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Matt_In_NH

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Everything posted by Matt_In_NH

  1. I would like to see what it looks like if you count Diggs as a first round pick which is kind of what that was.
  2. They are going to have to waive Allen to get under the cap. This sucks
  3. I think they should sign a lower end or older vet and draft one early. WR's get a lot of money and college is producing a ton of talent at WR, get one on a cost controlled deal.....
  4. Saying the Cap is just accounting and saying you can have whatever you want all the time just do some accounting are not the same. Cap and cash are different…. True but you still have to be smart. Look at New Orleans spotrac page for the next 5 years and look at all the void money that is “just accounting”.
  5. Is it tax free if I pay with Roth money?
  6. I don't want just one particular guy and I don't think they should fit a huge contract in this year even though they could manipulate. I say fill in with some lower end or older vet FA's at guard, LB, S, RB, DL and then draft WR, OL, DT. For WR the way I see the Bills upgrading is with a first or second round pick....the Hopkins of the world and others are too pricy, college football is outputting a lot of WR talent so get one on a cost controlled deal. WR gets such a premium on the open market, it's not worth it.
  7. Dude they have a whole department with many people include software engineers. McDermott and Beane has said they use it.
  8. Lets move on, we are on two different wavelengths.... Yes he does..... What do you think this guy does? Luis Güílamo Director of Analytics & Application Development
  9. If what you said was true you would be right, but the scenarios you list I assume were just made up guesses. Below is an article from the Buffalo news from last year that showed the Bills opponents start at the 18.2 yard line on average which was outstanding. PlayAction: How the Bills weaponize their kickoff coverage unit https://buffalonews.com › sports › playaction-how-the-bill... Nov 23, 2022 — The Bills are holding opponents to an 18.2-yard average on kickoff returns, second best in the league. Buffalo ranked third in kickoff coverage ...
  10. "Zero teams tackle a returner short of the 25 on every kickoff, true". However, take the average drive start over all kickoffs that are not touchbacks, that is what you need to work with not one individual play. That is the whole point of analytics, you are trying to find a small statistical advantage, it might seem worthless to you but if you find 5 such advantages it becomes something significant. NFL teams have been shown to be wrong in the past, for instance, reluctance to go for it on 4th down has been proven to be a bad philosophy and now you see teams going for it more. in this case, if you can cover kicks well it does work and that is why it's done. You can search around online and find data. Ultimately it comes down to a few tenths of points scored on average per drive if you start at the 25 vs the 20. This is not exact, just trying to show the thinking: You have about 6 kickoffs per game, figure 3 are touchbacks and 3 you get at the 20 on average. Those three drive starts at the 20 equal about 1 point in a game statistically. So 17 points over a season. Those points can be the difference in winning and losing in an individual game. Is it debatable? Maybe, if you can get drive starts inside the 20 the benefit is even greater obviously. The margin of winning and losing in the NFL is thin, any advantage needs to be carefully considered. http://phdfootball.blogspot.com/2013/06/field-position-and-scoring.html
  11. The answer is data/analytics. Because the other team has an average drive start further back than the 25 and statistically that means you give up points. There is really good data to back it up. Over the course of the season it probably means 20 or more less points given up.
  12. The statement I quoted was interpreting things in the most negative way possible possible. The quote talked about "no run game, horrible OL and 1 WR threat. You are picking on the WR part and talking about a couple practice squad guys who got handfuls of snaps down the stretch. Was WR a concern? Yes it was/is. Were there injuries to WR's? Do teams routinely add veteran depth as the season goes on? Did Gabe Davis perform like people wanted, no but he had 836 yards and 7 TD's. No run game.....the Bills were 7th in rushing yards per game. Take away Allen and it falls down but the YPG were there. Did the Bills give up huge numbers of sacks? Allen hold the ball longer than pretty much every QB in the league. Having said that, should OL and WR be addressed? yes they should, its just not all doom and gloom like is being thrown around. The Bills scored the second most points in the league and were also right around there in yards per game. They were among the best at third down conversions. The panic in Bills mafia is driven by recency bias.
  13. If hodgins was still on the Bills he would be “garbage” that is holding Josh back.
  14. You have to consider to some extent the draft position. Oliver would have been a slam dunk as a 6th rounder but as the 9th pick, not so much. Dane Jackson is a great pick in the 6th round. Teller is outstanding, just not with the Bills. I am all for evaluating Beane but to do so you have to guard him against his peers not a list like this. No GM gets a bunch of starters every year. I think even going round by round and looking at snap counts, starts, pro bowls....do that for all GM's and compare. A bunch of guys, especially late round guys contribute on special teams but most fans ignore the value in that. This is nonsense.
  15. He should, some team will overpay for him.
  16. Love poyer but this would seem like a mistake.
  17. This is not surprising, still like the cheapest in the league. I live in NE, they have a similar situation with the Patriots. https://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/threads/season-ticket-prices-have-increased.1160263/ The reason is "because they can"
  18. Joe has been the guy while Howard has been part time, that seems like an obvious result to me. Not sure about Joe, some of his takes are just bad but I think there has been improvement.
  19. Step back and really consider what these shows are. They have to change it up and keep things controversial, it generates responses, like this. That IS THE BUSINESS. You are falling for it. Draft QB's today with real NFL GM's, which ones are taking Herbert and Lawrence over Allen? The answer: ones that will get fired the next day.
  20. What's the number for the WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAbulance?
  21. Dont tell me what to think dude
  22. Lee Smith still gets false starts 2 years after he leaves the team....
  23. I agree completely and am not really sold the OL is a great problem when the plays were to hold the ball for so long. In the Rams game, Josh broke the Bills record for completion percentage and I belive that game had is lowest average time to release a ball in his career. That needs to be more the plan than how they ended the year. If they do anything this year it needs to be developing the quick short game. It actually will open up the longer game.
  24. I thought the stages floating around looked interesting. some of her music is pretty good, I have not expectations really. It was interesting when she did the crotch scratch and sniff, seemed odd and part of me wondered if I saw what I thought I saw, sounds like I did.
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