Shaw66

Yes. I wrote something about this in another thread. The bottom line is that the entire field is now open to the offense, which forces the defense to defend the entire field. The Bills now have all the skill position tools to attack whatever part of the field they want. One player, but it's a major change. I wrote somewhere else that his deal signals that McBeane think the team is ready now. If they thought they needed help on the oline, they would either have gone after oline talent in these first few days or they would have strategized about what it would take to get talent in the draft. Instead, what did they do? They ignored the oline in free agency AND traded away the draft pick. That says, loud and clear, that the oline as is will be as good as they need, and it still leaves the door open for a player to emerge out of camp.

I don't know the Vikes that well, but it always seemed to me that they essentially had two primary receivers. That's what was tough about them together, and that's why Cousins has been a disappointment. I think Green has struggled to be a #1 who made a difference for his team, and Watkins clearly failed at being a #1, period. I think Diggs has been more of a difference maker for his team, and he comfortable in the role of "the" guy. Brown never has had quite enough to take over a game when the team needed it, but he's a devastating weapon as #2 receiver. And it takes pressure off of Beasley. He's going to go back to what he's best at: being a pesky little guy who threatens to sting you every play. Ask your self this: rank the following players in order of the guy you'd like as your #2 receiver. That is, assuming you're happy with your number 1 guy, and you could choose any of these three, which would it be? Robert Woods, Cole Beasley, John Brown. For me, it's Brown in a heartbeat, and that's from someone who always admired Woods. Beasley is a distant third. I think the Bills are ending up with starting receivers who now each is playing the role on the team that he's best at. I really like the comment about having to finally address a position that some fans thought was stepchild. I think it's really the third year of the rebuild, but we skip that argument. Whatever you call it, they just couldn't wait any longer. And it's a major statement from Bills' management saying "we're here now. Not 2021, we're here now." It's a statement to Josh, a challenge. The lack of attention to the Oline is a statement and a challenge to the oline. It says to the oline "we're all in on you, or else we would have gone after help. We traded out of #1 because we don't need a #1 to replace any of you." It's a statement to the fans, and to the owners. It's a statement that says to everyone "we can win now. We aren't done getting better, but we can win now." The deal says McBeane think they already are good enough to compete for it all, and they aren't done. Not having made the deal and getting the best receiver at #22 would have said "we're still building," because that guy is quite likely not going make a difference in 2020. Might play, but not make a difference. But the Diggs deal says they don't think they have to wait to win a lot. And I think the moves on the defense says exactly the same thing. It says we need to get some guys in here to plug some holes, and we'll be fine. Free agency begins and BINGO! some serious hole-plugging and more additions join the team. All of it screams that they're ready.

The experience difference is real, but I don't think it's that big of a deal. I mean, Allen won't be a veteran signal caller, but he's going to get a lot of open shots. Arians is a big deal. That's a good point. I went to all of those games, and it was tough. But I can't recall three games in one season like those. It was unusual. I know it's crazy to talk about an offense being explosive when it was as weak as it was last season. But with one move the Bills accomplished what they wanted - to force the defense to defend the entire field. With Diggs and Brown on the field, the defense has to defend the bubble screen, the slants, the outs and the ups, every play. They have to defend Beasley and the tight end underneath from sideline to sideline. They have to defend the screens, swings and wheel routes to Singletary. They have to defend EVERYTHING. It's what the Rams did to you two years ago, and it's what the Chiefs did to you last you. I keep coming back to the fact that one move improved three positions. The Bills suddenly have a top ten #1, a top ten #2, and a top ten #3. Last season they weren't better than top 20 at any of those positions. I think life just a lot easier for a young quarterback.

Absolutely. The oline is a smaller question. It's pretty much all on Daboll and Allen.

I agree. I just found myself thinking about how explosive Diggs and Brown could be together and began wondering what might be a fair comparison. Lots of reasons why it might not happen, but the Cards' 2015 offense is a picture of what the Bills could do.

2015 wasn't that long ago. John Brown, in his second NFL season, was the Cards' #2 receiver, paired with Larry Fitzgerald. Michael Floyd was their #3 guy, at least in the stats. Carson Palmer throwing. Cards went 13-3. Cards were second highest in yards passing per game, 5th in passer rating. Chris Johnson and David Johnson shared the ball carrying. #1 in yards per game, #2 in points per game. Cards were 5th in yards per game defense and 7th in points per game defense. Fast forward five years. Brown seems to be in his prime, probably a better receiver today than he was in 2015. Stefon Diggs isn't Larry Fitzgerald, but he's damn good. He's a better deep threat than Fitzgerald, and he's no slouch running underneath routes. Beasley is a perfect complement to the two deep guys. Allen is a QB with the arm and the body that Palmer had, and he's more mobile. Coincidentally, Palmer's brother is his coach. Singletary needs a running mate. I'm predicting nothing, but the comparison gives an idea of what this offense could become.

I get it. We've been living this bad dream for so long, it just doesn't seem real that this is happening. Plus, and this is really where your realism/pessimism is grounded, it's really tough to win in the NFL. The playoffs amaze me with how high those coaches and players raise their level of play. So it isn't easy to win. And I don't disagree about the Patriots, either. Belichick is the GOAT. Brady is the GOAT only because he was the perfect fit for Belichick. Belichick has 30-35 players returning who know the system and who play at a really high level. All he has to do is get a QB to play at a high level. A guy like Dalton might very well keep the Pats on top, and except for one play, I'm not Dalton booster.

I agree that the FO seems to be consistently good at identifying and adding pieces to the team, but they don't get all the credit. It takes two to tango - players have to want to play in Buffalo, and that's about the quality of the coaching, the prospects of the team for the future, the quality of the fans, a lot of things. Last year the reports were that Beasley came down to Buffalo and New England. Two years ago Brown was interested in Buffalo but was unsure about the situation and went to Baltimore instead on a one-year deal. Last year at this time he looked again, liked what he saw, and came to Buffalo. A boatload of offensive linemen chose Buffalo, and the Bills now have three starting offensive linemen who weren't here before. It looks like the Bills just signed a seriously good collection of defensive players (an even better collection than the group of offensive linemen last year), not every one of whom will work but who collectively should improve an already good defense and adequately cover the losses of Shaq, Philips and Zo. Those guys each had good options and they all chose Buffalo. That's more than FO salesmanship. That's evidence of a total team environment - coaches, fans, owners, facilities that good players are finding desirable.

Well, of course, but this is typical rear-view mirror analysis. Anyone can make predictions that are nothing more than last year's standings reiterated. The problem with that kind of prognostication is that it's usually better than 50% wrong. Most teams other than the Patriots rise to the top for a year, two years tops, and then fall again, despite the fact that many fans think they see another dynasty. I certainly wouldn't bet on Baltimore staying on top - the league is in the process of figuring Jackson out, and he hasn't yet shown that he can be a master NFL quarterback. The point is that the teams at the top of the NFL change from year to year. San Francisco was 4-12 in 2018 and one of the best teams in the league last season. There are plenty of reasons why the Bills might not get near the top in 2020, but of the teams that weren't there in 2019, they have to be one of the preseason favorites.

Wow. There's an idea. If he could handle the edge, that would be something.

I agree with this. I think you have to get up to 15 or so to get a special player. The Bills were going to get a good player, no doubt, but not a guy who was likely to be an impact player from day one. Where'd they get Ford - at 30? Why'd they trade up to get Edmunds? Because he wouldn't last into the 20s. It didn't seem likely that the Bills had enough capital to trade up into the mid-teens or better. So I wasn't expecting a star player in the draft. Diggs will be better out of the gate, no question.

Especially because McBeane claim to be build-through-the-draft guys, I hear you. But one of the things about Beane is he's fearless about Monday morning quarterbacking. When he sees something that he thinks works, especially something where's there agreement in the room from the coaches and the scouts, he goes and gets it. He made this deal quickly, in part because, I'm sure Minnie was telling him he was on the clock. I think it's fair to assume the Bills had done their homework on Diggs. They certainly scouted him for the game last season, and they also knew he was likely to be on the block or released this season, given his troubles with the Vikings. For Beane, if it's a guy he wants, he clearly would prefer to overpay than to miss the opportunity. Maybe lightning is going to strike and the Vikings will find a star late in the draft with one of the Bills' picks. If that happens, it's nice for the Vikings, but the question always is "are you happy with what you got?" If you're happy, the price is less important. McDermott is fretting that he gave up the pick that landed Mahomes in the KC. He got White and he got the ammunition that got him Allen. If you get a guy you like, you don't look back.

Well, I'm no capologist at all, but in terms of talent on the roster the Bills are getting to the point where next season we're going to start seeing guys cut as cap casualties, or free agents allowed to sign elsewhere. We already saw Philips and Shaq go, and that's going to become the norm. That's what happened in New England for years. Having said that, I have no idea if the Bills are done yet. Maybe with big signings as you say, and all that will be left will be the $2-3 million one-year deals that dribble in over the next few months.

Thanks to all who replied. And I know that Beane said they don't have enough room on the roster for seven draft picks to make it, but he was talking about the roster. And I'm not arguing that they paid too much for Diggs. I agree that a guy like Diggs is potentially valuable enough that the stuff you throw in on the back end of the trade isn't too important. If Diggs works out, the positives on the team will way outweigh whatever a couple of sixth round picks will do for you. But those picks DO matter. You need new players every year, and the best of the crop go in the draft. That was point. And Alpha, the math isn't wrong. Overall, on average, each team needs 10 or 15 new guys each season for the season, not camp. That's 10 or 15 guys coming out of college. More some years, fewer others, but on average you need a bunch. Most of them may never get beyond the practice squad, but you need them. And if year after year your opponents are drafting more and you're signing more undrafted free agents, over time, they're going to have better talent than you. It's simple logic. But as I said, I don't think there's much point in arguing about whether throwing in one or two of those picks worth it. To suggest the Bills overpaid because they added those picks doesn't make a ton of sense. The deal is pretty much Diggs for a first and change.

Frankly, I think this notion that the Bills don't need those later round picks is wrong-headed. Those picks are valuable, and to say that guys drafted in the later rounds wouldn't make this roster misperceives what happens on a typical NFL roster. With the roster plus practice squad plus a few free agents you pick up over the course of the season, you need about 70 players a year. Even if players had an average career of 7 years (they don't), you need 10 new players a year. And, no, it isn't relevant that some of the new players you pick up from other teams. Every team needs 10 new players, because 10 of your players are retiring every year. We don't notice many of them, because they are guys who were on the practice squad, or special teams for a year or two, but one way or another, 10 or more players are leaving the league each year. So you need 10 new players every year. If you're perfect in the draft, you get seven, and you still need three rookie free agents. If you have fewer than seven picks, you need more rookie free agents. If you're less than perfect, you need more rookie free agents. There's a rookie pool coming into the league every year. If you have fewer draft picks, you have to take more rookie free agents, which means that other teams are getting to pick players who, although they may end up having short careers, still are better than the ones who will be left when you go after the rookie free agents. So those picks the Bills just traded DO have value. Maybe not much trade value, but they are help your team maintain a certain level of talent. They don't all make, but some do. I'm not saying the Bills made a bad deal; in fact, I like it for the reason I gave in a posts somewhere: the Bills improved three positions by getting one guy. But don't think that Beane thinks those picks he traded were worthless. He'd love to have those picks, because he finds players in those rounds. It's just that he'd love to have Diggs more.

Maybe it's just me, but almost as soon as it's done I stop thinking about trade values and all that. Whether this was a good deal for one side or the other will be clear in three years. In the meantime, what matters is how the Bills look going forward from here. For starters, think about the fact that as a rookie in 2018, Josh Allen was throwing to Zay Jones, Kelvin Benjamin, Robert Foster and Charles Clay. In 2020, he's going to be throwing to Stefon Diggs, John Brown, Cole Beasley and whichever TE emerges. (Frankly, with Diggs on board, I'm not sure it matters who the tight end is; if he knows how to run routes, he is going to get open.) Bills probably still need help at linebacker, on the edge and on the offensive line, as well as a running back. They will pick up that help in the remainder of free agency and in the draft. I think the opportunity to get Diggs was too big to pass up, for one reason: there are very few players you can get who make your team better at three positions. The Bills now have a considerably better #1 than they had a year ago (Diggs), a considerably better #2 than they had a year ago (Brown) and a considerably slot receiver than they had a year ago (Beasley). There aren't any positions where you can get that ripple effect. One acquisition to improve three positions makes Diggs worth paying for.

Great article. Thanks. Pretty exciting to contemplate.

I think he was a lousy receiver. He caught only the easiest balls, and he didn't open easily. And he wasn't so explosive that he could have an impact on screens, rubs, etc. He did his job as well as he could, but he had plenty of opportunity to be an impact player and couldn't do it. He wasn't the future.

Oh, I didn't mean I didn't love the story. I'd have loved having that kind of interaction with a HoF player. Passed Jim Brown at Ralph Wilson Stadium and always regret not just stopping and introducing him to my son. And to be fair, sure Bettis would have said nice things to any fan, but these sounded like they were sincere.

Well, that all sounds great and I agree with all his conclusions, but ... 1. I'm a Bills fan, so of course I agree, 2. If you're an ex-NFL star who owns a restaurant, you've probably figured out it's not good for business to tell customers that their team sucks.

I agree with this, and I think Beane does too. The only reservation is that Beane doesn't want to buy thoroughbreds in free agency. He wants them in the draft, and after Allen and Edmunds, he doesn't care much which position the thoroughbred plays. Last year it was Oliver. Tougher this year, picking at 22. That's why some may be right and he'll trade up. But if he can't do that and he can get a couple of mustangs with the first and second picks, and a couple more in free agency, Bills will be in good shape. I think Beane is good for a mustang a year in free agency. A Hyde (I know, he wasn't Beane's), a Morse. I'm assuming we'll see another one or two of those this year. Not a Clwoney, not a Cooper. Beane wants to get his thoroughbreds in the draft, so he can have them for a long time. I don't know if Beane ever will be that guy who thinks he is one player away and makes a big splash in free agency to get him. If he is that kind of guy, I think he's still a year away from doing it. I have no idea who Beane will get, but he's convinced me after two years that he's going to keep building talent.

Here's what I think Beane would say to you: You don't understand or you haven't been listening. The Bills are about continuous improvement. They want better players at every position every year. They want intense competition in camp at every position every year. To have that competition, the Bills need to take 90 guys to camp. If they don't re-sign their players, the Crooms and Crofts and Fosters, and if they don't sign free agents who either will make it or not, like Norman, they won't have 90 players in camp and they won't have competition. Competition at positions makes players out of some guys you wouldn't expect. So some of the guys you don't like will improve from last year and contribute in 2020. We don't know which ones will improve and contribute and which ones will lose out to newcomers. That's what camp is for. When the free agent market opens, we will get some good players. You may not be impressed by the names, but we know what we need and what we're looking for. Same thing for the draft. If Croom and Croft are still around in September, it will be because they're good and can contribute. Beyond that, you overemphasize the value of marquee talent. Winning football is about good football players doing their jobs, and only to a lesser extent is about great players. The Patriots have had great teams for 20 years, and they haven't done it by chasing after great players. They do it with good football players who are smart and do their jobs. That's what the Bills are trying to do. At the end of free agency and the draft, you will probably be disappointed. You won't like the names. The Bills management will not be disappointed. They are going to get the guys they want, and they are going to work those guys into the roster in a way that makes the Bills a better team. That's exactly what's been happening for two full seasons now, and it's going to continue. You seem to have missed that point.

Everyone is entitled to an opinion, and there are plenty of reasons why the 2020 Bills could fail to improve. Injuries, as you say, are one. But the analysis here is weak, if not flat out wrong. We don't know how far Allen will go, but the odds are very good that we haven't seen the best version yet of Allen. He came out of a backwater college and got very little college-level QB training, so he was behind most highly touted QBs. He's had two years to learn and he's made substantial progress. It is much more likely than not that he will be better than last season. TE room has potential, which means it's likely to improve. It's not like there's no potential there. No backup at running back is simply naive. Do you think the Bills RB room today is the RB room that will open the season? Of course not. It will be better come September. The Bills don't have a "big hole" at CB2. They could improve over Wallace, but he did just fine last season. Bills had the third best passer defensive passer rating in the league last season; it's impossible to do that with a "big hole" at corner back. There should be no "no regression at player performance." No one on the offensive line is at the typical downside of his career, and they should be better with a year's experience together. No reason to expect regression from Allen, Singletary, Brown, Beasley, the tight ends, the returners at Dline or anyone in the defensive backfield. I'm not saying that the Bills are a lock to be better. They should be better. But most of the reasons you give for why they wouldn't be better are unlikely and unsupported by any evidence.

Plus, as I said in the continuity thread that Inigo started, when you have continuity and roster stability, new additions get up to speed much faster than when the whole roster is learning a new system. So, to pick an example, if the Bills insert a better talent at left guard between Morse and Dawkins, that new talent blends in and plays at a high level much more quickly than if the center and tackle were new, too. I have no doubt that the oline will be better. Ford will be better because he isn't a rookie any longer, Ford and Dawkins and Feliciano and Spain will be better because they have a full year into the system, and one or two of them will lose their jobs to players who are more talented. Allen and Singletary will be the two biggest beneficiaries.

Responding to this and other similar comments: You're ignoring what McBeane have told us for years now. They are never satisfied with the level of talent anywhere. They want and will bring in competition. Last year they had to bring in all those free agent offensive linemen to create the competition they wanted. This year they already have their depth, and they'll be looking to bring in at least a couple of guys who will challenge for starting jobs. I'm expecting one good free agent lineman and one good rookie. Morse is guy whose job is most secure, Dawkins second. The next three or four are going to be fighting for playing time.