Logic

I suggest reading the entire article. What Sharp eludes to in it is not simply "running it back" from 2020. He goes into greater detail as to what exactly he means.

I suggest you actually read the article.

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/sean-mcdermott-buffalo-bills-ken-dorsey/ A tiger cannot change his stripes. Ultimately, neither can Sean McDermott. The 2020 Bills came so close to winning it all. Their offense was nearly unstoppable. It didn’t resemble anything Buffalo had seen in decades. And it was the first time they made it to the AFC Title game since 1993. But instead of running it back with minor tweaks, McDermott said in his post-season press conference that he wanted to “start over” and do so by “running the ball better.” The direction of the Bills has been a downward spiral ever since that fateful day. Want to know why that 2020 season seems so different and magical than what the Bills have seen since, particularly in recent years? Because that was the only year McDermott truly took a step back from the offense and let someone else give it a spin with full impunity. As I’ll detail below, that was OC Brian Daboll’s ticket to ride anything at the park. Super Bowl or bust. But if it busts, regardless of whether it got *this close* to a Super Bowl, the fun is over. Back to basics. And since that AFC Championship loss, the blame from the top has gone everywhere: First, it was Daboll. He left after 2021. Then it was defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier. He left after 2022. Now it is Ken Dorsey, who was fired at the midpoint of this 2023 season. Ironically, Dorsey’s firing came after a home loss to the Broncos that was both predictable and ultimately the fault of the head coach.... ------------------------ That's just the beginning of the article, but I highly suggest reading the whole thing. Yikes.

Funnily enough, I was thinking the opposite. I've been thinking that more of an Air Coryell style, with deep and intermediate play-action built off of a potent running game, is the best way to harness Josh's powers. It's weird that the worst year to date for Josh throwing interceptions also happens to be his BEST year to date for completion percentage. Obviously, some of the "dink and dunk" and "playing it safe" has been due to opposing defenses playing lots of two-high coverage, but...I'd like to see the return of "bombs away" Josh. Not that west coast offense CAN'T be an aggressive downfield passing offense -- Andy Reid's offense is based in west coast principles and clearly the Chiefs don't usually have issues with passing production -- but it's not normally the first thing I think of what that system. Josh is great off of playaction, he's great intermediate and deep, and he has maybe the strongest arm in NFL history. I'd like to see whatever system he's in next feature lots of pocket movement, designed rollouts, and aggressive downfield passing. I'd like it to be a system that de-emphasizes rocket science level thinking and coordination between the QB and receivers, as Dorsey's offense seemed to, and emphasizes letting the players play fast and attack and not think quite so damn much.

1.) Not all turnovers are created equally. As Dan Orlovsky pointed out, Josh has three truly egregious interceptions on the year. He also has multiple interceptions that were tipped at the line or bounced off of his receivers' hands. 2.) As Dan Orlovsky ALSO pointed out, the Bills offense has become super static, basic, and easy for defenses to gameplan against. Josh Allen is the type of player who, when there's nothing there, tries a bit too hard at times to make something out of nothing. 3.) The entire offensive cast of players has been playing sloppy football, dropping catchable passes, and ending up in the wrong place on pass patterns at times. To me, the ongoing complete offensive dysfunction and sloppiness almost certainly points to a failure in coaching. All of these points lead me to this: I think that the dismissal of Ken Dorsey may lead to less turnovers from Josh Allen, and I think it will end up being a non-issue. If Brady is no great improvement, then I expect whoever is next at OC -- presuming he's worth his salt -- to lead to a smarter and less turnover-prone Josh Allen. Lastly, REGARDLESS of who his OC is, Josh Allen WILL always be a gunslinger, he will likely ALWAYS have a decent amount of turnovers, but the good will likely almost always outweigh the bad. You take the bad plays with the super-human ones, because you can't have the latter without occasionally having the former. Shooters shoot.

Great post. Thanks. I will only say that I, too, am not in favor of firing Beane. I AM in favor of firing McDermott (at season's end, assuming no turnaround resulting in playoffs). If you think that Beane is a good GM, as I do, then letting him pick his own head coach for the first time is appealing. I understand what you're saying about he and McDermott being a package deal, and maybe that's the case, but we have no way of knowing. Beane just signed an extension, has stated he loves working for the Pegulas, and presumably his family is settled in Buffalo. It's hard for me to imagine him being so tied to McDermott that it's an "if he goes, I go" situation. Personally, at this point I think my preferred outcome would be Beane staying, but the entire coaching staff being cleared out and a new one being hired.

By firing Sean McDermott, the Bills would be moving on from a conservative, buttoned up, defensive minded head coach who preaches mental toughness, discipline, and playing complimentary football, and who is possibly a bit too serious and miserly to connect with guys like Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs... ...and replacing him with... Well...

Correct. Was a defensive coach on that Redskins staff that had Shanahan, McVay, McDaniels, and LaFleur. Is currently running a successful offense with what most would agree are a lot less talented parts than what the Bills have. I think either Ben Johnson or Slowik would be the logical choices if the Bills want to go with an offensive guy, which they should.

Not sure if anyone has mentioned him yet, but: Bobby Slowik, OC for the Houston Texans. The latest coach from the Shanahan, McVay, McDaniels, LaFleur group. Just 36 years old. If he can do what he's currently doing with a rookie QB and Noah Brown and Tank Dell as his receivers, imagine what he can do with Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, and Dalton Kincaid. Sure, he'd be an unknown as a head coach, but I'd rather take a swing on someone that can maximize Josh's talent than go with some stale re-tread. Things have worked pretty well for coaches from this coaching tree lately. And as for Slowik specifically, the proof is in the pudding with the explosive Texans offense.

I think the Bills are in a win/win right now as far as offensive coordinator is concerned. Either Joe Brady turns out to be great and creative and a big improvement over Ken Dorsey, in which case the Bills can keep him as OC and have continuity in the playbook and system and a guy who's already been working with Josh, but a better teacher/coach/playcaller running the offense. - OR - Brady proves not to be the guy, and the Bills can go out and find an OC this offseason (assuming they're not also looking for a new HC) that can start fresh and bring completely new ideas to the offense and hopefully reinvigorate Josh and everyone else. Either way, I'm so relieved that Dorsey is gone. Whether or not McDermott follows him out the door remains to be seen, but hopefully we can all at least agree that the Dorsey move needed to be made, and provides a breath of fresh air to a team direly in need of it.

Sorry. I should have said: I do not believe that anything physical is to blame for Josh Allen's shortcomings this year. I believe there have been two primary problems with him: The main one is his brain. The second one is the coaching he has (or has not) received. I do not believe that his shoulder is significantly hindering his performance in any meaningful way. Fix the QB's head, and you'll fix the QB. The shoulder ain't it.

You said it perfectly. Nothing more to be added. Sometimes, it's just time for a fresh start. It feels like the Bills and McDermott have reached that point. Let McD go turn around another franchise, like the Panthers. Let the Bills be re-invigorated by a new coaching staff. It's time. It's what's best for both parties.

No.

I think people just find the notion that this Bills team -- which has looked uniformly good in probably two games out of ten this season -- is suddenly going to pull such a 180 that they are able to go 5-2 in a stretch that includes road games against the Chiefs, Eagles, Chargers, and Dolphins, and home games against the Jets and Pats (who already beat the Bills) and Dallas (who looks legit). I'm an eternal optimist, and even I look at the remaining schedule, the way the team has played this year, and think to myself: If they go 5-2 the rest of the way and make the playoffs, it will be an absolute miracle. Besides, how often has a midseason offensive coordinator change been the type of spark for a team that ignites such a notable turnaround in fortunes? Personally, I see 8-9 or 9-8 and a bitterly divided and depressed Bills fan base when Pegula announces McDermott will remain head coach in 2024. I can only hope that he brings an a really high quality OC if that happens, otherwise my excitement for next year will be completely shot.

FIRE BRADY!!! (sorry...partly I'm trying to get a head start, but also I just don't like guys named Brady)

I don't disagree that the players were the primary problem last night...but whose job is it to get those players ready? When it's not just one player having issues with execution, ball security, and sloppiness...when it's pretty much every player on offense...that points to one thing, in my opinion: Coaching. Guys like Cook and Diggs and Allen didn't all just suddenly become worse players from last year to this year. Their trend of regression that begin when Daboll left and continues now points, again, to coaching. When an entire offense worth of players is failing and committing the same errors week after week, the coach in charge of that offense is not doing a good enough job.

This is it to me in a nutshell. It's not that Dorey had an awful playbook or didn't call a lot of plays that should've worked, but which Allen (and/or others) did not execute properly. It's that it's DORSEY'S JOB to coach Allen to see those things. It's DORSEY'S JOB to have the players prepared and executing well. For whatever complaints anyone has about his actual playcalling -- and I have many gripes, from poor understanding of game flow and logical play sequencing to misuse of personnel to abandoning what's working -- it's his actual COACHING of the players, the preparation and execution, that was his major weakness and his downfall. I defended Dorsey for a long time. But one can only witness so many consecutive weeks of unprepared/sloppy play, missed assignments, two receivers winding up in the same spot on the field, and lack of rhythm before saying "enough is enough". Analytics and EPA and DVOA be damned. Anyone with a set of eyeballs could see it just wasn't working for Dorsey. He failed in too many areas to think things were going to significantly improve. And worst of all, the MOST IMPORTANT PLAYER on the team is regressing and looking lost and reckless and depressed. This move needed to happen.

Well said. To add to what you just said: If your calling card as a head coach is mental toughness, attention to detail, and disciplined football, and your team is no longer ticking any of those boxes....what are you offering, exactly? If you're a defensive mind who -- when given the shot as the de facto defensive boss -- doesn't get the job done on defense (and yes, I know there have been an unreal amount of key injures), then what are you offering, exactly? I have always been a McDermott defender, but my gut and my eyeballs (not to mention the look on Josh Allen's face most games) tell me it's time for a fresh start.

Fair enough. I'll ask it again at the end of the season then, and we can compare results.

I'm trying to get a feel for where Bills fans stand on this issue this morning. Simple Yes or No question.

My best guess: 1.) Josh has the weight of the world on his shoulders. From 13 seconds, to a massive extension and commercials and the cover of Madden, to being Super Bowl favorites last year and all that happened, to this season. I don't think that people can imagine what the type of adulation and hero worship that Bills fans foist on Allen can do to a person. 2.) With the sky high expectations mentioned above, McDermott's coaching style, and the offense not gelling under Dorsey, I think Josh (and other players) have stopped having fun. And the worse things have gotten this season, the more it's snowballed. They all feel tremendous pressure to get it right, and the more they have continued NOT to get it right, the more the "not having fun, trying too hard" effect has snowballed and built on itself. The bottom line is this: Firing Dorsey was a good and necessary first step. Eliminate a variable. Put the crosshairs solely on the head coach. But in all likelihood, only one thing will fully save Josh Allen and restore the fun-loving, free-wheeling player (and team) we all miss seeing: A fresh start. A new chapter. Close the books on the Sean McDermott era, on 13 seconds, on all of it. A new head coach, a completely new coaching staff. Preferably a young, innovative, upbeat offensive mind who can re-spark the passion in this team that it appears to direly need. I have always defended Sean McDermott, and I still doubt that he actually gets let go this offseason, but frankly, I've reached the point where I feel that it's what's needed. It's not that he's a bad coach, it's not that he's entirely at fault for everything that happened. It's just....it's time. It's time for a fresh start.

That's true, but with a competent OC in the booth last night, it would have never come down to the field goal at the end anyway.

Good. At least SOMETHING good came from this loss. I defended Dorsey for a long time, but it became wildly clear over the past few weeks that he needed to go. He just didn't have a feel for game flow, sequencing, or logical play-calling AT ALL. Last night was the final straw. Now the Bills have a seven game audition for Joe Brady, and then hopefully they hire a bright, young, innovative OC in the offseason, since I doubt McD is getting the ax.

It seems pretty simple: While not TECHNICALLY certain, a loss tonight would likely mean the end of the Bills' playoff chances. Dropping to 5-5, with games remaining against the Chiefs, Cowboys, Chargers, Eagles, and Dolphins, not to mention the Jets and Pats who have both already beaten them...it's hard to see how the Bills could lose more than two games the rest of the way and have any kind of shot at playoffs, and even 10-7 might not get it done with how stacked the AFC is. It doesn't matter, of course, because the Bills are gonna win tonight. But if somehow, some way, they don't? Stick a fork in 'em, they're done.