Logic

I think that fully fixing the league would just be too difficult. Far too many moving pieces. It's not realistic. Also, for the league to be fully fixed, all the players would have to be in on it, and what do you think the odds are that that many human beings could keep a secret like that? It's just totally, beyond-the-pail, through the looking glass, ridiculous. There's no way. Now...Do I think that it's possible that the NFL emphasizes or de-emphasizes certain officiating points before key games, particularly in the playoffs, in the name of aiding/encouraging certain more "desirable" teams to win and advance? Yes, I think that's possible. The NFL is first and foremost a business, and if having the Chiefs (and the Taylor Swift show) in the Super Bowl equals X amount more dollars in revenue than having the Ravens would, then I absolutely think it's feasible that the NFL would lean on officials to call a game a certain way to help ensure that outcome. And it could be done in a pretty subtle way, too. Not like "make calls that hurt the Ravens!", but more like "be extremely lenient on defensive holding and pass interference calls" (since the Chiefs have a grabby, physical secondary and the Ravens have a speedy/finesse WR group). Fixed? No. Influenced/swayed/finger on the scale at key moments? Very possible, in my mind.

I can't really quantify which one hurt more. I CAN say that seeing the Ravens be the same old playoff Ravens -- and knowing how well we've matched up with them in the McDermott/Allen era -- made the Bills loss hurt a lot more. I, too, am confident that had the Bills gotten past the Chiefs, they would have beaten the Ravens. For what it's worth, I'd also feel really good about the Bills' chances of beating San Fran. I actually feel MORE confident that this year's Bills would've beaten the Ravens in the AFCCG than I feel that the 2021 Bills would've beaten the Bengals in the AFCCG. Simply because we've seen how hard a time Allen and the Bills have against Lou Anarumo's defense. Whatever. I can only live in the "dwelling agonizingly on past defeats" realm for so long. Not good for mental health. I'm on to the Senior Bowl.

In the regular season over the past four years, McDermott's defense has given up an average of 19.83 points per game. In the four playoff losses over the past four years, McDermott's defense has given up an average of 33.5 points per game. For frame of reference, the worst scoring defense in the league this year belonged to Washington, who gave up 30.5 points per game. So McDermott's defense is three points WORSE than the worst defense in the league this year in the Bills' recent playoff losses. I could be mistaken, but I don't think the Bills defense was incredibly unhealthy in all four of those playoff losses. Obviously this year's missing players are well documented, last year we didn't have Von, the year before that we didn't have Tre. Either way, injuries or not, McDermott's defense is giving up two full touchdowns more per playoff loss than it does in the regular season, and that's a huge and unacceptable swing.

A local reporter who soured on the organization they used to cover, harnessing their malice to write a targeted hit piece that uses info from 20+ sources to attack the character of the head coach and paint a picture of paranoia and dysfunction, throwing the fan base into hysteria and causing endless arguments over whether said paranoid coach is the right man to lead the organization moving forward or whether the author is just a hack with a vendetta. Stop me if you've heard this one before.

Sure. No problem. And likewise, if the Bills are great defensively in the playoffs next year and Babich turns out to have been a great hire, I trust you'll be here with bells on to eat crow?

Like I said, I definitely agree that the defensive injuries played a huge part and were possibly/probably the biggest factor in the loss. With that said, nothing the Bills defense has done over the past several seasons of playoff games makes me confident that the defense would've been gangbusters even if Bernard (and, heck, Matt Milano) were in the lineup. Yes, things would PROBABLY have been better, but based on previous matchups against the Chiefs in the playoffs (or the Bengals, or whomever), why should I be particularly confident that things DEFINITELY would have been better, ya know? My main gripe with McDermott at this point is that his defense is perennially top 5 in the regular season, but drops to below average in the playoffs against the elite opponents. If you're gonna roll with a defensive head coach, that's fine, but his defenses better damn well show up in the biggest games, and they all too often don't under McDermott. Even in past seasons when our defense WAS relatively healthy, they have gotten shredded by the Mahomes and Burrows of the world come playoff time. That has to stop.

Let's see... Golf at Pebble Beach, or play televised dodgeball with Kevin Zeitler and Evan Engram? Hmmmm....Tough choice. (btw that's no shade on Zeitler and Engram specifically. I'm sure they're lovely chaps)

While I agree with the notion that the defensive injuries were likely the most prominent and identifiable reason for the loss to the Chiefs, it doesn't change the fact that it was a loss. Even with those injuries, the Bills had the ball at the end with a chance to score a go-ahead touchdown with very little time left on the clock. They didn't get the job done. Now, obviously you can say "well, it was Josh that opted to throw to Shakir in the end zone rather than bleed more clock, and it was Dawkins that allowed Chris Jones to affect Allen's pass, and surely McDermott isn't to blame for the plays that the PLAYERS themselves didn't make to win", and you'd be kind of right. But one could then point out that it should have been a critical coaching point by McDermott to instill in Josh that he needed to bleed more clock, that going for a touchdown right out of the two minute warning was maybe NOT the best strategic choice, and that in that instance, the matter of WHEN they scored was maybe the most important element of that moment in the game. It's like the 13 seconds game. One could point to the execution by the defensive players or the kicker at the end and say "that's on the players", but one could just as easily say "it's the job of the head coach to know the key factors of importance in that moment and to impart those factors to the players in a way that they understand". What I'm trying to say is this: You can pretty much always blame players on the field, because they're the ones who are or aren't making the plays. But in the big moments of big games, a great head coach will make sure that he has explained the most necessary and pertinent strategic components clearly to the players. McDermott doesn't seem to have done that in the 13 seconds game, and it seems possible that he didn't explain them in the most recent Chiefs loss, either. All of this takes us back to Dunne's primary thesis: That Sean McDermott -- while a good head coach overall -- will always get too tense in big moments, freeze up, and demonstrate an inability to seize those moments, win those games, and get his team over the hump. Put more simply: McDermott has yet to disprove the primary thesis of Dunne's piece.

As someone who found a lot of what was in the Dunne piece to be illuminating and probably truthful... Two things that have happened since have been kind of damning to that report: The first was the Wink Martindale/Brian Daboll fallout. Whereas it looked like the rather public breakup of McDermott and Daboll was more on McDermott, seeing Daboll be unable to make it work with a second consecutive defensive mind makes one wonder. The second was the fact that, as the OP mentioned, two coveted young coordinators chose to stick around in Buffalo rather than go elsewhere, even though both garnered significant interest. Babich, in particular, was surprising, choosing to stick around under a defensive-minded head coach who may still continue to call plays rather than potentially spread his wings under an offensive minded guy. Lastly, the way the team rallied around McDermott after the piece came out also sort of poked a bit of a hole in the "no one likes playing for this control freak" narrative. The more that time has gone on and the more that's happened, the less accurate Dunne's piece has looked. With all of that said, the Bills still lost in heartbreaking fashion in the Divisional round to the Kansas City Chiefs, and the major thesis of Dunne's piece was that McDermott tenses up in big moments and that the Bills need to move on from him to ever reach the Super Bowl, so.....he hasn't entirely been proven wrong thus far.

Does my heart so much good to see Senior Bowl drills happening on the timeline. It's the first major salve on the "didn't win a Lombardi and now the season's over" wound for the year. It's the official turning of the page from "season in review" to "offseason/FA/draft time", which has always been a time of year that I've enjoyed immensely. Spilt milk cried over. OC hired. DC hired. Now let's go build this roster.

If I was the hottest HC candidate in the league, I'd spend another year burnishing my resume with that Detroit offense rather than go to a team with no QB, too. Guys like Johnson have the luxury of waiting for the perfect opportunity. No need to jump at the first jobs that come available, especially if one of them involves being employed by the Washington Commanders.

The Bills have consistently ranked in the top 10 and/or top 5 in DVOA and points scored since McDermott arrived. Babich has been a key cog in the coaching wheel the whole time. First he did great work with the safeties, as Hyde and Poyer both became All-Pro caliber players. Then he moved to linebacker, where Milano has developed into an All-Pro and Bernard just had an outstanding sophomore season. I understand ideological frustration with continuity, given that the Bills have yet to win a Super Bowl under McDermott. To complain about this specific move, though, seems like misplaced frustration. Babich is a good coach, as evidenced by his multiple interviews elsewhere, and this is a good hire.

The 1st round is gonna go one of two ways for the Bills: Either: They'll draft a WR and Bills fans everywhere will rejoice and start booking hotel rooms for Super Bowl weekend. - or - The value at WR won't be right (perhaps because a run on the position has already happened), and they'll draft a safety or defensive lineman, and Bills fans will scream obscenities on social media for five months and possibly burn the city down. I see no in-between.

I agree with the general premise of this post. I will go further and say that, in my opinion, Sean McDermott does a great job balancing analytics and "feel" and making good decisions in high pressure moments. He's routinely in the top three of the "goes for it on 4th when he should" chart, but doesn't allow himself to be a prisoner to it. There have been games when we, as fans, would prefer a little more aggression, but he trusts the way his defense is playing, so he's a touch more conservative, and it has paid off more often than not. Then, more recently -- especially in the second half of this season and in the playoffs -- he has made aggressive decisions when the analytics are 50-50, because he senses that his offense is hot or could use the jolt of confidence that such a decision sometimes gives a team. I do not think McDermott is a perfect coach. Far from it. But credit where credit is due, I think he does a great job balancing analytics and game feel and, more often than not, making intelligent and "correct" decisions.

The "tiers" guys have it right, in my opinion: On his own planet: Pat Mahomes Not far off from planet Mahomes, but needs some rings and trophies to get there: Josh Allen - - - - - - - Bona fide franchise QBs: Joe Burrow Lamar Jackson Justin Herbert Aaron Rodgers (until further notice) Matthew Stafford Very good QBs, but you could upgrade: Dak Prescott Kirk Cousins Jared Goff That's 10. Jury is still out on CJ Stroud, Jordan Love, Trevor Lawrence, and even Anthony Richardson. A big 2024 could catapult any of them into the top 10, especially (and most easily) CJ Stroud. We've seen lots of QBs have great rookie seasons and then be unable to replicate in their sophomore years, though, so I can't include nay of them in the top 10 until they have a good follow-up year. I do not currently count Tua or Hurts among my top 10 based on their play down the stretch of the 2023 season and in the playoffs.

I get that the funny and popular thing to do amongst many Bills fans is to poke fun at Leslie Frazier or act as if he isn't/wasn't a good DC. While he certainly wasn't perfect and his basic defenses and lack of disguise sometimes frustrated me, let's look at the facts: Buffalo Bills ranking in points per game allowed by year under Leslie Frazier: 2019: 2nd 2020: 14th 2021: 1st 2022: 4th Now, the Bills defense did finish 4th in points per game allowed this year, indicating that Frazier shouldn't garner all the praise for the defensive success with this roster. On the flip side, the blame that gets thrown Frazier's way for the defense turning to paper tigers once the playoffs hit, well...guess what? That happened again this year (and yes, obviously the injuries played a part). Bottom line: Leslie Frazier is one of the best and most respected teachers, leaders, and defensive minds in the NFL for a reason. I won't lose any sleep if he becomes the Dolphins' defensive coordinator, but I certainly won't be chuckling or praying for it to happen, either.

6 GWS has rings and trophies. 9 has none. How do you account for this? I am presuming you will say that it's more due to the acumen of their respective shark handlers?

I just think that having the second highest win total in the league since 2020 suggests that the Bills have a pretty darn good roster. I don't think achieving such consistent success and racking up that many wins with a subpar roster is particularly realistic. I agree that Brandon Beane needs to hit more home runs and less singles and doubles, and I think he'd tell you the same thing. For what it's worth, I think Terrel Bernard and Dalton Kincaid both showed the potential this year to be game changing players going forward. Ed Oliver had a "game changing" type of regular season this year. This year, the Bills were the AFC's 2-seed and two of their best defenders -- Milano and Bernard -- were injured for the Divisional round game against a team uniquely suited to take advantage of those absences. Had it not been for the Bills playing 4th and 5th string linebackers, who knows? I happen to believe they'd have beaten the Ravens yesterday, and I'd like their chances against the 49ers, too. Alas, injuries happen, the Chiefs are elite and continue to dog the Bills in the playoffs, and here we are. Beane is good. McDermott is good. Both need to be better. I'm not convinced that GM X off the street would be any better, though it's possible he could be. In any case, it's all nothing more than a thought exercise, because Beane and McD are here to stay for at least 2024, and likely beyond that.

I think it's simple: The Bills have the second best quarterback on planet earth. The BEST quarterback on planet earth, unfortunately, also plays in the AFC. This is why the Bills have not yet won a Super Bowl.

The only thing I'll say, and this is in response to your previous message to me as well, is: The Bills had an explosive downfield passing offense in 2020 and for chunks of 2021. It was only when opposing defenses started playing a lot of two-high coverage specifically designed to take away that type of offense (which is the dominant defensive trend in the NFL the past few seasons) that the Bills started having to learn to live underneath. It's not just the Bills, either. The Chiefs have been forced by the way opposing defenses are playing to live off the run game and short passing game, too. It's really the only way to continue to move the ball on such a defense. It's all about forcing the offense to slowly and methodically matriculate the ball down the field (Hank Stram shoutout), betting that they'll make a mistake along the way. The Bills have HAD to switch to this type of offense to stay alive. I don't think it was a conscious choice made out of conservatism. Furthermore, McDermott JUST said a few days ago in his end of season presser that the Bills need to generate more explosive plays, and that it would be a big factor in shaping their offseason from a player acquisition and scheming standpoint. In short, they WERE an explosive downfield passing offense, they HAD to switch to a shorter YAC offense largely due to how opposing defenses defend them the past couple years, it's affecting other teams, too, and lastly, the Bills are aware of it and the head coach specifically gave voice to addressing the lack of explosivity.

Honestly it was a lesson to me going forward that I should take analytics with a big grain of salt. The analytics all said our offense was top three to top five under Dorsey, but reality showed that it was broken and stale. The analytics all said our offense got worse under Brady, but reality showed that it started moving and working again, and the Bills started scoring more points and winning football games. Big grain of salt.

The move from Dorsey to Brady has to be one of the weirdest things I've ever witnessed in football. Specifically: All of the analytics favored Dorsey, but if you watched his offense in real time, you saw a lack of logical sequencing, layering, and a general lack of feel for the game. You saw an offense that got stuck in neutral too often, did illogical things, became stale for long stretches, and ultimately failed to score enough points on a consistent basis. Meanwhile, all of the analytics took a dip once Brady came aboard. Pretty much any notable measure of success from an analytics standpoint was WORSE under Brady than Dorsey. And yet, if you watched the offense under Brady as compared to Dorsey, you suddenly saw a plan, a logic, the aforementioned sequencing and layering, better organization, streamlining of the playbook, greater offensive consistency, and ultimately, more points being scored on a more consistent basis. Ken Dorsey was an analytics darling as a playcaller, but in the "real world" of football, the offense often seemed broken and basic. Joe Brady was NOT so much of an analytics darling, and analytics guys will insist that the Bills offense got "worse" under him, but in the "real world" of football, the offense suddenly seemed to work better, more often, and more consistently. Absolutely bizarre. I can't explain it, but I CAN tell you what my eyes saw very clearly: the offense seemed to clearly work better and be more productive and consistent under Joe Brady.

I just don't think the evidence on the field over the last several weeks of the regular season and the two games in the postseason match the notion that McDermott is "conservative" or wants the Bills to play a safe, no-risk offense. Once upon a time, I may have agreed with that statement. But McDermott's coaching has evolved tremendously, and his aggressiveness along with it. Everything that goes with the idea of being an aggressive (rather than conservative) coach, McDermott has been doing from midseason on. He's constantly near the top of the "goes for it on 4th down when he should" charts. He's been going for it on 4th down on his own side of the field, even early in games, quite often. He has overseen an offense that for four straight years now is near the top of the league in passing frequency. He himself said in his season ending press conference that he believes you pass to win in this league. Yes, at times he's mentioned wanting to run the ball more effectively and to stop turning the ball over. I don't think either of those qualify as "conservative" thinking, though. I think 32 out of 32 NFL head coaches want their team to run the ball effectively and to take care of the football. And as I said, there's a time I would have agreed with the "McDermott is a conservative coach" idea, but that time has passed. All the evidence on the field in recent weeks simply does not back it up any longer. He's become pretty damned aggressive in his approach. And mind you, I'm no McDermott apologist. After the Broncos game, I wanted him fired. I'm STILL not convinced he's the right man for the job long term. But fair is fair, and to continue to call McDermott a conservative coach who wants to play it safe no longer feels fair or, for that matter, accurate.

What I like about this: The Bills -- after not having scored at least 25 points for six straight weeks under Ken Dorsey -- went on to average 27 points over the final nine games and scored 30+points four times once Brady took over. The offensive players seemed to regain confidence, gain a feeling of ownership in the offense, and to visibly be having more fun. As Joe Buscaglia of The Athletic pointed out, Brady was lauded across the board from staff and players alike as being a great communicator and great at bridging the gap between coaches and players. Multiple players, including Josh Allen, loudly voiced their support for Brady at the end of the season. Things were going well enough that -- as opposed to last year, when players seemed like they couldn't wait to get away -- at the season ending press conference, Josh (and others, I believe) mentioned that they couldn't wait to "get back in the lab" and weren't ready for the season to be over. Further, Brady -- prior to his tenure in Carolina, during which he had Sam Darnold at QB and no CMC for a long stretch -- was a very hot commodity as an NFL OC after the job he did at LSU. I still believe he's a young, innovative, up-and-coming offensive thinker. What I don't like about this: The Bills did not seem to conduct a particularly thorough search for a new OC. Even if they presumed Brady would likely be the guy, I would have preferred that they took their team and interviewed a wide array of candidates. At the very least, they could have solicited ideas for improvement and personnel deployment from other great thinkers outside the building. This seems like a wasted opportunity. What I'm excited for: To see what Joe Brady's offense actually looks like. He'll have a full offseason to draw up plays, install his OWN version of the offense, and not have to remain beholden to Ken Dorsey's playbook. The unknown is always at least a little bit exciting, and right now, Joe Brady's offense -- now that this is completely his car to drive -- is unknown. I'm excited to see continued use of the Bills secondary offensive weapons -- Shakir, Kincaid, Knox, and Cook -- which already improved greatly as it is when Brady took over midseason. To-Do list for Joe Brady: - Figure out a way to get Diggs involved in the offense to the extent that he was under Dorsey. For all the things I can complain about regarding Ken Dorsey, one thing he WAS very good at was finding ways to keep Diggs involved throughout a game. Brady needs to improve in this area, "bracketed coverage taking Diggs away" or not. Good teams find ways to get their WR1 the ball regardless of how he's being covered. - Continue to find ways to get Cook involved in the passing game. - Deploy Kincaid as more of a downfield threat and seam stretcher. - Find a way to meaningfully incorporate the Bills' incoming rookie or FA WR(s). - Now that Kincaid is TE1, find ways to get/keep Dawson Knox involved in the offense, whether that means certain personnel package or specialized roles. Go Bills!

I was a person who said mid-season that the Bills should turn the page from McDermott. I can't sit here and say that I 100% changed my mind on that, or that I'm fully confident McDermott should be the guy moving forward. But I would be remiss not to mention this: From the bye week onward, and really from the publishing of the first Ty Dunne article onward, I thought McDermott improved dramatically. He fired his offensive coordinator midseason and replace him with a guy who, by most accounts, was better equipped for the job. He did a deep dive on his own defense over the bye week and came back with more aggressiveness, disguise, and variety, and the unit improved dramatically. He started coaching with more aggressiveness in his gameday decision making, routinely going for it on 4th down on his own side of the field and early in games. He started being more aggressive in his end-of-game decision making and defensive play calling. In short, he improved on almost all of the areas about which myself and others had concerns about him. On top of all of that, his players rallied around him and won five straight games to secure the two-seed, then won a playoff game and almost won another. I thought the way the players backed him up when the chips were down spoke volumes. Rallying to the two-seed after the way the season started also spoke volumes. All of this is to say that McDermott has reached a point where I no longer watch him on game day and think "he has to go. He can't get the job done. It's time to move on". From about the bye week onward, his decision making and his coaching were impressive to me, as were the results on the field. Even in the Chiefs playoff game, it's hard to say with a straight face that McDermott was the reason we lost. It's all a moot point anyway, because McDermott will be the coach in 2024. But I, for one, am no longer in the "he needs to be shown the door immediately" camp. With the way he improved the second half of the season and into the playoffs, and the way the players still seem to buy into his coaching and his culture, he has indisputably earned himself another season at the helm of the Buffalo Bills. If the Bills give up 30 and lose in the Divisional round again next season, we can re-visit the topic.