oldmanfan

For the past 59 years I've gone into each season optimistic (even as a 5 year old that first year). I have a hard time seeing them get to 10 wins (given they already have two losses penciled in with the Pats, who as long as the y have Brady and Belichick I'll continue to write off), but anything's possible! I think a 9-7 record and playoff appearance is in the cards.

I would equate precision with the football term "ball placement". Putting it on a specific spot with each throw. I did a mini-Transplant analysis for two of Allen's games last year. And there were a few throws that were just God awful- way off target. Most were certainly catchable, but if the ball had been put a little farther out front, or a little closer to the sideline, it would have resulted in more success. I've seen Allen quoted this offseason on having to improve his ball placement and I would concur. You used the word consistency, and I certainly agree there. What I'm hoping to see is for him to make quicker reads, find the open guy faster and get the ball there faster. Little more touch on his short throws. Mostly what young QBs generally go through.

Well, not really. But it's not worth the effort arguing the point. The main thing that Transplant and at least one other person here has shown by grading every throw Allen made is that the accuracy thing is overblown.

Well, I disagree. As Transplant has shown Allen's accuracy was good. But being more precise would make a difference between having a guy reach back a bit for the ball and be down there vs. putting it out front where he gains another ten yards because he runs away from contact. But I do think we agree on his potential, and I understand it's a nuanced thing.

I'm sorry you don't care to be educated about precision vs. accuracy as they are, in fact, different and speak to where Allen can improve. As for completion percentage, I agree it's important as a team statistic. Not so much as a barometer for QB performance.

I met a bunch of AFL guys when I was a kid. The team had a basketball team in the off-season that played charity games, and my dad always reffed the one at Cardinal O'Hara. So I'd hang out in the locker room with guys like Lamonica, Al Bemiller, Stew Barber, Paul Costa, Butch Byrd, Ernie Warlick. All great guys.

To each his own

I don't car what Denver fans think, I don't care what Chiefs fans think, and I don't understand why the mods allow a Chiefs fan to come on here and constantly post troll junk.

My heart can't take all this at my advanced age....

Not me!!

That is just awful. Prayers for the young man.

This is an interesting observation; I'm going to try and find the original article. As for whether teams could mandate genetic testing, my wife served on the committee back in the 90's to advise the Clinton administration on genetic testing, and she was at the White House when the act was signed prohibiting discrimination through genetic testing. The issues they had to grapple with centered around how insurance companies and employers would use or misuse genetic testing info to discriminate against folks. I suspect that would apply to testing football players as well.

Because rookies should just walk in and be perfect

People seem to forget that Kim is a local girl. No way she moves the team away from WNY.

Ahem. They should focus on other parts of the team vs. the DBs? You mean like brining in six new O linemen this off season? Or two new WRs and several new TEs. Or drafting a new DT in round 1? Or drafting their leaders on O and D in round 1 last year? Just because you think your opinion is the be all and end all does not mean they haven't addressed other areas of the team outside of the DB. In fact, they have been diligent especially on the O side doing just that.

It is undoubtedly frustrating at times to be a BIlls fan. But I try to remain optimistic each year. I think the only times I can recall going into seasons knowing It as going to be terrible was the era from around '68-'72 when we had coaches who had no clue like John Rauch (using OJ as a decoy!!) and Harvey Johnson, QBs like Dan Darraugh, Marlin Briscoe, James Harris,. Those years were very difficult to be a fan to be sure; much, much more difficult than today. And then of course the Kay Stephenson/Hank Bullough, Bruce Matheson years - another lovely time in Bills history. This year you have a young promising QB, promising guys on defense, a revamped O line, et. So I honestly don't get the negativity in some quarters. Sure, it might not work out. But I'm forced to conclude it's either some kind of psychological defense mechanism to avoid being disappointed again this coming year, or folks just trying to be snarky for the purpose of being so. And yes, those who are claiming the opposite, that we're a Super Bowl contender, the ones that dig through the manure pile because there has to be a pony under there can be just as difficult to deal with. Ultimately we all have opinions, and the fun of this place is to express those and debate those. Just two things I wish folks would keep in mind: 1. opinions are not facts, and as such don't express you opinions as such, and 2. try to be consistent and use some form of logical framework in postings. Some folks will say that black is white, and when you explain why it isn't they then start talking about how the sky is blue. State an opinion, base it in some logical framework, and then stand behind it.

Depends on the particular stat and how it's calculated.

This is why I am generally skeptical of the statistical analyses promoted by many. I have a research background and when planning studies you decide what question you want to ask, determine variables that can be controlled so you can measure between control and experimental groups, and define sample sizes and statistical methods that are appropriate for data analysis. What I tend to see with info such as referred to in the story is you can have an opinion, then choose statistics to buttress your opinion. The term used for the latter is confirmation bias and it's rampant in studies. When I review manuscripts for publication I reject 80-90% of them because of inappropriate study design and thus inaccurate conclusions.

First, your quote: Are you trying to discredit such a simple concept because it doesn’t yield the result you want it to? . So yes you did say I'm looking for a result. Yield the result you want it to. Your words. Second if you look at the denominator for the adjusted completion percentage it has things like throwaways, drops, and such. If you have WRs that can't get open as well as the next team, or a line that doesn't protect as well, then the denominator increases and the percentage decreases. And those are more on different parts of the offense other than the QB. So you could have a QB that has to throw the ball away more because of poor line play, and his ACP would be lower. In such a case the QB is making the smart play but his stat suffers. Thus the ACP to me may have usefulness as a team stat, but not a QB stat.

True. The question though is whether a stat is worth comparing. No. I think I understand what goes into the calculation. And for me some of the variables are more team related vs. QB related which is why I don't give it much relevance to assessing QBs. And quit telling me I'm looking for a specific result. I'm not. I would argue it's the opposite.

But it's not an equal comparison because there are a lot of variables between teams that in turn can affect the stat you're looking at, independent of the QBs actual play. I have had graduate level course work in stats. If you have as well then let's have an intelligent discourse on this. The fact that you have not responded to the difficulties with this stat despite my pointing them out several times indicates you don't understand statistical analysis. Prove to me you do and we can talk.

Yes I am. I don't think you understand the basis of statistical analysis correctly. You claimed I am using my argument to say everything is fine with Allen. Which I never said, and in fact I pointed out areas he needs to improve. You are the one being disingenuous here.

The questio was how does one know the value of adjusted completion rate if you don't compare between individuals. And my answer is simple: if the star has limited value if any, as I would suggest, then comparisons are meaningless. Yiu are correct that stats give you a sense of trends in a group and a basis for comparison, but when you oversimplify a stat and don't take into account the myriad of variables that affects said statistic then it becomes of little consequence. Have you ever designed a study? Figuring out and controlling variables is one of the key things you have to do before determining the value of what you're going to measure

I don't think adjusted completion rate is particularly useful to assess a QB. There are many variables such as protection that can lead to hurried throws, throwaways etc. that have nothing to do with a QBs performance. In fact, if you have a QB that throws it away instead of taking a sack his adjusted rate could be lower for doing the right thing. Where did I say it's fine? I have indicated where Allen needs to improve. And I can do that watching him without the benefit of an overinflated poorly constructed statistic.

Explain to me how comparing a first year QBs stats to a HOF QB with vastly more experience, with different receivers, different O line, coaching and all the other variables makes sense. I can watch Allen on the Bills last year, and I watched every play over his last three games, and I can tell you what he needs. He needs to make his reads more quickly, to get the game to slow down. He needs to improve his ball placement (which is more precision than accuracy) especially on shorter throws. He needs to improve his footwork throwing to the right. He needs better receivers and better protection. Prett much all these are what you'd expect from a young QB. Comparing him to a HOFer as if he should be at that level today is pointless and achieves nothing.