Logic

Bad weather, going against a good defense and an underdog team with nothing to lose and a 3rd string QB... To me, this has all the makings of an anxiety inducing, closer than it needs to be, can't exhale until the final whistle type of game. Not that the Bills have really played any other type of game for most of this season, but... I hope I'm wrong. I hope it's a laugher in favor of the good guys. As it stands now, though, I'll say 20-17 Bills.

The moment Lamar threw 5 TDs and had a perfect passer rating against the Dolphins in the same week that Josh had a stinker against the Patriots, the MVP award was decided. Had Josh had the game he had last night bit WITHOUT the three turnovers, then maybe -- just maybe -- he'd have had a shot. As it is, Lamar is gonna win it. It's okay, though, because Josh is gonna be hoisting the Super Bowl MVP trophy instead.

I spent the entire season hearing from very loud, forceful Dolphins fans on Twitter and on Dolphins forums that Tua was better than Josh Allen. This morning? Nothing but "I've given up on Tua" and "He's not the guy". My, how the turntables...

Doot looks like he's havin a ball.

"I get a game ball, you get a game ball, EVERYBODY gets a game ball!" Deonte Harty. His return changed the game. Trent Sherfield. That catch was not easy. It represented one of only two touchdowns scored by the offense. Christian Benford. The interception, the big PD down the sideline against Hill. Man handled business all night. Dane Jackson. Looking Rasul in the eye and saying "If you're not 100%, I promise I got you" and then going out and delivering like he did? Chills. Josh Allen. I know, I know. You could give him one of these every week. But how do you NOT give him one for last night? Best player on the field. With all of that said, my primary game ball, my biggest kudos, goes to.... Coach McDermott. We all know what has happened this season regarding Coach McDermott. We all know the things that have been said, and very publicly. I myself advocated for moving on from McDermott in the offseason on this forum. It's only fair, then, that I point out the following: Since the bye week, he has been absolutely on fire as a defensive coordinator. He completely changed the look and feel of this defense coming out of the bye, and we saw the results last night. Zero points allowed in the second half. ZERO POINTS ALLOWED IN THE SECOND HALF. Missing Tre, Milano, Rasul, Dodsen, and with Von Miller a shell of himself. The man has orchestrated a top five scoring defense this season with scrap parts and band-aids, and make no mistake, it has played just as big a role as Josh Allen in winning the Bills the AFC East. Aside from the actual defensive playcalling, he has shown a new level of aggression and guts since the Dunne article came out. 4th quarter defensive decisions, 4th down decisions, all of it. That decision to go for the 1st down on their own -- what was it, 35 yard line? -- late in the 4th quarter. Wow. I was in shock. The way the game was called in the 4th quarter when the Bills had the ball thereafter, too. Staying aggressive. And speaking of the Dunne article, the team absolutely rallied around coach McDermott the moment it was released. This team has NOT given up on this coach. And what did we see after the game? Something I've never seen. Coach McDermott....DANCING a little bit in the locker room?! Coach Sean McDermott. Applause where its due. Hell of a game, hell of a second half of the season, and kudos on your adjustments. You get the primary game ball.

Four straight AFC East titles. Gutsy, resilient bounceback this season. To go from 6-6 to the 2-seed? INCREDIBLE. Now let's go win the whole damn thing.

Say want you want about this team and the way this season went... With all the injuries, all the bad losses, the firing of an OC midseason, the turmoil around the McDermott article, being 6-6 and having a 9% chance at playoffs... To be the 2-seed? Unbelievable. THIS BILLS TEAM IS RESILIENT AND BATTLE TESTED. I don't know how far they'll go in the playoffs. I do know that they've set themselves up nicely, starting off with a home game against the Watt-less Steelers. No matter what happens, though, I am incredibly proud of the way this team responded and finished out this season. Incredibly gutsy and impressive stuff from all three phases, and yes, from the coaching staff. WHAT A SUNDAY OF FOOTBALL! Now if you'll all excuse me, I have a whollle bunch of pettiness to dole out to Dolphins fans on Twitter. Goodnight and GO BILLS!

I understand people who have this way of thinking. You're saying you would have preferred the drama, the atmosphere, the "cinema" of a win-and-in, lose-and-out game. I get that, but that ain't me. For me, it's simple: To win the Super Bowl, you have to get into the playoffs. Any way, shape, or form that that happens for the Bills -- pretty, ugly, definitive, barely, backing in, clinching in week 12 -- I don't care. All I care is that they're in. That being the case, I'm thrilled that they have a spot clinched. No amount of of drama, atmosphere, or cinematic tension was worth the potential of not even making it to the second season. Not when we have Joshua Patrick Allen under center. And as I said earlier, I think the stakes are huge. The Bills' path to the Super Bowl looks A LOT easier as the 2-seed than the 6-seed. Getting the Steelers at home and then seeing the Phins have to travel to Arrowhead -- thus ensuring that one of them will be eliminated before we'd even see them -- would be amazing. But first thing's first: Hold the line. Win the East. Squish the Fish. Go Bills.

You're not wrong. But let's just say that at 6-5 and with roadies against Philly and KC on deck, not a lot of people were lining up in agreement with me on my prediction of a playoff berth.

My wife -- who hates being witness to my nervous/anxious energy during Bills games -- is so thrilled that the Titans win clinched playoffs for Buffalo and that, relatively speaking "the pressure is off" for tonight. Lord knows I'll enjoy the game a lot more, too. Don't get me wrong, the stakes are still huge. Hosting the Watt-less Steelers is way preferable to traveling to Miami for a second straight week. But still...it's nice knowing our guys are gonna be in the dance no matter what.

I wanna buy Mike Vrabel and Ryan Tannehill a Dr Pepper.

So thankful to the Titans for beating Miami earlier in the season and beating the Jags today. Fact that it happened with former Dolphin Ryan Tannehill under center makes it even sweeter. Big questions loom for the Jaguars with Lawrence and Pederson. Wouldn't hate seeing the Bills sign Henry to a modest deal next season. Henry + Cook? Yes please. Go Titans! Go Bills! Go playoffs!

I felt good about this matchup all week long because I had faith the team would want to play well for what would possibly be the last hurrah for Vrabel, Henry, and Tannehill. Once I saw the first Titans drive, I felt even better. Henry running hard, Tannehill looking sharp, trick plays being dialed up, the stuff about Hopkins' contract incentives...this was a team playing to win! I'll admit to getting pretty nervous in the 4th quarter, but...very thankful to the Titans today. Come to think of it, the Titans helped us twice: Once by beating the Phins and making tonight's game meaningful, and again by clinching playoffs for us. The fact that today's win happened with former Dolphin Ryan Tannehill under center made it even sweeter.

I posted this on this forum on November 18th: "My prediction? Bills go into Miami week 18 with the seven seed on the line and beat the Dolphins, who already have the two seed locked up and don't have much to play for, then the Bills return to Miami the following week for Wild Card weekend." The only part I got wrong was the Phins having the 2-seed locked up and nothing to play for, so...things went a touch better than I predicted (thanks, Titans). Still...a Bills rebound and a Miami mini-collapse and a big time week 18 showdown against Miami was coming, no matter how down we felt at 6-6. You could just feel it in the air.

Yeah, the article alludes to the following: McDaniel and Shanahan's systems (which are basically the same) are predicated on the concept of identifying just a few things that your offense does really well -- say, post routes, crossers, and outside zone runs -- and building an offense where you get to those few concepts from a multitude of different formations and personnel packages. The only PROBLEM with that idea is that if and when defenses find out what those few concepts are and recognize the indications that you're about to run them, then you might be in trouble. That is, if the opposing defenses' ability to diagnose and defend your preferred concepts outpaces your ability to disguise them, then your offense may stagnate. This goes back to what Patrick Queen was saying about the Dolphins and 49ers having "tells" that they picked up on. Hopefully the Bills defense has recognized the same.

I really enjoyed this article from The Ringer discussing Tua's performance in big games over the years. It's well reasoned and has lots of good date and info. It illustrates that Tua's performance gets worse later in the season (even at home), that his worst losses by EPA have mostly come later in the season, and that he does not perform as well in the 4th quarter of games. There's more to it than just the charts pictured here, and I suggest everyone give this whole article a read. https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2024/1/5/24026177/dolphins-bills-tua-tagovailoa-future-nfl-playoffs-afc-east

Over/under on amount of times Collinsworth mentions Patrick Mahomes on Sunday night is set at 3.

Same, and I've heard this sentiment echoed by many Twitter users, and applying to non-football topics, too. Put simply, I think that the Twitter algorithm is now set up to promote argument and debate and inflammatory discussion. Ever since Elon bought it, I'm seeing less of the things I like and follow and subscribe to, and more of the things that are on the other end of the spectrum, so to speak. For example: All of the accounts I follow and articles I Like or Re-Tweet clearly point to me being a Bills fan. And yet, my feed is absolutely full of Dolphins fans, or sometimes of the fans of the team the Bills will be facing that week. Or I follow, Like, and Re-Tweet left-leaning political articles and Tweets, only to see my feed absolutely inundated with right wing commentary. Rather than showing me more of what my usage history on the website clearly indicates I actually enjoy or am interested in, Twitter now seems to go out of its way to show me the opposition viewpoint. I suppose it could be viewed as a good thing by some. Not reinforcing the "echo chamber effect" quite so much. On the other hand, the tenor of Twitter these days is so much more argumentative, vitriolic, and inflammatory than I can ever remember it, and I think it's being intentionally cultivated by the fella that runs that site these days. My best suggestion is to always view the "following" tab rather than the "suggested for you" tab, because the website is now apparently intentionally "suggesting" things it knows you will not enjoy or agree with.

I used Zach Ertz as a comparison for Kincaid prior to the season. That comment was met with some resistance, as if it was an insult. Mind you, Ertz has been in the league for a decade and counting, made 3 Pro Bowls, and had a stretch where he went over 800 receiving yards in four straight seasons. What I meant was that Ertz was a very good tight end in his prime, but was more of a possession, move-the-chains, 3rd down magnet type than a game-breaking Travis Kelce or Rob Gronkowski type. So far, based solely on his rookie season, the Ertz comparison doesn't seem too far off. Now, with that being said...I will be the first to admit that Kincaid has run-after-catch and deep threat ability that is not being used. When Josh threw him that long ball against New England, I did a double-take, because I'm not used to the Bills deploying him as a deep threat in that manner very often. Maybe the way the Bills offense utilizes him will change. Maybe he'll improve leaps and bounds from year one to year two, as many players do. So far, though, based on what we've seen, the Ertz comparison wasn't too far off. And for the record, it was never meant to be an insult, and an elite possession receiver that moves the chain is a great thing to have at tight end.

I am not watching this press conference, and yet I feel like I know everything coach is going to say. When it comes to press conference, McDermott is basically a ChatGPT bot. I have confidence that if you told ChatGPT to create the manuscript for a Sean McDermott press conference, and then you did a blind comparison to a real McDermott press conference, they would be completely indistinguishable. I'm not complaining. Belichick spent his entire HOF career not saying much in press conferences. It's just funny, that's all.

This thread is interesting to me because the passionate opinions on both sides are, in many (but not all) cases, not even really related to the matter at hand. It's like both sides are talking about a different topic entirely, with Rodgers and Kimmel as mere verbal placeholders for the real thing that they are discussing. Certain responses are even just echoing news network talking points. Fascinating viewing from the sidelines, I must say.

Yes. I mean...it's too early for this talk, and we have a massive matchup coming up in five days, and the playoffs are on the horizon, and it's insane to me that people are thinking draft, but... Yes. Double dip at receiver. Take one in the first round -- the Bills haven't DRAFTED a receiver in the 1st round in forever -- and then again in the mid to late rounds. Offensively, the Bills are talented at OL, TE, and RB1. They need to finally draft some premium WR talent and find a long term backup/running mate for Cook, and I'll feel good about that side of the ball for the next few years to come. One need only watch our WRs not gain appreciable separation in man coverage so many times this year before concluding that outside WR is (and really, has been for a while now) a major need. I'm well aware of the needs at DL, Safety, etc, etc....and I frankly don't care. Give me premium offense around Josh Allen. I trust McDermott (who is, at this point, certain to be our head coach next year) to make chicken salad out of chicken crap on defense, as he always does. GIVE ME OFFENSE.