Logic

I'm curious: if Dawkins holds his ground against Jones and Allen hits Shakir for six on that play, are you still saying it was a bad decision?

How can you say that, though? The assumption that the Bills would definitely still have been able to score a TD after securing a first down there is a very big assumption, indeed. The Chiefs have an elite red zone defense, and the Bills had only scored once the entire second half. Even the assumption that Bass would still ultimately have made the kick that sends the game to overtime seems like a big one, based on Bass's recent struggles even in-close. I just think the premise "the short throw for the first down is superior to the touchdown" in that instance is a flawed one, based on assumptions of future success that --- based on the way the season and game had played out -- seem potentially unfounded.

This is where I'm at. The Chiefs have an excellent red zone defense. There's absolutely NO guarantee that if you extend the drive on a hypothetical Diggs 1st down, that you'll have another shot at a touchdown as open as the Shakir route was. The Chiefs had also done an excellent job limiting explosive plays by the Bills all night -- 0 plays over 20 yards. So now, a receiver open in the end zone on an explosive play for a go-ahead touchdown -- how do you pass that up to go for a 4-10 yard completion instead, just based on the ASSUMPTION that you'll still be able to ultimately score a touchdown? In a vacuum, you can sit there and say "well, the smart play is to bleed more clock, continue the drive, take it down to almost no time, AND THEN score". But again, there's absolutely no guarantee that you're still going to get that opportunity. It's just hard for me to fault Allen for taking a shot to an open player in the end zone -- which, make no mistake, would likely have been completed had it not been for Dawkins getting walked into the QB -- for six, when the alternative would've been a mere 1st down and then hoping/assuming that you'll still be able to score a TD. If an explosive play for a touchdown is there against an elite defense to put you ahead with under two minutes left, you take it. That's where I'm at. Execution is what doomed the play, but I'm okay with the decision itself, because football isn't played in a vacuum.

Put simply: I agree with the premise of the post. I like Joe Brady and I think he has earned serious consideration for the OC job in 2024 and beyond. I do NOT think the Bills should hire him without interviewing other candidates, too. Brandon Beane always talks about "turning over every stone" to improve the Buffalo Bills. I see no reason that shouldn't apply to the offensive coordinator position. There should be no shortage of innovative offensive minds champing at the bit to work with Josh Allen. Interview them all. If Joe Brady is the best man for the job and convinces you he ought to stick around, then so be it.

I feel...mostly exhausted and sad today. Not devastated/heartbroken like in the past, just....ugh. Resigned. Disappointed. I think the reason is that there wasn't any blown call, fluke play, or baffling coaching decision to point to for the loss (yes, the fake punt was dumb, but it's not what cost the Bills the game. It led to no KC points and Bills got the ball back). Instead, the loss happened due to failures in all three phases -- offense, defense, and special teams. -- The offense was mostly great, but it didn't hit a single explosive (20+ yard) play, while KC had 8. At the end, when it mattered most, they couldn't seal the deal. -- The defense was carved up. Mahomes was the hot knife, and our defense was the butter. Yes, it was ridiculously injury depleted. Yes, the specific injuries -- Bernard and Rapp, out middle of the field defenders -- were particularly devastating against an offense like KC that eats up the middle of the field. Whatever reason you want to give, our defense offered basically no resistance all game. -- The special teams was bad the whole way through, culminating in a missed field goal. As for coaching, my only nits to pick would be that the defense was slow to adjust (I'm not sure how much they could've done anyway, when your defensive signal caller is out and you're starting a guy off the couch, it really limits how complex you can make your defense), and the fake punt was dumb. For once, I DON'T think coaching was the primary reason for the loss. Failures in execution are what doomed us. Not many, but enough of them in key moments -- Diggs' dropped pass, Sherfield's dropped pass, Dawkins getting walked into Allen, Bass's miss -- to spell defeat for the Bills. I think I'm just exhausted because I don't have an easy fix or an easy recipe to overcome this hurdle we can't seem to overcome. Mid-season I said that I wanted McDermott gone. Then he got considerably better at coaching. Started being more aggressive on 4th downs (to the point that he routinely goes for it on 4th on his own side of the field, even early in games), started coaching more aggressive and disguised defense, started being a bit looser on the sideline and in the locker room...in short, he seemed to make a concerted effort to improve on a lot of the gripes everyone had about him. He then coached six straight wins to get to the divisional round. While we can argue until we're blue in the face over whether McDermott should be replaced or not, the fact is that it's NOT happening this offseason. So what do the Bills do? Where do we go from here? They'll no doubt draft some exciting young players, sign a guy or two, lose a guy or two. They'll line up again next season top 10 or top 5 in Super Bowl odds. They'll probably win the AFC East again. But then what? I'm back to feeling like I felt last offesason: Nothing really matters until January. It's all just noise until the divisional round comes. And what should make me feel this morning like the Bills will have a better chance of clearing that hurdle next season? I'm just...exhausted. Sad, disappointed, dejected. Exhausted.

Sure, there are three rules. 1. Everyone must bring either good whiskey, good weed, or good cheese. 2. STFU during the game 3. Be nice to my cat I'll leave the front door unlocked.

I'm happy to watch the game with other fans in person that are as into the game as I am, or occasionally at a Bills Backers bar. But by and large, my days of watching the game with casual fans, people who wanna talk through the whole game, ask a bunch of questions, chat about unrelated topics, etc...are long over. It's the reason I've been doing "Super Bowl Party for One" for years. I just really love football and want to concentrate on the game. The nuance of it, the visuals, the audio, the commentary. I want to fully take in the game. There are plenty of opportunities to be social OUTSIDE of football. You want to watch the game with me? Great. Let's watch it. You wanna use the game as pretext to be social or to have a party? I'm really just not interested. I don't mean to be a curmudgeon, that's just how I feel. As for Tweeting or message board-ing during the game. I don't know. I've literally never tried it. Maybe I'd like it? I don't know. Perhaps I'll give it a shot next year during an early season game.

I'm not. I like checking in on the forums right up until 15 minutes before kickoff, and then right after the game ends (presuming it's not a loss, because this place is just miserable and intolerable after most losses)...but DURING the game? No internet, no Twitter, no talking to any other humans, really. Just locked in on the game. Pacing during commercials, unless someone hands me a book or magazine to read or I put Red Zone on the laptop. I'm a stress ball during games, to be honest, and the last thing I can do is think of pithy remarks to type on a message board.

You just keep doing it. You can't even SEE that you're doing it. How do you know, Scott? How do you know that this is as good an opportunity as they'll ever get? How do you know they won't go 15-2 next season, get the 1-seed and a bye, then face the Texans and Browns en route to a Super Bowl? You're convinced that if they don't do it this year, they likely never will. I'm not. That's fine. Like I said four posts ago, we can agree to disagree.

There's the "glass half full" vs "glass half empty" thing again. Sunday is "as best a shot as [the Bills] will get against KC", yet you go on to say "I guarantee you KC won't ever have this ***** a skills group around Mahomes again. But what about the Bills? Maybe the Bills will never have this poor of a WR group around Allen again. Maybe the Bills will never have this injury-depleted a defense heading into a playoff matchup with KC again. My point is that you seem to be viewing the Bills as being in their "this is the best shot the Bills will get" window, but why? Why does that thinking apply to Buffalo and not KC? Why do you go on to say that KC will assuredly be getting better around Mahomes in the future, but not apply the same assumption to the Bills, that they may be getting better around Josh Allen in the future? I fully agree that it's a huge game for the Bills, a "put up or shut up" moment, a legacy game, an opportunity to stake their claim to history. All of that. But this idea that people have that it's "now or never" for Buffalo, as if they're not gonna continue to be good under McDermott and Allen, as if they're not gonna have a bunch more cracks at it, as if only OTHER teams get better, while the Bills will only get worse and older. I just don't buy into it. Huge game this Sunday. HUGE game. But if the Bills don't win? Life doesn't end. They'll line up next season with a 28 year old Josh Allen under center and a top 10 NFL roster and once again be on the short list of Super Bowl favorites. Enough with the "this year or no year" stuff, in my opinion. It's overblown.

Honestly, I haven't seen enough from Joe Brady yet to feel totally heartbroken if he gets a job elsewhere. Don't get me wrong: I like a lot of what I've seen so far, and it seems like he may have a bright future. But he hasn't exactly proven himself to be an indispensable, unreplaceable, brilliant offensive mind that should have Bills fans weeping if he departs. If he gets the OC job here for next year, great. If he's hired away, so be it. I wouldn't hate a fresh mind with fresh ideas being brought in. There should be no shortage of capable offensive minds champing at the bit to work with Josh Allen.

It comes back to the "glass half full" vs "glass half empty" outlook that has always been the reason that you and I don't see eye to eye, Scott. You could look at multiple years in a row of going to the playoffs but not reaching the Super Bowl as a failure, and an indictment on the GM. Or you could look at it as the mark of a roster that is built well enough that it consistently wins division titles and makes the playoffs at a higher rate than almost any team in the league. Likewise, you could look at this team with its four years of elite QB play and no Lombardi to show for it and see only the teams that have emerged "better/more successful" like the Bengals, or you could notice the teams that have great QB play and HAVEN'T had the success the Bills have had -- the Chargers and Cowboys, for instance. Personally, I view the fact that the Bills are a consistent double digit win team, a consistent playoff contender, and are perennially mentioned among the realistic Super Bowl contenders as a sign that their GM has built a sustainably good roster. If you will only view said GM as a success once he's won a Super Bowl title, then so be it. Another situation where we can agree to disagree.

If the only measure of a GM's success is winning the Super Bowl, then 99% of the NFL GMs who have ever held that title are failures.

Respectfully, I would suggest that this whole season has been a referendum on Brandon Beane. The Bills likely don't get to the playoffs without the contributions of Cook (drafted), Torrence (drafted), McGovern (FA), Brown (drafted), Kincaid (drafted), Shakir (drafted), Bernard (drafted), Oliver (drafted, re-signed), Floyd (FA), Douglas (trade), etc. Add in the "next man up" contributions of guys like Dane Jackson and AJ Klein and Baylon Spector and Deonte Harty and Trent Sherfield in recent weeks, and it equals an impressive roster with impressive depth, built by Branodn Beane. I get what you're saying. Playoff games against the Chiefs will always be measuring stick games. But the fact that the Bills are even IN this position is a testament to the roster-building of Brandon Beane.

It's not just rushing TDs. Josh had a higher EPA, CPOE, and QBR, threw for more yards, had 17 (!) more total TDs, a better TD/TO ratio, and more Game Winning Drives. And if we're gonna play the "ifs and buts" game, we get to subtract interceptions from Josh's totals for WR drops, too, and to mention that he had to deal with a midseason switch at offensive coordinator, which Mahomes did not. All told, looking only at THIS SEASON, and looking at the raw numbers, Josh Allen had a better year than Patrick Mahomes. It would be nearly impossible to say otherwise with a straight face.

With only one more day to get on the field and still being full DNPs... I'm not confident that Bernard, Benford, Rapp, or Davis will be playing this week. Great to get Rasul, Taron, and Dodsen back, but missing the rest will be tough.

I'd like to continue to add to the offense in a big way this offseason regardless. Specifically, they suddenly seem pretty set at OL, TE, and RB1 (and obviously QB). Go get a 1st round WR (trade up if need be), another mid round WR, and a viable RB2, and they'll be rolling. As it is, the offense has a much brighter long term prognosis going forward, given the career trajectories of Cook, Kindcaid, Shakir, and the OL. But that's no reason to stop adding. MAKE LIFE AS EASY AS POSSIBLE ON JOSH ALLEN. But this is all a discussion for AFTER we win the Super Bowl.

The thing that stands out to me is that our passing offense simply looks to be "behind the times". When I look at the passing offenses of Sean McVay, Matt LaFleur, Kyle Shanahan, Mike McDaniel, Bobby Slowik -- so, basically, all of the Shanahan coaching tree guys -- I see creativity, cheat motions, orbit actions, variety, legal pick plays, and receivers who are schemed wide open. When I look at the passing offense of Dorsey and now Brady, I see more or less static formations, less creative personnel usage and deployment, less variety, and much less of receivers being so open that you wonder "how the heck did that happen?". To be clear, it's not that there's NONE of this stuff. This offense does, at times, show some of these things. It's just that if you watch it over the totality of a whole game, and then compare it to the Texans, Rams, Packers, etc, it just doesn't seem nearly as dynamic and modern. I don't believe this is something that can be fixed in-season. I'm hoping the Bills do a thorough offensive coordinator search in the offseason. Let Brady interview and give his vision for the offense going forward. If he wins the job, then so be it, but don't just hand it to him. I want more modernity and creativity in the Bills offense. I want to see what Josh Allen would look like in a truly forward-thinking offense that makes life easier on him.

Fallout? Not sure there would be much. Beane remains GM. McDermott remains HC. Joe Brady will either be named OC or they'll do a more thorough search. I'd bet on a defensive coordinator being hired, likely Babich or Washington. The Bills will draft and sign some players. Some players will leave in free agency. Then they'll line up and play again next year and be top five in Super Bowl odds again, because they're a good team with a good roster and an elite QB. The window is open and will remain open.

Absolutely agree. That was my favorite part of the article.

I'll post just the intro, but there's obviously more to the article. Just thought it was funny that this has picked up enough national steam to warrant an article on The Ringer. https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2024/1/18/24042427/buffalo-bills-pit-highmark-stadium-2024-nfl-playoffs-josh-allen Orchard Park, New York, is a strange place. First of all, not a ton of orchards there, in my experience. Far more Tim Hortonses. But more specifically, Orchard Park is an unassuming bit of flat land located 12 miles away from downtown Buffalo. Founded in 1803 by a man named Didymus and his wife, Phebe, it sits just off of Lake Erie, in the heart of a snow band that consistently pummels the area while other nearby towns remain dry. The wind swirls mercilessly and painfully. And as the home to the Buffalo Bills and Highmark Stadium (née Ralph Wilson Stadium), Orchard Park is a plastic-table graveyard that also regularly sees grown men covered in ketchup and mustard, hard liquors of all colors consumed out of bowling pins, and a man/child/golden retriever who’s so gloriously ungainly that his juke moves are confused for fake slides. But currently, there’s something going on that’s weird even by Orchard Park standards. Something supernatural. Something that eludes explanation and exceeds whatever good mojo might come from donating to opposing players’ charities and whatever bad mojo might come from still having O.J. Simpson’s name emblazoned on your team’s Wall of Fame. There is a pit now, and it must be fed. And you’re telling me this hole in the ground has magical properties? Yes, I am. The Buffalo Bills came into the season as one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl. Then Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles in a game against the Bills in Week 1, and everything went ***** bonkers: The Bills lost that game on an overtime punt return; then, in a blowout win over the Dolphins in Week 4, cornerback Tre’Davious White tore his Achilles (and linebacker Matt Milano broke his leg a week later); and then the Bills went on to lose games to the Jaguars, THE PATRIOTS, and, most embarrassingly, the Broncos (on a last-second field goal that happened only because the Bills had 12 men on the field on the previous missed attempt). Buffalo fired offensive coordinator and expected-points-added merchant Ken Dorsey after that loss to Denver, even though he had no connection to the special teams unit (but let’s not get into that). After another overtime loss, to the Philadelphia Eagles, the Bills went into their bye at 6-6, with just a 15 percent chance to make the playoffs and with games remaining against the Kansas City Chiefs, the Dallas Cowboys, and the Miami Dolphins. Somehow, the Bills haven’t lost in the six games since. They took down the Dolphins in Week 18 to win their fourth straight AFC East title and then last weekend defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers in the wild-card round. They’re now set to host the Chiefs—a team previously responsible for reiterating how cursed the Bills franchise is—in the first true road playoff game in Patrick Mahomes’s career. As the thinking goes, this is all thanks to the Pit.

It's really quite simple. Nick Wright is a carnival barker. An old timey wrestling heel, like Rowdy Roddy Piper or Ric Flair. He is PURPOSEFULLY playing the role of "antagonistic villain", because it gets viewership, clicks, and online engagement, which equals more money for Nick Wright and his employers. He is playing a persona. A character. He's like Skip Bayless or Stephen A Smith. If you've ever heard Nick Wright speak seriously on a topic, then you know that the "Nick Wright" you see on your screen every week is nothing more than a bit, a put-on, a ruse. His character loves the Chiefs and hates on the Bills. It works again and again and again, because Bills fans take the bait again and again and again. I stopped getting mad at him a long time ago because I recognized what he is and what he's doing. You should, too. All I can do now is stand and applaud him for being so good at what he does, which is to antagonize and troll people into continuing to engage with him and the programs he's featured on.

You shut your filthy wh0re mouth, Beck.