BullBuchanan

They just signed Curtis Samuel to be our #2. They aren't paying him 7M/15 guaranteed to be our #4. It's wild to me that so many folks advocate takings WRs high and then use examples of WRs that were drafted in later rounds as examples of how much production they can have. Tank Dell, taken in the 3rd Nacua, drafted in the 5th WRs are a crap shoot. in 2023 they mostly had decent production, but you're taking 45-60ish receptions. On this team that would put them 3rd-5th depending on how much target share they get and how much target share our own growing stars like Kincaid, Shakir and Cook utilize. Teams like Baltimore and Minnesota (Post Jefferson injury) had pretty much bare cupboards so it makes sense that a rookie who performed well would get as many targets as they could handle. In Seattle, they had a gap at #3 and Smith-Njigba (1.20) filled it with 63 receptions on 93 targets In LAC, Quentin Johnson went one pick later (1.21) but only mustered 38/67 Zay Flowers (1.22) went 77/108 as the only receiving threat on the team much of the season Jordan Addision (1.23), Jayden Reed(2.19), Rashee Rice(2.24), Tank Dell (3.06), Josh Downs (3.16) all provided similar value to Flowers. Nacua (5.42) was best in class. Most of the rest of the class fared far worse. For context, the Bills had: Diggs: 107/160 Kincaid: 73/91 Davis: 45/81 Cook: 44/54 Shakir: 39/45 Samuel went 62/91 last year. Expect him to do more with a similar or less target share than Davis had. Expect Shakir to get at least 20, if not more targets) Who are you taking targets from to feed to a rookie? The argument has to be that you're taking them from Samuel, but that argument doesn't make any sense at all given what they just ponied up to go get him in the first place. More realistically I expect a rookie to best case scenario see 40-50 targets int his offense by taking a few from Diggs and getting more kicks at the can due to increased offensive efficiency. Kincaid got 80 because there were 80 there to be had. Once Knox went down, he stepped into a full time starting role and made the most of the opportunity. For a rookie WR drafted this year, you'd have to have a major injury to Diggs or Samuel imo, and even then, I'd expect Shakir to see most of the benefit.

I don't really see us getting over the hump by getting Josh more weapons when he doesn't maximize the value of the ones he already has. Of course it's never a bad thing to have more weapons on offense, but we already know winning shootouts isn't the way to win Super Bowls. If you can't stop Mahomes, you won't win. Our weapons gave us every opportunity to win last season as they did in the 13 seconds game, and yet we still lost. Going into next year with Cook, Diggs, Kincaid and Shakir should be enough to get the job done for top end talent with Samuel, Johnson and whatever rookies they bring in as reserves. Realistically, any rookie they bring in is likely to be no better than the 5th ( or even 6th) most used weapon in the passing game in 2024 or even 2025. There's an outside chance of it sure, but it's not likely unless there are injuries.

Not really. Davis is a one-trick pony that can only effectively run deep. He may be better at that one trick, but I don't think it will lead to more production. Samuel runs far more routes than Gabe does at a high level, and I see him being more productive in this offense from game to game with a lower ceiling in any given game. Shakir on the other hand gives us that high ceiling. He's an explosive player that could definitely have monster games.

Ok. So you do that so now your WR5 is locked up, but who are you starting at Free Safety? The 4th round rookie you drafted instead of prioritizing your needs? Who is your first CB in when Benford or Douglas get a breather or get banged up? Cam Lewis? I just don't see it as a high priority need at all. You can get productive WRs on the street.

Maybe maybe not. I don't see any of those things you listed as dire. I guess we'll see what Beane thinks. BTW Diggs is 30 and Samuel is 27, and Shakir has 2 years on his deal, not one. Where was he drafted?

Like I said, It wouldn't shock me to see them get on in round 3/4, which would align with them NOT passing on WR drafts and taking advantage of the depth rather than the top end talent. But given that I think they'll be drafting one late, I think the replacement is likely to be an eventual WR2/WR3 instead of a future WR1. I don't see Samuel as an elite player, but he's guaranteed 2 years of salary, and at $7M per, the Bills likely envision him being a significant part of their offense. Diggs has a $22M dead cap hit if we move on from him after this year, so again, he's a part of our offense through next season, and Shakir is cost controlled and on the rise. Furthermore, rookie WRs, even future great ones, rarely make significant impacts. For all of those reasons, I think it unlikely that Beane views WRs as a top priority going into the draft. We have massive gaps at S, OL, CB that need to be addressed and evena hole at DE and I wouldn't be surprised to see all of them picked in the draft ahead of 2024's WR4/WR5

I would be rather shocked to see us get a WR in round 1 at this point for multiple reasons. I even think round 2 is a stretch given our needs. Samuel is basically guaranteed to be here in 2025, as are Diggs and Shakir. I would expect any rookie drafted to be brought along slowly. Maybe we use our 4th to trade up for a WR or maybe we get a couple of late round prospects and see if one of them can become the next Shakir or Gabe Davis. More likley that they'll draft Diggs replacement next year when they should have less holes to fill and it makes more financial sense.

Working 11 years at one shop doesn't help. Gotta move around to get paid.

Solid pickup. It surpasses what i thought was possible in terms of talent given the money we had and the market. The money is a little rich for a guy who's perennially been called a breakout candidate that never did, but I guess it's the going rate for a warm body with a history of production. It's less than what he made with Washington, so that's interesting. With Hollywood brown going to KC fr 1/$11M, I guess Beane was looking at a different kind of market. $15M guaranteed means he's definitely here for 2 years, and in an ideal world, he's your #4 by the start of next season, making the $7M a lot. I still have my hopes pinned on Shakir becoming our top weapon going forward. He was an absolute beast that was under utilized last year. This does give us some buffer to not have to take a WR early and given our holes on defense, we might have to wait until after the first two picks to get more weapons.

and he would cost about 1/3 of what Davis just got. If you could have Davis for Chark money, he'd still be here.

DJ Chark might be a better player and fit than any of the names highlighted.

It's kind of insane to learn the Mike Williams has already been int he league 7 years, is just two years younger than Keenan Allen, has only amassed 309 receptions over that span and has a career high of 1146 yards receiving that he set 3 years ago. Meanwhile Diggs has 317 receptions over the last 3 years and has eclipsed that yardage total each year. Wouldn't surprise me to see Mike Williams get paid stupid money, even though his best days are likely behind him and they weren't that good to begin with. I remember when he broke out after disappointing in his first couple seasons, but even though I've watched a lot of him and had him on my fantasy teams at various points, I never really quantified how little production he's had in his career. Big games would have you thinking he's elite but then he'd disappear and eventually get seriously injured. I'd stay a million miles away from a guy like that on anything more than a prove it deal.

That's not the way Beane drafts. If all of the round 1 talent is gone by the time we draft, he wont take one just to take one. Ditto in round 2. We draft so late that the only way they can guarantee a Round 1 WR is to trade up, which is unlikely given how many needs we have.

No I'm not. He won't be competing for WR2. He'll take snaps away from WR3 if anything.

I expect them to draft a WR or two somewhere. I'm not certain where. I could easily see them go defense in the first two rounds though. I accounted for both scenarios in my statement.

We'll see. We thought the same thing about Sherfield. I think only 4 are likely to be active on gameday. We'll carry 5 or 6 on the roster. Shorter might be one and another late rd pick or FA could be the other

1. Diggs 2. Hollins/Rookie 3. Shakir 4. Hollins/Rookie That's the plan.

I'm trying not to be insulting, but you're making it hard. Saying that the player isn't talented enough to play for a team that's supposed to be a contender IS NOT the same thing as saying that a team CANNOT be a contender if he's on the roster. It's about expectations. This is real basic sentence structure and logic dude. Nothing even to do with football at this point.

I won't because that was never my argument.

I forgot why I had you on block for the last few years and now I remember. You don't understand the most basic level of common sense.

Somebody has been asleep the past couple weeks apparently: SS, C/G, WR in addition to known holes at FS, WR, DE. We need to get 4 starters just to field a starting squad and at this point in FA we know they aren't going to be top tier. We have two realistic chances to grab rookie starters, but it's unlikley they'll perform at a high enough level at important positions to give us a realistic shot at a championship. Hence - rebuild year. Not saying we won't win 10+ games, but unless something massive happens, virtual guarantee we don't compete for a SB this year. Ok, let me know when we have a GOAT receiver and GOAT QB like KC and I'll be on board with your terrible example.

Again, they have arguably the two best players to ever play their respective positions at QB and TE. It's not a real example.

No, a rebuild year because we created several large holes with massive holes already on the roster and we have not been serious about replacing them. We can't get a WR2 in the draft because McD doesn't play rookies. Unless there's a trade (unlikely), Hollins is your #2 for at least 6 games.

Tom Brady won a super bowl With David Givens, Marcus Patton and Deion Branch too. We aren't the Chiefs.

he has talent, but not enough talent to play on a team that's supposed to be a contender. This is starting to feel like a full rebuild year.