Rochesterfan

He has also lost significantly more games in higher stakes (and lower stakes) including 2 SBs as a coach and a huge blunder as an OC where he cost his team the victory. Personally if you compare the 2 - Shanny to me is the bigger disadvantage versus McD and it isn’t close. The 49ers also aren’t paying a QB - even though they are on QB 3 (major fail) and therefore have been able to spend more on other players. They are 0-3 on QBs and are starting to think they need an improvement again - big red flag. They have also benefited greatly from 1 major rule change that got them many extra high level draft picks when they lost both OCs and DCs. They have gotten like 6 additional free 3rd round picks because of timing - which of course adds to their talent pool.

So it is better to have a coach that after this year will have missed the playoffs 4 of 8 seasons and has lost to KC (and many other teams in addition) and has a worse win %, moved up to draft their future QB and totally whiffed, but because he has made SBs in the other conference and still lost to the team that beats us - we should change. My God that is just wrong. Let’s get rid of the guy that has made the playoffs 7 of 8 years, has developed a butt ton of players - including the QB- has the second best winning % of any coach during the last 5 years, is universally loved by his players - including Josh - has the best head to head record versus Reid and Mahomes, but let’s just move to another hypothetical coach and expect success. I mean it is not like high end QBs - Burrows, Herbert, Tua, Rodgers, Murray, Lawrence, etc have and will miss the playoffs because coaching. Yeah let’s throw away what we have for a very small hypothetical shot that some other coach will be better. I mean it isn’t like the majority of coaching changes result in failure. It isn’t like we went through 17 years shifting coach after coach and watching talented players want out because of the lack of culture. This quoted argument really kills me - we shouldn’t count their losses to KC because they weren’t in the playoffs - really 🤦‍♂️. So now you are punishing McD because his team makes the playoffs every year and wins games in the playoffs every year. Again I will take a coach that guides his team to the playoffs year after year over a guy that is hitting 50% all the time.

I think with Shanny and Lynch - the Bills are less successful because Josh would be much less effective in the Shanny offense and therefore the team would struggle. Give McD the 49ers with better RBs and better defense - I think you see him win just as much - similar to year 1 with Tyrod and a stellar defense. There are fewer blowouts, but a similar win %. Also in the NFC - he probably has a couple of SB visits and losses to KC and Shanny who can’t beat KC anyway still would be the guy with 0 SBs. That is just based upon their records and the failure Shanny has shown with any QBs with talent that do not follow his plan.

I totally agree - especially coming out of college that Shanny offense would never have worked for Josh. Even now I think Josh would struggle because Shanny doesn’t want guys that make play out of sequence - he wants you to hit the play like it was drawn up - sort of like Tua does in Miami. That has never been Josh’s game - even when he hits checkdowns it is not always in timing with the route or the play because he is looking for a potential big play. He has been better this year, but there are still times - see the Houston game that he passes up the easy play to try and make a bigger play. Shanny doesn’t seem to put up with that and never has.

Yet they seem to win at a clip only matched by KC and better than all of the teams that stack the box and put 8 in the box. The truth is - that is what teams want - they want the Bills to go away from their shell coverages and bring more in the box - so they can sneak a deep throw on a run down. The Bills don’t bite - even when maybe they should because it works. They give up some early runs while teams are still 2 dimensional, but they are playing the long game - the Bills feel they can force FGs and Turnovers at a high enough rate to win and for 7 years now that is exactly what they have done. It is frustrating sure and counter to everything that we were taught about football from day 1 (Run and stop the run) - the modern NFL is about patience and precision and that is what the Bills defense is so good at.

Please don’t say that because it would be wrong. Several QBs have thrown passes that got deflected back and they actually made the reception and scored TD - thus having both a passing and receiving TD on the same play. I believe Marcus Mariota did it most recently. He is the only QB to be credited with a passing TD, a receiving TD, and a rushing TD in the same game since the 1970 merger. It was 3 or 4 RBs and a WR previously - which all goes to show the athletic nature of Josh.

Correct - the only way it doesn’t follow this is if the lateral had hit the ground and been called a fumble. Then he would of gotten a completion, fumble recovery, and a TD, but since it was clean it is a pass completion and a receiving TD - same as on any other lateral play during a game - like Detroit did earlier in the year.

This right here - I believe is a huge part of the problem. McD and Beane have been better than Shanny/Lynch, but in the different conference. The 49ers have lost to the same team as the Bills, but get the huge benefit of losing that game in the SB because the NFC is so much weaker - especially at the QB position. How many SB appearances would the Bills have getting to play the NFC schedule rather than the AFC playoff teams? Shanny/Lynch since 2017 have missed the playoffs 3 of 7 years and unless something changes this year will be their 4th miss in 8 years. So 50% of the years they have no shot because they can’t even get to the dance. Throw the 49ers in the AFC mix and they have 0 SB appearances and are Cincinnati like with limited playoff runs. I think this combo is great - I just do not believe they are as good or better than McD/Beane. Philadelphia- man I like what Howie does with that roster, but I feel the same about them as I do Shanny/Lynch - the one year they put it together and go to the SB - they lose to KC - just like the Bills and I believe if you switched the 2 (Bills/Eagles) the Eagles don’t get a SB trip and the Bills have 2 trips. It is also worth noting that the the last 2 trips to the SB for these teams 2023 SF and 2022 Philly - they both had the luxury of the #1 NFC seed and a bye in round 1. Even with that KC beat both of them - which suggests if they had been in the AFC like the Bills they don’t make the SB either year. I don’t disagree that you named probably the 3 pairs that are on par (or better in KCs case) - (I may even throw in the Baltimore pair as a 4th), but to me that just shows how good the Buffalo pairing is. There is 1 team that has a better record overall than the Bills over the last several years and it just happens that we face them in the AFC playoffs and the NFC faces them in the SB instead. The problem I have when people want to make a change is that you are trying to improve upon a top 3-4 level coach and a top 3-4 level GM and the chances of that are super slim. And for the people that say get a top QB (like Allen) and anyone can make the playoffs - it just isn’t true - Burrow is going to miss the playoffs again - Tua is another guy that will be a failure - Lawrence in Jacksonville was widely considered a top prospect and they stink - Dak Prescott. The list of top QBs that make the playoffs year after year are Allen, Mahomes, and Lamar and they are rock steady at the top. You mess with that and any of those guys could be Burrow in Cincinnati and miss the playoffs 1/2 the time.

I have seen those slides that are very late and the defender is already sprinting forward and I would understand that getting argued as part of football and would totally not call it dirty, but this was not that situation. The defender is literally square and in place when the slide starts. He is not running, he is not coming forward, he is square and looking right at the QB 4 yards away. After the QB starts to slide - the defensive player decides to launch himself at the QB. Ejection was the right call and suspension would and should be on the table.

I totally agree with @GunnerBill on this hit. I thought originally when I saw it live it was borderline dirty. I have seem several of these slides where the defensive player is already in motion and looks to be avoiding the hit and the end result is much worse as the QB ends up driven down and the head smacks the ground as the defender goes over the top. Then I pulled it up after seeing this thread and advance it frame by frame and it is pretty damning to me. You can see Lawrence start to slow down and begin his slide at the 46 yard line. The Texan is lined up at the 42 yard line squaring himself up. Both players are 2 yards on either side of the 1st down marker and 4 yards apart. At that point, the Defender is 100% square like he is going to make a tackle. The next frame you can see both of Trevor’s legs are under him as he is fully committed to the slide. At this point he is between the 45 and 46 yard line and the first down marker is the 44 - so he is sliding short of the line to gain. What I find Damning is that at this moment the defender shifts from square up like you are going to make a tackle - to driving forward toward Lawerence and his arms move from his side to in front. At this point he is still a good 3.5 yards apart and his goal is no longer to tackle, but to hit Lawrence. He takes this time to launch himself at Lawrence and makes no effort to avoid or not strike him as hard as he can. To me that is 100% dirty and I nearly always side with the defenders in these cases. The defender had time to adjust and chose to go through Lawrence and cause the injury. I don’t think it was premeditated, but I also think it could of been avoided and therefore is dirty - he had time to adjust.

If you watch the big Dawson Knox catch versus the 49ers - where Knox is running down the seam - as the throw is in the air there is a great shot of Mack doing the same type of pointing toward Knox knowing the play design worked. I nearly died laughing just thinking about him doing this in the middle of a play.

Are you sure Joe Mixon was good against us with Houston? Please go back and review his numbers and let me know. Maybe I am forgetting some memorable runs in our game this year, but since he was injured and out - I am pretty sure he ran for like 0 yards against us.

It is always the following year. There are parts to the comp plan that can change if teams cut signed FA during the season. So we will be getting Comp picks in the upcoming draft for the FA signings done in this last off season.

Lots of work - interesting stuff, but I really think they let Douglas and Cooper walk. I think in both cases they are players that will sign for more as FA than what the Bills will sign replacements and get them comp picks in 2026. That allows them to extend Benford - which is much more important to the build of the team. I see Beane continuing with small FA pick ups that fill gaps - so there are limited needs come the draft - and then continuing to hit on picks that develop and provide replacements to the higher price veterans. I do not see them overspending to retain guys like Douglas and Cooper when they can replace them and get free picks back. This is what they have been building to.

Maybe, but again they faced top 5% of man since 2019 - even when Dabol was dialing up shot plays down field to Davis, Diggs, and Brown. 2020 they faced man nearly 35% of the time. I am sure there are many factors and the offense and WRs play into it and who knows exactly how the data was actually acquired and if it is 100% accurate, but there seems like their is more to it than whatever is this year. It could be teams we face: NYJ, Miami, NE, KC are all on the schedule every year and maybe they run a higher % of man - I would then expect the other AFC East teams to be higher, but it certainly could be a factor. Just logically- as Man is typically dangerous versus a QB that can run - if this data is true - Josh is the one consistent across the 5 years and we know many times teams try to stack the line and blitz - they also like to have a spy and try to force Josh to move in the pocket on his runs where the spy can catch him more squarely. I actually think the shallow offense is Brady’s counter to man and blitzes - it has also driven the choices in WR - going bigger with bigger catch radius and RAC ability gives the Bills an advantage in these situations.

If that was the case - why have they been in the Top 5 facing man every year since 2019 and the percentage this year is lower than 2020 and 2021. I think it has more to do with Blitzing and having spy’s than who the WRs are. Just my opinion, but the fact that 2020 was 35% with Diggs, Brown, Beasley, McKenzie and Gabe beating teams deep suggests it is not the WRs, but the gameplan that teams use.

I think it has less to do with the WRs - although it may be part of the reason their separation numbers are so bad. I believe it is more that teams have to spy Josh and blitz to stop runs and passes. The Bills have faced large amounts of man most years even with Diggs last year and years prior with Beasley and Brown - suggesting it has less to do with Current WRs and more to do with how teams perceive they must face the Bills Offense under Josh.

I agree there is a major level of paranoia, but it also must have some potential impact. If film study was solely enough - then teams would struggle to disguise blitz packages and QBs with 5+ years would not be tricked by coverages or blitzes or spy’s, etc. It can have an impact even beyond a single game. For example: KC lined up to go for it on 4th down and “acted” like they were trying to get the Bills to jump Offside, but with around 10 seconds left on the play clock - Mahomes just started walking toward the sidelines. The Bills had a player following him and KC took the delay of game, but they may have been looking for something to see if they could sneak him out for a quick pass. Now that is not on film as nothing happened and the play gets sorted by penalty and is not “categorized” as a play, but if Romo (or any analyst) saw KC practicing that for a specific look and then casually mentions during the game on the 4th down - you know watch for this - it might be a good time for a trick and then if it doesn’t happen point out that - well they were setting up something, but this player followed him - that specific play that a coordinator was holding could get ruined because even though it was not on film - it was discussed durning the game as an option and people now move that to a potential trick play. Now does the NFL take that to an extreme - yes definitely, but at the same time you have coaches like McD or Belicheck that won’t even share real injury information or allow media to talk about practices and players positions in preseason - my guess is they hate having production teams scouring their building and watching their specific game planning practices and talking to the coaches about the approach as they look for every edge possible - even slight perceived edges.

I think a lot of it can be chalked up to the KC defensive game plan. 1.) It is a strong unit normally as they are giving up less than 60 yards to any RBs over the course of the game. They can do this because they are not afraid to pressure and blitz both run and pass gaps and play tight behind it. 2.) They were not afraid to match our “big” man package with even more D-Line/LB - several times they had a true 4-3 with a DB off and McDuffie covering as a slot/outside DB. They have good sized and fast LBs that help fill gaps. The Bills countered that with a few double moves and sneaking TEs out deep - Josh unfortunately missed a couple of throws that would have killed the plan. 3.) Several times they brought extra rushers in the middle gaps from tackle to tackle to stop the run and if it was play action or a pass call - try to get quick pressure and force Josh into a mistake. I understand people’s frustration with the short runs especially on first down, but even getting 1-2 yards still keeps the defense honest and forces them to keep trying to stop it - which opened up the TE down field that should of gone for a TD. The defensive gameplan also is what allowed Cooper to get behind the defense a couple of times and make amazing catches. KC has done that several times over the years - they are taking away short to mid quick throws and hoping to pressure and force mistakes, but Josh and Brady were showed patience and stuck to runs that slowed the rush down enough that the OL could handle the DL and give Josh the needed lanes. It also helped this game the WRs that won like Cooper caught the ball - unlike Diggs and James Cook last year that both dropped the shot plays. It was more like a few years ago in the regular season where Knox got behind the D a few times for big gains and TDs and made the catches.

He was told to stop - not because he was a former player diagnosing these plays and telling us what may come - but because he had inside knowledge based upon discussion with the team and watching practices that are closed to media - he was telling us what they actually gameplanned. The teams were complaining to the NFL that he was talking about their “secrets” for specific looks and teams threatened to shut down any info for Him and Nance if it continued. It is the same reason the Brady owning a part of LV and being a broadcaster took so long to happen - there was a ton of stipulations that had to be addressed to ensure information wasn’t passes to other teams. Romo was so great early because he was breaking norms by sharing info on how teams installed a gameplan for that opponent, but that info is then available for other teams to exploit as they see concepts. If he shared thoughts based upon just what he saw on the field it would be one thing, but when he would talk about what “triggered” a blitz based upon formation - that was info gleaned from the discussions with the team and watching specific practices where the gameplan is installed.

That is not correct. They lost to Denver last year 24-9 in week 8. No one was even close to the Bills record before Baltimore won. It was the Bills and everyone else was less than 1 season without a 2 score loss including KC.

They can’t really “refuse”, but they can not report and force the team to cut or put them on a did not report list - which may get your wish for a release. It has happened a limited number of times in the past. It just would not happen with Dodson because the claiming means he gets the rest of his 4.6 million dollar contract - rather than signing for vet minimum or a PS position to help Buffalo. In the end - you report and if things are not great - the agent can make it known he wants released as there are usually a handful of veterans released the last few weeks of the season. He is an interesting fit with Miami as he will help the around the LOS game, but where the Dolphins are terrible is pass coverage and he is not that kind of LB.

Nope - if he is cut and clears waivers there is no contract. If a team claimed him they would be on the hook for the money, but I highly doubt he gets claimed for that reason. It is too much for a back-up player at LB At this time of year for most contenders and no reason for a non-contender to bother with his age. I would expect once he clears the Bills talk to him after the Chiefs game and he gets signed for the minimum as needed.

Agreed and in this case it was not a LB, but a safety that was moving laterally and got sucked in and allowed Taylor to hit the hole. There was a great shot of Hamlin coming up and staying level to the RB and then Taylor bursts 2 more players to the outside and Hamlin reacts slowly and can not get to the hole. I think he lost sight of Taylor behind the larger players and was just a step or two late in getting going and that with his lack of burst - made him 3 steps behind and trailing. We have seen the Bills do that formation shift several times and if Hamlin plays it correctly it is a small gain or a tackle for a loss as we saw other times, but in this defense - if 1 guy is out of play or makes the wrong read - there was a gap to be exploited and no speed for others to recover. We saw something similar on the Henry TD run to start the Baltimore game - Hamlin being a step or 2 slow to his spot and that allowing a huge gain. I don’t think it was wrong - I think 1 player misplayed it and left a hole that could not be filled and that happens - that is what explosive plays usually are. You can’t just excuse the mistake, but to be fair other than that mistake - they gave up 56 yards on 20 carries for a 2.8 average. I think they are still finding their way with lots of new parts. Hyde and Poyer had several games like this their 1st year in this defense as they all learned to play together and react to things.

Great and you don’t think the 2 trades offset for trade costs and Dane is not as good of a player. So you weaken the team for almost no benefit as neither player is worth anything in trade value. A STARTING LT was just traded from a team that thought they were a contender for a swap of late round picks in 2026. Elam and Dane Jackson are worth swapping 7th round picks in 2027 and Elam is still the better player and provides more to the Bills - so why waste it. Yes of course - if you find a sucker offering a 2nd great swap Elam and go get Dane, but don’t make the trade to make the trade.