Logic

The Bills have consistently ranked in the top 10 and/or top 5 in DVOA and points scored since McDermott arrived. Babich has been a key cog in the coaching wheel the whole time. First he did great work with the safeties, as Hyde and Poyer both became All-Pro caliber players. Then he moved to linebacker, where Milano has developed into an All-Pro and Bernard just had an outstanding sophomore season. I understand ideological frustration with continuity, given that the Bills have yet to win a Super Bowl under McDermott. To complain about this specific move, though, seems like misplaced frustration. Babich is a good coach, as evidenced by his multiple interviews elsewhere, and this is a good hire.

The 1st round is gonna go one of two ways for the Bills: Either: They'll draft a WR and Bills fans everywhere will rejoice and start booking hotel rooms for Super Bowl weekend. - or - The value at WR won't be right (perhaps because a run on the position has already happened), and they'll draft a safety or defensive lineman, and Bills fans will scream obscenities on social media for five months and possibly burn the city down. I see no in-between.

I agree with the general premise of this post. I will go further and say that, in my opinion, Sean McDermott does a great job balancing analytics and "feel" and making good decisions in high pressure moments. He's routinely in the top three of the "goes for it on 4th when he should" chart, but doesn't allow himself to be a prisoner to it. There have been games when we, as fans, would prefer a little more aggression, but he trusts the way his defense is playing, so he's a touch more conservative, and it has paid off more often than not. Then, more recently -- especially in the second half of this season and in the playoffs -- he has made aggressive decisions when the analytics are 50-50, because he senses that his offense is hot or could use the jolt of confidence that such a decision sometimes gives a team. I do not think McDermott is a perfect coach. Far from it. But credit where credit is due, I think he does a great job balancing analytics and game feel and, more often than not, making intelligent and "correct" decisions.

The "tiers" guys have it right, in my opinion: On his own planet: Pat Mahomes Not far off from planet Mahomes, but needs some rings and trophies to get there: Josh Allen - - - - - - - Bona fide franchise QBs: Joe Burrow Lamar Jackson Justin Herbert Aaron Rodgers (until further notice) Matthew Stafford Very good QBs, but you could upgrade: Dak Prescott Kirk Cousins Jared Goff That's 10. Jury is still out on CJ Stroud, Jordan Love, Trevor Lawrence, and even Anthony Richardson. A big 2024 could catapult any of them into the top 10, especially (and most easily) CJ Stroud. We've seen lots of QBs have great rookie seasons and then be unable to replicate in their sophomore years, though, so I can't include nay of them in the top 10 until they have a good follow-up year. I do not currently count Tua or Hurts among my top 10 based on their play down the stretch of the 2023 season and in the playoffs.

I get that the funny and popular thing to do amongst many Bills fans is to poke fun at Leslie Frazier or act as if he isn't/wasn't a good DC. While he certainly wasn't perfect and his basic defenses and lack of disguise sometimes frustrated me, let's look at the facts: Buffalo Bills ranking in points per game allowed by year under Leslie Frazier: 2019: 2nd 2020: 14th 2021: 1st 2022: 4th Now, the Bills defense did finish 4th in points per game allowed this year, indicating that Frazier shouldn't garner all the praise for the defensive success with this roster. On the flip side, the blame that gets thrown Frazier's way for the defense turning to paper tigers once the playoffs hit, well...guess what? That happened again this year (and yes, obviously the injuries played a part). Bottom line: Leslie Frazier is one of the best and most respected teachers, leaders, and defensive minds in the NFL for a reason. I won't lose any sleep if he becomes the Dolphins' defensive coordinator, but I certainly won't be chuckling or praying for it to happen, either.

6 GWS has rings and trophies. 9 has none. How do you account for this? I am presuming you will say that it's more due to the acumen of their respective shark handlers?

I just think that having the second highest win total in the league since 2020 suggests that the Bills have a pretty darn good roster. I don't think achieving such consistent success and racking up that many wins with a subpar roster is particularly realistic. I agree that Brandon Beane needs to hit more home runs and less singles and doubles, and I think he'd tell you the same thing. For what it's worth, I think Terrel Bernard and Dalton Kincaid both showed the potential this year to be game changing players going forward. Ed Oliver had a "game changing" type of regular season this year. This year, the Bills were the AFC's 2-seed and two of their best defenders -- Milano and Bernard -- were injured for the Divisional round game against a team uniquely suited to take advantage of those absences. Had it not been for the Bills playing 4th and 5th string linebackers, who knows? I happen to believe they'd have beaten the Ravens yesterday, and I'd like their chances against the 49ers, too. Alas, injuries happen, the Chiefs are elite and continue to dog the Bills in the playoffs, and here we are. Beane is good. McDermott is good. Both need to be better. I'm not convinced that GM X off the street would be any better, though it's possible he could be. In any case, it's all nothing more than a thought exercise, because Beane and McD are here to stay for at least 2024, and likely beyond that.

I think it's simple: The Bills have the second best quarterback on planet earth. The BEST quarterback on planet earth, unfortunately, also plays in the AFC. This is why the Bills have not yet won a Super Bowl.

The only thing I'll say, and this is in response to your previous message to me as well, is: The Bills had an explosive downfield passing offense in 2020 and for chunks of 2021. It was only when opposing defenses started playing a lot of two-high coverage specifically designed to take away that type of offense (which is the dominant defensive trend in the NFL the past few seasons) that the Bills started having to learn to live underneath. It's not just the Bills, either. The Chiefs have been forced by the way opposing defenses are playing to live off the run game and short passing game, too. It's really the only way to continue to move the ball on such a defense. It's all about forcing the offense to slowly and methodically matriculate the ball down the field (Hank Stram shoutout), betting that they'll make a mistake along the way. The Bills have HAD to switch to this type of offense to stay alive. I don't think it was a conscious choice made out of conservatism. Furthermore, McDermott JUST said a few days ago in his end of season presser that the Bills need to generate more explosive plays, and that it would be a big factor in shaping their offseason from a player acquisition and scheming standpoint. In short, they WERE an explosive downfield passing offense, they HAD to switch to a shorter YAC offense largely due to how opposing defenses defend them the past couple years, it's affecting other teams, too, and lastly, the Bills are aware of it and the head coach specifically gave voice to addressing the lack of explosivity.

Honestly it was a lesson to me going forward that I should take analytics with a big grain of salt. The analytics all said our offense was top three to top five under Dorsey, but reality showed that it was broken and stale. The analytics all said our offense got worse under Brady, but reality showed that it started moving and working again, and the Bills started scoring more points and winning football games. Big grain of salt.

The move from Dorsey to Brady has to be one of the weirdest things I've ever witnessed in football. Specifically: All of the analytics favored Dorsey, but if you watched his offense in real time, you saw a lack of logical sequencing, layering, and a general lack of feel for the game. You saw an offense that got stuck in neutral too often, did illogical things, became stale for long stretches, and ultimately failed to score enough points on a consistent basis. Meanwhile, all of the analytics took a dip once Brady came aboard. Pretty much any notable measure of success from an analytics standpoint was WORSE under Brady than Dorsey. And yet, if you watched the offense under Brady as compared to Dorsey, you suddenly saw a plan, a logic, the aforementioned sequencing and layering, better organization, streamlining of the playbook, greater offensive consistency, and ultimately, more points being scored on a more consistent basis. Ken Dorsey was an analytics darling as a playcaller, but in the "real world" of football, the offense often seemed broken and basic. Joe Brady was NOT so much of an analytics darling, and analytics guys will insist that the Bills offense got "worse" under him, but in the "real world" of football, the offense suddenly seemed to work better, more often, and more consistently. Absolutely bizarre. I can't explain it, but I CAN tell you what my eyes saw very clearly: the offense seemed to clearly work better and be more productive and consistent under Joe Brady.

I just don't think the evidence on the field over the last several weeks of the regular season and the two games in the postseason match the notion that McDermott is "conservative" or wants the Bills to play a safe, no-risk offense. Once upon a time, I may have agreed with that statement. But McDermott's coaching has evolved tremendously, and his aggressiveness along with it. Everything that goes with the idea of being an aggressive (rather than conservative) coach, McDermott has been doing from midseason on. He's constantly near the top of the "goes for it on 4th down when he should" charts. He's been going for it on 4th down on his own side of the field, even early in games, quite often. He has overseen an offense that for four straight years now is near the top of the league in passing frequency. He himself said in his season ending press conference that he believes you pass to win in this league. Yes, at times he's mentioned wanting to run the ball more effectively and to stop turning the ball over. I don't think either of those qualify as "conservative" thinking, though. I think 32 out of 32 NFL head coaches want their team to run the ball effectively and to take care of the football. And as I said, there's a time I would have agreed with the "McDermott is a conservative coach" idea, but that time has passed. All the evidence on the field in recent weeks simply does not back it up any longer. He's become pretty damned aggressive in his approach. And mind you, I'm no McDermott apologist. After the Broncos game, I wanted him fired. I'm STILL not convinced he's the right man for the job long term. But fair is fair, and to continue to call McDermott a conservative coach who wants to play it safe no longer feels fair or, for that matter, accurate.

What I like about this: The Bills -- after not having scored at least 25 points for six straight weeks under Ken Dorsey -- went on to average 27 points over the final nine games and scored 30+points four times once Brady took over. The offensive players seemed to regain confidence, gain a feeling of ownership in the offense, and to visibly be having more fun. As Joe Buscaglia of The Athletic pointed out, Brady was lauded across the board from staff and players alike as being a great communicator and great at bridging the gap between coaches and players. Multiple players, including Josh Allen, loudly voiced their support for Brady at the end of the season. Things were going well enough that -- as opposed to last year, when players seemed like they couldn't wait to get away -- at the season ending press conference, Josh (and others, I believe) mentioned that they couldn't wait to "get back in the lab" and weren't ready for the season to be over. Further, Brady -- prior to his tenure in Carolina, during which he had Sam Darnold at QB and no CMC for a long stretch -- was a very hot commodity as an NFL OC after the job he did at LSU. I still believe he's a young, innovative, up-and-coming offensive thinker. What I don't like about this: The Bills did not seem to conduct a particularly thorough search for a new OC. Even if they presumed Brady would likely be the guy, I would have preferred that they took their team and interviewed a wide array of candidates. At the very least, they could have solicited ideas for improvement and personnel deployment from other great thinkers outside the building. This seems like a wasted opportunity. What I'm excited for: To see what Joe Brady's offense actually looks like. He'll have a full offseason to draw up plays, install his OWN version of the offense, and not have to remain beholden to Ken Dorsey's playbook. The unknown is always at least a little bit exciting, and right now, Joe Brady's offense -- now that this is completely his car to drive -- is unknown. I'm excited to see continued use of the Bills secondary offensive weapons -- Shakir, Kincaid, Knox, and Cook -- which already improved greatly as it is when Brady took over midseason. To-Do list for Joe Brady: - Figure out a way to get Diggs involved in the offense to the extent that he was under Dorsey. For all the things I can complain about regarding Ken Dorsey, one thing he WAS very good at was finding ways to keep Diggs involved throughout a game. Brady needs to improve in this area, "bracketed coverage taking Diggs away" or not. Good teams find ways to get their WR1 the ball regardless of how he's being covered. - Continue to find ways to get Cook involved in the passing game. - Deploy Kincaid as more of a downfield threat and seam stretcher. - Find a way to meaningfully incorporate the Bills' incoming rookie or FA WR(s). - Now that Kincaid is TE1, find ways to get/keep Dawson Knox involved in the offense, whether that means certain personnel package or specialized roles. Go Bills!

I was a person who said mid-season that the Bills should turn the page from McDermott. I can't sit here and say that I 100% changed my mind on that, or that I'm fully confident McDermott should be the guy moving forward. But I would be remiss not to mention this: From the bye week onward, and really from the publishing of the first Ty Dunne article onward, I thought McDermott improved dramatically. He fired his offensive coordinator midseason and replace him with a guy who, by most accounts, was better equipped for the job. He did a deep dive on his own defense over the bye week and came back with more aggressiveness, disguise, and variety, and the unit improved dramatically. He started coaching with more aggressiveness in his gameday decision making, routinely going for it on 4th down on his own side of the field and early in games. He started being more aggressive in his end-of-game decision making and defensive play calling. In short, he improved on almost all of the areas about which myself and others had concerns about him. On top of all of that, his players rallied around him and won five straight games to secure the two-seed, then won a playoff game and almost won another. I thought the way the players backed him up when the chips were down spoke volumes. Rallying to the two-seed after the way the season started also spoke volumes. All of this is to say that McDermott has reached a point where I no longer watch him on game day and think "he has to go. He can't get the job done. It's time to move on". From about the bye week onward, his decision making and his coaching were impressive to me, as were the results on the field. Even in the Chiefs playoff game, it's hard to say with a straight face that McDermott was the reason we lost. It's all a moot point anyway, because McDermott will be the coach in 2024. But I, for one, am no longer in the "he needs to be shown the door immediately" camp. With the way he improved the second half of the season and into the playoffs, and the way the players still seem to buy into his coaching and his culture, he has indisputably earned himself another season at the helm of the Buffalo Bills. If the Bills give up 30 and lose in the Divisional round again next season, we can re-visit the topic.

Yes. 16 games is better than 17 or 18. 6 playoff teams in each conference is better than 7. The "Super Wild Card Weekend" games are often one-sided blowouts, as you'd expect when the second and third best teams in the conference take on 9-8 squads that barely made it. The extra week per regular season (and eventually two of them) and the extra playoff team and playoff game are about one thing and one thing only: More inventory, which equals more money. These things were not added with the quality of the game or the experience of the fan in mind. They were added SOLELY to make the league more money, even if it means watering down the product itself. Mark Cuban was not wrong. The NFL is Icarus, and one day its wings will burn.

Poyer and Hyde, as a duo, represent this era of Bills football arguably more than anyone else. They were here from day one of the McDermott regime, and they've talked many times about setting the tone and helping to build the culture here. It's not just talk. By all accounts, these guys have been locker room leaders their entire time here, not to mention excellent players on the field and excellent citizens off of it. I'm sad that the Bills couldn't win a title with them, and it will be sad seeing the 2024 season kick off without one or both of them in the defensive backfield. That said, time (and salary cap limitations) wait for no man, and it's likely going to be the dawn of a new era next season. I second the notion that Hyde and Poyer belong on the list of all time great Buffalo Bills. I'll always fondly remember their contributions to this team and city. I hope to see them at Bills games in future years and to share a beer or three with them in Hammer's lot one of these days. Thank you, Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer!

The way that the youth on this team stepped up this season gives me a lot more hope going forward on both sides of the ball. On offense: Cook, Kincaid, Shakir, Torrence, and Brown all stepped up. Our offensive line looks to be a strength going forward rather than a liability. I even like what's in the pipeline behind the starters, with Ryan Van Demark at tackle and Alec Anderson at center looking like good depth and potential down-the-line starters. Going from having question marks at RB, TE1, slot WR, RG, and RT, to having all of those positions solidified represents a huge step forward for this offense. Offensive needs going forward: Add a dynamic young WR (Beane and McDermott's presser sure makes it seem like this will be a priority) and an RB2 and I'll feel really good about the offense in the immediate and long term. On defense: Ed Oliver had a breakout season (Chiefs game notwithstanding). Greg Rousseau, while not an elite top 5 Edge, is certainly a plus starter and is still young and improving. Terrel Bernard went from a GIANT question mark to looking like a potential All-Pro level linebacker. Christian Benford turned into a plus starter at cornerback, and I have faith that the Bills will be re-signing Rasul Douglas to a long term deal to remain in Buffalo. Defensive needs going forward: With not many defensive linemen under contract for 2024, the Bills will have major work to do there. Safety will be the other position that may see huge turnover. It may be the end of an era in Buffalo, as both Hyde AND Poyer may be gone. It's possible the Bills envision Rapp as a long term replacement, but I'd bet there will be two new starters at the position next season. At linebacker, I expect Milano and Bernard to be a playmaking starting duo next year, though the team will likely look to improve the depth behind them. I believe the team is set at cornerback. They'll spend their usual late round pick on a corner or bring in a UDFA there, but they're pretty well set at that position. So... Find a playmaking WR (ideally with your round 1 draft pick) and an RB2 on offense. Re-sign DaQuan Jones and, if you can afford it, Leonard Floyd on the defensive line. Fill the rest of the spots with draft picks or bargain depth. Identify and sign or draft two safeties (I have faith in McDermott on this one. Hyde and Poyer were both afterthought players when they signed here). Big offseason ahead, but hitting on some draft picks the past couple seasons and having some youngsters step up sure gives the Bills a brighter outlook for 2024 and beyond.

Right. And going into matchups against Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson with either a Klein/Dodsen or Dodsen/one-legged Bernard duo at linebacker and expecting victory is just asking an awful lot. For that matter, going into matchups against the numbers 2 and 1 scoring defenses in the league with Trent Sherfield at WR2 and expecting victory is asking for an awful lot, too. As much as it hurt in the moment to lose that game on Sunday, if one stands aside and looks at the team and the season with a reasoned, unbiased eye, one sees a team that lacked the horses to compete in the "second season", and very nearly overcame those deficiencies to make the AFCCG anyway. Time to get to work, Beane.

Well said. This sums up the way the Bills season ended in very simple terms. This season, based on the defensive injuries sustained, the lack of WR depth, and the instability at offensive coordinator, the Bills had what it took to meet condition one (make the tournament). They did not have what it took to meet condition two (have the pieces in place to compete), and also did not particularly benefit from the final factor you mentioned: luck (see Diggs drop and Sherfield drops, which also play back into "not having the pieces in place to compete"). It's as simple as that. Seeing as though the Bills seem to have coach and QB in place that will allow them to continue to make the tournament on a regular basis, what we need now is for the GM to give them the pieces to compete once there (additional offensive weaponry, better depth), and for some luck to break our way for once. One of those things is within the Bills' control, and that's what this offseason will be about.

Well thank God Kiper changed his Bills pick to a WR, because I don't know if my heart could take the 37 page thread that would've ensued if he'd mocked us a nose tackle.

It's not likely to be much fun around here until about the week before free agency. Between now and then, though?

Thanks for the post. It makes sense, though, as you say, it's hard to know how much of that was Brady doing it because it's his preference, vs how much he was doing it because he recognized the Bills just didn't have the horses at WR. McDermott stated at his end-of-season presser today "we need to create more explosive plays. That will be a factor in our player acquisition going forward". Given that Cook was giving them explosive plays in the run game and they just spent a 1st on Kincaid and have big money locked up in Knox, I can't imagine that comment referring to anything other than adding to the wide receiver room.

The "progression" of a football team is not always linear. It's often more like a roller coaster, with peaks and valleys. Take the Ravens. They're this year's number one seed and may well make the Super Bowl. Lamar was drafted the same year as Josh Allen. In 2019, they went 14-2 and lost in the Divisional round. In 2020, they went 11-5 and lost in the Divisional round. In 2021, they went 8-9 and missed the playoffs. In 2022, they went 10-7 and lost in the Wild Card round. This year, they went 13-4 and are in the AFC Championship Game. How about Peyton Manning's Colts? Once they started making the playoffs, they lost in the: Divisional round Wild Card - missed playoffs - Wild Card AFCCG Divisional round Divisional ...before finally winning the Super Bowl. The progression of a football team is not always linear. I would say that's the exception rather than the rule, actually. If your thesis is "The Bills should move on from McDermott", then fine. I espoused that very idea midseason. I can't blame you for feeling that way. But if the thesis is "there should be a linear progression to a team's ascent to a championship", I disagree entirely. That rarely happens.

I'm fairly sure I wore the wrong t-shirt. Furthermore, my phone died mid-game and I had to go plug it into charge. From that moment on, it was all downhill for the Bills. I don't know why the placement of a cell phone in a slightly different physical space in Portland, OR affected the team so strongly, but who knows how this metaphysical correlation stuff works. It just does. I accept my part in the loss. I will learn from it and be better next year.

I started to type out a reply to this and then I just thought "Not today, Satan!" and deleted it. God bless.