Shaw66

You know, I have absolutely no idea whether we're going to see a new Motor this year, whether any of this stuff Dunne is saying will actually turn out to make a difference on the field. What I continue to be amazed about is how one Bill after another after another displays the same fierce determination to get better. It really does seem that if you don't have that, McBeane aren't interested. If you haven't read the article, read it. It's interesting. It's about one motivated dude.

That's an interesting point about his running that I've sort of ignored as people talked about it here. Thanks for making it directly enough that even I get it. You're right about the running helped him stay on the field as a rookie, which gave him the opportunity to learn and progress. And it really is quite surprising that his running ability didn't show up in college. Allen's well on his way to becoming a classic tough, from-the-pocket field general, like Ben and Peyton. His mobility probably will always be part of his game, but it will decline as years go by. I'm expecting that in a few years he will be beating everyone with his brain more than he ever beat teams with his legs. I mean the pros - scouts, coaches, GMs. Sure, they knew he was a talent. Any amateur could see that he was a talent. What I meant was that they couldn't see that he was so likely to achieve his potential. Ten teams, at least, thought he was a long shot. I mean, do you think there is anyone in the Browns front office who, if he was being really honest, is happy that they took Mayfield over Allen?

Well, I agree, it's not yet time to send Josh to the Hall of Fame. We're all so excited about 2020, but the truth is that to be one of the greats, Allen has to do it year after year and continue to get better. For example, there was a thread about someone's boss said let's see how good Allen is on the road when the stands are full. It's a good point. Allen succeeded last season in quiet stadiums; the greats win when the crowd is in their face. But I'm happy to say that it didn't take the second half of the 2020 season for me to conclude not only that the Bills got the right Josh but that they probably got the best guy in the draft. I was convinced by the end of his rookie season. It was completely obvious to everyone by then that he had an extraordinary set of physical tools, and he'd already demonstrated the quality of his leadership. Add all of the comments that were coming out of One Bills Drive, from front office, coaches, and teammates, too many comments to ignore, comments that said he's a hard worker, he's a leader, and he's smart, and there wasn't any real question for me about where Josh was going. However, the interesting question to me is not who among us saw it first or how long it took us to see it. What's interesting to me is that at least six, and probably eight or ten collections of coaches, scouts, and GMs didn't see it before the draft. The guy's physical abilities were obvious in college - we all saw that when we started watching his college highlights before or after the draft. No team should have missed that. And it seems that his intangibles were obvious to anyone who took the time to look for them. We've heard or read about how Allen seemed a little aloof or something when the Bills first met with him, but then they went out to dinner with him and everyone began to see the intangibles. It's not like they were hidden - it's apparently pretty easy to get to know Allen and to see what makes him tick. It doesn't sound like it was hard for the Bills personnel to see that Allen was smart, a hard worker, a competitor. The Bills knew it by draft night - they were sure. That's why they traded up. The Browns missed it, the Giants missed it, the Jets missed it, the Broncos - my heavens, the Broncos, how could they look at their roster and look at Allen and go in some other direction? It's amazing to me that the professional evaluators were so bad at figuring it out before the draft. And Allen's case is just the most recent, and fortunately we were on the right side of it. I often wonder how the Bills and others missed on Ngata, how several teams missed on JJ Watt, how so many teams missed on Aaron Rodgers. In retrospect it just doesn't seem that hard to see, but teams do miss.

He he he. Good stuff. I didn't like Rosen, either, but being strictly analytical about it, I had Rosen ahead of Allen. I sat there watching the draft, looking for Rosen. Then, just as the Bills traded up and I knew that the Bills could have either, it came to me - take the guy with the size and the arm. I just flipped from Rosen to Allen in the 15 seconds before the Bills' pick was announced. Not only did I have no earthly idea Allen could run, I had no earthly he could do anything except throw the ball a mile. But I wanted the athlete. McBeane knew a LOT that we didn't know. They knew what characteristics they were looking for, and they were sure they saw those things in Allen. No way I saw what was coming.

When they're being frank, the Pegulas admit they didn't do their homework when Rex was hired.

Excellent. We don't know what the insiders know. We think we do, but we don't.

Excellent point. It all depends on what McBeane think of him now. If they think he's the guy for the future, they extend him. I'd they aren't sure, they let him play year four without exercising, and then decide. With Allen they will extend. With Lawson they didn't exercise the option. Those are probably the two choices.

Set up or not, Giant fans are not sold on the guy. We saw what Josh Allen did when he was "set up." We'll see what Jones does.

I don't mean to take anything away from Alex Smith - he's been courageous, tenacious. He's worked at his craft. He had plenty of reason to complain about things that happened to him in his career and pretty much never complained. But ... Alex Smith was a number 1 overall pick and a quarterback. He was in the limelight. There are ten guys who retire every season who have had the same experience - hard work, bad breaks, underappreciated, great guys. Smith is the poster child for all of those guys. So congratulations to Alex Smith for being a great guy who did his job under sometimes difficult circumstances, and congratulations to all those other guys who did, too.

i agree. He may be the perfect backup. He could be in Buffalo for ten years. The only problem with that theory is that he won't have any experience. Trubisky is the perfect backup; the problem is that you can't always have a Trubisky. Bottom line is that backup QB is always a work in process. The GM can never say "we're set at backup QB for the next several years." Maybe Daniel Jones will be next season's Trubisky.

Interesting point. They can do only so much with pre snap disguise. And they're always adding wrinkles, but I think you're correct. The Bills aren't surprising anyone with their defense. Of course, that's pretty much true for every team.

Of course, you hope every guy you draft becomes a Hall of Famer, but you know the practical realities. On the HOF website you can find a list of all the guys in the Hall that shows what number they were picked in the draft. Sure, you can find guys picked all over, but the vast majority of them go in the top of the draft. Talent is talent, and three years of college is usually enough to show who's got the talent. So sure, I hope the guy at 30 is an instant All-Pro, but the chances are really, really good that the guy is going to be Cody Ford and not Anthony Munoz.

Sorry, but I haven't completed my mock draft. I've just got my top five so far; maybe I'll finish it later. #1. Gunner. I mean, the guy just does it all. In depth analysis, college and pro. Solid memory of recent activity. Good command of talent around the league. Not a homer, but sees and points out the best in the Bills. #2. Logic. Just all around solid. When Logic makes a play, you gotta listen. #3. Yolo. A team can't succeed without a Yolo. #4. Hapless. Tireless worker. Solid analyst. Not afraid of close-in, hand-to-hand fighting. #5. Virgil. Goes on vacation during the off-season, but when the real games start, he's ready. Gotta admit, I'm a trade-back fan. I really have drunk the McDermott/Beane Kool-Aid about competition. Trade back and pick four times in rounds two and three. Bring in four good players to compete at four positions. That's how everyone gets better and you keep building for the future.

So far as I could tell, there has been exactly one player drafted 30th who made the Hall of Fame - Sam Huff. I could study the draft for the next 100 hours and I wouldn't be able to tell you which guy in the draft was the next Sam Huff, or the next Thurman. For the past two years, I've had little to no interest in free agency or the draft. Enormous interest in the guys the Bills actually acquired, but no interest in the process running up the drafting or signing. Didn't see Diggs coming, didn't know who Epenesa was when he was drafted, didn't even realize that Sanders was a free agent.

I have a similar feeling. For me it's a combination of a couple of things. First, drafting 30th, the Bills aren't getting a Hall of Famer, so I just can't get all that excited. Second, drafting 30th means that right now there are about 40 possible guys who might be the Bills' pick. I don't have the energy to figure out who the top 20 are and then analyze the bottom 20. It's easier just to wait for the draft, see who they pick, then find out some things about the guy. When you're drafting 8th, there are only 10-12 guys to study. Like others, I have confidence that Beane will get a good player, and I'm interested to see who it is. Trying to figure out who it might be isn't my thing.

This is so true. The strength of the team is not the five most talented players on the roster; it's the guys from six to 35. There are a lot of moving parts to a team, and a quarter to a third of them move on each year. This year the Bills were unusual and are bringing almost the entire team back. But they have some free agents who will move in and take some spots, and they want rookies to move in and take spots, too. That's how they improve, and that's how they keep the roster young. Moving up is for the team that doesn't have stars. The Bills have stars and sure, they'd like a couple more, but they need three or four talented rookies making the squad more than they need one star rookie. If Beane were trading what he has, I'd bet he'd trade his first pick so he could have one more in each of the second and third, instead of trading a first and a second to move up for a better player. In other words, at this point, he'd like four quality rookies over one potential star rookie and one other.

The Dolphins fan makes a good point. You aren't a superstar NFL QB until you show you can do it all, consistently. He's right, Allen hasn't managed tough games in a hostile environment, not like the best have done it. Developing into a star QB is a five+ year project. Josh is on the road. He still could stumble before he becomes a master QB. There are no guarantees. However, if anyone, fans, coaches, players, are asked to name the QBs under 30 likely to become HOF-level stars like Manning, Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Josh is way up near the top of the list. So, yes, he could stumble, but Mahomes is the only other young QB I'd want over Josh.

Especially given how many snaps he plays. Keuchly was often in the top 5 in McDermott's heyday in Carolina. We'll see.

Actually, I'm old enough that I can't remember a lot of the history. But what I meant about ancient history was that the game is different now. I don't see a lot of point in comparing Edmunds to Mike Stratton. Mike Stratton never, never, never could do what the Bills ask Milano to do, and they play the same position on the roster. If you've read all my posts here today, you'll see that I said that I think - I don't know, but I think - that Edmunds' value is the amount of the field that he covers. There is no stat for passes not thrown, but I suspect that Edmunds has powerful impact in the middle of the pass defense. The best corners usually have low passes defended and low interceptions because teams don't throw at them. I think - but I don't know - that Edmunds has that kind of impact in the Bills pass defense. I also know that the classic Tampa 2 asks the MLB to drop into the deep middle zone as the two safeties move out to provide the deep coverage on the wide zones. I don't think there's ever been a middle linebacker with the speed and size (except maybe Urlacher) to handle that assignment. That skill doesn't show up in any stats. McD likes the Tampa 2. And that's really my only point. I think Edmunds does things on defense that are very important to McDermott. He's doing those things right now. Then I add to that Edmunds' work ethic and McDermott's steadfast belief that players get better year after year (until age catches up with them), and I think Beane and McDermott see a guy making a big contribution now and a guy whose contribution will grow.

Well, the Bills numbers aren't that telling. Only Poyer and Milano ahead of him, of guys who play a lot. But I fiddled with it and looked at tackles per snap across the league for all linebackers with more than 40 snaps per game. Edmunds was someplace around 25 or 30 on the list. Now, on a list sorted that way, you'd expect a good MLB to be someplace a good deal higher than that. So, that's some interesting data to put on the table. Still, I'm not convinced. I mean, I'm convinced, I've always been convinced that what to do about Edmunds is an open question, and it isn't a given that the Bills exercise the fifth year, let alone write a big check beyond that. It will depend on how McDermott values him. As I've said, I think McDermott values him much more highly than we do, because McDermott sees things we don't. I don't know that; but I think it's true. I think it's true that Edmunds occupies much more space in the short middle of the Bills zone than almost any other middle linebacker. I think that he covers the run and scrambling QBs from side to side much better than most middle linebackers. I think McDermott sees him as a guy who causes offenses a lot of problems. But then I look at that tackles per snap list, the league-wide linebacker list, and I gotta wonder. Thanks. The ancient history doesn't move me much. Brown and Pos, yes, they made a lot of tackles, but those defenses funneled the run to them. Those guys were serious liabilities in the passing game - it's clear that McD is about stopping the pass, and that's why I think he values Edmunds. There's no question that Edmunds isn't a stud in the run D, but McDermott isn't looking for that stud - he wants a stud in the pass defense.

Come on. If tackles is a deceiving stat, that "late to arrive" is total bs. You can't have it both ways. If the argument is that he takes bad angles, he goes to the wrong gaps, he arrives late on plays, and he has bad instincts, how is it possible that he's in on all these tackles. They aren't phantom tackles. He was actually there for the tackle. Why don't other Bills have all those tackles? Maybe they're the problem.

Enigma is the word. It's enigmatic how a guy who has trouble with "his instincts diagnosing plays, hitting the right gaps, taking the right leverage, defending passes, shedding blocks and tacking" could be 17th in the league in tackles. Particularly when someone else on his team (Poyer) was 12th. Particularly when he played only 15 games and almost everyone ahead of him played 16 - if you extrapolate for 16 games he was 9th in the league in tackles. So how bad can those instincts, gap decisions, leverage decisions and tackling be? Don't get me wrong - what you say rings true to me - what you describe is what I see. But I think we may remembering the mistakes and not remembering every play. 9th in the league in tackles ain't bad. I wonder, for example, if he's really a late arrival on the scene, which is something that has bothered me since he got to Buffalo. Why is he showing up right after the tackle? Well, if he's 9th in the league in tackles, he's showing up on time a lot of the time, and maybe, just maybe, he isn't arriving late on the scene of tackles at all. Maybe he's just pursuing every play and arriving on the scene of tackles that most other MLBs never arrive at. I don't know, there's no stat for late arrivals, but 9th in the league in tackles says he getting to a lot of tackles. Wrong gaps? I saw a lot of that his first season, not much his second, and he seemed to regress last season. How much of the apparent regression was Star's absence? I don't know. I want him to be more physical and more of a sure tackler, but I doubt that his production is nearly as poor as you suggest it is. And, let me say again that watching the games I see it the way you say. I just think what I see is a naive, fan's view. Ninth in tackles is ninth in tackles. My guess is that Edmunds is better than you and I think, and that he's not done getting better.

I think McDermott is better than you think. McDermott is an absolute realist about what he is doing, and he knows that he can't let how he feels about a guy control his football decisions. He is dedicated to the bottom line - you're either doing the job or you're not, you're either improving or you're not. He's dedicated to competition. I don't think he has any trouble at all looking a guy in the eye, a guy he loves, and telling him that his time is up. McDermott is committed to doing his job, and doing his job means having those hard conversations. Where McDermott may have a problem is not with Tremaine the person, but Tremaine the athlete. The idea of having a 6'5" 250 pound guy who runs like a safety playing in the middle of the defense is an idea that McD may not want to give up on. It's really tantalizing to him. Edmunds is probably the best middle linebacker in the history of the game for covering the deep middle in the Tampa 2, a defense McDermott loves. THAT's what McDermott will have trouble giving up on.

Wins isn't a linebacker stat. It's only a QB stat. I've said this before - NO position player other than QB delivers wins. I heard Colin Cowherd talking about this a few years ago, when JJ Watt still was the consensus best defensive player in the league. He asked a Vegas bookmaker how much Watt being out of the lineup changes the point spread. The answer: one half point. The best defensive player in the league, one half point. It's a team game, it's a coaches' game, it's a quarterbacks game. No one should be expecting the middle linebacker to deliver wins. He's just a piece of the puzzle, a more important piece than some other pieces, but just a piece. And that's why I'm not very concerned about this. Edmunds is certainly in the top 15 MLBs, probably in the top 10. Unless you can get me the consensus number 1 linebacker in the league, the performance of the team is not going to change very much by getting someone better at MLB. And if Edmunds fits the style of play that McD wants, then you're almost certainly not going to get someone who fits his defense better. Edmunds is playing what is the fifth or sixth most important position in a game where only one - maybe two - positions really matter.

Thanks. I don't pay much attention to what others are getting The Lawson info makes your point nicely. Sounds like we agree about what McDermott thinks; you're just more disappointed in that assessment than I am. I'm trusting McD.