said, the move challenges the team to get the job done.

I wouldn't be too quick to dismiss him. The guy has heart and has an edge about him. Fearless and committed. Good enough athlete. A Chris Hogan type. He's a guy McDermott can fall in love with. He's like a wrestler.