oldmanfan

I do not see any circumstance where Beane gives up a first round pick in 2020.

Beane is forcing competition everywhere on the offensive side of the ball except for Allen and Morse.

I don't know what your problem is.

He broke his fibula. The fibula is the small bone in the leg that has absolutely no weight bearing function. It is a very easy injury to heal from, so Milano should be just fine. Not that I'm against a LB; if they could get that Allen kid I'd run to the podium.

Ok guys, I'm am not a cardiologist, but as an anatomist and physiologist I teach the basic science stuff to those who become cardiologists. So I'd like to think I bring a little credibility to this discussion. First, I cannot find any information anywhere about the exact nature of his pre-existing heart condition, whether it is electrical in nature, or some kind of cardiomyopathy, valve, or whatever. All I have read is that at the combine is was deemed low risk and thus he was cleared to work out. Second, cardiologists are pretty smart people, so I am sure any team in the NFL interested in the kid would have a team of smart cardiologists that are more than capable of assessing him. Third, comparisons, to someone like Lawson, where the decisions was not whether he had a problem but what was the best way to treat it, and not comparable. So it's pretty simple: have your docs assess the kid, get their data, then make the call. To say you would take him off your board completely without adequate information is just silly.

1. Have Allen continue his development 2. Have Daboll with our new O line coach put in a scheme that fits the new guys up front, thus allowing our running game to be resurrected and thus give our young QB time to throw 3. Draft Oliver at 9, or Williams if through some miracle he is there at 9. And with this expect our young MLB to continue to progress. You want to beat Brady to need pressure up the middle; a young DT that can do that along with Edmunds blitzing should help there.

In no specific order: Rauch Ringo Bullough Stephenson Ramsey Williams Ryan Jauron

Lines.

Braxton at FB before Gash or Mueller Shaw is on the list

Way too many guys listed at positions they didn't play. Omissions: Harry Jacobs at MLB, Tony Greene at FS. Jerry Butler at WR. When I wake up I'll list some more.

I guess it depends on your definition of blue chip. I think this draft is deep in DL talent and we will get a really good addition to the D line at 9.

Bingo. It will be my greatest one forever.

You keep confusing singular events with cumulative events. The probability of a single coin flip being heads is 50%. Anytime you flip one. The probability of getting all heads in 7 flips is 0.5 to the 7th power. Anyone who has taken basic stats knows this, or should. The reason I chose 7 is your claim that you have the same chance of 7 draft picks busting as you do one. With your logic if I flip a coin 100 times the probability of 100 heads is the same as one coin flip giving me one heads. That is patently absurd.

I I meant his drafts throughout his tenure, not just '86.

This is basic stats. Claiming you have the same chance of missing 7 draft picks (or hitting all heads if we assume it's a binary choice) is the same as one pick or one coin flip) is simply wrong. The former has a probability of 0.78% and the latter 50%. Also draft picks and their subsequent performance are not binary in nature. You could have a star, an average player, a guy that gets cut, and everything in between.

GM in 86. Drafted Thurman, Conlan and other mainstays. And I believe was instrumental in getting Kelly here.

I'm not making the claim you are. I'm only stating what Polian said years ago. Nah. He was a wizard back in the day. Maybe more recently. I just know back in the day he'd laugh any time it was brought up.

Basic statistics. Each flip is 0.5 (head or tail) to the power of the number of flips. 0.5 to the 7th power is 0.78%.

Your first statement is unsubstantiated.

The probability of getting 7 heads from 7 coin flips is 0.5 to the seventh power. Way less than 50%. 0.78% to be precise.

You don't run an NFL team either. I consider Bill Polian to be one of the best GMs in history. And he would laugh when the concept of the draft chart came up. I'll go with Bill

The argument involves a single vs. cumulative effect. Any time you flip a coin, or make a draft pick, as a single event it's heads or tails, success or bust. But if you flip 10 times or make ten picks statistics say you will average things out and it will be unlikely you get all heads or tails, or that all players are success or failure. It's a good argument to acquire more picks.

You just want a kid like that to succeed.

So taking gender out of the equation, you have someone here who certainly has the education in statistical methods to offer a different perspective on things. I have said many times in this board that stats are misused constantly by not only posters but the media. So she brings a fresh approach, like this draft article. She uses modeling to try and project picks. I have only seen her a couple times on TV, but her draft article takes an interesting slant. So why is she not that predictive of who wins a game, overall records (assuming she's not, which is itself an estimate)? Maybe it's because of the complexity of an NFL game, and the huge number of variables that can affect performance. Which makes statitical analysis very difficult.

Proving my point