Doc Brown

O-line pass blocking was above average last year for the Jets. His numbers last year in almost every advanced metric weren't that different than his last year in Green Bay. He'll have a similar year to last year at best.

He was 25th in QBR last year. He was 20th in EPA per play in minimum 250 snaps. This was despite Garrett Wilson and DeVante Adams at his disposal. The offensive line was slightly above average according to most of the advanced metrics yet he still took 40 sacks last year. Rodgers in his prime was the best QB I've seen in my lifetime but father time caught up to him even before he tore his Achilles. Plus, Rodgers likes to play in the spread from the shotgun. Arthur Smith has never heard of that formation. Who's their best WR besides DK Metcalf? It's not good depth there. Other than that, I think he'll be great.

James Cook is obviously a way better running back than Ray Davis at this point in career. In defense of Davis though he was often brought on in short yardage situation and when we were just trying to run out the clock late in games. That's why he was third in the league into running into stacked boxes (8 men in the box). He was also 4th in the NFL in missed tackles created per attempt so I do expect him to get better as Cook and Singletary made quite the jump in their 2nd season. Rookie wall and everything. The one game where Cook missed Davis went 20 carries for 97 yards so he's capable at least.

You have a unique writing style. Do you just hit the enter bar after each sentence or thought? I feel like I'm being shout at. I was hoping for Haley in 2024.

What's funny about Metcalf is the amount of people on here that were like DRAFT THIS FREAK SHOW. We take fricken Cody Ford. It's pry the only WR I can remember this board pounding the table for that hard in the 2nd round. The hit/bust rate is subjective and feel free to find any good studies. PFF has the toughest criteria I've seen if interested in reading. A drafted player is considered a “hit” if his snap percentage over the first four seasons reaches at least 2/3rds of the baseline for a full-time starter at his position from 2006 to 2021. Round 1: WR hit rate - 56.9%, -3.8% relative to pick expectation. RB hit rate - 60.6%, +0.1% relative to pick expectation. Round 2: WR hit rate - 26.3%, -3.1% relative to pick expectation. RB hit rate - 35.3%, - +6.4% relative to pick expectation. If you base it on pure starts it gets complicated because of the running back by committee approach but it's a better indication of WR success in the 2nd round. This is an older study looking at just starts from draft picks where they started at least half of the games in their career from 2005 until 2014. WR's The first round success rate is 58% and the second round is almost as good at 49%.

Explain Trump's protectionism economic policies then.

You're right. The 2nd round is where you want to draft premium position players like Metcalf. I think there's only about a 50% bust rate with WR in the 2nd round. Here's hoping Coleman isn't one of those. I was talking about more where we draft in the late 2nd. I think we got Cook at 63 maybe? Rounds 3 through 4 are fine too especially in a running back by committee approach like the Bills have. We drafted Cook because of his speed and pass catching ability knowing we had Singletary/Moss that were more run between the tackle backs with some power. You'd try and find another RB like that to compliment Davis and maybe even Ty Johnson if he sticks around.

O'Cyrus Torrence and the Ryan Bates competition is really the only thing I can lean on thinking back that this is the case. He may rely more on his positional coaches when making that decision.

That's kind of where you can catch the grifters in conservative media. The tariff policy for example. Traditional conservatives know that the power of the purse should be in the legislative branch and that Trump is violating the constitution with his tariffs. They're also pro free trade and not isolationists. Seeing some twist themselves into pretzels trying to explain why tariffs are a good thing and not a direct tax on the American people is hilarious to me.

What I always wonder about McDermott is if it's a tie in his mind does he give the vet the job or the younger guy?

I've always agreed with this approach to foreign policy as laid out by Levin here. This is what I'm talking about with the split between MAGA conservatives and traditional conservatives when it comes to foreign policy. Trump trying to appease both is tough to do.

A top 15 RB because of the higher hit rate at the position alone, you can draft a 1st/2nd round prospect in the 3rd round, you get him in his peak physical years, and you don't have to worry about giving him a 2nd contract. Edit: I'm making the assumption that I don't know whether the pick will work out or not.

I disagree here. Cook was a 2nd rounder compared to those three and had a different profile as a smaller but more explosive back that could take it to the house if able to get to that second level. You can find a lot of those in the draft in the first few rounds every year. It's no guarantee that the drafted RB will give you close to or even over exceed what we had in Cook but when managing a roster that's how I'd approach the RB position. Shoot. I forgot that Beane was allowed to have 4th round picks at the time when they drafted Davis. My mistake. Would I hate it if Cook signed between $10 and $12m per year? Probably. I wouldn't kill Beane for it though.

Beane's drafted four running backs in the top three rounds since 2018. So it's half of his drafts so far. It's the best way to get value out of a RB as you're likely drafting a first/second round talent a full round later who will usually be more NFL ready than any other position. He's already in his prime years physically and will shortly fall off a cliff after his first contract. Go get your Cook replacement in the 2nd or 3rd round next year and hopefully get a comp pick for him. Use the draft pick the same way as Cook and four years later wash, lither repeat. I do agree that Beane should take more shots in both trading for possible #1 WR's and making it more of a priority each draft.

First of all, please never respect my opinions. I thought the internet was just for nerds when it first came out and turned my basement into a bunker for Y2K. Secondly, signing a premium position player in his prime I don't consider going "all in" given it's a four year commitment. The 2021 Rams went "all in" with the Miller and Beckham trades and it worked out for them. We're overpaying for all these mediocre WR's (Palmer, Samuel) for about half the money that don't move the needle much at all. I don't ever recall a time in Bills history where we traded for a 27 year WR with promising production that may have been underutilized in the previous offensive system that also has mixed character reports so I guess it's a risk in that sense. Von Miller was a much bigger risk given his age and it backfired. I just think when you have the opportunity to get an elite player in his prime (which I think Metcalf is) at a premium position you don't think twice and pull the trigger. Hell, the Bengals just did with two WR's around the same ages.

No. Trading for Metcalf for a 2nd like the Steelers did and signing him to a four year deal isn't going all in when they'll get him in a WR's prime years at age 27-30. Our offense after trading for Diggs at 27 went on to average the four best seasons in offensive yards in franchise history. RB was an afterthought.

We already tried that with signing Damien Harris to replace Singletary because of Beane's whiff of a draft pick with Moss. Dobbins has missed more games than he's played starting his rookie year. Chubb was Cleveland Brown's fans most beloved player and his injury was so gruesome they didn't even resign him at $2.5m as he averaged 3.3 ypc last year. Those are kind of worst case scenario signings when you don't draft and develop properly.

He often talks out of both sides of his mouth because of the split between traditional conservatives and MAGA conservatives on specific issues despite their being an overlap on most. Specifically when it comes to foreign policy where most the former see strength through force and more of the latter see avoid wars at all costs. Plus, he has the added barren of his most important responsibility of doing what's best for America as a whole. You saw the same out play with him in how he handled Covid. As president he said it should be up to the individual states and he'll provide whatever federal assistance they feel they'll need. However, on Twitter that night to appease the MAGA base of his supporters he'd tweet or retweet Democratic governors that had a more strict Covid policy. It's not that unique for a president to battle appeasing both his own party and what he thinks is best for America. Trump has the added burden though of appeasing two sides of his party while doing what he thinks is best for the American people. I really don't envy him.

It's so o-line dependent though. You have to have the guts as a GM to give an elite RB like Barkley a big contract with the assumption that your o-line will stay good. Barkley behind a crappy Giants o-line gained 3.9 ypc. Behind a decent o-line in Philly he averaged 5.8ypc. They can't showcase their skills until they get to that second level of the defense. Barkley amazingly had more yards before contact in 2024 for the Eagles (4.1 yards before contact) than he did yards per carry for the Giants in 2023 (3.9 yards per carry, 1.9 yards before contact). The next closest running back to Barkley was Gibbs at 3.33 yards before contact. For comparison, James Cook had 2.6 yards before contact which ranked 5th in the league last year. Ray Davis only had 1.9 yards before contact mostly because he doesn't have the vision that Cook has and he faced way more stacked boxes. Plus, he's just not as fast.

You play the odds though. A 2nd contract for any position is more likely to hit than a 2nd contract to a RB. It's why their franchise tag is the lowest of any position besides kicker and punter.

It's got to be premium position guys with playoffs on the mind. 1.) Coleman 2.) Groot 3.) Hairston

Surprised you didn't go with Dubenion over Butler.

Right but Gurley signed his 4 year $60m contract after finishing 2nd in the MVP voting. It's why I would never give a RB a top of the market 2nd contract unless it was just a one or two year extension. Also, the fact that teams are willing to take a chance in free agency on players like Gabe Davis only enhances the argument that quality outside WR's are much harder to find than running backs.

True. I mean you could say Jeff Wright over Kyle Williams if you're stuck in that time frame. Speaking of which, did the mod punish me for something I didn't know about as my posts keep getting deleted.

I despised the guy and I'm so glad we're no longer giving a WR diva on the decline the key to the city. LOL. I'd say in his prime he was the best WR to put on a Bills uniform even though his prime wasn't as a Bill that one season.