Logic

The Bills could add the love child of Usain Bolt and Roadrunner and Ken Dorsey would have him running 5 yard hitch routes and outs all game.

Not.

I feel like the Bills are markedly better on offense EVERY SINGLE TIME they go into hurry-up! It simplifies what defenses can do, it allows Josh more time to survey the defense pre-snap and make protection changes and audibles, and it probably means a bit more Josh and a bit less Dorsey, which we can all likely agree seems pretty appealing right about now. I understand all the talk about varying tempos, controlling the flow of the game, blah blah blah, but if you ask me, the Bills' base offense should be hurry-up no huddle unless and until opposing defenses routinely show they can stop it.

Now is not the time for logic and for reasoned analysis, my friend. Now is the time for pounding on lockers and crushing beer cans against one's cranium and shouting cliches and listening to pump-up songs and saying "LET'S F'N GOOOO" way too loudly to people who were just innocently walking by. IT'S GAME DAY, MOTHERFU*KER!!! (just kidding, do whatever you want, it's your life).

All the Bills need to do is go out and kick ass tonight. Not a "take it down to the wire" win, not a "take 5 years off the life of Bills fans" win, not a "play down to the level of our opponents" win. I'm talking a scorched earth, Josh Allen 4 TDs, Stefon Diggs 2 TDs, 41-20 ass whipping, with Kyle Allen taking snaps in the 4th quarter and Josh and Diggs joking around on the sidelines. Go do that on national TV, then do it again next week against the Jets, and the Bills will be 7-4, with a shot of much needed confidence and a big matchup looming at Philly before the bye week. "You can get it done, you can get it done. And what's more, you've GOTTA get it done!"

Yeah...I know it's not this simple, but...I'd be fine with the Bills shedding a bunch of age and salary cap from their defense in the offseason and going with a youth movement there. I think they have some nice younger building blocks/cornerstones in Ed Oliver, Groot, AJ Epenesa (if re-signed), Bernard, Milano, Benford, Dane Jackson, and Taron Johnson. And they can keep a couple "old" guys like Rasul Douglas and Daquan Jones if they want. But...I like the idea of getting younger, faster, fresher, and cheaper on defense, and re-investing some of that money into the offense instead. The Chiefs went this route, and now are in better salary cap shape than the Bills going forward (if I'm not mistaken), AND they have the better defense. It would be one thing if the Bills defense was still elite, but it's not. They're currently bottom 3 in DVOA AND they're old and beat up. Yes, I realize injuries have played a big part in their poor performance this season, but...the injury issue is just going to get worse before it gets better so long as the Bills are so old on defense. **Side note** I'm so jealous of the Chiefs' coaching situation. They have an elite offensive mind (and Hall of Famer) locked in as head coach for the long term, and one of the league's best defensive minds in Steve Spagnuolo to run the defense. And because Spags isn't a trendy young name and has already had his shot as head coach, he's not likely to get poached any time soon. Great coaching on both sides of the ball, and stability on both offense and defense because neither playcaller is going anywhere any time soon. Damn them.

Guessing Benford and Hyde don't go. They'll wanna be cautious with both. Rasul Douglas may be about to see a full game's worth of snaps. If Bernard can progress from Limited to Full tomorrow, he should be good. Otherwise, he might be down for the week, too. Diggs will be fine.

If they bring in a new offensive coordinator this offseason, I'd like it to be a fresh, new take on things. A new mind from outside the organization. Enough with the "promoting continuity" thing. I fully understand why that might seem desirable, what with not wanting Josh to have to learn a new system and new terminology and all, but...If you're canning Dorsey, it's an admission that things as they are structured now are simply not working. And if THAT'S the case, then it's time for something completely different. I won't pretend to know enough about the various candidates to be able to pick which one I'd like best, I'm just saying I'd opt for something completely new over promoting Brady or Shula. As for defensive coordinator, I think it's much more likely they'll promote a Bobby Babich or an Eric Washington. Though frankly, I'd be in favor of them bringing in a fresh new mind on defense, as well. That's less of a big deal, because you can still pick a 4-3, zone-based guy, if you don't want to have to overhaul your defensive personnel. If the GM, HC, and QB are staying, but we come to the conclusion that the team is regressing rather than progressing, then the only logical solution in my mind is a fresh start on offense and defense. Again, I'm not equipped at this moment to pick specific names, but..."promoting from within for the sake of continuity" no longer makes any sense in my opinion.

Username checks out.

Fair enough. Let's change the phrase to "late in the game when trailing", then. That's when the defense softens up a bit because it's trying to bleed the clock and prevent big plays. I think the overriding point is that when opposing defenses are playing the Bills "normally" throughout most of the game, the Bills offense is struggling. Once they soften up a bit at the end, the Bills offense comes to life. And even if you reject THAT notion -- even if you grant the benefit of the doubt and say opposing defenses are playing the Bills offense the same way throughout the entire game -- the question still needs to be asked: Why is the Bills offense not able to come to life and start having statistical success and production until they're behind on the scoreboard and reaching desperation mode? Why can't they "turn it on" in more neutral and early-game situations?

Buy: Linval Joseph. Looked amazing coming right off the couch and playing 42% of the snaps. Think he'll be a big help down the stretch. Sell: Dane Jackson. After he balled out last week, I think his stock is at an all time high. I expect him to soon lose his starting job to Rasul Douglas, and for the primary starting duo at CB to be Douglas/Benford for the stretch run. Hold: Von Miller. He's still not back to being the Von Miller of old. Every week he shows one or two flashes of that guy, though. If the Bills can find a way to get to the postseason, I think there's a chance he'll be "arriving" just in time. Following your lead, an alternative response: Buy: Tylenol and Prozac. Sell: The hotel room I booked in Vegas for Super Bowl week "Hold: My beer", say the Buffalo Bills to their fans when told "you can't frustrate us any more than you already have".

They have such a late bye week this year -- week 13, I believe? -- that I'm totally fine with them using the extra days for rest. I don't think lack of reps is what's hurting the Bills this year. At the very least, the opportunity cost of "extra rest" vs "extra reps" seems weighted toward the rest, in my opinion.

The most instructive response to this article, in my opinion, is the Tweet below. The Bills are achieving a lot of their "analytics success" on offense (EPA, DVOA, etc) in garbage time.

I agree with the notion that the Bills win the next two at home and go to Philly 7-4. Arguably, they'd need to win that game, too, to have a good chance after the bye, where they still have to play the Chiefs at Arrowhead, the Chargers on a west coast trip, the Cowboys, and the Dolphins in Miami -- not to mention the Pats, who already beat them once this season. If -- and given the way they've played lately, it's an enormous "if" -- they can find a way to win the next 3 and go into the bye week 8-4, I like their chances at playoffs. It's still possible with a Philly loss, too, but at 7-5, they could really only afford to lose one more game the rest of the year. But, of course...one week at a time. The Bills can hardly get out of their own way lately and the Broncos recently beat the Chiefs, so...this game isn't a gimme.

I'm gonna be honest with you. I have zero faith that this year's Bills would be able to string together the four good games in a row against quality opponents (three playoff games + Super Bowl) necessary to win a Lombardi. So yes, of course I'll be hoping that they make the playoffs this year. But no, unless something about this team's performance fundamentally changes in the next couple weeks, I don't see it mattering much whether they do or don't. This is the first time since 2020 that I've felt that the Bills just don't have it this year. Not that they're Super Bowl caliber and still piecing things together, not that they're an elite team who just hasn't hit their stride yet, not that they're in a midseason lull, no. None of that. Yes, it's hard to admit. Yes, it sucks. Yes, it's inexcusable based on the talent on this roster. Tough times are coming, and there will be no easy answers. I find it very doubtful that Sean McDermott will be let go, even if the Bills finish with a losing season (I don't think they will anyway). So the main question is going to be whether they make a change at offensive coordinator, and whether and to what degree they invest more meaningful resources in the offense -- namely at wide receiver. It's getting close to "hard decisions and hard discussions" time in Buffalo. Things need to change. Will they?

I haven't had the chance to watch the linked video yet because I'm at work, but... My main complaints about Ken Dorsey's offense: - Does not take advantage of the full skillsets of his personnel and put them in the best positions to succeed (see Dalton Kincaid and Deonte Harty) - Playcalls do not build off of past playcalls. Not enough logical sequencing or using past plays and tendencies to set up future plays - Run game not particularly creative or diverse - Uncreative use of pre-snap motion - Does not take advantage of pick plays often enough - Goes away from what works too frequently. If something works and you drive right down the field with it -- STICK TO IT UNTIL THEY STOP IT! - Playbook seems TOO big at times. When you have as many penalties, execution errors, and mental mistakes as the Bills offense lately, it's time to simplify - Ignores the obvious too often (like calling a shotgun play on the 1-inch line instead of a QB sneak) - Does not make creative use of Josh Allen's legs, which are one of the Bills offense's BEST weapons - Generally appears to lack the creativity and innovation of the Shannahans, Reids, McDaniels, and McVays of the world Add to all of this the fact that Dorsey does not seem to be a very good "Josh Allen whisperer" and doesn't seem particularly great at the actual COACHING part of his job, and you have...well...a pretty compelling case for a change. I fully understand that there are lots of metrics that paint the Bills as a good offense. This is a weird case where the reality of the situation does not seem to be accurately reflected in statistics. I don't think any reasonable person watching the Bills week after week would conclude that what they're doing right now on offense is working, or is putting the Bills in the best position to win football games. Something's rotten in the state of Denmark, and the statistics and analytics don't necessarily show it.

I mean this kindly and humbly, and with all sincerity: Punter is the absolute least of the Bills' worries. No punter on earth would change the Bills' record or fix their primary shortcomings this season. We can take the genetics of Ray Guy, Brian Moorman, Lionel Messi, and a kangaroo, put them in a petri dish, mix 'em up, and create a perfect Franken-punter, and it still won't fix what ails the Bills.

I agree that there are times when Josh pats the ball too much and looks tentative. No doubt about it. BUT... Josh Allen is also having the second best statistical season of his career, and may well set career best marks for completion percentage and passing TDs. In my opinion, it's the scheme and the coaching that's to blame. Not to say that Josh is without fault. There have certainly been times this season where he is the reason for the offensive struggles. Far, FAR more often, though, I blame an unimaginative scheme and receivers that aren't that open. Go watch Dolphins and Chiefs All-22 and see how absolutely, comically, ridiculously wide open their receivers are at times. The Bills offense never seems to have that. Why?

I used to feel like McDermott DID allow/promote a fun atmosphere amongst the Bills. Guys like Isaiah McKenzie, Jordan Phillips, Jordan Poyer, Tre'Davious White, and then obviously Diggs and Allen...It seemed like I was always seeing laughter and guys hanging out and having fun and dancing and goofing off. There's certainly still some of that around. We see the dancing and the silliness from time to time. But SOMETHING has changed. It's tangible. You can feel it. Maybe, as you say, it's the weight of the history of the Bills, of their own playoff losses, the crushing weight of success and expectations. But if THAT'S the case, then it's all the more reason a leadership change may be in order. It is, after all, the head coach's job to help his players handle that weight, to handle the pressure, and to overcome it and persevere. After all, the Chiefs had a long history of playoff futility of their own, and it didn't stop them. The Bengals have never won a title, but THEIR players don't seem to be crushed under a heavy weight. No easy answers. But...the X Factor certainly seems to be missing. That certain... Je ne sais quoi. It's not there. The Bills are like a Ferrari being driven by a scared octogenarian right now. You see it rolling along at 20mph on a highway and you just want to scream "GUN IT!", but instead, the hazard lights are blinking and the driver is clutching the wheel, and other cars are zooming past and leaving it in the dust. Depressing.

Yeah, it's interesting. This hadn't really occurred to me until just now, but...the personality and demeanor of the head coach seem to be fundamentally at odds with those of its best players. What I mean is that a team should take on the personality of its leader(s). In our case, our team lives and dies by Josh Allen and, to a lesser extent, Stefon Diggs. Those are fun-loving, silly, swaggy, confident guys. Sean McDermott, on the other hand? He's buttoned up, conservative, lots of cliches and coach speak, lots of "let's play smart, complementary football", "let's establish the running game", "lets get into a rhythm", etc, etc...His general personality and coaching style do not scream "fun and confidence and letting it all hang out there and leaving it all on the field". If a team takes on the personality of its leader, I fear that our team -- instead of taking on the personality of its ON-field leaders -- has taken on the personality of its OFF-field leader, Sean McDermott. And that personality, as I just mentioned, is buttoned up, conservative, etc etc. Look at the Bengals. They follow Joe Cool's lead, and it shows. Look at the Chiefs. They follow Mahomes' fearlessness, and it shows. But if I look at the Bills? I see a team who is more McDermott than Allen, and that doesn't seem like a good thing any more. I used to associate Sean McDermott with high character, discipline, and toughness. Now I associate him with conservativeness, stubbornness, and wilting in big moments. I don't know what coaching candidate would come in and re-instill a sense of fun, fearlessness, aggressiveness, and swagger in this team, but it does seem to be what's needed. That's what's so difficult: by standard measurements and analytics and point differential and all that, the Bills are a good football team! Buy going by the intangibles, the gut feel, the X factor, the extra SOMETHING that's needed to win a championship...this team just doesn't seem to have it. In truth, it was probably all over for this version of the Bills the moment 13 seconds happened, and we're all -- fans, coaches, players, everyone -- just not willing to admit it. Until we do, and until we flip the page to a fresh, new chapter, I fear we're just in a slow, prolonged decline.

I wish that I didn't agree with this post, but I do. If I look at this team and am completely honest with myself, I have to acknowledge that is just seems too flawed to win a championship this season. These Bills are simply too inconsistent from game to game. Even if they get into the playoffs, does anyone HONESTLY have faith they can string together the four good games (playoffs + Super Bowl) necessary to hoist a Lombardi? They can fight and claw their way into the playoffs, but does anyone really have any faith that the Bills team we saw last night won't rear its ugly head once there and be eliminated immediately anyway? Like you, I have felt the past few years that the Bills were legitimate Super Bowl contenders just going through midseason slumps. That they'd right the ship and make the playoffs and contend for a title. This year? I don't feel that way. I feel like they're just a pretty average football team. Capable of being the best team in the league any given week, but also capable of being confoundingly vanilla, unimaginative, uninspired, and lackluster. I, too, have begun to wonder if what plagues this team is intangible. If they have simply stopped having fun and stopped having swag and stopped believing they can win. You look at the swagger of a team like the Bengals -- or even the post-McDaniels Raiders yesterday -- and then you look at our team. When was the last time we displayed that type of confidence? When was the last time our team looked from whistle to whistle like it was having fun and playing for each other and believing in each other? Something's off, and the thing that makes me saddest of all is that I can't easily put my finger on what it is. There is no easy fix here. No "oh, just do this and all will be well" solution. I don't know how to fix these Bills. All I know is that the 2023 Buffalo Bills do not look like Super Bowl contenders, and that sucks.

This one's simple to me: Groot WAS on the trajectory toward dominance that we all expected this season until he hurt his foot. Hasn't looked the same since. Furthermore, since Von came back, Groot has been on the field less. Now, in all likelihood, Groot's reduced pass rushing effectiveness as a result of his injury is likely also to blame for his reduced snap count. BUT...if he returns to form and continues to cede snaps to Von Miller -- who does not yet look to be back to his old self -- I may become a bit concerned. I love having Floyd and Miller, but I don't want our young, blossoming stud to have his growth stunted by losing too many snaps to guys that are in the back nine of their careers. I think Groot is already a good NFL Edge with the potential and with all the needed tools to become a perennial top 10 guy. His biggest enemies right now are his own health and the veterans in front of him. Also, I know we're all sick of hearing this after the Tremaine Edmunds years, but...Groot is still just 23 years old, and this is only his fourth year playing defensive end EVER. I mean across high school, college, and the pros. Crazy to think about.

I posted this in another thread, but I thought this specific notion was worthy of its own discussion. Perhaps I'm wrong and this is just a LAMP post, I don't know. Anyway... The biggest and most frustrating issue to me this whole season is that the Bills offense is Jekyll and Hyde. If it was ONLY ever bad and ineffective, then it would be easy to say "fire the play caller". But that's not the case, and that's what makes the issue so confounding. Some weeks, they are absolute killers. They have shown that they can be lethally effective, just as they are constructed now, WITH this playbook and this playcaller. Then other weeks, they are meek little lambs. There's no rhythm, no variety, the playcalls don't build off of each other or show any semblance of creativity or logical sequencing or forethought. Some drives, they spread things out, use tempo and motion, get to the line quickly, get the short game and Josh's legs working, and attack the defense until it looks helpless to stop them. Other drives, they come out in static formations, use very little tempo or motion, get to the line too late, force the intermediate and long game, and look slow and timid and reactive, helpless against whatever the defense throws at them. Sometimes, Josh looks confident, certain, accurate, and makes quick decisions. Other times, he looks tentative, uncertain, pats the ball too long, and doesn't seem to know what to do with it. Why do they vacillate between these extremes? How can they look so different from game to game, even from drive to drive? Why can they not seem to stick with the good and throw out the bad? THIS is the key issue with this team this season -- its Jekyll and Hyde offense. Until they figure it out, their season is going nowhere fast. Can anyone explain this phenomenon? Is there something defenses are doing differently from game to game or drive to drive to cause this bizarre disparity in effectiveness? It's extremely confounding to watch, and I am at a total loss to explain it.

The issue to me is that the Bills offense is Jekyll and Hyde. Some weeks, they are absolute killers. They have shown that they can be lethally effective, just as they are constructed now, WITH this playbook and this playcaller. Then other weeks, they are meek little lambs. There's no rhythm, no variety, the playcalls don't build off of each other or show any semblance of creativity or logical sequencing or forethought. Some drives, they spread things out, use tempo and motion, get to the line quickly, get the short game and Josh's legs working, and attack the defense until it looks helpless to stop them. Other drives, they come out in static formations, use very little tempo or motion, get to the line too late, force the intermediate and long game, and look slow and timid and reactive, helpless against whatever the defense throws at them. From game to game, and from drive to drive, they vacillate between these two extremes. Why?