Logic

So thankful to the Titans for beating Miami earlier in the season and beating the Jags today. Fact that it happened with former Dolphin Ryan Tannehill under center makes it even sweeter. Big questions loom for the Jaguars with Lawrence and Pederson. Wouldn't hate seeing the Bills sign Henry to a modest deal next season. Henry + Cook? Yes please. Go Titans! Go Bills! Go playoffs!

I felt good about this matchup all week long because I had faith the team would want to play well for what would possibly be the last hurrah for Vrabel, Henry, and Tannehill. Once I saw the first Titans drive, I felt even better. Henry running hard, Tannehill looking sharp, trick plays being dialed up, the stuff about Hopkins' contract incentives...this was a team playing to win! I'll admit to getting pretty nervous in the 4th quarter, but...very thankful to the Titans today. Come to think of it, the Titans helped us twice: Once by beating the Phins and making tonight's game meaningful, and again by clinching playoffs for us. The fact that today's win happened with former Dolphin Ryan Tannehill under center made it even sweeter.

I posted this on this forum on November 18th: "My prediction? Bills go into Miami week 18 with the seven seed on the line and beat the Dolphins, who already have the two seed locked up and don't have much to play for, then the Bills return to Miami the following week for Wild Card weekend." The only part I got wrong was the Phins having the 2-seed locked up and nothing to play for, so...things went a touch better than I predicted (thanks, Titans). Still...a Bills rebound and a Miami mini-collapse and a big time week 18 showdown against Miami was coming, no matter how down we felt at 6-6. You could just feel it in the air.

Yeah, the article alludes to the following: McDaniel and Shanahan's systems (which are basically the same) are predicated on the concept of identifying just a few things that your offense does really well -- say, post routes, crossers, and outside zone runs -- and building an offense where you get to those few concepts from a multitude of different formations and personnel packages. The only PROBLEM with that idea is that if and when defenses find out what those few concepts are and recognize the indications that you're about to run them, then you might be in trouble. That is, if the opposing defenses' ability to diagnose and defend your preferred concepts outpaces your ability to disguise them, then your offense may stagnate. This goes back to what Patrick Queen was saying about the Dolphins and 49ers having "tells" that they picked up on. Hopefully the Bills defense has recognized the same.

I really enjoyed this article from The Ringer discussing Tua's performance in big games over the years. It's well reasoned and has lots of good date and info. It illustrates that Tua's performance gets worse later in the season (even at home), that his worst losses by EPA have mostly come later in the season, and that he does not perform as well in the 4th quarter of games. There's more to it than just the charts pictured here, and I suggest everyone give this whole article a read. https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2024/1/5/24026177/dolphins-bills-tua-tagovailoa-future-nfl-playoffs-afc-east

Over/under on amount of times Collinsworth mentions Patrick Mahomes on Sunday night is set at 3.

Same, and I've heard this sentiment echoed by many Twitter users, and applying to non-football topics, too. Put simply, I think that the Twitter algorithm is now set up to promote argument and debate and inflammatory discussion. Ever since Elon bought it, I'm seeing less of the things I like and follow and subscribe to, and more of the things that are on the other end of the spectrum, so to speak. For example: All of the accounts I follow and articles I Like or Re-Tweet clearly point to me being a Bills fan. And yet, my feed is absolutely full of Dolphins fans, or sometimes of the fans of the team the Bills will be facing that week. Or I follow, Like, and Re-Tweet left-leaning political articles and Tweets, only to see my feed absolutely inundated with right wing commentary. Rather than showing me more of what my usage history on the website clearly indicates I actually enjoy or am interested in, Twitter now seems to go out of its way to show me the opposition viewpoint. I suppose it could be viewed as a good thing by some. Not reinforcing the "echo chamber effect" quite so much. On the other hand, the tenor of Twitter these days is so much more argumentative, vitriolic, and inflammatory than I can ever remember it, and I think it's being intentionally cultivated by the fella that runs that site these days. My best suggestion is to always view the "following" tab rather than the "suggested for you" tab, because the website is now apparently intentionally "suggesting" things it knows you will not enjoy or agree with.

I used Zach Ertz as a comparison for Kincaid prior to the season. That comment was met with some resistance, as if it was an insult. Mind you, Ertz has been in the league for a decade and counting, made 3 Pro Bowls, and had a stretch where he went over 800 receiving yards in four straight seasons. What I meant was that Ertz was a very good tight end in his prime, but was more of a possession, move-the-chains, 3rd down magnet type than a game-breaking Travis Kelce or Rob Gronkowski type. So far, based solely on his rookie season, the Ertz comparison doesn't seem too far off. Now, with that being said...I will be the first to admit that Kincaid has run-after-catch and deep threat ability that is not being used. When Josh threw him that long ball against New England, I did a double-take, because I'm not used to the Bills deploying him as a deep threat in that manner very often. Maybe the way the Bills offense utilizes him will change. Maybe he'll improve leaps and bounds from year one to year two, as many players do. So far, though, based on what we've seen, the Ertz comparison wasn't too far off. And for the record, it was never meant to be an insult, and an elite possession receiver that moves the chain is a great thing to have at tight end.

I am not watching this press conference, and yet I feel like I know everything coach is going to say. When it comes to press conference, McDermott is basically a ChatGPT bot. I have confidence that if you told ChatGPT to create the manuscript for a Sean McDermott press conference, and then you did a blind comparison to a real McDermott press conference, they would be completely indistinguishable. I'm not complaining. Belichick spent his entire HOF career not saying much in press conferences. It's just funny, that's all.

This thread is interesting to me because the passionate opinions on both sides are, in many (but not all) cases, not even really related to the matter at hand. It's like both sides are talking about a different topic entirely, with Rodgers and Kimmel as mere verbal placeholders for the real thing that they are discussing. Certain responses are even just echoing news network talking points. Fascinating viewing from the sidelines, I must say.

Yes. I mean...it's too early for this talk, and we have a massive matchup coming up in five days, and the playoffs are on the horizon, and it's insane to me that people are thinking draft, but... Yes. Double dip at receiver. Take one in the first round -- the Bills haven't DRAFTED a receiver in the 1st round in forever -- and then again in the mid to late rounds. Offensively, the Bills are talented at OL, TE, and RB1. They need to finally draft some premium WR talent and find a long term backup/running mate for Cook, and I'll feel good about that side of the ball for the next few years to come. One need only watch our WRs not gain appreciable separation in man coverage so many times this year before concluding that outside WR is (and really, has been for a while now) a major need. I'm well aware of the needs at DL, Safety, etc, etc....and I frankly don't care. Give me premium offense around Josh Allen. I trust McDermott (who is, at this point, certain to be our head coach next year) to make chicken salad out of chicken crap on defense, as he always does. GIVE ME OFFENSE.

To the people complaining about the Peacock thing, all I can say is... It's 2023. If you want to watch the game, it's incredibly easy to do so. For one thing, free trials exist, and it's only $5.99 for one month of it anyway. You're telling me that watching a Bills game or an NFL playoff game isn't worth the cost of one beer to you? But even if you have exhausted your free trial or DON'T want to pay to watch, it is still incredibly easy to watch any NFL game you want. The internet is undefeated.

I may be simple in my thinking on this matter: A man returned from cardiac arrest on the field to play pro football again the following season. He wins CBPOTY. I don't care that Joe Flacco is playing good football after a several year layoff. I don't care that Tua is "silencing the haters" after suffering a few concussions during a 13-start season for a playoff team. A man came back from the dead. He wins. End of story.

CeeDee already has 20 fantasy points for me in my championship matchup. To make it even sweeter, I'm going against a Cowboys fan. Go, Lamb, go!

Their offense vs our defense doesn't scare me. Their defense vs our offense....that will be a tougher challenge than many anticipate. The Bills only ever seem to have two types of games: blowouts where they win by three+ scores, or nail biters that make you want to vomit until the final whistle. I'd love one of the former, but I'm bracing for one of the latter.

Back in my day, we didn't have so many dang teams named after cats. Bengals, Jaguars, Panthers, Lions... Four is too many. The NFL has become a crazy cat lady.

Regarding Milano... One can't help but wonder if a player who relies on his speed and who plays at a position that relies on lateral movement, having hurried back from injury and playing on a freshly healed leg and after a 14 week layoff, would really be more effective than Tyrel Dodson at this point anyway.

Daquan Jones return all but assured. Poona Ford is shaking his head in disbelief...

If there was to be one thing that concerns me against the Pats, it's this: The Bills have been mostly living off the run game lately. Their WRs have not been getting good separation, and they generally haven't been lighting it up through the air. The Pats, meanwhile, have a very good run defense, as you pointed out. If the Bills are unable to run the ball, and the pass game starts out slow -- as it is wont to do at times this year -- then this could be a closer and more anxiety-inducing game then it needs to be. I still think the Bills ultimately find a way to take care of business at home, but I don't think it's going to be a 37-13 snoozefest or anything. I have the sneaking suspicion the game may be closer than Bills fans would prefer. Here's hoping I'm wrong.

A player who suffered an injury while having a good season for the Bills, then worked his ass off to come back early on in the following season, only to discover that -- to absolutely no one's surprise -- it's taking him a while to regain form given his age and the injury he suffered... Should we cut THAT guy some slack? Yes. If his lack of success this season was due to lack of effort? If he was loafing it, or milking his injury, or had a bad attitude, or wasn't generally working as hard as he can to make in impact? Then sure, let him have it. But the way Bills fans rip into this guy as it stands now? WHY?! for what? because he hasn't been effective this year? He's 34 and about a year removed from a torn ACL. What did people really expect? Sports fans can be cruel and fickle and can have an incredibly short memory. That seems to be the case here. Now, all of that speaks only to the vitriol aimed at his ON-FIELD performance. If people want to aim some anger and upset his way for the OFF-FIELD stuff? Then sure. Can't fault them one bit.

It's crazy who we end up starting on fantasy rosters by Championship weekend sometimes. It takes luck and skill and foresight to have a good fantasy season. But it feels like surviving and advancing in the fantasy playoffs is much more about luck and player health, given how late it is in the season. Then, sometimes NFL teams also do weird things like bench healthy players or make strange lineup choices if they either have seeding locked up or are eliminated from the playoffs and want to evaluate younger players. All in all, it can be very frustrating to fight and scrap your way to the finals only to have to start a Gardner Minshew and hope for the best. That said, I hope it goes well for you! Personally, I have never won my home league before. Been consistently in the playoffs and once to the finals, but have not yet won a 'ship. Hoping this is the year! If it was me, I'd start Gibbs and Kamara. But I consistently make the incorrect choice and then stew over it for weeks, so...take that with a grain of salt. That is indeed an unenviable decision making process. If it was me: Hurts, Kyren, ASB, Aubrey But that's just my two cents. Tough decisions all around.

Which part, the injury or the trade? Elam and Beane have each spoken directly about the injury. As for the alleged trade offers for Elam...I'll try to find a link, but of course Beane didn't/wouldn't publicly confirm any kind of trade talks, so it will have to remain in the "unverified rumor" category regardless.