Logic

Had a feeling this was coming. I think the "one last ride for Vrabel, Henry, and Tannehill" thing is what motivated the Titans to play so hard on Sunday and beat the Jags. I would say it doesn't matter because the Bills won anyway, but Josh admitted that was super glad to know the Bills already had a spot locked up when the Dolphins game kicked off, so there's really no knowing how he and the Bills would've played if they didn't have that peace of mind.

Based on the weather report and the opponent... Offensively: Run the ball, use Josh's legs as a weapon, hold on to the rock, and end drives in points (Steelers have a great scoring and red zone defense, so even FGs are okay). Defensively: Gap integrity and tackling. I'd love to say to go pass heavy early, get a big lead, and force Mason Rudolph to catch up. But based on recent weeks, I don't have enough faith in the Bills' passing game or ball security to suggest that that's a particularly wise strategy. As such, run and stop the run, unleash Josh's legs, and hold on to the football, and I think the Bills win it.

Thanks for this post. You're not wrong that the INTs are a problem that Josh needs to get under control going forward. That said, this season, the EPA lost by Josh Allen's INTs was a lot less than many other QBs, meaning he's throwing less "bad" INTs, or that the interceptions he throws are, relatively speaking, "less harmful". Furthermore, the overall aggressiveness and explosiveness of Josh Allen, I think, will always come with higher interception numbers than most. You take the bad with the good because, on the whole, it equals a more dangerous and productive QB and a higher scoring team, even WITH the turnovers. And ultimately, not all turnovers are created equally. Again, you're not wrong. I just want to put what you're saying into context. A few numbers to illustrate this point. "Josh Allen has lost less value to negative plays than any QB in the NFL" in 2023.

Thanks for the writeup. Enjoyed it, as always. You (and Collinsworth) are absolutely right. That WAS a playoff game. I thought three things stood out last night: Brandon Beane's free agent acquisitions (Harty and Sherfield -- quiet all year -- accounted for two of the three Bills TDs, Taylor Rapp had the game sealing interception), McDermott's masterful defensive coaching, and Josh Allen simply putting the team on his back and willing them to victory once again. He accounted for 91% of the Bills' offensive production on the night. 91%. And the 4th quarter? Well...he simply wanted it more than anyone else on the field, and that was the difference in the game. The defense -- and missing key players, mind you -- stifled the Phins in the second half, as you said, and held them to a full game TOTAL of 14 points. This was one of the top scoring offenses in NFL HISTORY, mind you, and they were playing at home. 14 points. The special teams, maligned much of the season, produced a touchdown. The offense, despite a bevy of mistakes, scored the go-ahead touchdown in the 4th quarter and bled enough time off the clock at the end -- including two gutsy 4th down decisions -- that the Dolphins simply didn't have enough time to mount a comeback. All three phases. Complimentary football. Just what Sean McDermott's been preaching all season. I said repeatedly earlier this season that I thought his time as Bills coach had come to an end and the team should move on from him. It's only fair that I point out, then, that in the biggest game of the season, his defense shone brightly, his team played the complimentary football he always preaches and displayed the mental toughness he always touts, and at the end of the night...the once totally-left-for-dead Buffalo Bills were the AFC's 2-seed. Masterful job by coach McDermott. Gosh, football is fun sometimes.

Yeah. It's hard to argue that the team is better with Sherfield as WR2 than Gabe Davis. Davis, for all his maddening inconsistency and disappearing acts, has at least shown the POTENTIAL to break games open, to catch long touchdown passes, to make highlight reel catches in big moments. Sherfield and Harty, for the most part, have not even shown that potential. In the Bills' long term plans? Nope. Shouldn't be. Helpful and probably necessary to have a good shot at a Lombardi this season? Likely so.

The thing with Belichick, in my opinion, is that the game has passed him by. It happens to all the greats. Don Shula didn't coach forever, either. I just don't think that a 71 year old man whose demeanor can best be described as "hard assed curmudgeon" and who has had many players come out in recent years saying that they were absolutely miserable playing for the Pats -- I don't think that guy can effectively enough connect with NFL players in 2023 to have the same type of success he used to have in New England. Players were willing to put up with that kind of leadership when it came with consistent Super Bowl contention and Tom Brady at QB. They shut up and did what was told of them because this was the great Bill Belichick, and he carried enough cache that it was worth the headache of playing for such a stern disciplinarian. A few years of non-contention and losing seasons on, though? Establishing a culture from the ground up with a new organization? Color me skeptical. If he gets inserted into the PERFECT situation -- good ownership and front office, quality quarterback, personnel ready to compete within the first year or two -- then maybe he makes some playoff pushes. But what are the odds he finds a situation like that? And even if he does, how long is he sticking around? I'm sorry, but if it's me, I'm not hiring Bill Belichick as my next head coach. Yes, he's an all-time great, and maybe the greatest to ever do it. No, that doesn't mean he's the right man to lead a franchise into the future in the year 2024.

I can't really say I noticed any drop-off once Gabe left the game. I don't expect him to be back with Buffalo after this season. That said, the more healthy receivers, the better, so hopefully he heals up in time for Pittsburgh.

My point is that the Steelers are going to have a "nothing to lose" mentality because they're a 7-seed with a 3rd string QB that barely made the playoffs, coming in as 7.5 point underdogs. You can absolutely bet that Mike Tomlin is going to be in their ears saying "no one believes in us or expects anything from us. We're supposed to lose this week. Show 'em who we are". Put simply, the pressure is on Buffalo, the 2-seed playing at home that has had demoralizing playoff exits two years in a row. The pressure is not on the 7-seed starting Mason Rudolph at QB, who no one thought would be there anyway.

I get the point you're making, but I think you have that part backwards.

I do think Douglas will be here for the rest of his career. He just screams "Process" and "long term team leader" for the Buffalo Bills. That said, I actually happen to think Benford is becoming a bona fide NFL CB1. That's not just my opinion, either. He seems to be near the top of many "least separation allowed" charts, PFF rankings, and other analytical measures of success. I happen to think that between Douglas and Benford, the Bills have TWO CB1s. Dane Jackson is about as good as it gets for a depth corner, as well. If only Kaiir Elam can rebound and be a productive player himself...

It ultimately doesn't matter because the Bills won, but I just want to say for the record... The refs were absolutely awful last night. They seemed intent on screwing the Bills at every turn. The Knox PI no-call that likely cost us 7. The targeting/helmet-to-helmet against Johnson that may also have cost us 7. The holding no-call on the Achange TD run. Some of the 4th quarter ball spots. Just an all-around atrocious effort by the officials -- again -- in a season chock full of them.

At this point, I just ASSUME that the Bills are going to draft or sign a late round or UDFA corner every single year that's going to be a baller. There are always prospects who have good size, zone eyes, and the willingness to tackle, but who fall on draft day due to below average measurables. Beane's staff is incredible at finding them, and McDermott's staff is incredible at coaching them up. Alex Austin looks to be another one, but unfortunately the Patriots stole him from us. No matter. We'll just find another this year.

Three main tangible factors: Brandon Beane's mid-season defensive acquisitions. I'm not sure the Bills would've won some of the games they did without Rasul Douglas and, to a lesser but still appreciable extent, Linval Joseph. Sean McDermott's defensive about-face after the bye. Coach said that he and his staff took a long, hard look at the defense during the bye week and did a lot of tinkering, and boy, did it show. Ever since the bye week, the Bills defense has been lights out. They held the Cowboys, Dolphins, and Chiefs each under 20 points. The last few games, they're giving up something like 16.5 points per game. An incredible turnaround, especially given the injuries and mid-season replacements. Joe Brady. No, it has not been perfect. No, I'm not sold that he's the long term answer at OC. Still, his insertion as playcaller came at just the right moment to save the season, IMO. He focused on the run game when he needed to, oversaw an offense that turned the ball over less, and injected some spark and life and fun into this offense. And one main intangible factor: Resilience. Call it perseverance, guts, fortitude, toughness...call it whatever you want. Even with all of the above factors...for this team to come together the way they did, shut out the haters and national perspective on them, overcome the turmoil around the McDermott article, and take care of business the way they did is extremely impressive. "Mental toughness" gets used so much that it can sometimes be eyeroll-inducing. But in this case, it's absolutely an accurate term. Kudos to these players and coaches. To win the AFC East and secure the 2-seed after everything they went through this year is massively impressive, no ifs, ands, or buts about it.

Bad weather, going against a good defense and an underdog team with nothing to lose and a 3rd string QB... To me, this has all the makings of an anxiety inducing, closer than it needs to be, can't exhale until the final whistle type of game. Not that the Bills have really played any other type of game for most of this season, but... I hope I'm wrong. I hope it's a laugher in favor of the good guys. As it stands now, though, I'll say 20-17 Bills.

The moment Lamar threw 5 TDs and had a perfect passer rating against the Dolphins in the same week that Josh had a stinker against the Patriots, the MVP award was decided. Had Josh had the game he had last night bit WITHOUT the three turnovers, then maybe -- just maybe -- he'd have had a shot. As it is, Lamar is gonna win it. It's okay, though, because Josh is gonna be hoisting the Super Bowl MVP trophy instead.

I spent the entire season hearing from very loud, forceful Dolphins fans on Twitter and on Dolphins forums that Tua was better than Josh Allen. This morning? Nothing but "I've given up on Tua" and "He's not the guy". My, how the turntables...

Doot looks like he's havin a ball.

"I get a game ball, you get a game ball, EVERYBODY gets a game ball!" Deonte Harty. His return changed the game. Trent Sherfield. That catch was not easy. It represented one of only two touchdowns scored by the offense. Christian Benford. The interception, the big PD down the sideline against Hill. Man handled business all night. Dane Jackson. Looking Rasul in the eye and saying "If you're not 100%, I promise I got you" and then going out and delivering like he did? Chills. Josh Allen. I know, I know. You could give him one of these every week. But how do you NOT give him one for last night? Best player on the field. With all of that said, my primary game ball, my biggest kudos, goes to.... Coach McDermott. We all know what has happened this season regarding Coach McDermott. We all know the things that have been said, and very publicly. I myself advocated for moving on from McDermott in the offseason on this forum. It's only fair, then, that I point out the following: Since the bye week, he has been absolutely on fire as a defensive coordinator. He completely changed the look and feel of this defense coming out of the bye, and we saw the results last night. Zero points allowed in the second half. ZERO POINTS ALLOWED IN THE SECOND HALF. Missing Tre, Milano, Rasul, Dodsen, and with Von Miller a shell of himself. The man has orchestrated a top five scoring defense this season with scrap parts and band-aids, and make no mistake, it has played just as big a role as Josh Allen in winning the Bills the AFC East. Aside from the actual defensive playcalling, he has shown a new level of aggression and guts since the Dunne article came out. 4th quarter defensive decisions, 4th down decisions, all of it. That decision to go for the 1st down on their own -- what was it, 35 yard line? -- late in the 4th quarter. Wow. I was in shock. The way the game was called in the 4th quarter when the Bills had the ball thereafter, too. Staying aggressive. And speaking of the Dunne article, the team absolutely rallied around coach McDermott the moment it was released. This team has NOT given up on this coach. And what did we see after the game? Something I've never seen. Coach McDermott....DANCING a little bit in the locker room?! Coach Sean McDermott. Applause where its due. Hell of a game, hell of a second half of the season, and kudos on your adjustments. You get the primary game ball.

Four straight AFC East titles. Gutsy, resilient bounceback this season. To go from 6-6 to the 2-seed? INCREDIBLE. Now let's go win the whole damn thing.

Say want you want about this team and the way this season went... With all the injuries, all the bad losses, the firing of an OC midseason, the turmoil around the McDermott article, being 6-6 and having a 9% chance at playoffs... To be the 2-seed? Unbelievable. THIS BILLS TEAM IS RESILIENT AND BATTLE TESTED. I don't know how far they'll go in the playoffs. I do know that they've set themselves up nicely, starting off with a home game against the Watt-less Steelers. No matter what happens, though, I am incredibly proud of the way this team responded and finished out this season. Incredibly gutsy and impressive stuff from all three phases, and yes, from the coaching staff. WHAT A SUNDAY OF FOOTBALL! Now if you'll all excuse me, I have a whollle bunch of pettiness to dole out to Dolphins fans on Twitter. Goodnight and GO BILLS!

I understand people who have this way of thinking. You're saying you would have preferred the drama, the atmosphere, the "cinema" of a win-and-in, lose-and-out game. I get that, but that ain't me. For me, it's simple: To win the Super Bowl, you have to get into the playoffs. Any way, shape, or form that that happens for the Bills -- pretty, ugly, definitive, barely, backing in, clinching in week 12 -- I don't care. All I care is that they're in. That being the case, I'm thrilled that they have a spot clinched. No amount of of drama, atmosphere, or cinematic tension was worth the potential of not even making it to the second season. Not when we have Joshua Patrick Allen under center. And as I said earlier, I think the stakes are huge. The Bills' path to the Super Bowl looks A LOT easier as the 2-seed than the 6-seed. Getting the Steelers at home and then seeing the Phins have to travel to Arrowhead -- thus ensuring that one of them will be eliminated before we'd even see them -- would be amazing. But first thing's first: Hold the line. Win the East. Squish the Fish. Go Bills.

You're not wrong. But let's just say that at 6-5 and with roadies against Philly and KC on deck, not a lot of people were lining up in agreement with me on my prediction of a playoff berth.

My wife -- who hates being witness to my nervous/anxious energy during Bills games -- is so thrilled that the Titans win clinched playoffs for Buffalo and that, relatively speaking "the pressure is off" for tonight. Lord knows I'll enjoy the game a lot more, too. Don't get me wrong, the stakes are still huge. Hosting the Watt-less Steelers is way preferable to traveling to Miami for a second straight week. But still...it's nice knowing our guys are gonna be in the dance no matter what.

I wanna buy Mike Vrabel and Ryan Tannehill a Dr Pepper.