BullBuchanan

No, but you don't seem interested in having an intelligent discussion. If all he is is a "big slot receiver" then that will keep him off the field even more than if he was a hybrid TE and WR. You can't have a big slow WR in the slot 100% of your offensive snaps.

So your entire thesis is that a thing that has never happened before is definitely going to happen now. Makes sense and puts the rest of this thread in context. I don't play the lottery. I've repeatedly mentioned Kincaid's liabilities as a blocker as limit on his near term ability to get on the field. He's also smaller than you'd like to see in an elite TE and doesn't have elite level athleticism, though he is a very solid athlete. Take a guy like Mike Gesicki who is a far superior athelete with much better size who played in a pro style offense and wasn't a very good blocker coming out of college either. If you told me that was Kincaid's comp, ok I'm on board. ANy talk about Kelce should be immediately and thoroughly ridiculed though. The players couldn't be more different. https://www.nfl.com/prospects/dalton-kincaid/32004b49-4e06-9130-e563-7edd228031c8 https://www.nfl.com/prospects/mike-gesicki/32004745-5349-0798-d83d-d46852aa6fbb

I never disagreed that his impact would be "significant". It's just that some folks here are applying an extreme definition of that word that i find to be incredibly unlikely, regardless of talent. To just say you think he's getting 80 catches next season base don nothing bunch a hunch is ######ed. I don't have any pre-draft feelings about Kincaid at all. By all accounts he was no worse than the 2nd best prospect this year, but absolutely no one had him as an elite level prospect like Pitts, Hockenson, Ebron. Now, you could very reasonably argue that being an elite prospect doesn't matter, because plenty often those guys don't turn out either. Only Hockenson from that list has really turned out so far and it's arguable he still hasn't reached draft status. If we're going to go down that road though, does any of the pre-draft talk about TE's matter? If you go down the list of dozens of TEs drafted over the last decade, you'll find that most of those early round TEs never turned into anything. Of the top 10 TEs in the league right now, only 2 (hockenson, pitts) were taken int he first round and they were both taken top 10. The rest of the group is largely 3rd round + picks (Kelce, Kittle, Goeddert, Andrews,Shultz, Waller, knox) If you wnat to include Njoku in the top 10 you can and he bumps their share to 3 and he was drafted similarly to Kincaid

Not the original Kim, but the new one was there.

Sure, and that chance is very, very close to zero. You're talking about the greatest TE of all time and another that's top 5. If teams could just casually draft the greatest TE of all time any year they wanted int he late first round, they'd all be doing it. Over the last 20 years, there have been 10-15 TEs that were truly special and then a bunch of guys who had some nice years and a list that goes on forever of guys who could have been.

You're casually projecting a rookie TE who was a late first round pick to become a top 10 player next year? Look, Kincaid could become the greatest TE of all time, but people are acting like it's a foregone conclusion based on absolutely nothing, and they've been doing it since the day he was drafted. No one has even seen him play, and his college tape doesn't show a generational player. He wasn't even the positional #1 from a lot of experts. I love the excitement, but I don't love the hype machine and unrealistic expectations for the kid. When Knox was drafted he had ridiculous RAS and that never materialized into a dynamic weapon. Kincaid had far higher production in college, but his measureables aren't elite like say Kyle Pitts.

I guess it depends what kind of numbers you're thinking when you say " a ton". Personally I'll be floored if he eclipses 50 catches without injuries to Diggs/Knox Fromm is on the Commanders

As far as i know, that's not really a thing that any team does long term. Most years, the top 12 personnel team runs it around 30% of their plays, in 2021 Miami was an outlier at 61% and in 2019 the eagles ran it 52%. Neither one of those teams were very good either. That aside, it still means that a big weapon for your team is off the field on 40-50% of offensive snaps.

He'd have to absolutely blow up his rookie year for this to happen IMO. With him playing TE2/Slot WR I don't see how he'll be able to eclipse Knox to be on the field for all the offensive snaps next season. Even if he's really really good, we know he isn't a very good blocker right now and there will be times that schematically you need a WR sized player on the field instead of a second TE sized player. With Knox having a $20M cap hit next year, he's unmovable and as a good bloacker and capable receiver, I see him getting the vast majority of reps in 1 TE sets until 2025 at least.

Yea, but he had to go to the Bears, one of the worst teams in the league, to get that bag. He wasn't getting paid that much by any team with more than 2 winning seasons in the last decade.

I'm not anywhere near this optimistic. The hype train on Kincaid is unreal, and it's going to be nearly impossible for him to live up to it. There are rarely more than 3-4 difference making tight ends in the league at any given time. Maybe we'll get lucky with this kid and he'll be one, or maybe he'll be one of the 7-10 nice players behind that group (which is what knox is) That's capable of having a great game or even a great season. Unless your name is Travis Kelce, Rob Gronkowski, Antonio Gates or Tony Gonzales, I really don't think it matters that much. If the guard turns out to be good, that's cool. That doesn't put games in the win column from my seat. Williams is going to have a very uphill battle to even get on the field over the next 2 years, and frankly I don't like the idea of him replacing Milano even at that point. If you want to celebrate this draft as the best ever, I need our 3rd round pick to have a way to get on the field besides special teams. The pick is Bernard take 2 except maybe worse because he doesn't even play a position that will be open any time soon. Not sure the rest of the class makes the team. So, best case scenario what did we get here? A #2 TE/part time slot receiver, a potential starting guard, and a special teams LB. If that's Beane's best draft ever, I think that's a pretty strong indictment of how poor his drafts have been.

Maybe, but the coach and GM probably didn't have 2 years to be ready to compete. They whiffed on their QB and drafting another would give them a gamble on a completely unknown player that would take at least 2-3 years to bear fruit. While a Super Bowl is unlikely, Rodgers probably gave them the best shot possible over the next 3 years, and it makes sense to give him as much talent as possible. I think they have a better shot this season than the Bills.

Doesn't mean anything for Hall. The Jets are going all in for a super bowl this year, and they'll need all the playmakers they can get.

Josh needs to level up his friend group then.

If Elam doesn't start this year, you have to consider the pick a catastrophic bust for the bills, regardless of how the player does. Not getting starting reps out of a 1st round DB is brutal

Washington has been a dumpster fire for decades. If rubbing what passes for talent there is something different, they should welcome the change. There isn't a player on that roster that should be untouchable.

He had a line that edged out the chiefs in 2020 and we still lost to KC. Allen is a very good QB, but the difference between him and Mahomes is more than O-line play. If Mahomes retired today, he'd already be one of the greatest of all-time. Allen isn't in that conversation and his star would fade rather quickly as he'd be remembered more for potential than accomplishments thus far.

I don't really put much, if any stock into that. GMs are wrong constantly. They all decided Metcalf shouldn't be taken in the first round too.

It ain't Texas where it's been 105 since may. It's 75 degrees in Buffalo right now.

Well Maybe you should, because Beane didn't draft Kuechly or Milano. As for misses, yes there are plenty. VoSean Joseph being notable int hat he didn't even make the roster as a rookie and never played a down in the NFL. Bernard was drafted int he 3rd round last year and was inactive most of the season. Williams was drafted this year in the 3rd round and despite a massive hole int eh middle of our defense, he isn't even being considered for the position. He'll likely be inactive most of the year as well if he can't carve out a role on ST. A better question to ask than what are the misses is "what are the hits?" They traded up in the 1st round to get Edmunds and throughout his time here he was extremely controversial. Yea, he got signed to a pile of money, but the jury is still very much out on whether or not he's actually a good football player. He made two pro bowls, both as alternates. He has never received more than 2 votes for all-pro

I wrote off Bernard before he was drafted. He isn't built to play MLB in the NFL and was abysmally bad last season. Knox is a strawman argument, but no I'm not "high" on him either. He's average, but nothing special at all. You could only think Williams and Simpson are the same if you knew absolutely nothing about them.

Yes to both. He was a good enough prospect that you could make a case for either pick. If they absolutely had to have Torrence, then you trade up. Based on us having Bates already and virtually nothing at MLB, I would have taken Simpson right there in the 2nd. If they didn't want to do that, iw ould have moved back up to get him like I mentioned previously.

Yea, this isn't really a situation where we can say he wasn't available though, because he slid a lot further than he should have. He could and arguably should have been the pick in the 2nd round or should have been a priority trade up. Instead we have two 3rd round linebackers in back to back years and neither one of them are likely going to be a long term solution at MLB

Brown has been mostly terrible since he got here, so maybe this is addition by subtraction. Bates was arguably our best performing lineman last season allowing onlya single sack and has the size and experience to play right tackle. We also signed Brandon Shell who was a solid RT in the past. I wouldn't be sad at all to se eus move away from Brown right now.

The right pick was taking Trenton Simpson when we created a massive hole at the position. Instead the Ravens took him and we all know they have terrible judgement when it comes to front 7 personnel.